当地时间1月5日，日本10年期新发国债收益率一度上涨至2.125%，达到1999年2月以来的最高水平。市场担忧，日本国债收益率持续攀升或将影响全球金融 市场。 日本财政扩张央行加息促国债收益率攀升 中国社科院日本研究所研究员李清如：首先就是高市内阁的大规模财政扩张政策，这是国债收益率上扬的核心推手。出于对财政可持续性的不信任，投资者 对持有日本长期国债所要求的风险溢价不断增加，拉动长期收益率上行。同时，日本央行的加息预期升温，也给国债收益率带来上行压力。 国债收益率不断走高冲击日本经济民生 专家表示，日本国债收益率持续走高，对日本的经济民生已经造成多层次冲击，带来的风险正从金融市场向实体经济传导。 中国社科院日本研究所研究员李清如：日本政府债务存量非常庞大。在利率上升的情况下，融资成本无疑将会显著增加。利息支出的大幅膨胀，将严重挤占 财政资源，挤压教育、医疗等民生福利支出的政策空间，进一步削弱政府逆周期调节经济的能力。对于企业而言，加息效应传导至实体经济，会直接推高企 业的贷款利率与筹资的成本，进而挤压企业的盈利空间。 日本国债收益率攀升或冲击全球金融市场 市场担忧，日本国债收益率持续走高，将对全球金融市场造 ...

来源：兴证策略张启尧团队 一、国内外政策验证窗口落下帷幕，市场躁动具备良好基础 12月以来市场波动加大，背后反映的是国内外一系列影响流动性和基本面预期的重要事件相继迎来验证下，资金观望和博弈情绪较重。而随着上周美联储 议息会议、国内中央经济工作会议先后召开，本周美国就业及物价数据发布、日本央行加息靴子落地，至此国内外政策验证窗口基本落下帷幕，整体基调 好于市场预期，有望为躁动行情开启奠定良好基础。 一方面，美国本周发布的就业和物价数据没有引发更多悲观情绪，反而为联储进一步宽松提供更多想象空间。上周美联储降息落地后，市场仍在等待就业 和物价数据验证对美联储未来宽松的进一步指引。而本周发布的美国11月失业率略有回升、CPI数据大幅低于预期，市场继续定价软着陆，叠加特朗普表 示下一任美联储主席"需支持大幅降低利率"，为美联储进一步宽松打开想象空间。往后看，关键数据验证期过后，中长期的宽松叙事有望主导资产定价。 | | | | | | CME FEDWATCH TOOL - CONDITIONAL MEETING PROBABILITIES | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing narrow fluctuations due to competing policy expectations, with a significant focus on the potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate cut expectations [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The surge in interest rate hike expectations has led to a rise in Japanese government bond yields, while the 10-year US-Japan interest rate differential continues to narrow, limiting the upward movement of USD/JPY [2] - Concerns over "carry trade unwinding" have increased, as indicated by Bitcoin's rapid decline, reflecting investor caution amid tightening liquidity at year-end [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the Fed's policy path continues to disrupt the market, with a high probability of a rate cut in 2024, but significant fluctuations in December's rate cut expectations have been observed [2] Group 2: Divergence in Market Opinions - Wall Street shows a clear divide regarding the BoJ's actions in December, with Morgan Stanley considering a rate hike as the baseline scenario, while Goldman Sachs adopts a more cautious stance, suggesting that the BoJ may wait for more wage data [3] - The Japanese economy's fundamentals provide some support for policy adjustments, despite a temporary contraction in Q3 2025, with indicators such as labor market shortages and rising minimum wages suggesting a basis for wage increases [3] Group 3: Key Upcoming Events - Two critical events to watch are the release of the Japanese Tankan survey on December 15, which will influence BoJ policy decisions, and the Fed's December meeting, which could clarify rate cut expectations [4] - A potential divergence in policy between the BoJ and the Fed could fundamentally alter the valuation logic of USD/JPY, likely leading to a downward trend in the exchange rate if the BoJ initiates a rate hike while the Fed enters a rate cut cycle [4]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing significant divergence in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate path for December, with previous optimism about rate cuts being tempered by recent hawkish statements from the Fed [1][4] - Michael Hartnett from Bank of America indicates that tightening liquidity is impacting multiple asset classes, suggesting that the cryptocurrency market will be the first to sense a shift in central bank policy [1][7] - Hartnett predicts that the current weakness in U.S. bank stocks is signaling a potential shift towards easing monetary policy, similar to signals observed in December 2018 [1][4] Group 2 - Hartnett forecasts that the Federal Reserve will likely initiate a rate-cutting cycle in 2026, benefiting long-duration zero-coupon bonds, Bitcoin, and mid-cap stocks [2] - Japan is facing a debt crisis, with a significant decline in 30-year government bonds and the yen nearing a 40-year low against the dollar, raising global liquidity concerns [3] - The combination of expansive fiscal policy and loose monetary policy in Japan is exacerbating the depreciation of the yen and pressure on government bonds [3] Group 3 - U.S. mid-cap stocks are showing a notable divergence in valuation and performance, indicating that the Fed's policy adjustments are lagging behind market demands [4] - The decline in bank and brokerage indices, which are sensitive to liquidity, serves as a leading indicator for potential policy shifts [4] - Hartnett emphasizes that the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, will act as an early warning system for changes in central bank policy due to its sensitivity to liquidity changes [7][8]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong dollar (HKD) has experienced a significant appreciation against the US dollar, reaching a high of 7.7926 HKD per USD, marking a daily increase of 0.35% [1] - This appreciation represents the fifth consecutive trading day of strengthening for the HKD, breaking through multiple key levels from 7.85 to 7.80 [1] - Analysts attribute this dramatic rise to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's (HKMA) interventions to stabilize the HKD, leading to a qualitative change after a quantitative reduction in HKD reserves [1] - The narrowing interest rate differential between HKD and USD has prompted the unwinding of carry trades, contributing to the HKD's strength [1] - Additionally, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a surge of capital inflows into Hong Kong stocks have played a role in this appreciation [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japanese government bond (JGB) yields have been rising since the beginning of the month, with significant movements occurring this week, particularly in ultra-long-term bonds. The active unwinding of yen carry trades has reached its highest level since 2012, which may impact U.S. stocks and bonds. There is a concern that if the sell-off of dollar assets leads to capital flowing back to Japan, it could affect U.S.-Japan trade negotiations regarding "financial terms" [1][5]. Summary by Sections JGB Yield Movements - JGB yields have been consistently rising since the start of the month, with notable changes occurring this week, especially in ultra-long-term bonds. On May 20, the yield curve shifted from flat to steep, with 20-year and 30-year yields jumping by 13 and 12 basis points, respectively, contributing nearly half of the month's cumulative increase. This movement does not correlate with the trends in ultra-long-term U.S. Treasury yields [2][4]. Market Factors and Economic Context - The fundamental factors do not adequately explain the yield movements. Japan's real GDP contracted in Q1, and while core inflation has increased, it remains stable due to weakening service inflation. There is limited risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored, and no inflation data was released prior to the yield movements. Additionally, uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariff policies have led the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to maintain a wait-and-see approach regarding interest rate hikes [3][4]. Auction Results and Debt Concerns - The catalyst for the recent yield spike was the poor auction results for 20-year JGBs, marking the worst performance since 2012. This has heightened concerns about government debt, especially as the Japanese government discusses fiscal stimulus to address external demand pressures. With a government debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 200%, any borrowing during a rate hike cycle could exacerbate unsustainable debt risks. The draft budget for FY2025 indicates that debt redemption and interest payments will consume 15.3% and 9.1% of government spending, respectively, increasing the pressure on social security payments [4][5]. Broader Economic Implications - The yield movements reflect similar challenges faced by developed economies, where monetary policy is constrained and fiscal solutions are difficult to implement. Geopolitical tensions and supply chain fragmentation hinder a return to low inflation and low interest rates. The central banks, as primary buyers, struggle to expand their balance sheets to absorb the increased supply of bonds, leading to rising long-term interest rate risks. Inflation and credit risks will highlight the value of gold as an investment [4]. Potential Impact on U.S.-Japan Trade Negotiations - The unwinding of yen carry trades and the pressure on dollar assets may influence U.S.-Japan trade negotiations. There are calls for the BOJ to increase JGB purchases to stabilize market liquidity, which could lead to increased allocation pressures for state-owned financial institutions. The Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) holds approximately half of its portfolio in overseas securities, primarily in dollar assets. If the sell-off of dollar assets triggers capital inflows back to Japan, it may affect the discussions on "financial terms" in trade negotiations [5].