Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to maintain its key interest rates, indicating a consensus on the current policy stance and signaling a pause in the rate-cutting cycle as inflation approaches target levels [1][2] Interest Rate Decision - The ECB kept the deposit facility rate at 2%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, aligning with market expectations [1] - This marks the second consecutive meeting where rates have been held steady following a pause in rate cuts in July [1] Inflation Outlook - ECB President Lagarde stated that the process of reducing inflation has concluded, with current inflation levels nearing the bank's target [2] - The latest forecasts predict Eurozone inflation to average 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027, with core inflation (excluding food and energy) expected to be 2.4% in 2025, dropping to 1.9% in 2026, and 1.8% in 2027 [2] Asset Purchase Programs - The ECB is gradually reducing its Asset Purchase Program (APP) and Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) portfolios at a stable and predictable pace [2] - Lagarde noted that the sovereign bond market in the Eurozone is functioning orderly, and there was no discussion of the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) during the meeting [2] Economic Growth Projections - The Eurozone's economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised upward to 1.2% from 0.9%, reflecting improved business activity and consumer confidence [4] - Growth expectations for 2026 have been slightly downgraded to 1.0%, while the 2027 forecast remains at 1.3% [4] - Recent data indicates that Eurozone business activity continued to expand in August, with German business confidence reaching its highest level since 2022, showcasing resilience amid trade tensions and geopolitical challenges [4] External Risks - Market participants believe the ECB has entered a period of policy observation, with a low probability of further rate cuts this year [3] - However, there are mixed internal views, with some officials suggesting potential rate cuts in December if the Euro continues to strengthen or external uncertainties increase [3] - External challenges include anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could reignite Euro appreciation, and new U.S. tariffs and immigration policies that may heighten economic uncertainty in Europe [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the unexpected strength of the U.S. non-farm payroll data for June, which has led to a significant decrease in the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month, with the dollar index rising sharply and the offshore RMB falling below the 7.17 mark against the dollar [1][2] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an increase of 147,000 non-farm jobs in June, surpassing the expected 110,000, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, contrary to the anticipated rise to 4.3% [1] - Following the release of the employment data, market expectations for a July rate cut by the Federal Reserve diminished, with the probability of a rate cut in September also decreasing to around 80% [1][2] Group 2 - Atlanta Fed President Bostic indicated that high inflation in the U.S. may persist for some time, suggesting that businesses might need a year or longer to adapt to changes in trade and other policies, which implies a need for patience before considering rate cuts [2] - The U.S. House of Representatives passed President Trump's controversial "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill, which has faced criticism for reducing federal aid, increasing long-term debt, and providing tax cuts for the wealthy and large corporations [2] - Analysts from CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities expressed differing views on the implications of the non-farm report, with CITIC suggesting that the report indicates a weakening job market, while Huatai noted that despite the strong June data, external factors like tariffs and immigration could negatively impact job growth in the third quarter [2]