Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - For coking coal, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and weak respectively, with a reference view of range oscillation. The core logic is that the strong expectations have been fulfilled, and coking coal has fallen from its high level [1][5]. - For coke, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and weak respectively, with a reference view of range oscillation. The core logic is that the optimistic sentiment has cooled down, and coke has continued to correct [1][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - **Market Situation**: The intraday view is oscillatory and weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is range oscillation [5]. - **Supply**: As of the week ending August 1, 2025, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines was 77.7 million tons, unchanged from the previous week and 0.6 million tons higher than the same period last year. After mines completed their production targets at the end of the month, production decreased temporarily and will gradually recover in August. From July 21 - 26, the Ganqimaodu Port's Mongolian coal cumulative customs clearance was 6003 vehicles, equivalent to a daily average of 1000.5 vehicles. On July 30, the single - day customs clearance reached 1461 vehicles, a new high for the year [5]. - **Demand**: This week, the daily average coke output was 111.78 million tons, basically unchanged from the previous week. The coking coal fundamentals have not improved significantly [5]. - **Outlook**: The previous drivers that supported the upward movement of coal prices, such as anti - involution production cut expectations and Politburo meeting expectations, have basically been fulfilled. After this correction, the medium - to long - term coal price center is expected to gradually rise [5]. Coke - **Market Situation**: The intraday view is oscillatory and weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is range oscillation [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of the week ending August 1, 2025, the combined daily average coke output of independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 111.78 million tons, basically unchanged from the previous week. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 240.71 million tons, a decrease of 1.52 million tons from the previous week but still above 240 million tons per day. The profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 65.37%. Although it is the traditional construction off - season, the seasonal decline in coke demand is limited [8]. - **Market Sentiment**: The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. After the Politburo meeting on July 30, the strong policy expectations were fulfilled, and the market's optimistic sentiment had a phased correction [8]. - **Outlook**: The coke fundamentals have not changed much. In the short term, coke futures may maintain a wide - range oscillatory operation, and the market's focus will gradually return to the actual supply of coking coal [8].

Market Overview and Analysis - The issuance scale of government bonds, local bonds, and policy financial bonds in the primary market last week was 293.2 billion, 231.8 billion, and 165 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of 193.1 billion, 110.2 billion, and 159 billion [1] - Non-financial credit bonds had a total issuance scale of 277.5 billion, with a net financing amount of 95.8 billion. One new convertible bond was issued, expected to raise 4.9 billion [1] Liquidity Tracking - The net absorption through OMO was 226.5 billion, with marginal tightening of funds, and both repo and certificate of deposit rates increased [2] Policy and Fundamentals - The June CPI year-on-year was 0.1%, while the PPI year-on-year was -3.6%, with CPI meeting expectations and PPI significantly below expectations [3] Overseas Market - The US announced a new round of tariff increases on the EU, Mexico, and Brazil, with rates raised to between 30% and 50%, and the deadline for reciprocal tariff negotiations extended to August 1 [4] Equity Market - Influenced by real estate policy expectations and anti-involution, the Wande All A index continued its upward trend, with real estate and building materials sectors leading the gains. The Wande All A rose by 1.71%, the ChiNext index increased by 2.36%, and the CSI 300 rose by 0.82%. The average daily trading volume in A-shares slightly increased to nearly 1.5 trillion, up by 54.748 billion from the previous week [5] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - With the upcoming tax period and MLF maturity, funding demand is expected to increase. However, the central bank has started to restore net reverse repos, which may continue to increase liquidity supply. The market is currently pricing in expectations around real estate policies and upstream commodity price increases, but the necessity for significant short-term stimulus policies is low given the strong economic performance in the first half of the year [6]