西南期货： 期货市场投机情绪升温，部分期现公司入场备货，强化贸易商提价信心。预计短期内盘面多头情绪较为 强势。 瑞达期货（002961）： 消息面 截至2025年8月4日，山东5.9米中A辐射松现货价格从770元/方小幅上调至780元/方。 8月1日当周针叶原木库存持平前一周，分材种看：辐射松小幅去库，北美材累库。 本周（2025年8月4日-8月10日），中国18港新西兰原木预到船14条，较上周增加8条，周环比增加 133%；到港总量约42.5万方，较上周增加20.4万方，周环比增加92%。 机构观点 目前港口库存处于年内中性水平，外盘价格回落、进口换算超过国内价格构成成本支撑，原木下游整体 需求边际恢复，供需双增格局下基本面矛盾不大。LG2509合约建议下方关注790附近支撑，上方850附 近压力，区间操作。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in glass futures prices, primarily driven by falling coal prices, which reduced production costs for coal-based glass [1] - The glass futures contract FG2509 experienced a trading volume of 2.84 million lots, with an increase in open interest by over 140,000 lots, highlighting heightened speculative trading despite regulatory measures [1] - The macroeconomic policy environment has not provided positive signals, with recent meetings reiterating existing policies without introducing new fiscal measures or real estate support, leading to increased investor risk aversion [1] Group 2 - The overall market for glass is under pressure, with regional performance showing significant differences; for instance, prices in North China are stable while East China sees slight declines [1] - Inventory data reveals a decrease in total inventory to 59.49 million heavy boxes, marking a six-week decline, but this is driven by midstream shifts rather than improvements in end-user consumption [1] - The production side shows a recovery, with the float glass industry operating at a 75% capacity utilization rate, reaching a new high of 79.78% [1] Group 3 - Profit margins for different production processes show a clear divergence, with coal-to-gas and petroleum coke processes achieving weekly profits exceeding 135 CNY/ton, while natural gas processes remain at a loss [2] - The demand outlook remains weak, with policy expectations falling short and urban renewal efforts focusing on high-quality development, resulting in sales rates in major regions between 60-80% [2] Group 4 - Multiple institutions predict that glass prices will maintain high volatility, with structural demand differentiation and unclear seasonal improvement expectations [3] - Some institutions suggest a low-long strategy for glass futures, indicating that the fundamental situation remains largely unchanged despite increased speculative trading [3] - The weak demand from the real estate sector, which constitutes about 75% of glass demand, is expected to dominate short-term market logic, as sales and new construction remain sluggish [3]

交易所出手为市场投机情绪降温，自7月30日当晚夜盘交易时起，玻璃期货2509合约的日内平今仓交易 手续费标准上调至10元/手，不过市场投机交易热情不减，连年已经展开移仓的09合约今日仍增仓超14 万手，成交量接近284万手，处于商品市场首位。此外昨日重要会议与市场此前预期一致未释放增量财 政政策信号，强调用好之前的政策包，且未对地产有更多的提振，但延续之前的高质量发展指引，以及 继续推进反内卷。 玻璃现货市场整体承压，交投区域分化明显，厂家成交策略灵活。华北市场成交放缓，沙河厂家报价松 动下调，其中华北5.00mm大板现货暂稳于1250元/吨。华东厂家出货偏灵活，江苏地区价格窄幅下行， 华中需求端理性采购为主，整体交投一般。华南多数厂家稳价观望为主，两广地区部分厂家挺价探涨。 随着玻璃价格的持续上行，尽管原料纯碱价格也走高，但燃料价格普遍下跌，浮法玻璃企业生产情况连 续7周改善。本周仅以天然气为燃料的浮法玻璃周均利润仍为负，不过环比收窄16.1元至-152.27元/吨； 以煤制气为燃料的浮法玻璃周均利润137.78元/吨，环比增加10.85元/吨；以石油焦为燃料的浮法玻璃周 均利润骤增82.14元至135.5 ...