Group 1 - The market is experiencing significant divergence in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate path for December, with previous optimism about rate cuts being tempered by recent hawkish statements from the Fed [1][4] - Michael Hartnett from Bank of America indicates that tightening liquidity is impacting multiple asset classes, suggesting that the cryptocurrency market will be the first to sense a shift in central bank policy [1][7] - Hartnett predicts that the current weakness in U.S. bank stocks is signaling a potential shift towards easing monetary policy, similar to signals observed in December 2018 [1][4] Group 2 - Hartnett forecasts that the Federal Reserve will likely initiate a rate-cutting cycle in 2026, benefiting long-duration zero-coupon bonds, Bitcoin, and mid-cap stocks [2] - Japan is facing a debt crisis, with a significant decline in 30-year government bonds and the yen nearing a 40-year low against the dollar, raising global liquidity concerns [3] - The combination of expansive fiscal policy and loose monetary policy in Japan is exacerbating the depreciation of the yen and pressure on government bonds [3] Group 3 - U.S. mid-cap stocks are showing a notable divergence in valuation and performance, indicating that the Fed's policy adjustments are lagging behind market demands [4] - The decline in bank and brokerage indices, which are sensitive to liquidity, serves as a leading indicator for potential policy shifts [4] - Hartnett emphasizes that the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, will act as an early warning system for changes in central bank policy due to its sensitivity to liquidity changes [7][8]

钛媒体App 8月20日消息，8月19日，港元对美元汇率急速拉升，截至18时发稿时，港元对美元最高升至 7.7926，日内涨幅达0.35%。而这已是港元对美元汇率走强的连续第5个交易日。在维系了近50天7.85港 元兑1美元的弱方兑换保证水平之后，近期港元对美元汇率"扶摇直上"，接连涨破7.85至7.80的6个关 口。分析人士认为，本轮港元的"戏剧性"显著升值，源于香港金管局为稳定港元汇率屡次出手后的"量 变到质变"——港元总结余下降到一定程度后，港元与美元利差收窄致使套息交易平仓。此外也与美联 储降息预期及近期南下资金汹涌"扫货"港股有关。（上证报） ...

智通财经APP获悉，兴业证券发布研究报告称，日债利率自月初持续上升，但异动发生于本周，集中于 超长期债券。此外，日元套息交易平仓活跃度已突破2012年以来新高，也可能对美股美债产生冲击。进 一步地，若美元资产抛售引发资金回流日本，关注是否会影响美日贸易谈判对"金融条款"的涉及。 兴业证券主要观点如下： 日债利率自月初持续上升，但异动发生于本周，集中于超长期债券。虽然5月日债利率持续上升，但10 年期日债和美债利率的趋势、涨幅基本一致，利率上行压力或来自美债市场的传导。值得关注的异动发 生于本周二(5月20日)，日债利率曲线从走平转为陡峭，20、30年期利率分别跳升13和12基点，单日即 贡献近半当月累计涨幅，且该异动无法从超长期美债利率走势中找到对应。 市场讨论的部分因素对异动的解释力或许不足。 利率上行本已加剧市场对政府债务的担忧，财政刺激方案进一步催化情绪。5月20日超长期债券利率跳 升的催化事件为20年期日债拍卖遇冷——利率已处于上升通道，而日本政府近期讨论财政刺激以应对外 需压力，杠杆率超200%的日本政府若在加息周期举债将加剧债务的不可持续风险。日本2025财年政府 预算草案显示，政府支出中债务赎回 ...