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铂钯数据日报-20260318
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-03-18 07:59
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - On March 17, platinum and palladium prices rebounded. The PT2606 contract closed up 4.27% to 552.7 yuan/gram, and the PD2606 contract closed up 2.3% to 407.75 yuan/gram. Macroscopically, the US Treasury Secretary's remarks to soothe the market and the slowdown of the upward trends of oil prices and the US dollar boosted the precious metal prices. However, the US - Iran conflict shows no sign of resolution, oil prices remain high, and the expectation of interest rate cuts continues to weaken, which may continue to suppress the upward space of precious metal prices. Fundamentally, WPIC expects the global platinum market to have a supply shortage for the fourth consecutive year, and the imbalance between supply and demand may support the platinum price, but the narrowing gap in 2026 and the possible surplus in the global palladium market may limit the upward space of prices. In the short term, platinum and palladium are expected to maintain a range - bound trend. After the Middle East geopolitical situation becomes clear, one can choose to go long on platinum at low prices or continue to hold the [long platinum, short palladium] strategy [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Domestic Prices**: The closing price of platinum futures main contract is 552.7 yuan/gram, up 3.73% from the previous value; the spot price of platinum (99.95%) is 552 yuan/gram, up 6.36%. The basis of platinum (spot - futures) is - 0.7 yuan/gram, a change of - 94.93%. The closing price of palladium futures main contract is 407.75 yuan/gram, up 2.31%; the spot price of palladium (99.95%) is 408 yuan/gram, up 3.42%. The basis of palladium (spot - futures) is 0.25 yuan/gram, a change of - 106.17% [3] - **International Prices**: The London spot platinum price is 2131.1 US dollars/ounce, up 3.61%; the London spot palladium price is 1601.571 US dollars/ounce, up 1.74%. The NYMEX platinum price is 2121.9 US dollars/ounce, up 3.69%; the NYMEX palladium price is 1613.5 US dollars/ounce, up 2.54% [3] - **Exchange Rate and Spread**: The US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate is 6.8961, down 0.14%. The spread between domestic platinum and London platinum is 18.78 yuan/gram, up 11.94%; the spread between domestic platinum and NYMEX platinum is 21.08 yuan/gram, up 8.62%. The spread between domestic palladium and London palladium is 6.50 yuan/gram, up 80.54%; the spread between domestic palladium and NYMEX palladium is 3.51 yuan/gram, down 7.21% [3] - **Price Ratio**: The ratio of Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum to palladium is 1.3555, with a change of 0.0186; the ratio of London spot platinum to palladium is 1.3306, with a change of 0.0241 [3] Inventory and Position Information - **Inventory**: The NYMEX platinum inventory is 200,716 ounces, with no change; the NYMEX palladium inventory is 582,441 ounces, with no change [3] - **Position**: The total NYMEX platinum position is 68,758, down 1.99%; the non - commercial net long position of NYMEX platinum is 14,690, up 6.20%. The total NYMEX palladium position is 15,679, down 2.57%; the non - commercial net long position of NYMEX palladium is - 156, down 196.89% [3]
铂钯数据日报-20260316
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-03-16 07:43
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - On March 13, platinum and palladium prices continued to decline. The PT2606 contract closed down 3.72% to 541.6 yuan/gram, and the PD2606 contract closed down 2.43% to 408.1 yuan/gram. The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran shows no sign of easing, with high oil prices and weakening interest - rate cut expectations, which strengthen the US dollar index and suppress platinum and palladium prices. The global platinum market is expected to face a supply shortage for the fourth consecutive year, providing support for platinum prices, but the suspension in late 2026 and potential palladium market surplus may limit the upside. In the short - term, platinum and palladium are likely to maintain a volatile and downward trend. After the Middle East geopolitical situation becomes clear, investors can consider going long on platinum at low prices or continue to hold the [long platinum, short palladium] strategy [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - **Domestic Prices (yuan/gram)**: Platinum futures主力收盘价 dropped 4.08% to 541.6 from 564.65; spot platinum (99.95%) fell 0.91% to 544 from 549; platinum basis (spot - futures) decreased 115.34% to 2.4 from - 15.65. Palladium futures主力收盘价 declined 2.04% to 408.1 from 416.6; spot palladium (99.95%) remained unchanged at 411; palladium basis (spot - futures) decreased 151.79% to 2.9 from - 5.6 [4] - **International Prices (15:00, dollars/ounce)**: London spot platinum dropped 3.27% to 2100.3 from 2171.358; London spot palladium fell 2.41% to 1609.499 from 1649.252; NYMEX platinum decreased 3.47% to 2094.6 from 2170; NYMEX palladium declined 1.93% to 1625.5 from 1657.5 [4] - **Internal - External 15:00 Spread (yuan/gram)**: The spread of domestic platinum - London platinum decreased 27.17% to 15.05 from 20.66; the spread of domestic platinum - NYMEX platinum decreased 21.55% to 16.47 from 21.00; the spread of domestic palladium - London palladium decreased 34.54% to 3.41 from 4.59; the spread of domestic palladium - NYMEX palladium decreased 56.94% to 0.58 from 1.35 [4][5] - **Price Ratios**: The ratio of Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum to palladium decreased to 1.3271 from 1.3554; the ratio of London spot platinum to palladium decreased to 1.3049 from 1.3166 [5] Inventory and Position Data - **Inventory (troy ounces)**: NYMEX platinum inventory remained unchanged at 204,678; NYMEX palladium inventory remained unchanged at 582,441 [5] - **Position**: NYMEX total platinum position decreased 1.99% to 68,758 from 70,154; NYMEX non - commercial net long position of platinum increased 6.20% to 13,832 from 14,690; NYMEX total palladium position decreased 2.57% to 15,679 from 16,093; NYMEX non - commercial net long position of palladium decreased 196.89% to 161 from - 156 [5]
铂钯数据日报-20260313
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-03-13 03:01
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On March 12, platinum and palladium prices generally oscillated downward. The PT2606 contract closed down 0.94% to 564.65 yuan/gram, and the PD2606 contract closed down 2.08% to 416.6 yuan/gram. Although multiple parties have jointly signaled a cooling of the conflict and introduced possible measures to stabilize oil prices, the issue of the Hormuz Strait remains unresolved, and oil prices are running at a high level. Therefore, short - term oil price fluctuations will continue to affect the price trends of platinum and palladium. Fundamentally, the WPIC expects the global platinum market to experience a supply shortage for the fourth consecutive year. The imbalance in the supply - demand structure may continue to provide support for the downside of platinum prices, but the narrowing gap in 2026 may limit its upward price space. The global palladium market may still have a surplus, with a weaker fundamental situation than platinum, and its overall performance may continue to be weaker than platinum. In summary, in the short term, platinum and palladium are likely to maintain an oscillating trend. After the geopolitical situation in the Middle East becomes clear, one can choose the opportunity to go long on platinum at a low price, or continue to hold the "long platinum, short palladium" strategy [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Prices (yuan/gram) - Platinum futures main contract closing price: 564.65, previous value 565.55, down 0.16% [3] - Platinum (99.95%) spot price: 549, down 1.52% [3] - Platinum basis (spot - futures): - 15.65, previous value - 8.05, up 94.41% [3] - Palladium futures main contract closing price: 416.6, previous value 424.25, down 1.80% [3] - Palladium (99.95%) spot price: 411, previous value 420, down 2.14% [3] - Palladium basis (spot - futures): - 5.6, previous value - 4.25, up 31.76% [3] 3.2 International Prices (15:00, dollars/ounce) - London spot platinum: 2171.358, previous value 2192.154, down 0.95% [3] - London spot palladium: 1649.252, previous value 1666.179, down 1.02% [3] - NYMEX platinum: 2170, previous value 2188.5, down 0.85% [3] - NYMEX palladium: 1657.5, previous value 1683, down 1.52% [3] 3.3 Internal - External 15:00 Spread (yuan/gram,含税) - Dollar/yuan central parity rate: 6.8959, previous value 6.8917, up 0.06% [3] - Guangzhou platinum - London platinum: 20.66, previous value 16.68, up 23.83% [3] - Guangzhou platinum - NYMEX platinum: 21.00, previous value 17.60, up 19.32% [3] - Guangzhou palladium - London palladium: 3.41, previous value 7.08, down 51.77% [3] - Guangzhou palladium - NYMEX palladium: 1.35, previous value 2.86, down 53.00% [3] 3.4 Platinum - Palladium Price Ratio - Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium price ratio: 1.3554, previous value 1.3331, change 0.0223 [3] - London spot platinum/palladium price ratio: 1.3166, previous value 1.3157, change 0.0009 [3] 3.5 Inventory (ounce) - NYMEX platinum inventory: 204678, no change [3] - NYMEX palladium inventory: 582441, no change [3] 3.6 Position - NYMEX total platinum position: 70154, previous value 72351, down 3.04% [3] - NYMEX non - commercial net long platinum position: 13832, previous value 13240, up 4.47% [3] - NYMEX total palladium position: 16093, previous value 16423, down 2.01% [3] - NYMEX non - commercial net long palladium position: 161, previous value 664, down 75.75% [3]
铂钯数据日报-20260311
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-03-11 04:11
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On March 10, platinum and palladium prices generally rose. The PT2606 contract closed up 4.26% to 562.5 yuan/gram, and the PD2606 contract closed down 4.02% to 423.55 yuan/gram. Trump's statement about the US - Iran military action affected the oil price, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and supporting the gold price, but the palladium price with a relatively weak fundamental was less boosted. The global platinum market is expected to have a supply shortage for the fourth consecutive year, which may support the platinum price, but the narrowing gap in 2026 may limit its upward space. The global palladium market may still have an oversupply, with a weaker fundamental than platinum. In the short - term, platinum and palladium are expected to maintain a wide - range shock. After the situation in the Middle East is clear, one can consider buying platinum at low prices or continue to hold the "long platinum, short palladium" strategy [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Prices - Platinum futures主力收盘价 rose 2.40% to 562.55 yuan/gram, and the spot price of platinum (99.95%) rose 3.26% to 554 yuan/gram. The platinum basis (spot - futures) decreased by 33.46% to - 8.55 yuan/gram. Palladium futures主力收盘价 rose 2.63% to 423.55 yuan/gram, and the spot price of palladium (99.95%) rose 3.68% to 422.5 yuan/gram. The palladium basis (spot - futures) decreased by 79.81% to - 1.05 yuan/gram [5] International Prices - London spot platinum decreased by 2.00% to 2112.3 dollars/ounce, London spot gold decreased by 3.39% to 1605.7 dollars/ounce. NYMEX platinum decreased by 0.97% to 2134 dollars/ounce, and NYMEX gold decreased by 2.51% to 1634 dollars/ounce [5] Exchange Rate and Spread - The US dollar/renminbi middle - rate decreased by 0.25% to 6.8982. The spread between Guangzhou platinum and London platinum increased by 325.43% to 33.18 yuan/gram, and the spread between Guangzhou platinum and NYMEX platinum increased by 250.06% to 27.74 yuan/gram [5] Price Ratios - The platinum - gold price ratio of Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased by 0.0029 to 1.3282, and the London spot platinum - gold price ratio increased by 0.0187 to 1.3155 [6] Inventory - NYMEX platinum inventory remained unchanged at 205098 ounces, and NYMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.17% to 582441 ounces [6] Position - NYMEX total position of platinum decreased by 3.04% to 72351, and non - commercial net long position of platinum increased by 4.47% to 13832. NYMEX total position of gold decreased by 2.01% to 16423, and non - commercial net long position of gold decreased by 75.75% to 664 [6]
铂钯数据日报-20260309
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-03-09 04:59
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - On March 6, the prices of platinum and palladium continued their weak and volatile trends. The PT2606 contract closed down 1.2% to 560.5 yuan/gram, and the PD2606 contract closed down 1.79% to 421.5 yuan/gram. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran have pushed up energy prices, increasing concerns about inflation and economic recession, which has put pressure on platinum and palladium prices. However, the potential for further escalation of the conflict may limit the downside of prices. The unexpectedly poor US February non - farm data has boosted expectations of a Fed rate cut, and the risk of a private credit crisis in the US has weakened the US dollar index, providing support for platinum and palladium prices. Fundamentally, the WPIC expects the global platinum market to experience a supply shortage for the fourth consecutive year, which may support platinum prices, but the narrowing of the 26 - year spread and new US tariff policies may limit its upside. Palladium has a weaker fundamental situation and is expected to perform weaker than platinum. In the short term, platinum and palladium are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, and investors can consider buying on dips after the market sentiment stabilizes [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Prices - Platinum futures main contract closing price: 560.5 yuan/gram, down 0.61% from the previous value of 563.95 yuan/gram [4] - Spot platinum (99.95%): 547.5 yuan/gram, down 2.23% from the previous value of 560 yuan/gram [4] - Platinum basis (spot - futures): - 13 yuan/gram, up 229.11% from the previous value of - 3.95 yuan/gram [4] - Palladium futures main contract closing price: 421.5 yuan/gram, down 1.52% from the previous value of 428 yuan/gram [4] - Spot palladium (99.95%): 422.5 yuan/gram, down 1.17% from the previous value of 427.5 yuan/gram [4] - Palladium basis (spot - futures): 1 yuan/gram, down 300.00% from the previous value of - 0.5 yuan/gram [4] 3.2 International Prices - London spot platinum: 2155.4 dollars/ounce, down 0.65% from the previous value of 2169.6 dollars/ounce [4] - London spot gold: 1662.08 dollars/ounce, down 0.49% from the previous value of 1670.34 dollars/ounce [4] - NYMEX platinum: 2154.9 dollars/ounce, down 0.81% from the previous value of 2172.6 dollars/ounce [4] - NYMEX gold: 1676 dollars/ounce, down 0.80% from the previous value of 1689.5 dollars/ounce [4] 3.3 Internal - External 15 - Point Spread - US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate: 6.9025, up 0.03% from the previous value of 6.9007 [4] - Spread between Guangzhou platinum and London platinum: 19.99 yuan/gram, down 0.15% from the previous value of 20.02 yuan/gram [4] - Spread between Guangzhou platinum and NYMEX platinum: 20.12 yuan/gram, up 4.39% from the previous value of 19.27 yuan/gram [4] - Spread between Guangzhou palladium and London palladium: 4.70 yuan/gram, down 49.12% from the previous value of 9.24 yuan/gram [5] - Spread between Guangzhou palladium and NYMEX palladium: 1.21 yuan/gram, down 72.73% from the previous value of 4.43 yuan/gram [5] 3.4 Price Ratios - Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/gold price ratio: 1.3298, up 0.0121 from the previous value of 1.3176 [5] - London spot platinum/gold price ratio: 1.2968, down 0.0021 from the previous value of 1.2989 [5] 3.5 Inventory - NYMEX platinum inventory: 205098 (troy ounces), unchanged from the previous value [5] - NYMEX gold inventory: 582441 (troy ounces), down 0.17% from the previous value of 583452 [5] 3.6 Position - NYMEX total position of platinum: 72351, down 3.04% from the previous value of 70154 [5] - NYMEX non - commercial net long position of platinum: 13832, up 4.47% from the previous value of 13240 [5] - NYMEX total position of gold: 16423, down 2.01% from the previous value of 16093 [5] - NYMEX non - commercial net long position of gold: 664, down 75.75% from the previous value of 161 [5]
贵金属周报(AU、AG):黄金稳健上涨,白银加速冲高-20251229
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-12-29 07:16
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, both gold and silver prices rose, hitting new all - time highs. Silver showed particularly strong performance, with a weekly increase of over 18% and a cumulative increase of over 170% this year. The price increase was supported by macro - level factors, fundamental factors, and changes in the price - spread structure [3]. - In the short term, precious metal prices are expected to remain strong, but there are signs of a "short squeeze" in the silver market, so caution is needed regarding the risk of a phased adjustment due to the rapid price increase, especially during the New Year's Day holiday in China this week. It is recommended that existing long positions be gradually closed for profit, and those not yet in the market should wait and see [5]. - In the long term, the underlying logic of the precious metal bull market remains solid. Factors such as the continuous rise in the US federal government debt, the Fed still in a rate - cut cycle, complex global geopolitical situations, and continued gold purchases by global central banks will support the upward movement of the gold price center [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情及基本面指标跟踪 (Market and Fundamental Indicator Tracking) 3.1.1 Gold and Silver Prices and Gold - Silver Ratio - Gold prices rose steadily, with the London spot gold at $4532.505 per ounce, up 4.41% from the previous week. The Shanghai gold futures main contract was at 1016.30 yuan per gram, up 3.71% [4]. - Silver prices soared, with the London spot silver at $79.3290 per ounce, up 18.31% from the previous week. The Shanghai silver futures main contract was at 18319 yuan per kilogram, up 19.14% [4]. - The domestic and foreign gold - silver ratios dropped to near 53 and 57 respectively, reaching the lowest levels since 2013, indicating that silver is no longer undervalued compared to gold [3]. 3.1.2 Price - Spread between Futures and Spot - For gold, the basis (TD - futures) was - 6.17 yuan per gram, with a weekly change rate of 14.26%. The internal - external price difference was - 5.91 yuan per gram, with a weekly change rate of 70.32% [4]. - For silver, the basis (TD - futures) was 181 yuan per kilogram, with a weekly change rate of - 796.15%. The internal - external price difference was - 439 yuan per kilogram, with a weekly change rate of - 65.89% [4]. 3.1.3 ETF and CFTC Positions - Gold SPDR - ETF holdings increased by 18.59 tons to 1071.13 tons, a weekly increase of 1.77%. COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions increased by 10092 contracts to 233978 contracts, a weekly increase of 4.51% [4]. - Silver SLV - ETF holdings increased by 324 tons to 16391 tons, a weekly increase of 2.02%. COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions decreased by 8357 contracts to 36352 contracts, a weekly decrease of 18.69% [4]. 3.1.4 Inventory Data - SHFE gold inventory increased by 5.98 tons to 97.692 tons, a weekly increase of 6.52%. COMEX gold inventory increased by 5.76 tons to 1125.67 tons, a weekly increase of 0.51% [4]. - SHFE silver inventory decreased by 80.20 tons to 819 tons, a weekly decrease of 8.92%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 124.39 tons to 13988 tons, a weekly decrease of 0.88%. SGE silver inventory increased by 117.71 tons to 832 tons, a weekly increase of 16.48% [4]. 3.2主要宏观指标跟踪 (Tracking of Major Macroeconomic Indicators) 3.2.1 Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - The US dollar index was at 98.0341, down 0.69% from the previous week. The US dollar against the offshore RMB was at 7.0042, down 0.42% [4]. - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was at 3.4749%, down 0.06% from the previous week. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was at 4.1277%, down 0.23% [4]. 3.2.2 Economic Data - The US third - quarter GDP growth was strong, and the consumer confidence index rebounded for the first time in five months [61]. - The US November non - farm payrolls were higher than expected, and the unemployment rate rebounded. Job vacancies increased, and the labor participation rate increased. Wage growth slowed down both month - on - month and year - on - year [66]. - Inflation in the US was relatively controllable. Core commodity inflation rebounded, while core service inflation declined. Consumer inflation expectations rose significantly [68][71]. 3.2.3 Eurozone Economic Data - The Eurozone GDP bottomed out and rebounded. The manufacturing and service PMIs in the Eurozone declined, and inflation data in the Eurozone and the UK were also presented [77][78]. 3.2.4 Central Bank Gold Purchases - The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves for 13 consecutive months. As of the end of November, China's gold reserves reached 74.12 million ounces (about 2305.39 tons), an increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons) from the previous month [85]. - Global central banks still maintained net gold purchases. In the first three quarters of 2025, global central banks and other institutions net - purchased about 633.6 tons of gold, a year - on - year decrease of about 12.1%. However, the gold - purchasing demand is expected to remain strong in the future [85].
白银飙升!贵金属上演“狂飙”大戏 “牛市”行情能否跨年?
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-12-28 23:35
Core Viewpoint - The current gold market is experiencing a significant bull market driven by multiple factors, including central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and supply-demand imbalances, with gold prices reaching historical highs [2][4][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, the global precious metals market saw unprecedented growth, with gold prices increasing by over 70%, silver by more than 170%, and platinum and palladium also reaching historical highs [4][6]. - By the end of 2025, gold prices surged to a record high of $4,549.96 per ounce, while silver prices exceeded $79 [5][6]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw gold prices fluctuate between $2,600 and $3,000 per ounce, with a notable 19.01% increase in March [3][5]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The primary drivers of the current bull market include expectations of loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, economic pressures in the U.S., persistent inflation, and geopolitical uncertainties [6][10]. - Central banks globally have significantly increased their gold purchases, with a net total of 634 tons in the first three quarters of the year, marking a 36% month-on-month increase in October [9][10]. - The shift in market dynamics has seen gold's pricing logic transition from traditional models based on dollar depreciation and interest rates to a new paradigm focused on currency credit reassessment and central bank buying [10][12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, the precious metals market is expected to experience structural differentiation rather than a uniform rise, with gold likely to maintain support from ongoing central bank purchases and potential interest rate cuts [12][13]. - Silver and platinum are anticipated to show stronger price elasticity and upward potential due to persistent supply-demand gaps, despite challenges in industrial demand [11][12]. - The market sentiment is currently high, with precious metal prices at historical peaks, necessitating cautious investment strategies to manage potential volatility [12][14].
贵金属“牛市”能否跨年
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-12-28 16:09
Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market experienced an unprecedented bull market in 2025, with gold prices rising over 70% and silver soaring more than 170%, driven by central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and supply-demand imbalances [1][4][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - In early 2025, gold fluctuated between $2,600 and $3,000 per ounce, while silver ranged from $28 to $32 per ounce [3]. - By mid-March, gold broke the $3,000 per ounce mark, achieving a 19.01% increase in Q1 [3]. - In Q2, platinum surged by 36.58%, while gold and silver had modest gains [3]. - By September, gold reached $3,857 per ounce, marking an 11.92% increase for the month, the highest monthly gain of the year [3]. - In Q4, silver rose by 70.04%, with platinum and palladium increasing over 50%, and gold up by 17.49% [3][4]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The primary driver of the bull market was the expectation of loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, alongside economic pressures and geopolitical uncertainties [4][8]. - Central banks globally purchased a net total of 634 tons of gold in the first three quarters of the year, with a record monthly increase of 53 tons in October [7]. - The shift in market dynamics has moved from traditional drivers like dollar weakness to a more complex interplay of factors including central bank behavior and supply-demand structures [7][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - For 2026, the market is expected to see structural differentiation rather than a uniform rise, with gold supported by ongoing central bank purchases and potential interest rate cuts [9][10]. - Silver and platinum may exhibit stronger price elasticity due to persistent supply shortages, despite some anticipated new production [9][10]. - The overall precious metals market is likely to enter a phase of high volatility and differentiation among various metals, with gold expected to remain stable but with limited upside compared to 2025 [10].
【财经分析】铂钯走势出现分化!铂金低位反弹超15%再创新高 钯金一度触及跌停
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-25 10:12
Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in platinum and palladium futures prices is attributed to regulatory actions, external market declines, and profit-taking by investors, leading to a significant divergence in their price movements [2][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - Platinum futures experienced a substantial increase, rising over 15% from the day's low and closing up more than 4%, while palladium futures saw a significant decline, ending with a 7.65% drop, marking the worst performance in the domestic commodity futures market [2]. - On the NYMEX, platinum and palladium futures ended their previous upward trend with declines of 0.63% and 6.90%, respectively [3]. Group 2: Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the recent price adjustments for platinum and palladium are a normal correction, as previous price increases were driven by macroeconomic factors, supply-demand imbalances, and investor sentiment, which led to prices detaching from fundamental support [5]. - The decrease in market liquidity due to the upcoming Christmas holiday has intensified profit-taking pressures, contributing to the price drop [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Most institutions predict that platinum and palladium will enter a phase of high volatility and wide fluctuations, with differing long-term fundamental expectations for each metal [10]. - Platinum is expected to have upward potential due to its diverse demand structure and the likelihood of supply shortages continuing into 2026, while palladium's demand is more concentrated and may face challenges from the rise of electric vehicles [11].
贵金属数据日报-20251224
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-12-24 02:55
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Influence factors: Affected by factors such as loose liquidity expectations and escalating geopolitical tensions, precious metal prices have strengthened again. Silver benefits from supply - demand imbalance and continuous inflow of ETF holdings, with funds boosting price elasticity. In the short - term, prices are expected to remain high and strong, but risks of sharp fluctuations exist due to accumulated leverage risks and potential weakening of macro - drivers. The better - than - expected Q3 GDP growth in the US weakens rate - cut expectations and may suppress prices. The short - term unilateral strategy suggests waiting and seeing [6]. - Medium - to - long - term view: In the long run, the Fed's easing cycle, geopolitical uncertainties, and increased dollar credit risks will drive up the demand for precious metals. Gold prices are likely to rise, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - On December 23, 2025, compared with December 22, 2025, London gold spot rose 1.4% to $4479.01 per ounce, London silver spot rose 0.3% to $69.34 per ounce. COMEX gold rose 1.4% to $4511.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.4% to $69.41 per ounce. AU2602 rose 1.3% to 1014.24 yuan per gram, and AG2602 rose 1.4% to 16441 yuan per kilogram [5]. 2. Spread/Ratio Tracking - On December 23, 2025, compared with December 22, 2025, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price rose 8.7%, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price fell 20.0%, the spread of gold TD - London rose 2.6%, and the spread of silver TD - London rose - 12.3%. The SHFE gold - silver ratio fell 0.1%, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio rose 0.9%. The spread of AU2604 - 2602 rose 30.2%, and the spread of AG2604 - 2602 rose 50.0% [5]. 3. Position Data - As of December 22, 2025, compared with December 19, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR rose 1.14% to 1064.56 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV rose 3.32% to 16599.25081 tons. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions rose 2.74%, non - commercial short positions rose 1.89%, and net long positions rose 2.91%. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions rose 10.71%, non - commercial short positions rose 0.92%, and net long positions rose 16.07% [5]. 4. Inventory Data - On December 23, 2025, compared with December 22, 2025, SHFE gold inventory rose 2.18% to 93711 kilograms, and SHFE silver inventory fell 0.20% to 899663 kilograms. COMEX gold inventory rose 0.32% to 36120091 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory fell 0.68% to 450643486 troy ounces [5]. 5. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On December 23, 2025, compared with December 22, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate fell - 0.07% to 7.05. The US dollar index fell - 0.46% to 98.26, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell - 1.15% to 3.44%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 0.24% to 4.17%, the VIX fell - 5.57% to 14.08, the S&P 500 rose 0.64% to 6878.49, and NYWEX crude oil rose 2.49% to 57.95 [5]. 6. Market Review - On December 23, 2023, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 2.73% to 1014.24 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 4.3% to 16441 yuan per kilogram [5].