1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of both Jiao coal 2509 and Coke 2509 are mainly "oscillation", with a reference view of "range oscillation". Jiao coal and coke are expected to have a long - term upward trend in price after a short - term correction [1][5][8] 3. Summary by Variety Jiao Coal (JM) - **Views**: Intraday and medium - term views are "oscillation with an upward bias", and the reference view is "range oscillation" [5] - **Core Logic**: As of the week ending August 1st, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines was 77.7 million tons, unchanged from the previous week and 0.6 million tons higher than last year. After mines completed their production targets at the end of the month, production decreased and will gradually recover in August. From July 21st - 26th, the average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimao Port was 1000.5 vehicles, and on July 30th, the single - day customs clearance reached 1461 vehicles, a new high for the year. The daily average coke output this week was 111.78 million tons, basically unchanged from the previous week. The previous driving forces for the coal price increase have been realized, and the market's optimistic sentiment has cooled. After the correction, the coal price is expected to gradually rise in the long - term [5] Coke (J) - **Views**: Intraday and medium - term views are "oscillation with an upward bias", and the reference view is "range oscillation" [8] - **Core Logic**: This week, coke supply stabilized while demand decreased slightly, and the fundamentals still face some pressure. The profitability of downstream steel mills improved, and the decline in hot metal production was moderate. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. After the Politburo meeting on July 30th, the market's optimistic sentiment had a phased correction. Coke is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short - term, and future market attention will gradually return to the actual supply of Jiao coal [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For coke, this week's supply stabilized while demand decreased slightly, with the fundamentals still under some pressure. However, the profitability rate of downstream steel mills improved month - on - month, and the molten iron output showed certain resilience. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. After the Politburo meeting on July 30, the market's optimistic sentiment had a phased correction. In the short term, coke futures may fluctuate widely, and future market focus will gradually return to the actual supply of coking coal [5][33]. - For coking coal, as of the week ending August 1, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines was 77.7 tons, flat week - on - week and 0.6 tons higher than last year. The supply from Mongolia increased rapidly. The fundamentals of coking coal did not improve significantly. After the previous upward drivers were realized, the coking coal futures corrected from high levels. In the long - term, after the capacity optimization and upgrade of the coal industry, the coal price center is expected to gradually rise [6][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Information - The land market in core Chinese cities showed a trend of "decreasing volume but improving quality" from January to July. The average premium rate of land transactions in first - and second - tier core cities exceeded 10%. The average transaction floor price of residential land in 300 cities increased by 34.3% year - on - year, and the land transfer revenue increased by more than 20% [8]. - On August 4, the price of coking coal in the Jinzhong market rose by 50 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - For coke, the current price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port's FOB was 1,420 yuan/ton, up 7.58% week - on - week; at Qingdao Port's ex - warehouse, it was 1,400 yuan/ton, up 1.45% week - on - week [10]. - For coking coal, the current price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1,150 yuan/ton, up 11.65% week - on - week; Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,490 yuan/ton, up 1.36% week - on - week; Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,650 yuan/ton, up 10.00% week - on - week [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the active coke futures contract was 1,615.0 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.15%. The trading volume was 30,451, and the open interest was 25,782 [13]. - The closing price of the active coking coal futures contract was 1,141.0 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2.33%. The trading volume was 1,908,758, and the open interest was 487,977 [13]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - There are charts showing the inventory of coke (including independent coking plants, steel mill coking plants, ports, and total inventory), the inventory of coking coal (including mine mouth, ports, steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants), domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, coal washery production, and coking plant operation [14][20][26] 3.5 Future Outlook - Coke futures are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and the market will gradually focus on the actual supply of coking coal [5][33]. - After the correction of coking coal futures, the coal price center is expected to gradually rise in the long - term [6][34]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - For coking coal, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and weak respectively, with a reference view of range oscillation. The core logic is that the strong expectations have been fulfilled, and coking coal has fallen from its high level [1][5]. - For coke, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and weak respectively, with a reference view of range oscillation. The core logic is that the optimistic sentiment has cooled down, and coke has continued to correct [1][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - **Market Situation**: The intraday view is oscillatory and weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is range oscillation [5]. - **Supply**: As of the week ending August 1, 2025, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines was 77.7 million tons, unchanged from the previous week and 0.6 million tons higher than the same period last year. After mines completed their production targets at the end of the month, production decreased temporarily and will gradually recover in August. From July 21 - 26, the Ganqimaodu Port's Mongolian coal cumulative customs clearance was 6003 vehicles, equivalent to a daily average of 1000.5 vehicles. On July 30, the single - day customs clearance reached 1461 vehicles, a new high for the year [5]. - **Demand**: This week, the daily average coke output was 111.78 million tons, basically unchanged from the previous week. The coking coal fundamentals have not improved significantly [5]. - **Outlook**: The previous drivers that supported the upward movement of coal prices, such as anti - involution production cut expectations and Politburo meeting expectations, have basically been fulfilled. After this correction, the medium - to long - term coal price center is expected to gradually rise [5]. Coke - **Market Situation**: The intraday view is oscillatory and weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is range oscillation [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of the week ending August 1, 2025, the combined daily average coke output of independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 111.78 million tons, basically unchanged from the previous week. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 240.71 million tons, a decrease of 1.52 million tons from the previous week but still above 240 million tons per day. The profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 65.37%. Although it is the traditional construction off - season, the seasonal decline in coke demand is limited [8]. - **Market Sentiment**: The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. After the Politburo meeting on July 30, the strong policy expectations were fulfilled, and the market's optimistic sentiment had a phased correction [8]. - **Outlook**: The coke fundamentals have not changed much. In the short term, coke futures may maintain a wide - range oscillatory operation, and the market's focus will gradually return to the actual supply of coking coal [8].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 7 月 31 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 区间震荡 | 政策预期兑现，焦煤宽幅震荡 | | | | | 偏强 | | | | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 区间震荡 | 多空交织，焦炭宽幅震荡 | | | | | 偏强 | 偏弱 | | | 备注： 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡偏强 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：本轮上涨主要逻辑在于"反内卷整治"以及后续国家能源局综合司 108 号文提出的 "超产整治 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Both coking coal and coke are expected to operate strongly in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, with coking coal driven by improved fundamental expectations and coke supported by the fourth price increase and cost from coking coal [1][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - **Coking Coal (JM2509)**: Short - term: oscillating and strong; Medium - term: oscillating and strong; Intraday: rising; Overall view: strong operation. The core logic is the improved fundamental expectations [1] - **Coke (J2509)**: Short - term: oscillating and strong; Medium - term: oscillating and strong; Intraday: rising; Overall view: strong operation. The core logic is the fourth price increase [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Coking Coal (JM)**: - Spot price: The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at Ganqimao Port is 1200.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16.50% [5] - Driving factors: "Anti - involution rectification" and "over - production rectification" policies, but the actual impact needs verification. After capacity optimization and upgrading, the long - term fundamentals are expected to improve, and the futures return to a strong trend after a short - term correction [5] - **Coke (J)**: - Futures performance: On the night session of July 29, after two days of correction, the market became optimistic again, and the main contract rose by more than 6% [6] - Spot price: The fourth price increase was implemented on July 29, and the FOB price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at the port rose to 1420 yuan/ton [6] - Supply: As of July 25, the combined daily average coke output of independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 111.76 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.46 tons [6] - Profit: The profit per ton of coke for 30 independent sample coking plants this week was - 54 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan/ton [6] - Demand: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 242.23 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.21 tons but 2.62 tons higher than the same period last year [6] - Overall situation: The fundamental pressure of coke is not large, and the medium - and long - term improvement expectation of coking coal provides cost support, so the futures strengthen again after a short - term correction [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Report's Core View - For both short - term, medium - term, and intraday, the view on both coking coal (JM 2509) and coke (J 2509) is to take a bullish approach [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are all upward, with a bullish investment view [1]. - **Core Logic**: Since early June, there have been news of safety and environmental production cuts in coal mines. After the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission in July and Xi Jinping's inspection in Shanxi, the expectation of anti - involution in the domestic coal industry has been fermenting. The China National Coal Transportation and Marketing Association and some enterprises have also held meetings to address involution - style competition, highlighting the current imbalance in coal supply and demand. Under the policy of "addressing involution - style competition", the long - term fundamentals of coking coal are expected to improve, driving up futures prices [5]. Coke (J) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are all upward, with a bullish investment view [1]. - **Core Logic**: After the first round of price increase for coke spot was implemented on the 17th, the second round of price increase started on the 21st, and the futures market has improved the spot market sentiment. The commencement of the 1.2 - trillion - yuan Yarlung Zangbo River super - hydropower project will boost the terminal demand for cement and steel in China. Coupled with the continuous fermentation of the anti - involution theme, the overall market sentiment for coke is optimistic, and the main contract remains strong [6].