Core Viewpoint - The polyester industry chain is expected to experience a sector-wide market trend driven by a dual resonance of "cyclical reversal and emerging demand" in 2026, following a prolonged down cycle of approximately 3.5 years in the chemical industry [3]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The chemical industry is entering a low growth phase due to a continuous decline in capital investment and the accelerated exit of outdated overseas production capacity [3]. - The price of PX has been rising due to increased demand from overseas oil adjustments, leading to tighter PX supply [3]. - The polyester filament industry has announced self-regulated production cuts to maintain prices, which began on December 24 and will be expanded as the Spring Festival approaches [3]. Group 2: Price Trends - BOPET prices have been steadily increasing since December 22, supported by sufficient existing orders and rising raw material costs [4]. - A PTA facility in East China with a capacity of 3.6 million tons has reduced its output due to operational issues, with the recovery timeline still pending [5]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The polyester industry chain shows strong potential for reversing the trend of internal competition, with conditions such as nearing the end of capacity expansion, sustained demand growth, and high market share among leading companies [5]. - The chemical sector is expected to undergo structural optimization on the supply side, with domestic policies frequently emphasizing "anti-involution" [6]. - The chemical industry is at the bottom of its down cycle and is gradually moving towards an up cycle, with emerging demands likely to enhance chemical valuations [7].

Group 1 - The core investment logic for the chemical industry in 2026 focuses on the dual resonance of "cyclical reversal + emerging demand stimulation" [3] - The chemical industry has been in a down cycle for approximately 3.5 years, but with a continuous decline in capital investment and the accelerated exit of outdated overseas capacities, the industry is expected to enter a low growth phase [3] - Recent price increases in chemical products are driven by multiple factors, including tightening supply due to reduced production capacity in Europe and domestic maintenance of large production facilities [3] Group 2 - The chemical sector is experiencing a structural optimization on the supply side, with domestic policies emphasizing "anti-involution" and overseas production cuts due to rising raw material costs [4] - The chemical industry is at the bottom of the down cycle and is gradually moving towards an up cycle, with "anti-involution" policies expected to accelerate this transition [4] - The chemical leader ETF (516220) is recommended for capturing investment opportunities in the chemical sector, covering 50 leading chemical stocks and including both traditional cyclical sectors and emerging growth areas [4]

Core Viewpoint - The current investment logic in the chemical sector focuses on a dual resonance of "cyclical reversal + emerging demand stimulation" [1] Group 1: Investment Themes - The chemical sector is centered around three main themes: rising energy storage demand driving industry chain prosperity, ongoing "anti-involution" efforts leading to price recovery, and certain sub-sectors experiencing high prosperity cycles [1] - The lithium battery upstream material supply-demand pattern may be reshaped, with key recommendations including lithium hexafluorophosphate, iron phosphate, and lithium iron phosphate [1] Group 2: Price Trends and Production Adjustments - The chemical industry has recently entered a price increase phase, with MDI sector supply sharply reduced due to maintenance of several core facilities [1] - The organic silicon and caprolactam industries are implementing production cuts to stabilize prices, with caprolactam producers agreeing to a 20% reduction and a price increase of 100 yuan per ton [1] - The organic silicon industry is seeing production cuts of up to 30% and price increases of 10-20% [1] - Leading titanium dioxide companies have raised domestic prices by 700 yuan per ton and international prices by 100 USD per ton [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The chemical sector is characterized by a wide range of sub-sectors with high complexity and relatively small average market capitalizations, leading to rapid rotations among sub-sectors [1] - Investors are advised to consider the chemical leader ETF (516220) to capture investment opportunities in the chemical sector, which tracks the CSI sub-sector chemical industry theme index covering 50 leading chemical stocks [1] - The ETF includes both traditional cyclical sectors and emerging growth tracks, allowing for comprehensive capture of investment logic in the chemical sector [1]