Most active gold futures touched a high of $3,994.50 an ounce on Comex Monday. - Agence France-Presse/Getty Images Gold’s climb to record highs has become somewhat of a steady march this year, but there doesn’t appear to be anything that can soon stop the precious metal from reaching the key psychological level of $4,000 an ounce. What’s happening to gold feels “less like bracing for a storm, and more like a plane catching a powerful tailwind midflight,” Adam Koos, president and senior financial adviser ...

Group 1: Economic Context - The current US-China tariff war has entered a temporary easing and negotiation phase, but high tariffs and Trump's unpredictable stance suggest a prolonged struggle ahead[1] - The outcome of the tariff war will ultimately depend on the economic resilience and fiscal space of both countries, as evidenced by historical conflicts[1] Group 2: Economic Impact of the Tariff War - Economic shocks from the tariff war can lead to growth declines and resource depletion, with the party that stabilizes its economy having a stronger negotiating position[2] - The tariff war has created a "triple whammy" for the US, prompting it to seek negotiations due to rising financial risks[2] Group 3: Fiscal Space Comparison - China's fiscal space is greater than that of the US, providing it with a stronger position in the tariff war[2] - Key indicators show that from 2004 to 2024, China's average fiscal deficit rate is 3.5%, while the US's is 6.0%[16] - As of 2024, China's government debt-to-GDP ratio is 60.9%, significantly lower than the US's 124.1%[15] Group 4: Debt and Financing Costs - China's government bond issuance rates are on a downward trend, with an average rate of 1.68% in May 2025, compared to the US's 4.29%[32] - In 2024, China's interest payments accounted for only 1.6% of GDP, while the US's was 3.8%, indicating a lower debt service burden for China[41] Group 5: Inflation and Economic Stability - China's current low inflation environment, with a CPI growth rate of -0.1% in May 2025, allows for greater fiscal expansion without the risk of high inflation[51] - In contrast, the US is experiencing higher inflation pressures, with a CPI growth rate of 2.4% in May 2025, complicating its fiscal situation[51]

Group 1 - Citadel Securities President Jim Esposito warns that the rising U.S. fiscal deficit and government debt levels represent a "ticking time bomb" [1] - Esposito emphasizes the importance of how the Trump administration addresses the fiscal situation, stating that it will be "crucial" [1] - Concerns about the budget deficit have intensified due to a tax bill being reviewed by Congress, which is estimated to increase the U.S. budget deficit by $2.4 trillion over the next decade [2] Group 2 - Citadel Securities has benefited from market volatility, reporting record profits and trading revenues in the first quarter of this year [2] - The firm is expanding its presence in various asset classes and regions, including entering the investment-grade corporate bond market in 2023 [2] - Esposito indicates that the company is looking to expand its cryptocurrency trading business under new regulatory frameworks, viewing cryptocurrency as a serious asset class for institutional and professional investors [2]