1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current rebar market is in a game stage of "weak reality + strong expectation" [6]. - Short - term production contraction coexists with weak demand, and high inventory suppresses price elasticity. The price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with limited upside space and the downside space supported by cost [6]. - If demand significantly recovers in mid - to late March, it may be the key to break the price situation [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures price: On Wednesday, the rebar main contract reduced its open interest by 42,377 lots, and the trading volume shrank compared with the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 710,699 lots. The short - term average price broke through the 5 - day moving average, but there was still pressure from the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages. The lowest price was 3061 yuan/ton, the highest was 3085 yuan/ton, and it closed at 3071 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton, a gain of 0.13% [2]. - Spot price: The mainstream area's spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3190 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day [2]. - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 119 yuan/ton to the spot price [3]. Fundamental Data - Supply: Before the Spring Festival, the weekly output of rebar declined from a high level. In the week of February 26, 2026, the rebar output was 1.651 million tons, a decrease of 52,800 tons from the previous week and 414,000 tons lower than the same period of the previous year. The output in 2026 was significantly lower than that in the same period from 2023 - 2025, indicating that steel mills actively reduced production around the Spring Festival to cope with weak demand and inventory pressure [4]. - Demand: Terminal demand dropped sharply and was at a historical low. In the week of February 26, 2026, the current apparent demand was only 335,500 tons, a decrease of 546,000 tons from the previous week and a year - on - year decline of 1.5716 million tons, being at the lowest level in the same period of the past three years. This was mainly due to the seasonal off - season caused by construction site shutdowns and stagnant terminal procurement around the Spring Festival, and the decline was far greater than in previous years, indicating a weaker expectation of demand recovery this year [4]. - Inventory: Both factory and social inventories increased, and the total inventory was still lower than the same period of the previous year. Factory inventory was 2.3284 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 117,700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 14,300 tons. Social inventory was 5.6776 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 727,900 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 614,100 tons. The total inventory was 8.006 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 845,600 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 628,400 tons. Although the week - on - week increase was significant, the year - on - year decrease was still large, indicating that the overall inventory pressure in the industry was less than in previous years [4][5]. - Inventory - to - sales ratio: It was at a high level, reflecting the imbalance between supply and demand. The current inventory - to - sales ratio was 167.04, a significant year - on - year increase to 135.35. A high inventory - to - sales ratio means that the current inventory level is much higher than the demand digestion capacity, and the supply - demand mismatch is serious, which will suppress the rebound space of steel prices until the demand substantially recovers [5]. - Cost and profit: The profitability rate of steel mills was stable, and the cost support was weakening. The profitability rate of steel mills remained in the range of 38% - 40%, and the profit could support blast furnace production. However, pressure was emerging on the raw material side: the port inventory of iron ore exceeded 170 million tons, reaching a five - year high; the import of coking coal continued to increase, and the cost support was weakening [5]. - Macroeconomic aspect: In 2026, the policy expectation for the start of the "14th Five - Year Plan" increased. Central budgetary investment, underground pipe networks, urban renewal and other projects were issued in advance, and the expectation of infrastructure support was enhanced. However, in the short term, affected by the 10% tariff imposed by the United States on imported goods, the market sentiment was cautious. Coupled with the uncertainty of the demand recovery rhythm after the Spring Festival, the market entered a "policy game period" [5]. Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The Two Sessions are about to be held, the absolute inventory level is still at a historical low, policy expectations are rising, and the supply side is contracting [6]. - Bearish factors: Terminal demand continues to be sluggish, cost support is weakening, inventory is continuously accumulating, the de - stocking speed is slowing down, and the capital position structure is bearish [6]. Short - term View Summary - On Wednesday, the rebar open interest decreased, the trading volume shrank, and it closed with a doji. Pay attention to the resistance at the intersection of the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages above, and the short - term support at the previous low. The Two Sessions are being held this week, and the expectation of production restrictions during the Two Sessions provides short - term support. The situation between the US and Iran has escalated, but it has limited impact on rebar [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current rebar market is in a stage of "weak reality + strong expectation" with a game between short - term production contraction and weak demand. High inventory suppresses price elasticity. The price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern with limited upward space and downward space supported by costs. If demand significantly recovers in mid - to late March, it may be the key to break the price situation [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The rebar main contract reduced its open interest by 44,381 lots on Monday, with significantly higher trading volume than the previous trading day (1,029,503 lots). It briefly broke through the 5 - day moving average in the short - term, but faced pressure from the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages in the medium - term. The lowest price was 3,050 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,098 yuan/ton, and it closed at 3,067 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.26%) [2] - Spot price: The mainstream area's spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3,190 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous trading day [2] - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 123 yuan/ton to the spot price, and the basis was still large [3] Fundamental Data - Supply: Before the Spring Festival, the weekly rebar production declined from the high level. In the week of February 26, 2026, the rebar production was 1.651 million tons, a decrease of 52,800 tons from the previous week and 414,000 tons lower year - on - year. The 2026 production was significantly lower than the same period from 2023 - 2025, indicating that steel mills actively reduced production around the Spring Festival to cope with weak demand and inventory pressure [4] - Demand: Terminal demand dropped precipitously and was at a historical low. In the week of February 26, 2026, the current apparent demand was only 33,550 tons, a decrease of 54,600 tons from the previous week and 157,160 tons lower year - on - year, being at the lowest level in the same period of the past three years. This was mainly due to the seasonal off - season caused by construction site shutdowns and stagnant terminal procurement around the Spring Festival, and the decline was much larger than in previous years, indicating weaker expectations for demand recovery this year [4] - Inventory: Both factory and social inventories increased, and the total inventory was still lower year - on - year. Factory inventory was 232,840 tons, up 11,770 tons week - on - week and down 1,430 tons year - on - year. Social inventory was 567,760 tons, up 72,790 tons week - on - week and down 61,410 tons year - on - year. The total inventory was 800,600 tons, up 84,560 tons week - on - week and down 62,840 tons year - on - year. Although the week - on - week increase was significant, it was still much lower than the previous three years, indicating that the overall industry inventory pressure was less than in previous years [4][5] - Inventory - sales ratio: It was at a high level, reflecting the imbalance between supply and demand. The current inventory - sales ratio was 167.04, up significantly from 135.35 year - on - year. A high inventory - sales ratio means that the current inventory level is much higher than the demand digestion capacity, and the supply - demand mismatch is serious, which will suppress the rebound space of steel prices until demand substantially recovers [5] - Cost and profit: The steel mill profitability rate was stable, and the cost support weakened marginally. The steel mill profitability rate remained in the 38% - 40% range, and the profit could still support blast furnace production. However, pressure emerged on the raw material side: the iron ore port inventory exceeded 170 million tons, reaching a five - year high; the coking coal imports continued to grow, and the cost support weakened [5] - Macroeconomic aspect: In 2026, the policy expectations for the start of the "14th Five - Year Plan" increased. The central budgetary investment, underground pipeline network, and urban renewal projects were pre - issued, and the expectation of infrastructure support was enhanced. However, in the short - term, affected by the 10% tariff imposed by the United States on imported goods, the market sentiment was cautious. Coupled with the uncertainty of the demand recovery rhythm after the Spring Festival, the market entered a "policy game period" [5] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The Two Sessions are about to be held, the absolute inventory level is still at a historical low, policy expectations are rising, and the supply side is contracting [6] - Bearish factors: Terminal demand remains sluggish, cost support weakens, inventory continues to accumulate, the inventory reduction speed slows down, and the capital position structure is bearish [6] Short - Term View Summary - On Monday, the rebar main contract fluctuated and consolidated, with a reduction in open interest throughout the day, indicating that funds were cautious due to international geopolitical events. The upper pressure should focus on the convergence of the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term support should focus on the previous low. The Two Sessions will be held this week, and the expectation of production restrictions during the Two Sessions provides short - term support. The escalation of the US - Iran situation has limited impact on rebar [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current rebar market is in a stage of game between "weak reality and strong expectation". In the short - term, the fundamentals are centered around the inventory depletion speed and the intensity of post - holiday resumption of work. It is expected that the price will maintain a volatile pattern, with limited upside space and the downside space supported by costs. If the demand significantly recovers in mid - to late March, it may be the key to break the price situation [5] 3. Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The rebar main contract reduced its positions by 4,226 lots on Friday, with a lower trading volume compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 595,003 lots. In terms of the daily moving average, it broke through the 5 - day moving average in the short - term, but there was still pressure from the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages. The lowest price was 3,047 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,070 yuan/ton, and it closed at 3,067 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton, a gain of 0.03% [1] - Spot price: The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream area was 3,210 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 143 yuan/ton to the spot price, and the basis was still large [2] Fundamental Data - Supply - demand situation: - Supply side: Before the Spring Festival, the weekly output of rebar declined from the high level. In the week of February 26, 2026, the rebar output was 1.651 million tons, 52,800 tons less than the previous week and 414,000 tons less than the same period last year. The output in 2026 was significantly lower than that in the same period from 2023 - 2025, indicating that steel mills actively reduced production around the Spring Festival to cope with weak demand and inventory pressure [3] - Demand side: The terminal demand dropped sharply and was at a historical low. In the week of February 26, 2026, the current apparent demand was only 335,500 tons, 546,000 tons less than the previous week and 1.5716 million tons less than the same period last year, being at the lowest level in the same period in the past three years. This was mainly due to the seasonal off - season caused by the suspension of construction sites and the stagnation of terminal procurement around the Spring Festival, and the decline was far greater than in previous years, indicating a weaker expectation of demand recovery this year [3] - Inventory side: Both factory inventory and social inventory increased, and the total inventory was still lower year - on - year. Factory inventory was 2.3284 million tons, up 117,700 tons month - on - month and down 14,300 tons year - on - year. The production contraction but weaker demand led to the passive accumulation of factory inventory. Social inventory was 5.6776 million tons, up 727,900 tons month - on - month and down 614,100 tons year - on - year. Traders replenished their stocks before the Spring Festival, but the replenishment intensity was much less than in previous years. The total inventory was 8.006 million tons, up 845,600 tons month - on - month and down 628,400 tons year - on - year. Although it increased significantly month - on - month, it was still significantly lower than in the previous three years, indicating that the overall inventory pressure in the industry was less than in previous years [3][4] - Inventory - to - sales ratio: It was at a high level, reflecting the imbalance between supply and demand. The current inventory - to - sales ratio was 167.04, up significantly to 135.35 year - on - year. A high inventory - to - sales ratio means that the current inventory level is much higher than the demand digestion capacity, and the supply - demand mismatch is serious, which will suppress the rebound space of steel prices until the demand substantially recovers [4] - Cost and profit: The profitability rate of steel mills was stable, and the cost support weakened marginally. The profitability rate of steel mills was maintained in the range of 38% - 40%. The profit could support blast furnace production, but pressure emerged on the raw material side: the port inventory of iron ore exceeded 170 million tons, reaching a five - year high; the import of coking coal continued to increase, and the cost support weakened [4] - Macroeconomic aspect: In 2026, the policy expectations at the beginning of the "15th Five - Year Plan" increased. Projects such as central budgetary investment, underground pipe networks, and urban renewal were issued in advance, and the expectation of infrastructure support was enhanced. However, in the short - term, affected by the 10% tariff imposed by the United States on imported goods, the market sentiment was cautious. Coupled with the uncertainty of the demand recovery rhythm after the Spring Festival, the market entered a "policy game period" [4] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The Two Sessions are about to be held, the absolute inventory level is still at a historical low, policy expectations are rising, and the supply side is contracting [5] - Bearish factors: The terminal demand is continuously sluggish, the cost support is weakening, the inventory is continuously accumulating, the inventory depletion speed is slowing down, and the capital position structure is bearish [5] Short - term View Summary - Today, the 05 rebar fluctuated and consolidated throughout the day. It first increased positions and declined slightly, and then decreased positions and rebounded slightly in the afternoon, mainly affected by the meeting news in the afternoon, with some short - sellers leaving the market to avoid risks. The upper pressure should be focused on the intersection of the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages. The rebar market is currently in a game stage of "weak reality + strong expectation". In the short - term, the fundamentals are centered around the inventory depletion speed and the intensity of post - holiday resumption of work. It is expected that the price will maintain a volatile pattern, with limited upside space and the downside space supported by costs. If the demand significantly recovers in mid - to late March, it may be the key to break the price situation [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term rebound of rebar prices lacks momentum, and the market is currently dominated by weak reality. Although there are certain policy easing expectations, the weak demand far exceeds seasonal expectations. The supply - side reduction helps relieve medium - term inventory pressure, but cannot reverse the supply - demand pattern in the short term. The inventory pressure is controllable, and the industry's overall risk is less than in previous years. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of construction sites after March [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The rebar main contract reduced its position by 35,772 lots on Thursday, with a lower trading volume than the previous trading day (689,799 lots). The short - term average daily line broke through the 5 - day moving average, but there was still pressure from the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages. The lowest price was 3050 yuan/ton, the highest was 3083 yuan/ton, and it closed at 3064 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton or 0.23% [1] - Spot price: The mainstream area's HRB400E 20mm rebar spot was quoted at 3210 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures were at a discount of 146 yuan/ton to the spot, and the basis was still large [2] Fundamental Data - Supply - demand situation: - Supply side: Before the Spring Festival, the weekly rebar production declined from a high. In the week of February 26, 2026, the rebar production was 1.651 million tons, 52,800 tons less than the previous week and 414,000 tons less year - on - year. The 2026 production was significantly lower than the same period from 2023 - 2025, indicating that steel mills actively cut production around the Spring Festival to cope with weak demand and inventory pressure [3] - Demand side: Terminal demand dropped precipitously and was at a historical low. In the week of February 26, 2026, the current apparent demand was only 335,500 tons, 546,000 tons less than the previous week and 1.5716 million tons lower year - on - year, at the lowest level in the same period in the past three years. This was mainly due to the seasonal off - season caused by construction site shutdowns and stagnant terminal procurement around the Spring Festival, and the decline far exceeded previous years, indicating weaker expectations for demand recovery this year [3] - Inventory side: Both factory and social inventories increased, and the total inventory was still lower year - on - year. Factory inventory was 232,840 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,770 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 14,300 tons. Social inventory was 567,760 tons, a week - on - week increase of 72,790 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 614,100 tons. The total inventory was 800,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 84,560 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 628,400 tons. Although the week - on - week increase was significant, the year - on - year decrease was still large, indicating that the overall industry inventory pressure was less than in previous years [3][4] - Inventory - to - sales ratio: It was at a high level, reflecting the imbalance between supply and demand. The current inventory - to - sales ratio was 167.04, a significant year - on - year increase to 135.35. A high inventory - to - sales ratio meant that the current inventory level was much higher than the demand digestion capacity, and the supply - demand mismatch was serious, which would suppress the rebound space of steel prices until the demand improved substantially [4] - Cost and profit: The steel mill profitability rate was stable, and the cost support was weakening marginally. The steel mill profitability rate was maintained in the 38% - 40% range, and the profit could support blast furnace production. However, pressure was emerging on the raw material side: the iron ore port inventory exceeded 170 million tons, reaching a five - year high; coking coal imports continued to increase, and the cost support was weakening [4] - Macroeconomic aspect: In 2026, policy expectations were rising at the start of the "14th Five - Year Plan". Central budgetary investment, underground pipe network, and urban renewal projects were issued in advance, and the expectation of infrastructure support was strengthened. However, in the short term, affected by the 10% tariff imposed by the US on imported goods, market sentiment was cautious. Coupled with the uncertainty of the demand recovery rhythm after the Spring Festival, the market entered a "policy game period" [4] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The Two Sessions are about to be held, the absolute inventory level is still at a historical low, policy expectations are rising, and the supply side is contracting [5] - Bearish factors: Terminal demand continues to be sluggish, cost support is weakening, inventory is continuously accumulating, the de - stocking speed is slowing down, and the capital position structure is bearish [5] Short - term View Summary - After a volume - increasing and position - reducing rebound yesterday, there was a position - reducing and volume - shrinking decline today, indicating that some long positions left the market today, and the confidence of going long was slightly insufficient. The upper pressure should be focused on the overlap of the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages. In the medium term, it is still in a weak operation. Fundamentally, it is currently dominated by weak reality, and there are certain policy easing expectations. The data from the Steel Union this week shows the typical off - season performance around the Spring Festival, with stable production, stagnant demand, and inventory accumulation being the regular rhythm, but the weakness of the demand side this year far exceeds seasonal expectations. The supply - side active contraction: the steel mills' production reduction is significant, which helps relieve the medium - term inventory pressure, but cannot reverse the supply - demand pattern in the short term. The inventory pressure is controllable: although the week - on - week increase is large, the total inventory is still significantly lower than in the previous three years, indicating that the overall industry risk is less than in previous years, leaving room for subsequent demand recovery. The high inventory - to - sales ratio and weak demand will continue to suppress rebar prices, and the short - term rebound power is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of construction sites after March [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - After the first trading day after the Spring Festival, rebar significantly increased positions, expanded volume, and declined, hitting a new low in nearly 7 months. The daily line is under short - term pressure from the 5 - day moving average and medium - term pressure from the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages. The technical aspect shows a bearish trend, and there is no sign of a stop - fall yet. The current fundamentals are dominated by weak reality, with certain expectations of policy easing. The decline of coking coal and iron ore is relatively large, and the cost support weakens. It is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the strength of demand recovery and the evolution of supply and demand [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: On Tuesday, the holding volume of the rebar main contract increased by 92,067 lots. The trading volume expanded compared with the previous trading day, reaching 746,349 lots. The daily moving average broke through the short - term 5 - day moving average, the medium - term 30 - day moving average, and the 60 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,005 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,060 yuan/ton, and it closed at 3,027 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton, or a decline of 0.88% [1] - Spot price: The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream area was 3,210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan compared with the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 183 yuan/ton to the spot price, and the basis was still large [2] Fundamental Data Supply - demand situation - Supply side: Before the festival, the weekly output of rebar declined from a high level. In the week of February 13, 2026, the rebar output was 1.6916 million tons, a decrease of 0.2252 million tons compared with the previous week, mainly due to the concentrated maintenance of electric - arc furnace steel mills. Long - process steel mills still maintained a relatively high operating rate, but the overall supply pressure was alleviated compared with the peak in January [3] - Demand side: The terminal demand shrank significantly seasonally. In early February, the average daily trading volume of construction steel of 237 mainstream traders dropped to about 28,000 tons, a decrease of more than 20% month - on - month. The apparent consumption declined for three consecutive weeks, dropping to about 1.476 million tons in the week of February 13, the lowest level in the same lunar period in recent years. The new construction of real estate and the arrival of infrastructure funds were still weak, and the market was "priced but without trading" before the festival [3] - Inventory side: The inventory accumulation accelerated, and the pressure was significant. As of February 13, 2026, the social inventory of rebar reached 4.2323 million tons, an increase of 0.5731 million tons week - on - week; the steel mill inventory increased by 0.0994 million tons to 1.6359 million tons; the total inventory reached 5.8682 million tons, at a high level in the same period in recent years. Compared with the same period in history, although the inventory accumulation speed was slower than the average from 2022 - 2024, the absolute level was still high, and the inventory de - stocking pressure was significant, which became the core factor suppressing the price [3] Cost and profit - The profitability rate of steel mills was stable, and the cost support weakened marginally. The profitability rate of steel mills was maintained in the range of 38% - 40%. The profit could support blast furnace production, but pressure appeared on the raw material side: the port inventory of iron ore exceeded 170 million tons, reaching a five - year high; the import of coking coal continued to increase, and the cost support weakened [4] Macroeconomic aspect - In 2026, the policy expectations at the beginning of the "14th Five - Year Plan" increased. The central budgetary investment, underground pipeline network, urban renewal and other projects were advanced, and the expectation of infrastructure support was enhanced. However, in the short term, affected by the 10% tariff increase on imported goods by the United States, the market sentiment was cautious. Coupled with the uncertainty of the demand recovery rhythm after the Spring Festival, the market entered a "policy game period" [4] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The absolute level of inventory is still at a historical low, policy expectations are rising, and the supply side is contracting [5] - Bearish factors: The terminal demand continues to be sluggish, the cost support weakens, the inventory continues to accumulate, the de - stocking speed slows down, and the capital position structure is bearish [5]