你以为"提前还贷"只是个理财小动作？ 说起中国人买房，大家脑子里第一反应肯定是"背房贷"，几十年按揭，咬牙攒首付，然后盼着哪天房价翻倍，财富自由。 可到了2025年，这一套"财富剧本"突然被现实撕碎，不是大家还不起房贷，而是大家都抢着提前还清！ 四年之间，提前还掉的房贷高达12.8万亿，银行的钱袋子眼看着"瘦身"，而购房者却一点没轻松。 背后这场看不见的资金流动，到底是谁在赢，谁在输？是政策在救市，还是市场在自救？ 以前房贷余额年年涨，买房的人越来越多，银行的生意越做越大。 自2021年末起，全国个人住房贷款余额竟"急转直下"。初始为38.32万亿，至2025年二季度末，已降至37.74万亿。 这四年时间，全国新房销售额加起来有40万亿，按照六成房贷比例，理论上得新增24万亿贷款，再算上二手房交易，净增至少也有28万亿。 可余额不升反降，唯一能解释的办法，就是提前还贷成了大趋势。其实这还不是凭空猜测，数据说话：2019年和2020年，房贷新增7.57万亿，和理论推算的 7.75万亿几乎一模一样。 说明在那会儿，大家都是老老实实按揭还款。 可眼下，提前还贷成了"全国运动"，12.8万亿的规模，已经超过了中国一年 ...

去四年，全国房贷余额居然不增反降，明明卖掉了40多万亿的新房，可银行里的房贷本金却少了。这不是表面上的数字游戏，而是一场已经悄然改变金融生 态的真实风暴。老百姓用实际行动交出了答案——提前还贷12.8万亿。 这组数字背后，是家庭资产负债表的重构，是银行利润模型的崩塌，更是政策底与市场底的博弈。面对这场罕见的"逆周期现象"，两个问题变得格外刺眼： 老百姓为什么在资金紧张的当下选择提前还贷？救市政策是否真的会如期而至？ 2021年末，全国个人房贷余额达到38.32万亿元，是历史上的高点。到2025年二季度末，这一数字却降到了37.74万亿元。哪怕是2024年末，也只有37.68万亿 元，始终没有回到那一年的峰值。 几年前的房贷利率普遍在5%以上，有的甚至超过6%。到了2024、2025年，经过两轮主动下调，很多人的房贷利率已经降到了3.5%甚至更低。可即便如此， 很多人还是选择提前还款。 道理其实很简单：在收入预期变弱、房价下行的周期里，提前还贷等于锁定确定收益。每年少交的利息，就是稳稳的保底利润。在这个讲究"稳妥"的时代， 这种选择看起来更踏实。 这四年里，全国新房销售额年年都在10万亿级别：2022年为13. ...

作为一名长期观察楼市的80后，我从农村走向城市，扎根地产研究十八年，希望能成为您了解楼市动向、把握置业机会的可靠朋友。 2025年末，楼市似乎又涌动着一股微妙的暗流。让我们先从两则引人注目的消息说起： 先看深圳，一则劲爆的消息迅速引爆了地产圈。一张截图显示，深圳湾一处由央企中信城开打造的新盘——信悦湾，其备案单价竟然突破了38万元/平方 米的天际线，直接刷新了深圳新房价格的历史记录。一位深圳房产中介兴奋地在群里配文："历史经验告诉我们，楼市每一轮上扬行情启动前，都是房价 先行！" 事实上，北京并非孤军奋战。在此之前，上海已经悄然放宽了临港新片区的购房限制，广州也降低了非户籍人才购房的社保要求。杭州、南京等强二线城 市更是早早推出了购房补贴、降低首付比例等一系列刺激政策。 中原地产的数据显示，仅12月以来，全国已有23个一二线城市密集出台楼市松绑政策，其力度远超上半年。 面对这轮密集的操作，不少人开始感到焦虑，纷纷询问：救市是否要从一线城市全面铺开？现在是否应该赶紧上车？ 对此，我的看法是：政策松绑并不等同于市场回暖，千万不要被"带头"二字冲昏头脑，越是着急，越容易踩坑！ 北京为何急于松绑？本地需求已经接近枯竭 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market has entered a significant adjustment phase in 2023, with a 7.5% year-on-year decline in sales area and a 4.6% drop in sales revenue from January to September [1] - The average residential sales price has been on a downward trend, hitting a low in September 2023, with a 16% decrease compared to the beginning of the year [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The current real estate market is characterized by two contrasting viewpoints: one sees it as a buying opportunity, while the other warns of a clear downward trend [3] - The effectiveness of government stimulus measures has been limited, indicating that the current market adjustment may not be a short-term fluctuation [6] - A survey by Morgan Stanley reveals that 80% of Chinese families are hesitant about purchasing homes, with 42% expecting further price declines in the next 12 months [7] Group 2: Market Sentiment - The phenomenon of "unfinished buildings" due to financial issues among real estate companies has severely impacted buyer confidence [7] - The surge in second-hand housing listings, with a 27.94% increase in new listings by the end of September, reflects a lack of confidence in future market conditions [8] - The "recognize house, not loan" policy has led to a significant increase in second-hand listings, particularly in major cities like Shanghai and Beijing, indicating a potential pressure on future housing prices [8]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a significant downturn despite various government measures aimed at stimulating it, with sales and transaction volumes continuing to decline sharply [2][5]. Group 1: Market Conditions - In August 2025, the sales revenue of the top 100 real estate companies decreased by nearly 20% compared to the same period in 2024, and the new home transaction volume in 30 key cities fell by 12% month-on-month and 17% year-on-year [2]. - From January to August 2025, the overall sales revenue dropped by over 13% year-on-year, indicating a persistent downward trend [2]. - The average time to sell a house in the 30 key cities exceeds 28 months, with some areas taking over 40 months, suggesting an oversupply in the market [2]. Group 2: Impact of Policy Measures - Some "stimulus" measures have inadvertently increased supply, as developers rush to launch projects earlier than planned to capitalize on policy changes [3]. - Despite policy relaxations such as lifting purchase restrictions and lowering interest rates, these measures do not address the underlying demographic issues affecting demand [5]. Group 3: Demographic Challenges - The birth rate continues to decline, with the number of newborns in 2025 being less than half of that in 2016, leading to a shrinking pool of potential homebuyers [3]. - In August 2025, only 17% of homebuyers were under 30 years old, a significant drop from five years prior when this demographic represented a much larger share [3]. Group 4: Changing Market Dynamics - The fundamental logic of the real estate market has shifted; properties are no longer seen as guaranteed investments but are returning to their essential function as places to live [5]. - The effectiveness of policies is limited by the income expectations and debt situations of ordinary people, which are critical factors in determining market stability [5].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China has been experiencing a downward trend since April, prompting government emphasis on stabilizing the market and the introduction of new stimulus measures [4][5] Group 1: Government Measures - Yueyang, Hunan Province, has announced a significant housing subsidy of up to 200,000 yuan per unit, indicating strong support for the real estate market [4] - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Suzhou have recently implemented new supportive measures to boost the housing market [4][5] - Shanghai's new measures include the cancellation of purchase restrictions outside the outer ring, increased support from housing provident funds, and adjustments to personal housing loan interest rates [4] - Suzhou has removed restrictions on the transfer of newly built residential properties, aiming to support the release of demand for improved housing [4] Group 2: Market Trends - The traditional peak season for the real estate market, "Golden September and Silver October," is approaching, and cities are expected to continue introducing supportive measures [4][5] - Beijing has already relaxed purchase restrictions outside the fifth ring, which is expected to enhance transaction activity in the market [5] - Shenzhen and Guangzhou have yet to announce new support measures, despite their recent underperformance in the housing market [5] - The upcoming months of September and October are critical for the market to stabilize, as previous measures released in late September last year had a positive impact [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent policies introduced by first-tier cities aim to stimulate the real estate market, but underlying challenges such as high inventory and declining population must be acknowledged [1][11]. Group 1: Policy Changes - Shanghai's new policy includes significant measures such as lifting purchase limits for non-residents, allowing them to buy homes in the outer ring after paying social insurance or taxes for one year [3][5]. - The interest rate differential between first and second homes has been eliminated, resulting in substantial savings for buyers; for a loan of 2 million over 30 years, monthly payments can decrease from 10,136 yuan to 9,086 yuan, saving over 37 million yuan in total [5]. - The maximum public housing fund loan for green buildings can reach 1.84 million yuan, with additional benefits for families with multiple children, easing financial pressure on buyers [5]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the new policies, the Shanghai real estate market saw immediate activity, with projects like Poly Haishangyin promoting aggressive sales strategies [6]. - High-end properties, such as the Shanghai Yihua Courtyard, have demonstrated strong demand, selling 66 units at an average price of 73 million yuan within an hour, totaling 4.8 billion yuan in sales [6]. Group 3: Broader Market Trends - Other first-tier cities are also implementing measures to stabilize their real estate markets, such as Beijing lifting purchase limits and increasing public housing loan amounts [7][10]. - Guangzhou has removed restrictions on purchases, sales, and prices, while Shenzhen has lowered mortgage rates significantly [8][9]. Group 4: Market Challenges - The inventory pressure remains high, with new home inventory in Shanghai's outer ring expected to take over 20 months to deplete, far exceeding the healthy standard of 12 months [11]. - Home prices continue to decline, with new home prices in 70 major cities dropping by 3.7% year-on-year, and second-hand home prices down by 6.1% [11]. - The population is experiencing negative growth, with 9.54 million births and 10.93 million deaths in 2024, raising concerns about future housing demand [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Shanghai's recent measures to stimulate the real estate market, which are seen as a significant move to support not only Shanghai but also the broader Yangtze River Delta region. The timing of these measures is crucial, as many potential homebuyers have paused their purchasing plans due to the rising stock market, indicating a shift in investment preferences from real estate to equities [2][4][8][10]. Summary by Sections Historical Context - The article draws parallels between the current economic environment and historical periods, specifically 1998-2001, 2012-2014, and 2020-2021, highlighting a recurring pattern where the stock market is stimulated first to create liquidity before directing funds into the real estate market [18][19][23][27]. - In each historical instance, the government has strategically used the stock market to bolster liquidity, which eventually leads to a surge in the real estate market, particularly in major cities like Shanghai [20][22][26][30]. Current Economic Dynamics - The article emphasizes that the current economic strategy involves first boosting the stock market (referred to as "大A") to enhance social liquidity, which will then be funneled into the real estate sector. This approach is seen as a necessary step to address the pressures on total demand [32][35]. - It is noted that the recent measures in Shanghai are not merely a response to immediate market conditions but are part of a broader strategy to reshape the valuation of RMB assets and stimulate domestic demand [43][44]. Investment Implications - The article suggests that the current situation presents a unique opportunity for investors in the real estate market, as the economic fundamentals are still declining while the stock market is performing well. This creates a favorable entry point for potential buyers before the market dynamics shift [44]. - It concludes that all asset price movements are aligned with macroeconomic policy goals, indicating that the valuation logic for RMB assets differs significantly from that of Western economies [45][46].

Economic Performance - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, and the per capita disposable income reached 21,840 yuan, also reflecting a nominal increase of 5.3% compared to the previous year [1] - The overall price level remained stable, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.1% [1] Consumer Market Trends - A rebound in mid-to-low-end consumption is anticipated starting from September, with increased foot traffic in restaurants and tourist attractions [3][5] - High-end consumer markets, such as automobiles, real estate, and luxury goods, continue to experience low demand [5] Real Estate Market - The real estate market has seen ongoing policy relaxations since 2024, with most cities lifting purchase restrictions and banks reducing mortgage rates from 5.88% to 3.2% [7] - Despite these measures, the national second-hand housing prices have been declining for over 30 months, with a year-on-year drop of 7.32% in July [7] Banking and Investment Products - The banking wealth management market has grown, with a total scale of 30.67 trillion yuan as of June 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.53% [9] - The trend of declining deposit rates has led many savers to invest in wealth management products, although some have faced losses due to falling money market yields and rising bond market risks [9] Artificial Intelligence Impact - The acceleration of artificial intelligence is leading to significant job displacement across various sectors, including customer service and delivery [11] - More jobs are expected to be replaced by AI technologies, particularly in manufacturing and banking, enhancing operational efficiency and reducing errors [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Beijing real estate market is experiencing significant challenges, prompting the government to implement new policies aimed at stimulating demand and alleviating financial pressures on buyers [2][12]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The recent policy changes include lifting purchase restrictions for local and eligible non-local buyers outside the Fifth Ring Road, allowing single individuals to purchase homes [2]. - The public housing loan limit for second homes has been increased from 600,000 to 1,000,000, with some eligible for up to 1,400,000, providing more financial flexibility for buyers [2]. - The down payment requirement for second homes has been standardized at 30%, and the criteria for first-time homebuyers have been relaxed, significantly reducing the financial burden on purchasers [2]. Group 2: Market Conditions - 81.4% of new housing inventory is located outside the Fifth Ring Road, indicating a significant oversupply in these areas [2]. - The market remains sluggish, with a 15.56% month-on-month decline in second-hand home transactions in July and a 7.32% year-on-year price drop, marking 28 consecutive months of price declines [2]. - The local government's financial strain is evident, with land transfer revenue down 43% year-on-year, highlighting the economic pressures influencing policy decisions [3]. Group 3: Financial Risks - The non-performing loan ratio for housing loans in Beijing has increased by 0.8 percentage points within six months, indicating rising financial risks in the real estate sector [4]. - Property values have significantly decreased, with properties previously valued at 8 million now assessed at a maximum of 5.5 million, raising concerns among lenders [5]. - A survey indicates that 92% of respondents believe housing prices will continue to decline, reflecting a lack of confidence in the market [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - There are indications that additional supportive measures may be introduced, such as interest-only repayment options for the first five years of loans, which could ease monthly financial burdens for buyers [9]. - The government is also exploring ways to convert excess inventory into affordable housing, which could help alleviate the pressure on both homeowners and new buyers [11]. - Despite the new policies, market reactions have been tepid, with reports of increased listings for discounted properties, suggesting that sellers are eager to capitalize on perceived policy benefits [11].