摩根大通经济学家在报告中指出，预计泰国央行将从现在起至2027年期间将政策利率维持在1%不变， 以在不确定性上升之际保留政策空间。政策声明措辞表明，进一步降息的门槛较高，且央行已暗示当前 政策利率反映了足够宽松的货币政策立场。得益于2025年第四季度优于预期的表现及大选后政治局势的 稳定，泰国经济今年也可能进一步提速。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintains the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% with no new rate adjustment announced, while signaling a significant rate cut of 150 basis points in 2026, which is expected to create approximately one million jobs without triggering inflation rebound [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has been steadily shrinking, with a reduction of $276.59 billion in 2025, bringing the total to $6.54 trillion, including a decrease of $192.59 billion in mortgage-backed securities and $76.16 billion in Treasury holdings [1] - There is a notable divergence between market expectations and the Federal Reserve's internal discussions regarding future rate paths, with some officials advocating for maintaining rates while the market anticipates two rate cuts in 2026 [2][3] Group 2 - The upcoming non-farm payroll data, expected to show an increase of 73,000 jobs and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.5%, is seen as a critical indicator for the timing of the rate cut cycle [2] - The Federal Reserve is currently in a "policy wait-and-see" phase, with stable rates and gradual balance sheet reduction as the short-term focus, while the 150 basis points rate cut expectation sets the medium to long-term policy direction [3] - The management strategy of the balance sheet remains contentious, with some potential leadership candidates advocating for a more aggressive reduction, raising concerns about market liquidity fluctuations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to maintain its key interest rates, indicating a consensus on the current policy stance and signaling a pause in the rate-cutting cycle as inflation approaches target levels [1][2] Interest Rate Decision - The ECB kept the deposit facility rate at 2%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, aligning with market expectations [1] - This marks the second consecutive meeting where rates have been held steady following a pause in rate cuts in July [1] Inflation Outlook - ECB President Lagarde stated that the process of reducing inflation has concluded, with current inflation levels nearing the bank's target [2] - The latest forecasts predict Eurozone inflation to average 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027, with core inflation (excluding food and energy) expected to be 2.4% in 2025, dropping to 1.9% in 2026, and 1.8% in 2027 [2] Asset Purchase Programs - The ECB is gradually reducing its Asset Purchase Program (APP) and Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) portfolios at a stable and predictable pace [2] - Lagarde noted that the sovereign bond market in the Eurozone is functioning orderly, and there was no discussion of the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) during the meeting [2] Economic Growth Projections - The Eurozone's economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised upward to 1.2% from 0.9%, reflecting improved business activity and consumer confidence [4] - Growth expectations for 2026 have been slightly downgraded to 1.0%, while the 2027 forecast remains at 1.3% [4] - Recent data indicates that Eurozone business activity continued to expand in August, with German business confidence reaching its highest level since 2022, showcasing resilience amid trade tensions and geopolitical challenges [4] External Risks - Market participants believe the ECB has entered a period of policy observation, with a low probability of further rate cuts this year [3] - However, there are mixed internal views, with some officials suggesting potential rate cuts in December if the Euro continues to strengthen or external uncertainties increase [3] - External challenges include anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could reignite Euro appreciation, and new U.S. tariffs and immigration policies that may heighten economic uncertainty in Europe [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the unexpected strength of the U.S. non-farm payroll data for June, which has led to a significant decrease in the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month, with the dollar index rising sharply and the offshore RMB falling below the 7.17 mark against the dollar [1][2] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an increase of 147,000 non-farm jobs in June, surpassing the expected 110,000, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, contrary to the anticipated rise to 4.3% [1] - Following the release of the employment data, market expectations for a July rate cut by the Federal Reserve diminished, with the probability of a rate cut in September also decreasing to around 80% [1][2] Group 2 - Atlanta Fed President Bostic indicated that high inflation in the U.S. may persist for some time, suggesting that businesses might need a year or longer to adapt to changes in trade and other policies, which implies a need for patience before considering rate cuts [2] - The U.S. House of Representatives passed President Trump's controversial "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill, which has faced criticism for reducing federal aid, increasing long-term debt, and providing tax cuts for the wealthy and large corporations [2] - Analysts from CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities expressed differing views on the implications of the non-farm report, with CITIC suggesting that the report indicates a weakening job market, while Huatai noted that despite the strong June data, external factors like tariffs and immigration could negatively impact job growth in the third quarter [2]