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12.8万亿天量提前还贷!老百姓扛不住,楼市救市这次真的要来了?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-01 10:40
你以为"提前还贷"只是个理财小动作? 说起中国人买房,大家脑子里第一反应肯定是"背房贷",几十年按揭,咬牙攒首付,然后盼着哪天房价翻倍,财富自由。 可到了2025年,这一套"财富剧本"突然被现实撕碎,不是大家还不起房贷,而是大家都抢着提前还清! 四年之间,提前还掉的房贷高达12.8万亿,银行的钱袋子眼看着"瘦身",而购房者却一点没轻松。 背后这场看不见的资金流动,到底是谁在赢,谁在输?是政策在救市,还是市场在自救? 以前房贷余额年年涨,买房的人越来越多,银行的生意越做越大。 自2021年末起,全国个人住房贷款余额竟"急转直下"。初始为38.32万亿,至2025年二季度末,已降至37.74万亿。 这四年时间,全国新房销售额加起来有40万亿,按照六成房贷比例,理论上得新增24万亿贷款,再算上二手房交易,净增至少也有28万亿。 可余额不升反降,唯一能解释的办法,就是提前还贷成了大趋势。其实这还不是凭空猜测,数据说话:2019年和2020年,房贷新增7.57万亿,和理论推算的 7.75万亿几乎一模一样。 说明在那会儿,大家都是老老实实按揭还款。 可眼下,提前还贷成了"全国运动",12.8万亿的规模,已经超过了中国一年 ...
12.8万亿天量提前还贷!老百姓扛不住,楼市救市,这次真的要来了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-29 13:14
去四年,全国房贷余额居然不增反降,明明卖掉了40多万亿的新房,可银行里的房贷本金却少了。这不是表面上的数字游戏,而是一场已经悄然改变金融生 态的真实风暴。老百姓用实际行动交出了答案——提前还贷12.8万亿。 这组数字背后,是家庭资产负债表的重构,是银行利润模型的崩塌,更是政策底与市场底的博弈。面对这场罕见的"逆周期现象",两个问题变得格外刺眼: 老百姓为什么在资金紧张的当下选择提前还贷?救市政策是否真的会如期而至? 2021年末,全国个人房贷余额达到38.32万亿元,是历史上的高点。到2025年二季度末,这一数字却降到了37.74万亿元。哪怕是2024年末,也只有37.68万亿 元,始终没有回到那一年的峰值。 几年前的房贷利率普遍在5%以上,有的甚至超过6%。到了2024、2025年,经过两轮主动下调,很多人的房贷利率已经降到了3.5%甚至更低。可即便如此, 很多人还是选择提前还款。 道理其实很简单:在收入预期变弱、房价下行的周期里,提前还贷等于锁定确定收益。每年少交的利息,就是稳稳的保底利润。在这个讲究"稳妥"的时代, 这种选择看起来更踏实。 这四年里,全国新房销售额年年都在10万亿级别:2022年为13. ...
长沙银行半年报:逾期贷款 个贷不良率“双增” 机构持股比例下滑
Xi Niu Cai Jing· 2025-09-05 08:18
Core Viewpoint - Changsha Bank's 2025 semi-annual report indicates a steady growth in total assets and liabilities, but faces challenges in profitability and asset quality due to narrowing net interest margins and rising non-performing loans [2][3]. Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, total assets reached 1,247.385 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 13.72% - Total liabilities amounted to 1,165.090 billion RMB, up 13.58% year-on-year - Total loans stood at 602.692 billion RMB, reflecting a 12.95% increase year-on-year - Total deposits were 759.184 billion RMB, growing by 11.23% year-on-year - For the first half of 2025, operating income was 13.249 billion RMB, a 1.59% increase year-on-year - Net profit reached 4.329 billion RMB, up 5.05% year-on-year [2][4]. Asset Quality - As of June 30, 2025, non-performing loan balance was 7.046 billion RMB, an increase of 0.662 billion RMB from the end of the previous year - Non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.17%, with a slight decrease of 1 basis point from the previous quarter - Personal loan non-performing ratio increased significantly to 2.20%, up 33 basis points from the end of the previous year - Overdue loan balance was 13.405 billion RMB, a substantial increase of 36.02% from the end of the previous year [3][6]. Capital Adequacy - Capital adequacy ratios for Changsha Bank showed a slight decline compared to the end of the previous year, but remained compliant with regulatory standards [3]. Institutional Shareholding - As of June 30, 2025, the proportion of institutional shareholders who increased or newly entered their holdings rose by 0.82%, while those who reduced or exited their holdings decreased by 1.90%, resulting in a net reduction of 1.18% in institutional shareholding [6]. Market Challenges - The bank faces challenges in expanding personal loans and corporate deposits due to a slow growth rate in housing mortgage loans and adjustments in deposit structure - There is an increasing pressure on credit risk management as overdue and attention-class loans have risen [6].