Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain the deposit facility rate at 2%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, aligning with market expectations [1] - ECB President Lagarde stated that the process of reducing inflation has concluded, with current inflation levels nearing the central bank's target, and future rate decisions will depend on data from upcoming meetings [2] - The ECB's latest forecasts indicate that overall inflation in the Eurozone is expected to average 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027, with core inflation projected at 2.4% in 2025, dropping to 1.9% in 2026, and 1.8% in 2027, suggesting medium-term inflation stability around 2% [2] Group 2 - Market participants believe the ECB has entered a policy observation phase, with a low probability of further rate cuts this year, and rates likely to remain stable into next year [3] - External risks persist, including potential impacts from the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate cuts and the U.S. government's new tariff policies, which could increase uncertainty in the European economy [3] - The Eurozone's economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised upward to 1.2%, reflecting improved business activity and consumer confidence, while growth expectations for 2026 and 2027 are 1.0% and 1.3%, respectively [4]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to maintain its key interest rates, indicating a consensus on the current policy stance and signaling a pause in the rate-cutting cycle as inflation approaches target levels [1][2] Interest Rate Decision - The ECB kept the deposit facility rate at 2%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, aligning with market expectations [1] - This marks the second consecutive meeting where rates have been held steady following a pause in rate cuts in July [1] Inflation Outlook - ECB President Lagarde stated that the process of reducing inflation has concluded, with current inflation levels nearing the bank's target [2] - The latest forecasts predict Eurozone inflation to average 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027, with core inflation (excluding food and energy) expected to be 2.4% in 2025, dropping to 1.9% in 2026, and 1.8% in 2027 [2] Asset Purchase Programs - The ECB is gradually reducing its Asset Purchase Program (APP) and Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) portfolios at a stable and predictable pace [2] - Lagarde noted that the sovereign bond market in the Eurozone is functioning orderly, and there was no discussion of the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) during the meeting [2] Economic Growth Projections - The Eurozone's economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised upward to 1.2% from 0.9%, reflecting improved business activity and consumer confidence [4] - Growth expectations for 2026 have been slightly downgraded to 1.0%, while the 2027 forecast remains at 1.3% [4] - Recent data indicates that Eurozone business activity continued to expand in August, with German business confidence reaching its highest level since 2022, showcasing resilience amid trade tensions and geopolitical challenges [4] External Risks - Market participants believe the ECB has entered a period of policy observation, with a low probability of further rate cuts this year [3] - However, there are mixed internal views, with some officials suggesting potential rate cuts in December if the Euro continues to strengthen or external uncertainties increase [3] - External challenges include anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could reignite Euro appreciation, and new U.S. tariffs and immigration policies that may heighten economic uncertainty in Europe [3]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to maintain its key interest rates unchanged, signaling the end of the disinflation process and indicating a potential shift towards tightening monetary policy in the future [4][5]. Interest Rate Decision - The ECB has kept the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40% [4]. - This marks the second consecutive meeting where the ECB has opted to keep rates unchanged, aligning with market expectations [4]. Inflation Outlook - Current inflation levels are near the ECB's medium-term target of 2%, with projections for overall inflation at 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027 [4]. - The ECB has revised its inflation forecasts upward for 2025 and 2026 while lowering the forecast for 2027 [4]. - Core inflation, excluding energy and food prices, is expected to be 2.4% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 1.8% in 2027 [4]. Economic Growth Projections - The ECB anticipates a GDP growth rate of 1.2% for 2025, an increase from the previous forecast of 0.9%, while projecting a slight decrease to 1.0% for 2026 [4]. - Economic growth is supported by resilient demand and reduced trade uncertainty, with improvements noted in both manufacturing and services sectors [5]. Monetary Policy Direction - The ECB is prepared to adjust all tools within its mandate to ensure inflation stability at the 2% target and smooth monetary policy transmission [5]. - Analysts suggest that the ECB's decision reflects improved economic data and recent trade agreements, which bolster the regional economic outlook [5][6]. Market Reactions - The EUR/USD exchange rate has been rising, currently reported at 1.17364 [8]. - There is a growing consensus among economists that the ECB's easing cycle may have concluded, with future actions potentially leaning towards interest rate hikes rather than cuts [6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market continued its strong rebound this week due to dovish stances from Fed officials, stable rate - cut expectations, and increased market risk - aversion. Despite economic data showing resilience, the dollar was not supported, and the "asymmetry" in economic indicators affected the long - end yield of US Treasuries, boosting the monetary attribute of gold. The market is awaiting the July core PCE data and the next non - farm payroll report. If inflation continues to slow and employment data weakens, the expectation of Fed rate cuts will rise, potentially driving gold prices higher. The Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiation is a variable, but currently, the willingness of Russia to reach a cease - fire is low. It is recommended to make light - position layouts on dips [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: After the Jackson Hole meeting, Fed officials showed dovish stances, and Trump's actions increased risk - aversion. The US Q2 GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.3%, the labor market was resilient, and inflation data showed a slowdown. However, the dollar was not supported, and the precious metals market remained resilient [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The July core PCE data on Friday night will be a key guide. If it shows inflation slowdown, the expectation of Fed rate cuts may rise, and gold prices may break new highs. The non - farm payroll report next Friday is also crucial. A slowdown in employment data will boost rate - cut expectations. The Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiation may affect gold's safe - haven property, but its impact is currently limited [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to make light - position layouts on dips. The expected price ranges for Shanghai gold 2510 contract are 750 - 800 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai silver 2510 contract are 9350 - 9450 yuan/kilogram. For London gold, it is 3350 - 3450 dollars/ounce, and for London silver, it is 38.5 - 39.5 dollars/ounce [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes**: Gold and silver prices rose this week. As of August 29, 2025, COMEX silver was at 39.55 dollars/ounce, up 0.34% month - on - month; Shanghai silver 2510 contract was at 9386 yuan/kilogram, up 2.11% month - on - month. COMEX gold was at 3470 dollars/ounce, up 1.54% month - on - month; Shanghai gold 2510 contract was at 785.12 yuan/gram, up 1.52% month - on - month [9][11]. - **ETF Holdings**: The net holdings of gold and silver ETFs on the foreign market increased this week. As of August 28, 2025, the SLV silver ETF holdings were 15333 tons, up 0.40% month - on - month, and the SPDR gold ETF holdings were 967.94 tons, up 1.20% month - on - month [13][17]. - **Speculative Positions**: As of August 19, 2025, COMEX gold speculative net positions decreased, while silver speculative net positions increased. The total and net positions of COMEX gold decreased, while those of COMEX silver increased [19][23]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of August 19, 2025, CFTC gold long positions decreased week - on - week, and short positions increased [25][29]. - **Basis**: The basis of gold and silver in the Shanghai market weakened this week. As of August 28, 2025, the gold basis was - 3.22 yuan/gram, down 51.9% month - on - month, and the silver basis was - 28 yuan/kilogram, down 247.40% month - on - month [31][33]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased this week, while that of silver decreased, showing a differentiated trend from COMEX inventory. As of August 28, 2025, COMEX gold inventory was 38764636.49 ounces, up 0.49% month - on - month; Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory was 37455 kilograms, up 3.05% month - on - month. COMEX silver inventory was 508778300 ounces, up 0.10% month - on - month; Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory was 1109123 kilograms, down 2.80% month - on - month [35][39]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand Situation 3.3.1 Silver Industry - **Imports**: As of July 2025, China's silver imports decreased slightly, while silver ore imports rebounded significantly. The monthly value of silver imports was 252977.88 kilograms, down 7.46% month - on - month, and the monthly value of silver ore imports was 154158134.00 kilograms, up 22.32% month - on - month [41][45]. - **Downstream Demand**: As of July 2025, due to the growth of silver demand in semiconductors, the growth rate of integrated circuit production continued to rise. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4690000.00 pieces, and the year - on - year growth rate was 15% [47][51]. - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The silver supply and demand were in a tight - balance pattern. As of the end of 2024, industrial demand was 680.5 million ounces, up 4% year - on - year; coin and net bar demand was 190.9 million ounces, down 22% year - on - year; silver ETF net investment demand was 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the previous year; total demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year. The supply - demand gap was narrowing year by year. As of the end of 2024, total supply was 1015.1 million ounces, up 2% year - on - year; total demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year; the supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, down 26% month - on - month [53][57][61]. 3.3.2 Gold Industry - **Prices**: This week, the gold recycling price and gold jewelry prices rose with the gold price. As of August 28, 2025, the Chinese gold recycling price was 776.40 yuan/gram, up 0.83% week - on - week. The prices of Laofengxiang, Chow Tai Fook, and Zhou Dafu gold also increased [63][65]. - **Supply and Demand**: According to the World Gold Council, in Q2 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs declined slightly. The pace of central bank gold purchases slowed, and the high gold price led to a marginal decline in gold jewelry manufacturing demand [67]. 3.4 Macro and Options - **Macro Data**: Recently, the expectation of rate cuts has risen significantly, and the dollar has continued to weaken. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread widened, the CBOE gold volatility increased, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio decreased. The 10 - year breakeven inflation rate in the US increased slightly this week. In August 2025, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by about 2.18 tons [73][78][83][88].

Inflation Data - The U.S. June CPI year-on-year increased to 2.7%, matching expectations, while the previous value was 2.4%[2] - Month-on-month CPI rose by 0.3%, consistent with expectations, compared to a previous value of 0.1%[2] - Core CPI year-on-year was 2.9%, slightly below the expected 3.0%, and the previous value was 2.8%[2] Economic Implications - The rise in overall inflation is attributed to increased energy prices, tariff impacts, and expectations from new fiscal legislation[2] - The core CPI's slight underperformance is influenced by weak new car sales and a cooling housing market[2] - The risk of "stagflation" in the U.S. economy is increasing due to the divergence between inflation data and weak non-farm private employment figures[2] Energy Prices - Energy prices rebounded due to geopolitical tensions, with energy goods prices changing from -2.4% to 1.0% month-on-month[2] - Energy service prices maintained a high growth rate, increasing from 0.4% to 0.9% month-on-month[2] Tariff Effects - Core goods prices increased year-on-year from 0.3% to 0.7%, with clothing being a major contributor[2] - The month-on-month change in core goods prices rose from 0.0% to 0.2%[2] Housing Market - The housing market continues to cool, with housing prices year-on-year decreasing from 3.9% to 3.8%[2] - The NAHB housing market index fell to 32, the lowest point in 2023[2] Market Expectations - Following the CPI release, market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in Q3 have diminished, with a 53.5% probability for a rate cut in September[4] - The strong inflation data does not support a rate cut, increasing the likelihood of the Fed having to choose between stabilizing employment and controlling inflation[2]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's Taylor anticipates stronger disinflationary forces to emerge later this year [1] Group 1 - The expectation of stronger disinflationary forces suggests a potential easing of inflation pressures in the UK economy [1] - This outlook may influence monetary policy decisions and interest rate adjustments by the Bank of England [1]

Group 1 - The Bank of England's Taylor anticipates stronger disinflationary forces to emerge later this year [1]

Core Points - The European Central Bank (ECB) meeting minutes suggest that a rate cut in April may be viewed as a preemptive implementation of the policy adjustment planned for June [1] - The primary focus in the short term will be on combating inflation [1] - The Eurozone has developed a certain level of resilience against shocks [1] - The Euro appears to be transitioning into a safe-haven currency [1] - Some participants may feel comfortable with a 50 basis point rate cut [1] - However, the risks of rising inflation have not dissipated [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to cut interest rates on May 20 due to the current economic conditions and inflation data aligning with expectations [1][3][4] - The overall consumer price index (CPI) in Australia remained unchanged at a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, while the trimmed mean inflation rate fell to 2.9%, both within the RBA's target range of 2%-3% [1][4] - Analysts believe that the RBA's decision to lower interest rates is a necessary measure to support economic growth amid rising global uncertainties and domestic economic challenges [2][3] Group 2 - Australia's economy has shown signs of weakness, with the latest data indicating that the country only recently emerged from a period of negative per capita GDP growth that lasted for seven consecutive quarters [2] - The ongoing trade tensions initiated by the Trump administration have raised concerns about a potential recession in Australia, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicting a loss of AUD 13 billion to the Australian economy due to these trade policies [3][4] - The RBA's anticipated rate cut is seen as a response to the softening labor market and the need to mitigate the risks posed by global economic uncertainties [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Guindos expects the process of reducing inflation to continue, indicating a sustained focus on managing inflationary pressures in the Eurozone [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - The ECB does not plan to make significant adjustments to its existing tools, suggesting a stable approach to monetary policy in the near term [1]