Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The rebar market is in a stage of "weak reality + strong expectation" with a game between short - term production contraction and weak demand. The high inventory suppresses price elasticity, and the price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern with limited upside and downside support from costs. If demand significantly recovers in mid - to - late March, it may be the key to break the price situation [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The open interest of the main rebar contract decreased by 21,925 lots on Tuesday, and the trading volume shrank compared with the previous trading day, with 788,272 lots. The short - term average price broke through the 5 - day moving average, but there was still pressure from the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages. The lowest price was 3,057 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,078 yuan/ton, and it closed at 3,074 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton or 0.07% [2] - Spot price: The mainstream area's spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3,190 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day [2] - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 116 yuan/ton to the spot price, and the basis was still large [3] Fundamental Data - Supply: Before the Spring Festival, the weekly rebar production declined from a high level. In the week of February 26, 2026, the rebar production was 1.651 million tons, a decrease of 52,800 tons from the previous week and 414,000 tons lower than the same period in the previous year. The production in 2026 was significantly lower than that in the same period from 2023 - 2025, indicating that steel mills actively reduced production around the Spring Festival to cope with weak demand and inventory pressure [4] - Demand: Terminal demand dropped sharply and was at a historical low. In the week of February 26, 2026, the current apparent demand was only 33,550 tons, a decrease of 54,600 tons from the previous week and a year - on - year decline of 157,160 tons, being at the lowest level in the same period of the past three years. This was mainly due to the seasonal off - season caused by construction site shutdowns and stagnant terminal procurement around the Spring Festival, and the decline was far greater than in previous years, indicating weaker expectations for demand recovery this year [4] - Inventory: Both factory and social inventories increased, and the total inventory was still lower than the same period last year. Factory inventory was 232,840 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,770 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1,430 tons. Social inventory was 567,760 tons, a week - on - week increase of 72,790 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 61,410 tons. The total inventory was 800,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 84,560 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 62,840 tons. Although the week - on - week increase was significant, the year - on - year decrease was still large, indicating that the overall industry inventory pressure was less than in previous years [4][5] - Inventory - to - sales ratio: It was at a high level, reflecting the imbalance between supply and demand. The current inventory - to - sales ratio was 167.04, a significant year - on - year increase to 135.35. A high inventory - to - sales ratio meant that the current inventory level was much higher than the demand digestion capacity, and the supply - demand mismatch was serious, which would suppress the rebound space of steel prices until demand substantially recovered [5] - Cost and profit: The steel mill profit rate was stable, and the cost support weakened marginally. The steel mill profit rate remained in the range of 38% - 40%, and the profit could support blast furnace production. However, pressure emerged on the raw material side: the iron ore port inventory exceeded 170 million tons, reaching a five - year high; and coking coal imports continued to grow, weakening the cost support [5] - Macroeconomic aspects: In 2026, policy expectations for the start of the "15th Five - Year Plan" increased, with pre - issued projects such as central budgetary investment, underground pipe networks, and urban renewal, strengthening the expectation of infrastructure support. However, in the short term, due to the 10% tariff imposed by the US on imported goods, market sentiment was cautious. Coupled with the uncertainty of the post - Spring Festival demand recovery rhythm, the market entered a "policy game period" [5] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The Two Sessions are about to be held, the absolute inventory level is still at a historical low, policy expectations are rising, and the supply side is contracting [6] - Bearish factors: Terminal demand remains sluggish, cost support weakens, inventory continues to accumulate, the de - stocking speed slows down, and the capital position structure is bearish [6] Short - term View Summary - On Tuesday, the rebar open interest decreased, trading volume shrank, and the price closed up in a volatile manner. It is expected to continue a relatively strong volatile trend in the short term. The upper pressure should be focused on the convergence of the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term support should be focused on the previous low. The upcoming Two Sessions' production restriction expectations provide short - term support. Although the situation between the US and Iran has escalated, its impact on rebar is limited [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current rebar market is in a stage of "weak reality + strong expectation" with a game between short - term production contraction and weak demand. High inventory suppresses price elasticity. The price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern with limited upward space and downward space supported by costs. If demand significantly recovers in mid - to late March, it may be the key to break the price situation [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The rebar main contract reduced its open interest by 44,381 lots on Monday, with significantly higher trading volume than the previous trading day (1,029,503 lots). It briefly broke through the 5 - day moving average in the short - term, but faced pressure from the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages in the medium - term. The lowest price was 3,050 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,098 yuan/ton, and it closed at 3,067 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.26%) [2] - Spot price: The mainstream area's spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3,190 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous trading day [2] - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 123 yuan/ton to the spot price, and the basis was still large [3] Fundamental Data - Supply: Before the Spring Festival, the weekly rebar production declined from the high level. In the week of February 26, 2026, the rebar production was 1.651 million tons, a decrease of 52,800 tons from the previous week and 414,000 tons lower year - on - year. The 2026 production was significantly lower than the same period from 2023 - 2025, indicating that steel mills actively reduced production around the Spring Festival to cope with weak demand and inventory pressure [4] - Demand: Terminal demand dropped precipitously and was at a historical low. In the week of February 26, 2026, the current apparent demand was only 33,550 tons, a decrease of 54,600 tons from the previous week and 157,160 tons lower year - on - year, being at the lowest level in the same period of the past three years. This was mainly due to the seasonal off - season caused by construction site shutdowns and stagnant terminal procurement around the Spring Festival, and the decline was much larger than in previous years, indicating weaker expectations for demand recovery this year [4] - Inventory: Both factory and social inventories increased, and the total inventory was still lower year - on - year. Factory inventory was 232,840 tons, up 11,770 tons week - on - week and down 1,430 tons year - on - year. Social inventory was 567,760 tons, up 72,790 tons week - on - week and down 61,410 tons year - on - year. The total inventory was 800,600 tons, up 84,560 tons week - on - week and down 62,840 tons year - on - year. Although the week - on - week increase was significant, it was still much lower than the previous three years, indicating that the overall industry inventory pressure was less than in previous years [4][5] - Inventory - sales ratio: It was at a high level, reflecting the imbalance between supply and demand. The current inventory - sales ratio was 167.04, up significantly from 135.35 year - on - year. A high inventory - sales ratio means that the current inventory level is much higher than the demand digestion capacity, and the supply - demand mismatch is serious, which will suppress the rebound space of steel prices until demand substantially recovers [5] - Cost and profit: The steel mill profitability rate was stable, and the cost support weakened marginally. The steel mill profitability rate remained in the 38% - 40% range, and the profit could still support blast furnace production. However, pressure emerged on the raw material side: the iron ore port inventory exceeded 170 million tons, reaching a five - year high; the coking coal imports continued to grow, and the cost support weakened [5] - Macroeconomic aspect: In 2026, the policy expectations for the start of the "14th Five - Year Plan" increased. The central budgetary investment, underground pipeline network, and urban renewal projects were pre - issued, and the expectation of infrastructure support was enhanced. However, in the short - term, affected by the 10% tariff imposed by the United States on imported goods, the market sentiment was cautious. Coupled with the uncertainty of the demand recovery rhythm after the Spring Festival, the market entered a "policy game period" [5] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The Two Sessions are about to be held, the absolute inventory level is still at a historical low, policy expectations are rising, and the supply side is contracting [6] - Bearish factors: Terminal demand remains sluggish, cost support weakens, inventory continues to accumulate, the inventory reduction speed slows down, and the capital position structure is bearish [6] Short - Term View Summary - On Monday, the rebar main contract fluctuated and consolidated, with a reduction in open interest throughout the day, indicating that funds were cautious due to international geopolitical events. The upper pressure should focus on the convergence of the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term support should focus on the previous low. The Two Sessions will be held this week, and the expectation of production restrictions during the Two Sessions provides short - term support. The escalation of the US - Iran situation has limited impact on rebar [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current rebar market is in a stage of game between "weak reality and strong expectation". In the short - term, the fundamentals are centered around the inventory depletion speed and the intensity of post - holiday resumption of work. It is expected that the price will maintain a volatile pattern, with limited upside space and the downside space supported by costs. If the demand significantly recovers in mid - to late March, it may be the key to break the price situation [5] 3. Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The rebar main contract reduced its positions by 4,226 lots on Friday, with a lower trading volume compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 595,003 lots. In terms of the daily moving average, it broke through the 5 - day moving average in the short - term, but there was still pressure from the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages. The lowest price was 3,047 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,070 yuan/ton, and it closed at 3,067 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton, a gain of 0.03% [1] - Spot price: The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream area was 3,210 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 143 yuan/ton to the spot price, and the basis was still large [2] Fundamental Data - Supply - demand situation: - Supply side: Before the Spring Festival, the weekly output of rebar declined from the high level. In the week of February 26, 2026, the rebar output was 1.651 million tons, 52,800 tons less than the previous week and 414,000 tons less than the same period last year. The output in 2026 was significantly lower than that in the same period from 2023 - 2025, indicating that steel mills actively reduced production around the Spring Festival to cope with weak demand and inventory pressure [3] - Demand side: The terminal demand dropped sharply and was at a historical low. In the week of February 26, 2026, the current apparent demand was only 335,500 tons, 546,000 tons less than the previous week and 1.5716 million tons less than the same period last year, being at the lowest level in the same period in the past three years. This was mainly due to the seasonal off - season caused by the suspension of construction sites and the stagnation of terminal procurement around the Spring Festival, and the decline was far greater than in previous years, indicating a weaker expectation of demand recovery this year [3] - Inventory side: Both factory inventory and social inventory increased, and the total inventory was still lower year - on - year. Factory inventory was 2.3284 million tons, up 117,700 tons month - on - month and down 14,300 tons year - on - year. The production contraction but weaker demand led to the passive accumulation of factory inventory. Social inventory was 5.6776 million tons, up 727,900 tons month - on - month and down 614,100 tons year - on - year. Traders replenished their stocks before the Spring Festival, but the replenishment intensity was much less than in previous years. The total inventory was 8.006 million tons, up 845,600 tons month - on - month and down 628,400 tons year - on - year. Although it increased significantly month - on - month, it was still significantly lower than in the previous three years, indicating that the overall inventory pressure in the industry was less than in previous years [3][4] - Inventory - to - sales ratio: It was at a high level, reflecting the imbalance between supply and demand. The current inventory - to - sales ratio was 167.04, up significantly to 135.35 year - on - year. A high inventory - to - sales ratio means that the current inventory level is much higher than the demand digestion capacity, and the supply - demand mismatch is serious, which will suppress the rebound space of steel prices until the demand substantially recovers [4] - Cost and profit: The profitability rate of steel mills was stable, and the cost support weakened marginally. The profitability rate of steel mills was maintained in the range of 38% - 40%. The profit could support blast furnace production, but pressure emerged on the raw material side: the port inventory of iron ore exceeded 170 million tons, reaching a five - year high; the import of coking coal continued to increase, and the cost support weakened [4] - Macroeconomic aspect: In 2026, the policy expectations at the beginning of the "15th Five - Year Plan" increased. Projects such as central budgetary investment, underground pipe networks, and urban renewal were issued in advance, and the expectation of infrastructure support was enhanced. However, in the short - term, affected by the 10% tariff imposed by the United States on imported goods, the market sentiment was cautious. Coupled with the uncertainty of the demand recovery rhythm after the Spring Festival, the market entered a "policy game period" [4] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The Two Sessions are about to be held, the absolute inventory level is still at a historical low, policy expectations are rising, and the supply side is contracting [5] - Bearish factors: The terminal demand is continuously sluggish, the cost support is weakening, the inventory is continuously accumulating, the inventory depletion speed is slowing down, and the capital position structure is bearish [5] Short - term View Summary - Today, the 05 rebar fluctuated and consolidated throughout the day. It first increased positions and declined slightly, and then decreased positions and rebounded slightly in the afternoon, mainly affected by the meeting news in the afternoon, with some short - sellers leaving the market to avoid risks. The upper pressure should be focused on the intersection of the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages. The rebar market is currently in a game stage of "weak reality + strong expectation". In the short - term, the fundamentals are centered around the inventory depletion speed and the intensity of post - holiday resumption of work. It is expected that the price will maintain a volatile pattern, with limited upside space and the downside space supported by costs. If the demand significantly recovers in mid - to late March, it may be the key to break the price situation [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The main contract price of soybean oil on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fluctuated and declined this week due to obstacles in the transfer of US soybean oil biodiesel obligations and high inventory and slow sales of domestic oils. The USDA supply - demand report in September was bearish, but the market still expected a future reduction in yield per unit. The domestic soybean oil market remains in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. The bullish view on soybean oil in the fourth quarter remains unchanged. It is recommended to hold long positions in the Y2601 contract, with support at 8300 - 8310 and resistance at 8550 - 8600 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: China's temporary anti - dumping measures on imported Canadian rapeseed are expected to reduce Canadian rapeseed procurement. Increased imports from Russia/Dubai and Australia can partially offset the supply. Canadian rapeseed production is expected to increase by 3.6% to 19.9 million tons. With the extension of the anti - dumping investigation, there is still uncertainty in Canadian rapeseed trade policies. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory has decreased week - on - week. If Canadian rapeseed imports are significantly reduced, domestic rapeseed oil will continue the de - stocking process. It should be treated with a sideways view, with support at 9500 - 9600 and resistance at 9998 - 10333 [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil continued its seasonal inventory build - up, with the inventory at the end of August increasing by 4.18% month - on - month to 2.2025 million tons. The production from September 1 - 10 decreased by 3.17% month - on - month, and the expected increase in production in September - October is slowing. The continuous decline of US soybean oil exerts a price - comparison pressure on palm oil. However, due to the pre - festival stocking demand in India, the callback space is relatively limited. The price is expected to move sideways, with support at 9074 - 9100 and resistance at 9700 - 9736 [5]. - **Soybean Meal and Bean No. 2**: The price of soybean meal was strong this week. Due to the severe Sino - US trade situation, the price of domestic soybean meal remained firm. It is recommended to hold long positions in the main contract of soybean meal, with support at 2980 - 3000 and resistance at 3180 - 3200 yuan/ton. The No. 11 contract of Bean No. 2 is expected to be strong with a sideways trend, and it is advisable to hold long positions, with support at 3600 - 3630 and resistance at 3950 - 4000 [3][5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: China's anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed are expected to reduce imports. Increased imports from other regions can partially offset the supply. Canadian rapeseed production is expected to increase. With the extension of the anti - dumping investigation, there is uncertainty in trade policies. Domestic rapeseed meal has a de - stocking expectation. It should be treated with a sideways view, with support at 2400 - 2438 and resistance at 2632 - 2698 [4][7]. - **Soybean No. 1**: This week, Soybean No. 1 first declined and then rose, showing an overall decline. Early - maturing soybeans in the Northeast market are sporadically on the market, but the purchase volume is small and the price is not representative. As new grains are listed on a large scale, the price of new - season soybeans is expected to become clear. It is not recommended to chase long positions in Soybean No. 1, and it is advisable to short after stabilization. The No. 11 contract should pay attention to the pressure level at 4000 - 4050 yuan/ton and the support level at 3850 - 3900 yuan/ton [7]. - **Peanuts**: The planting area of new - season peanuts nationwide increased by 4.01% year - on - year. Although drought in some areas may affect local yields, there is an overall expectation of increased production. The cost of peanut planting in the Northeast and Henan has decreased year - on - year. The expected increase in production and the decline in planting cost put pressure on the futures price. With the increase in the listing volume of new - season peanuts, the seasonal supply pressure still exists. However, the futures price has partially reflected the increase in production expectation. The short - term decline has slowed down due to the approaching Mid - Autumn Festival stocking. It is recommended to trade sideways with a light short position. The No. 11 contract has support at 7500 - 7510 and resistance at 8020 - 8162 [7]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: This week, the futures prices of corn and corn starch first rose and then fell. In the overseas market, the high - yield of South American corn has been realized, and the pressure of concentrated listing is being released. Although the excellent rate of US corn has slightly decreased and there are concerns about dry weather and pests, the expectation of a good harvest remains unchanged. In the domestic market, there is a game between the purchasing enthusiasm due to low channel inventory and seasonal pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously. For the No. 11 contract of corn, the support range is 2100 - 2120, and the resistance range is 2240 - 2250. For the No. 11 contract of corn starch, the support range is 2400 - 2420, and the resistance range is 2580 - 2590 [8]. - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs declined weakly over the weekend. The pig - grain ratio has quickly fallen below 6:1, and the breeding profit has deteriorated significantly. Under the "anti - involution" atmosphere of restricting production capacity, the near - term slaughter has increased. It is recommended that cautious investors hold anti - spread positions by shorting near - month contracts and going long on far - month contracts, while aggressive investors can hold long positions in the 2511 or 2601 contracts and buy the 2605 contract on dips in the medium term [8][9]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs was strong over the weekend, and some areas continued to rebound. There are concerns about high inventory, which puts pressure on the near - term spot. The seasonal peak season in September needs further confirmation. The 10 - contract lags behind the spot price increase due to being in the off - season after the Mid - Autumn Festival. It is recommended that aggressive investors buy the 10 - or 11 - contract on dips, and pay attention to the positive spread opportunity between the 11 - and 1 - month contracts [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Analysis - **Sector and Variety Analysis**: Different sectors and varieties have different market logics, supply - demand situations, support and resistance levels, and corresponding trading strategies. For example, in the oilseed sector, Soybean No. 11 is expected to decline with a sideways trend, and it is advisable to wait and see; in the protein sector, the No. 01 contract of soybean meal is expected to be strong with a sideways trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions [12]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategy - **Basis Data**: The report provides the spot prices, price changes, main - contract basis, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors such as oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock farming [13][14]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: The daily data table shows the import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping periods, including arrival premiums, CBOT or ICE futures prices, CNF arrival prices, arrival - duty - paid prices, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing profit is zero [15][16]. - **Weekly Data**: The weekly data table presents the inventory and operating rates of various oils and oilseeds, such as the port inventory of soybeans, the oil - mill inventory of soybean meal, and the coastal - oil - factory inventory of rapeseeds [17]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Corn and Corn Starch Data**: The table shows the current values, week - on - week changes, and year - on - year changes of indicators such as the consumption of corn by deep - processing enterprises, the inventory of corn in deep - processing enterprises, the operating rate of starch enterprises, and the inventory of starch enterprises [18]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - **Pig Market Data**: It includes the spot prices, cost, profit, slaughter data, and other key weekly data of the pig market, such as the average weekly prices of二元 sows, 7KG outer - ternary piglets, and outer - ternary pigs [19]. - **Egg Market Data**: It provides data on the supply, demand, profit, and related spot prices of the egg market, such as the proportion of large, medium, and small eggs, the production rate, and the inventory in the production and circulation links [20]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock Farming (Pigs and Eggs)**: The charts track the closing prices of the main contracts, spot prices, and other related prices of pigs and eggs [22][24][25][29]. - **Oils and Oilseeds** - **Palm Oil**: The charts show the monthly production, export volume, inventory, and other data of Malaysian palm oil, as well as the import profit, import volume, and domestic inventory of palm oil [33][34][36]. - **Soybean Oil**: The charts display the soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, and crushing profit in the US, as well as the domestic soybean oil mill operating rate, inventory, and trading volume [39][40][41]. - **Peanuts**: The charts present the arrival and shipment volumes of peanuts in domestic wholesale markets, the peanut crushing profit, and the inventory of peanuts and peanut oil in pressing plants [46][48]. - **Feed Sector** - **Corn**: The charts track the spot price, futures closing price, basis, inventory, import volume, and consumption of corn, as well as the processing profit of corn ethanol in different regions [50][52][54]. - **Corn Starch**: The charts show the spot price, futures closing price, basis, operating rate, inventory, and profit of corn starch enterprises [57][59][60]. - **Rapeseed**: The charts display the spot prices of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, the basis, inventory, and pressing volume of rapeseed in coastal oil mills [62][64][66]. - **Soybean Meal**: The charts show the flowering and pod - setting rates of US soybeans, as well as the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in China [70][71]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils - **Volatility and Option Data**: The report provides the historical volatility of various varieties such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [73][77][80]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The report shows the warehouse receipt data of various varieties such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs, as well as the open interest of the pig and egg indices [83][84][89]