Group 1: Economic Context - The current US-China tariff war has entered a temporary easing and negotiation phase, but high tariffs and Trump's unpredictable stance suggest a prolonged struggle ahead[1] - The outcome of the tariff war will ultimately depend on the economic resilience and fiscal space of both countries, as evidenced by historical conflicts[1] Group 2: Economic Impact of the Tariff War - Economic shocks from the tariff war can lead to growth declines and resource depletion, with the party that stabilizes its economy having a stronger negotiating position[2] - The tariff war has created a "triple whammy" for the US, prompting it to seek negotiations due to rising financial risks[2] Group 3: Fiscal Space Comparison - China's fiscal space is greater than that of the US, providing it with a stronger position in the tariff war[2] - Key indicators show that from 2004 to 2024, China's average fiscal deficit rate is 3.5%, while the US's is 6.0%[16] - As of 2024, China's government debt-to-GDP ratio is 60.9%, significantly lower than the US's 124.1%[15] Group 4: Debt and Financing Costs - China's government bond issuance rates are on a downward trend, with an average rate of 1.68% in May 2025, compared to the US's 4.29%[32] - In 2024, China's interest payments accounted for only 1.6% of GDP, while the US's was 3.8%, indicating a lower debt service burden for China[41] Group 5: Inflation and Economic Stability - China's current low inflation environment, with a CPI growth rate of -0.1% in May 2025, allows for greater fiscal expansion without the risk of high inflation[51] - In contrast, the US is experiencing higher inflation pressures, with a CPI growth rate of 2.4% in May 2025, complicating its fiscal situation[51]

对预算赤字的担忧在5月因国会审议的一项减税法案而加剧。无党派机构国会预算办公室(Congressional Budget Office)估计，众议院通过的税收与支出法案版本将在未来十年使美国预算赤字增加2.4万亿美 元。 特朗普政策引发的此类市场波动通常会让总部位于迈阿密的城堡证券受益——该公司擅长处理高频交 易。受市场波动推动，城堡证券今年第一季度公布了创纪录的利润和交易收入。 这家由亿万富翁肯·格里芬(Ken Griffin)创立的做市巨头正不断扩大在各类资产和地区的布局，于2023年 涉足投资级企业债券市场。埃斯波西托周四透露，公司正寻求在新监管框架下拓展加密货币交易业务。 "加密货币已过了不可逆转的临界点，它正成为机构投资者和专业投资者认真对待的资产类别，"他 说，"随着监管规则的明确，我认为这将成为一个庞大且可行的资产类别，我们都将参与其中。" 智通财经APP获悉，城堡证券(Citadel Securities)总裁吉姆·埃斯波西托(Jim Esposito)指出，美国财政赤字 和不断攀升的政府债务水平是一枚"定时炸弹"，加入了众多金融高管对美国日益恶化的财政前景的警告 行列。曾于去年从高盛集团加入 ...