Fundamental Analysis - The ongoing tensions in Iran have become a significant driver of risk aversion in the market, with the U.S. military deploying 11 F-22 fighter jets to Israel and Iran conducting military exercises, indicating that military confrontation risks remain high [1] - Iran's foreign minister expressed a desire to reach a fair agreement with the U.S. as soon as possible, creating a "fighting while negotiating" ambiguity that heightens market uncertainty and underscores gold's value as a safe-haven asset [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Cook noted that the AI investment boom could raise the neutral interest rate in the short term and may not alleviate the unemployment wave driven by AI without triggering inflation risks, revealing the complexity of future macroeconomic management [1] - The potential for stagflation, as indicated by Cook's comments on inflation risks, enhances gold's dual appeal as an inflation hedge and a safe haven, despite other officials suggesting that AI will not drastically impact the job market [1] - Overall, geopolitical tensions and the potential inflation risks highlighted by Federal Reserve officials create a favorable macro environment for gold prices, reinforcing its status as a hedge against complex risk assets [1] Technical Analysis - Gold (XAUUSD) has entered an adjustment phase after reaching a historical high, but the bullish trend is recovering, with prices moving out of a consolidation range and the moving average system indicating a clear bullish trend [4] - The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, suggesting a potential adjustment in the short term, while the CCI indicator in the overbought zone indicates strong bullish momentum [4] - The trading strategy suggests looking for buying opportunities on dips [4] Day Trading Strategy - A buy position is suggested around 5144.2, with a stop loss at 5090.0 and a target range of 5249.5 to 5406.0 [5] Silver (XAGUSD) Analysis - Silver prices have retraced after reaching a new high but are now warming up again, indicating a continuation of the bullish trend, with key support levels within the previous consolidation range to watch [7] - The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating a potential adjustment opportunity in the short term, while the CCI indicator near the overbought zone suggests strong overall bullish momentum [7] - The trading strategy recommends looking for buying opportunities on price pullbacks [7] Economic Calendar - Key economic indicators to watch include the German Gfk Consumer Confidence Index, the final value of Germany's Q4 GDP year-on-year, and the Eurozone's CPI year-on-year and month-on-month final values [8]

Group 1 - Global economic conditions remain divergent, with the Eurozone and Japan expected to see economic improvements in Q4 due to stable internal demand and recovering exports, while the US economy is projected to slow down due to a cooling labor market and declining investment growth [1] - The US labor market is showing signs of cooling, with GDP growth rates for the first three quarters of 2025 recorded at -0.6%, 3.8%, and 4.3%, respectively, influenced by significant fluctuations in net exports [3] - The US inflation rate unexpectedly dropped from 3% in September to 2.7% in November, exceeding market expectations and leading to increased market anticipation for interest rate cuts [6] Group 2 - The US dollar index is expected to experience a short-term rebound in early 2026, but the overall trend may remain volatile due to mixed market sentiments and the impact of US economic data [9][10] - The Euro is anticipated to maintain a high-level fluctuation in early 2026, supported by a narrowing interest rate differential with the US and potential geopolitical events affecting market stability [13] - The Japanese yen is likely to remain within an upward channel, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook and market risk sentiment [15] Group 3 - The Malaysian ringgit is projected to appreciate against the US dollar, supported by stable economic growth and a low unemployment rate, despite a slight decline in trade surplus [22][23] - The South African rand is expected to show a "strong oscillation" pattern in 2026, driven by internal economic improvements and external factors such as US interest rate cuts and commodity price increases [46][47]

外储连续6个月超3.3万亿美元 2月7日，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，截至2026年1月末，我国外汇储备规模为33991亿美元，较2025 年12月末上升412亿美元，升幅为1.23%。 值得一提的是，这也是2015年12月以来，我国外汇储备规模达到的最高水平。另从上升幅度来看，2026 年1月末外储规模上升，环比上升幅度为2024年1月以来最高。业内认为，这背后主要受当月美元指数下 跌和全球金融资产价格总体上涨双重驱动。 对于当月外汇储备规模变动的原因，国家外汇管理局指出，2026年1月，受主要经济体财政政策、货币 政策及预期等因素影响，美元指数下跌，全球主要金融资产价格总体上涨。汇率折算和资产价格变化等 因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规模上升。我国经济运行稳中有进，发展韧性进一步彰显，为外汇储备规 模保持基本稳定提供支撑。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青指出，受美国司法部对美联储主席鲍威尔发起刑事调查、美国政府对欧政 策再起波澜，以及市场警惕日本政府可能出手干预汇市等因素的综合影响，1月美元指数下跌1.2%。这 会推动我国外汇储备中非美元资产升值，推高以美元计价的外汇储备规模。 "我们估计，1月这一因素的影响在1 ...

Core Insights - China's foreign exchange reserves have reached approximately $3.4 trillion, marking a ten-year high, with a notable increase of $41.2 billion or 1.23% from December 2025 to January 2026 [1][3] - The increase in foreign reserves is attributed to multiple factors, including a weaker US dollar and rising global financial asset prices, which have positively impacted the valuation of non-USD assets [3][4] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has been steadily increasing its gold reserves for 15 consecutive months, reaching 7.419 million ounces, with a cautious monthly increase of 40,000 ounces [3][4] Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of January 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves stand at $33,991 billion, just shy of the $3.4 trillion mark, reflecting a consistent upward trend since July 2025 [3][4] - The stability of foreign reserves is seen as a significant achievement amid global economic fluctuations, providing a solid foundation for the Chinese economy [3][5] Gold Reserves - The PBOC's strategy for gold accumulation is characterized by a "small steps" approach, with monthly increases kept below 100,000 ounces since March 2025, indicating a cautious and strategic accumulation [4][5] - The rationale behind increasing gold reserves includes optimizing the reserve structure and mitigating risks associated with global uncertainties, as gold serves as a non-credit asset [4][5] Economic Implications - The combination of stable foreign reserves and cautious gold accumulation is aimed at strengthening the economic safety net for China, supporting the stability of the RMB exchange rate and providing resilience against external shocks [5] - The long-term goal of increasing gold reserves is to enhance the international credibility of the RMB, facilitating cross-border trade and investment [5]

已处于3.3万亿美元以上相对偏高水平 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬分析，1月份，受多重因素叠加影响，美元延续弱势：一是特朗普在委内瑞拉、伊朗、格陵兰岛等多地开展或威胁军事打 击，加剧了地缘政治风险，美元信用风险高企；二是特朗普暗示对美元贬值持开放态度，引发市场抛售潮。美联储委员释放鹰派信号，加之沃什当选美联 储主席的预期发酵，美债震荡上行，全球资产价格整体上涨。 温彬指出，受资产价格变化与汇率波动综合影响，1月末外储环比上涨412亿美元至33991亿美元。汇率方面，1月份，美元指数下跌1.2%至97.1，月中一度 跌至四年来低点95附近。非美货币齐涨，日元、欧元、英镑兑美元分别上涨1.23%、0.9%、1.6%。资产价格方面，十年期美国国债收益率上涨8个基点至 4.26%。全球股市整体震荡偏强，标普500指数环比上涨1.4%，欧洲斯托克指数上涨3.4%，东京日经指数上涨5.9%。 每经记者｜张寿林 每经编辑｜段炼 张益铭 2月7日，国家外汇管理局披露，截至2026年1月末，我国外汇储备规模为33991亿美元，较2025年12月末上升412亿美元，升幅为1.23%。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青指出，1月末外储规 ...

2月7日，国家外汇管理局统计公布数据显示，截至2026年1月末，我国外汇储备规模为33991亿美元，较 2025年12月末上升412亿美元，升幅为1.23%。同期央行数据显示，1月末黄金储备为7419万盎司，较上 月末增加4万盎司。 黄金储备方面，2026年1月末官方黄金储备连续第十五个月增加，但增量连续第十一个月处于低位，符 合市场预期。伴随全球地缘政治风险居高不下，以及美联储持续降息，1月国际金价延续快速上涨势 头，这是当月央行增持黄金规模继续处于偏低水平的一个原因。 王青认为，近期央行在国际金价持续大幅上涨、屡创历史新高过程中持续小幅增持黄金，释放了优化国 际储备的信号。从优化国际储备结构、稳慎扎实推进人民币国际化以及应对当前国际环境变化等角度出 发，接下来央行增持黄金仍是大方向，近期国际金价大幅波动对央行增持黄金的影响有限。 图片来源：视觉中国 来源：北京日报客户端 记者：潘福达 2026年1月末外储规模上升，环比上升幅度为2024年1月以来最高。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对此解 读表示，这主要受当月美元指数下跌和全球金融资产价格总体上涨双重驱动。受美国司法部对美联储主 席鲍威尔发起刑事调查，美国政府 ...

2025年关税的成本几乎完全由美国企业承担，但对宏观经济的影响存在滞后效应。 根据美国财政部数据，2025年美国关税收入增长迅猛。2025年全年，美国国土安全部共征收2870亿美元关税和缴费，同比增长192%。其中，约三分之一在 第四季度增收，较上一季度增长了5.2%。 与此同时，美国通胀虽然仍明显高于2%的目标水平，但并未激增。2025年消费者物价指数（CPI）在年初升至3%以上后，年中开始回落，年底稳定在 2.7%。剔除食品能源后的核心CPI全年同比增长2.6%，远低于经济学家此前预期的3%。个人消费支出物价指数（PCE）11月同比增长2.8%，生产者价格指数 （PPI）11月同比上涨3%。 关税为何没有导致通胀飙升 对于关税为何没有导致通胀飙升，主要有以下几种解释： 原因1：实际关税规模远小于法定税率 到目前为止，美国实际执行的关税政策规模远小于其宣称的规模。 IMF原第一副总裁、哈佛大学经济学教授吉塔·戈皮纳特与芝加哥大学经济学教授布伦特·奈曼的研究指出，美国实际征收的关税税率显著低于官方公布的法 定税率。 截至2025年9月，美国平均贸易加权关税税率在2025年4月达到32.8%的峰值。然而，如果按 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shun Sodium Co., Ltd. has experienced a continuous three-day trading limit increase, indicating strong market interest and momentum in the stock [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Shun Sodium Co., Ltd. achieved a trading limit increase for three consecutive days, marking a significant upward trend in its stock price [1] - On the latest trading day, the stock reached a trading limit at 9:36 AM with a transaction volume of 950 million yuan and a turnover rate of 12.63% [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The data center power supply concept has gained attention in the market, driven by the global AI investment boom, which has increased demand for related power infrastructure [1] - Institutional research reports indicate that from 2025 to 2030, the global IT load is expected to see a substantial cumulative increase, which may enhance demand in the relevant sectors [1]

日本、韩国股市集体爆发！ 韩国股市大涨，芯片股爆发 2月3日午后，日本及韩国股市持续上行。其中，日经225指数盘中暴涨2000点，涨幅一度超过4%，再创历史新 高；韩国综合指数一度大涨超6%，完全收复了昨日的跌幅。 半导体芯片股集体走强。截至券商中国发稿，SK海力士、三星电子涨幅均超过8%，爱德万测试涨超7%，韩美 半导体涨超6%，东京电子涨超5%。 日本股市大涨2000点 周二，日本股市大幅拉升，日经225指数盘中一度涨超4%，东证指数涨幅超过3%。截至券商中国发稿，日经 225指数上涨超2000点，涨幅为3.86%，东证指数上涨3.09%。 消息面上，日本财务大臣片山皋月2月3日表示，日本首相高市早苗在上周末并没有过度强调日元贬值的好处。 此举暗示片山皋月正试图维持市场对政府干预风险的警惕。 片山皋月表示："高市早苗只是对日元汇率做出了教科书式的回应，并没有特别强调日元疲软的利好。"她补充 称，自己赞同高市早苗的立场，即日元贬值有利有弊。 片山皋月还强调，日本将继续与美国密切协调，暗示双方有可能在市场上采取联合行动。她表示，"日本和美 国一直在进行协调，包括我这个层面以及货币政策高级官员层面。我们在去年9 ...

日本、韩国股市集体爆发！ 2月3日午后，日本及韩国股市持续上行。其中，日经225指数盘中暴涨2000点，涨幅一度超过4%，再创 历史新高；韩国综合指数一度大涨超6%，完全收复了昨日的跌幅。 半导体芯片股集体走强。截至券商中国发稿，SK海力士、三星电子涨幅均超过8%，爱德万测试涨超 7%，韩美半导体涨超6%，东京电子涨超5%。 日本股市大涨2000点 周二，日本股市大幅拉升，日经225指数盘中一度涨超4%，东证指数涨幅超过3%。截至券商中国发 稿，日经225指数上涨超2000点，涨幅为3.86%，东证指数上涨3.09%。 消息面上，日本财务大臣片山皋月2月3日表示，日本首相高市早苗在上周末并没有过度强调日元贬值的 好处。此举暗示片山皋月正试图维持市场对政府干预风险的警惕。 片山皋月表示："高市早苗只是对日元汇率做出了教科书式的回应，并没有特别强调日元疲软的利 好。"她补充称，自己赞同高市早苗的立场，即日元贬值有利有弊。 片山皋月还强调，日本将继续与美国密切协调，暗示双方有可能在市场上采取联合行动。她表示，"日 本和美国一直在进行协调，包括我这个层面以及货币政策高级官员层面。我们在去年9月达成了一项联 合声明，因 ...