不锈钢产业作为我国制造业的关键基础材料板块，在支撑高端装备、新能源、民生消费等领域发展中发 挥着核心作用。记者调查发现，目前不锈钢行业受原料、市场、技术等多重压力的叠加冲击，面临诸多 梗阻，市场过度竞争进一步挤压企业生存空间。 镍铬受制于人 镍、铬是不锈钢生产中必需的原料，但这两种资源在我国相对贫乏，长期以来都需要大量进口。镍、铬 近年来价格波动大，且持续高位运行，国内的不锈钢企业备受成本飙升、无料可用甚至被迫转移产业至 海外等困扰。 中国宝武集团太原钢铁集团有限公司（下称"太钢集团"）是国内最大的不锈钢生产企业之一，其产品被 用于民生与工业等高端制造业，是我国不锈钢产业的领导者，拥有1200万吨的不锈钢产能。 即便如此，太钢集团与国内其他不锈钢生产企业一样，原材料几乎全部依赖进口。 "我国镍资源对外依存度高达95%，主要依赖印尼和菲律宾进口，而印尼近年频繁削减配额、提高税 率，增加了我们供应链的不确定性。2022年镍价非理性上涨已经对我们造成较大冲击，目前还找不到可 替代的方案，外部风险不断溢出。"太钢集团董事长吴小弟说。 此外，外汇强制留存政策虽不直接影响镍铁出口，但增加了企业现金流压力与运营成本，进一步 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that COMEX gold futures reached a record high of $3731.9 per ounce, driven by multiple factors including expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy, increased demand for safe-haven assets, and imbalances in supply and demand [1][3] - Domestic gold futures in Shanghai closed at 842.08 yuan per gram, with a cumulative increase of 7.37% since September [1][3] - Analysts suggest that the bull market for precious metals may be entering an accelerated phase, with some foreign institutions predicting that gold prices could rise to $5000 per ounce in the future [1][3]

除了黄金，白银价格也持续走高，截至发稿，COMEX白银期货涨至逾43美元／盎司，沪银期货最高触 及10152元／千克。 随着金价再破前高，贵金属大涨行情又至。 机构分析指出，在美联储政策转向预期、避险需求激增及供需结构失衡等多重因素共振下，贵金属牛市 或进入加速阶段。市场看涨情绪也继续保持，此前预期的4000美元／盎司黄金目标价或较此前预测更快 兑现。 9月16日，COMEX黄金期货主力合约盘中最高触及3731.9美元／盎司，再次刷新历史纪录。国内沪金期 货收盘报842.08元／克，9月以来累计涨幅达7.37%。 9月以来，国际金价上涨按下加速键，截至目前已累计上涨超6%，超过8月份5%的月涨幅。 随着行情突破3700美元／盎司的关键点位，机构对贵金属的目标价预期进一步上调。 摩根士丹利在最新研报中，将黄金年底目标价设定为每盎司3800美元。摩根士丹利强调，黄金与美元的 强负相关性仍是关键定价逻辑。当前美元指数若延续贬值趋势，将直接利好以美元计价的贵金属。 9月初，瑞银预测，到2026年6月金价将升至每盎司3700美元，目前看来已经提前突破。此外，瑞银也提 到"在地缘政治或经济状况恶化的风险情况下，不排除金价 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - Gold prices have reached a new historical high, with COMEX gold futures hitting $3731.9 per ounce, marking a significant increase of over 6% since September [2][4] - Morgan Stanley has raised its year-end gold price target to $3800 per ounce, emphasizing the strong negative correlation between gold and the US dollar [5] - UBS predicts gold prices will reach $3700 per ounce by June 2026, with a possibility of hitting $4000 per ounce under adverse geopolitical or economic conditions [5] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have also surged, with COMEX silver futures exceeding $43 per ounce and domestic silver futures reaching 10152 yuan per kilogram [3][7] - The silver market is more volatile due to its smaller size compared to gold, making it susceptible to rapid price changes [7] - Despite optimism for silver, Morgan Chase expresses greater confidence in gold's bull market, citing silver's complex outlook due to its industrial demand [8] Group 3: Macroeconomic Influences - The US job market is showing signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, prompting increased expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [9] - Market forecasts suggest a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with overall expectations for three rate cuts by the end of the year [9] - Historical trends indicate that precious metals often experience significant price increases during the early and mid-stages of a rate-cutting cycle [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for gold prices to reach 1000 yuan per gram in the second half of 2025, analyzing current market dynamics, core driving factors, and risks involved [1]. Group 1: Factors Supporting Gold Price Increase - Continued demand for safe-haven assets due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts, such as the Middle East situation and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which maintain gold's appeal as a traditional safe-haven asset [1]. - Global central banks are accelerating "de-dollarization," with 95% planning to increase gold reserves by 2025, driving up demand for gold [1]. - Expectations of monetary policy easing, particularly a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the second half of 2025, which would weaken the dollar and benefit gold [2]. - Resilience of inflation, where persistent global inflation would highlight gold's anti-inflation properties [3]. - Supply-demand imbalance, with limited gold reserves that can be mined for about 16 years and a slow increase in mined gold, while investment demand surged, with a 29% increase in global gold ETF holdings in 2024 and a 24.54% year-on-year increase in domestic gold bar consumption [4]. Group 2: Risks Pressuring Gold Price Increase - Short-term correction pressure due to technical adjustments, as evidenced by a drop of over 160 USD in international gold prices in June 2025, leading to a nearly 50 yuan per gram decline in domestic gold jewelry prices [5]. - Market sentiment reversal could occur if geopolitical tensions ease or if U.S. economic data exceeds expectations, potentially triggering profit-taking [6]. - Policy expectations may not materialize; if inflation remains sticky, the Federal Reserve might delay interest rate cuts, negatively impacting gold prices [7]. - Weak physical consumption, with domestic gold jewelry consumption expected to decline by 24.69% year-on-year in 2024, as high gold prices suppress demand [8]. Group 3: Feasibility Analysis for 1000 yuan/gram Target - Historical reference indicates a medium probability (50%) for gold prices to exceed 1000 yuan per gram if the Federal Reserve cuts rates, geopolitical tensions escalate, and central bank purchases exceed expectations [9]. - A high probability (40%) scenario suggests gold prices will fluctuate between 780-950 yuan per gram, driven by policy and sentiment [9]. - A low probability (10%) scenario indicates a deep correction if global risks diminish and the dollar strengthens [9]. Group 4: Strategies for Ordinary Investors - Conservative households should allocate 5%-10% of their assets to gold, equating to 5,000 to 10,000 yuan for a 1 million yuan asset base [12]. - Avoid chasing high prices, as current gold prices are at historical highs, presenting greater risks than rewards [13]. - Suggested investment tools include physical gold bars for long-term inflation protection, gold ETFs for swing trading, and paper gold for short-term leveraged operations, each with associated risks [14]. - Recommended operational discipline includes staggered buying if gold prices drop below 750 yuan per gram and setting stop-loss orders at a 10% decline while locking in profits at every 10% increase [15]. Conclusion - A breakthrough to 1000 yuan per gram requires multiple favorable conditions to align, with optimistic scenarios suggesting a temporary touch of this price point but unlikely to sustain [16]. - A more neutral outlook indicates a likely range of 800-950 yuan per gram with volatility exceeding 25% warranting caution [17].