美国 银行首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett在最新研究报告中指出，当前流动性收紧已经对多个资产类 别造成明显冲击，美联储正面临持续降息的压力，而加密货币市场将成为首个感知政策转向的风向球。 今年以来，全球央行累计316次降息催生了流动性盛宴，直接推动AI投资热潮、日股剧烈波动及加密货 币投机行为。Hartnett预判，2026年美联储恐重演"政策投降"，被迫开启降息周期，届时长天期零息债 券(凭借长天期优势兑现利率下行估值溢价)、比特币(对流动性变化最敏感，常领先救市信号启动上 涨)、中型股(对融资成本敏感，降息后将展现盈利能力上涨与补涨股)等三类资产将最受益。 ...

Group 1 - The market is experiencing significant divergence in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate path for December, with previous optimism about rate cuts being tempered by recent hawkish statements from the Fed [1][4] - Michael Hartnett from Bank of America indicates that tightening liquidity is impacting multiple asset classes, suggesting that the cryptocurrency market will be the first to sense a shift in central bank policy [1][7] - Hartnett predicts that the current weakness in U.S. bank stocks is signaling a potential shift towards easing monetary policy, similar to signals observed in December 2018 [1][4] Group 2 - Hartnett forecasts that the Federal Reserve will likely initiate a rate-cutting cycle in 2026, benefiting long-duration zero-coupon bonds, Bitcoin, and mid-cap stocks [2] - Japan is facing a debt crisis, with a significant decline in 30-year government bonds and the yen nearing a 40-year low against the dollar, raising global liquidity concerns [3] - The combination of expansive fiscal policy and loose monetary policy in Japan is exacerbating the depreciation of the yen and pressure on government bonds [3] Group 3 - U.S. mid-cap stocks are showing a notable divergence in valuation and performance, indicating that the Fed's policy adjustments are lagging behind market demands [4] - The decline in bank and brokerage indices, which are sensitive to liquidity, serves as a leading indicator for potential policy shifts [4] - Hartnett emphasizes that the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, will act as an early warning system for changes in central bank policy due to its sensitivity to liquidity changes [7][8]