交易所出手为市场投机情绪降温，自7月30日当晚夜盘交易时起，玻璃期货2509合约的日内平今仓交易 手续费标准上调至10元/手，不过市场投机交易热情不减，连年已经展开移仓的09合约今日仍增仓超14 万手，成交量接近284万手，处于商品市场首位。此外昨日重要会议与市场此前预期一致未释放增量财 政政策信号，强调用好之前的政策包，且未对地产有更多的提振，但延续之前的高质量发展指引，以及 继续推进反内卷。 玻璃现货市场整体承压，交投区域分化明显，厂家成交策略灵活。华北市场成交放缓，沙河厂家报价松 动下调，其中华北5.00mm大板现货暂稳于1250元/吨。华东厂家出货偏灵活，江苏地区价格窄幅下行， 华中需求端理性采购为主，整体交投一般。华南多数厂家稳价观望为主，两广地区部分厂家挺价探涨。 随着玻璃价格的持续上行，尽管原料纯碱价格也走高，但燃料价格普遍下跌，浮法玻璃企业生产情况连 续7周改善。本周仅以天然气为燃料的浮法玻璃周均利润仍为负，不过环比收窄16.1元至-152.27元/吨； 以煤制气为燃料的浮法玻璃周均利润137.78元/吨，环比增加10.85元/吨；以石油焦为燃料的浮法玻璃周 均利润骤增82.14元至135.5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for gold prices to reach 1000 yuan per gram in the second half of 2025, analyzing current market dynamics, core driving factors, and risks involved [1]. Group 1: Factors Supporting Gold Price Increase - Continued demand for safe-haven assets due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts, such as the Middle East situation and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which maintain gold's appeal as a traditional safe-haven asset [1]. - Global central banks are accelerating "de-dollarization," with 95% planning to increase gold reserves by 2025, driving up demand for gold [1]. - Expectations of monetary policy easing, particularly a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the second half of 2025, which would weaken the dollar and benefit gold [2]. - Resilience of inflation, where persistent global inflation would highlight gold's anti-inflation properties [3]. - Supply-demand imbalance, with limited gold reserves that can be mined for about 16 years and a slow increase in mined gold, while investment demand surged, with a 29% increase in global gold ETF holdings in 2024 and a 24.54% year-on-year increase in domestic gold bar consumption [4]. Group 2: Risks Pressuring Gold Price Increase - Short-term correction pressure due to technical adjustments, as evidenced by a drop of over 160 USD in international gold prices in June 2025, leading to a nearly 50 yuan per gram decline in domestic gold jewelry prices [5]. - Market sentiment reversal could occur if geopolitical tensions ease or if U.S. economic data exceeds expectations, potentially triggering profit-taking [6]. - Policy expectations may not materialize; if inflation remains sticky, the Federal Reserve might delay interest rate cuts, negatively impacting gold prices [7]. - Weak physical consumption, with domestic gold jewelry consumption expected to decline by 24.69% year-on-year in 2024, as high gold prices suppress demand [8]. Group 3: Feasibility Analysis for 1000 yuan/gram Target - Historical reference indicates a medium probability (50%) for gold prices to exceed 1000 yuan per gram if the Federal Reserve cuts rates, geopolitical tensions escalate, and central bank purchases exceed expectations [9]. - A high probability (40%) scenario suggests gold prices will fluctuate between 780-950 yuan per gram, driven by policy and sentiment [9]. - A low probability (10%) scenario indicates a deep correction if global risks diminish and the dollar strengthens [9]. Group 4: Strategies for Ordinary Investors - Conservative households should allocate 5%-10% of their assets to gold, equating to 5,000 to 10,000 yuan for a 1 million yuan asset base [12]. - Avoid chasing high prices, as current gold prices are at historical highs, presenting greater risks than rewards [13]. - Suggested investment tools include physical gold bars for long-term inflation protection, gold ETFs for swing trading, and paper gold for short-term leveraged operations, each with associated risks [14]. - Recommended operational discipline includes staggered buying if gold prices drop below 750 yuan per gram and setting stop-loss orders at a 10% decline while locking in profits at every 10% increase [15]. Conclusion - A breakthrough to 1000 yuan per gram requires multiple favorable conditions to align, with optimistic scenarios suggesting a temporary touch of this price point but unlikely to sustain [16]. - A more neutral outlook indicates a likely range of 800-950 yuan per gram with volatility exceeding 25% warranting caution [17].