Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the implementation of differentiated pricing for high-energy-consuming industries in Shaanxi Province, which may provide new policy ideas for combating internal competition [4][22] - BOPET prices have shown a strong upward trend, with some companies still expressing intentions to raise prices, although price stability is currently key [5][24] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The chemical industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.24% this week, with 82.39% of stocks in the chemical sector rising [16] - The CCPI (China Chemical Product Price Index) increased by 1.25% this week [19] Key Industry Insights - The Shaanxi Province's proposal for differentiated electricity pricing for high-energy-consuming industries aims to phase out backward production capacity, which could benefit leading companies in the sector [4][22][23] - BOPET prices in East China reached 7,500-7,700 RMB/ton, with an average price of 7,556.25 RMB/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 42.68 RMB/ton (0.57%) [5][24] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include leading chemical companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Hengli Petrochemical [7] - Beneficiary stocks include Xinjiang Tianye and Zhongtai Chemical in the calcium carbide and chlor-alkali sectors [23][36] Product Tracking - The price of urea increased by 1.46% to an average of 1,735 RMB/ton, while phosphate rock prices remained stable [40][41] - The market for viscose staple fiber is stable, with an average price of 12,800 RMB/ton, while demand remains weak [34]

Core Viewpoint - The polyester industry chain is expected to experience a sector-wide market trend driven by a dual resonance of "cyclical reversal and emerging demand" in 2026, following a prolonged down cycle of approximately 3.5 years in the chemical industry [3]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The chemical industry is entering a low growth phase due to a continuous decline in capital investment and the accelerated exit of outdated overseas production capacity [3]. - The price of PX has been rising due to increased demand from overseas oil adjustments, leading to tighter PX supply [3]. - The polyester filament industry has announced self-regulated production cuts to maintain prices, which began on December 24 and will be expanded as the Spring Festival approaches [3]. Group 2: Price Trends - BOPET prices have been steadily increasing since December 22, supported by sufficient existing orders and rising raw material costs [4]. - A PTA facility in East China with a capacity of 3.6 million tons has reduced its output due to operational issues, with the recovery timeline still pending [5]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The polyester industry chain shows strong potential for reversing the trend of internal competition, with conditions such as nearing the end of capacity expansion, sustained demand growth, and high market share among leading companies [5]. - The chemical sector is expected to undergo structural optimization on the supply side, with domestic policies frequently emphasizing "anti-involution" [6]. - The chemical industry is at the bottom of its down cycle and is gradually moving towards an up cycle, with emerging demands likely to enhance chemical valuations [7].

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector is showing relative strength, with the leading chemical ETF (516220) rising by 1.79% on December 30, driven by price increases in PX and downstream products [1]. Group 1: PX and Downstream Products - PX prices are increasing due to tight supply driven by higher demand for upstream toluene/xylene from overseas refining, leading to a sustained rise in PX prices [2]. - The polyester filament industry has announced self-discipline production cuts to maintain prices, which began on December 24 and will continue to expand leading up to the Spring Festival, with weekly supervision checks in place [2]. Group 2: BOPET and PTA - BOPET prices are stabilizing and rising steadily since December 22, supported by sufficient existing orders and rising raw material costs [3]. - A 3.6 million ton PTA facility in East China reduced its operating load on December 25 due to issues, with the recovery timeline still pending, while other facilities are also undergoing maintenance [3]. Group 3: Polyester Industry Chain Potential - According to analysis from Kaiyuan Securities, the polyester industry chain has strong potential for anti-involution, characterized by nearing the end of capacity expansion, continuous demand growth, high market share among leading companies, and a predominance of private enterprises focused on profit-driven development [3]. - The chemical sector is complex with many sub-sectors and fast rotation, making the leading chemical ETF (516220) a viable option for investors looking to capitalize on opportunities in the chemical sector [3].

Group 1 - The polyester industry chain is strengthening overall, with PX prices rising due to high demand for toluene/xylene and gasoline, leading to tighter PX supply [1] - PTA production is declining due to unexpected shutdowns and reduced operating rates, supporting the supply side [1] - The polyester filament industry is implementing self-discipline to reduce production and maintain prices, resulting in significant inventory reduction [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need to address "involution" competition by 2026, aiming to curb low-price and low-quality competition, which is expected to further optimize the supply-demand structure in the chemical industry [1] - The chemical sector ETF (516220) tracks a specialized chemical index (000813) that focuses on high-growth and innovative chemical enterprises, reflecting the overall performance of the industry [1]

Group 1: Polyester Industry Chain Price Trends - The prices of polyester industry chain products have increased as of December 25, with PX at 7318, PTA at 5040, polyester filament at 6450, polyester bottle chips at 5990, and BOPET at 7475 yuan/ton, reflecting increases of +7.88%, +8.39%, +2.79%, +5.27%, and +1.15% respectively compared to the previous week [1] Group 2: Production Capacity Insights - PX production is currently at 89% capacity, with no new capacity expected before Q4 2024. PTA has a 74% operating rate with significant pressure from 2025, and no new capacity is anticipated for 2026. Polyester filament is stable with a 90% operating rate and an annual expansion of 3-4% [1] Group 3: Demand and Consumption Forecast - From January to November this year, the apparent demand for polyester filament has only increased by 3.5%. Following a proactive inventory accumulation cycle in 2024, a destocking cycle is expected to begin in early 2025. By 2026, a return to an inventory accumulation cycle is anticipated, with consumption growth expected to return to the 5-10% range [1] Group 4: Profitability Analysis - Recent profitability trends show PX recovering from zero to 700 yuan/ton, PTA moving from cash flow losses to break-even, and polyester entering a state of slight losses. By 2026, PX profits are expected to expand further, while PTA is likely to maintain break-even, and polyester is projected to recover to a profit range of 100-200 yuan [1] Group 5: Lithium Battery Materials Sector - The lithium battery materials sector has seen a decline due to rumors of a 15% production cut by CATL in Q1 and speculation about 6F prices dropping below 110,000 yuan. However, ongoing negotiations indicate that pricing discussions are progressing as planned, and CATL's suppliers have stated that a 15% reduction is not feasible without losing market share [2] Group 6: Chemical ETF Performance - As of December 30, 2025, the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) rose by 0.37%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Hengyi Petrochemical (000703) up by 5.21% and Hengli Petrochemical (600346) up by 2.95% [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [28]. Core Insights - As of December 25, the Shenwan Basic Chemical Index increased by 6.2% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 4.2 percentage points, ranking second among 31 Shenwan industries. Year-to-date, the index has risen by 32.8%, surpassing the CSI 300 Index by 14.9 percentage points, ranking seventh among the 31 industries [2][9]. - All sub-sectors of the Shenwan Basic Chemical Index saw gains in the past two weeks, with the chemical fiber sector up 10.2%, plastics up 8.9%, and chemical products up 5.8% [11]. - Among the 406 listed companies in the Shenwan Basic Chemical Index, 328 saw their stock prices rise, with Yuan Chuang Co., Shen Jian Co., and Dongcai Technology leading with increases of 108.4%, 77.6%, and 47.4% respectively [13]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shenwan Basic Chemical Index has shown strong performance, with significant gains across various sub-sectors, indicating robust market conditions [9][11]. Chemical Product Price Trends - Recent price movements include an increase in PTA by 8.32% and a slight rise in urea by 0.35%, while lithium hexafluorophosphate and synthetic ammonia saw declines of -3.43% and -2.46% respectively [16][17]. Key Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce released the "Encouraged Foreign Investment Industry Directory (2025 Edition)," which includes new categories such as bio-based chemicals [21][22]. - A significant oil discovery was made in the Bohai Sea, further solidifying China's offshore oil and gas resource reserves [22]. Industry Outlook - The report highlights the importance of the coal chemical industry, especially in light of new standards for clean and efficient coal utilization, which could present investment opportunities [24]. - The refrigerant market is expected to benefit from price increases due to supply constraints, with companies like Sanmei Co. and Juhua Co. showing significant profit growth [24][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [30]. Core Insights - As of December 11, the Shenwan Basic Chemical Index has decreased by 0.7% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.5 percentage points, ranking 18th among 31 Shenwan industries. Year-to-date, the index has increased by 25.1%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 9.4 percentage points, ranking 7th among 31 industries [4][11]. - In the past two weeks, among the sub-sectors of the Shenwan Basic Chemical Index, only two sub-sectors saw gains: Non-metallic Materials increased by 2.1% and Plastics by 1.0%. Five sub-sectors declined, with Chemical Raw Materials down 2.6%, Chemical Fibers down 1.8%, Agricultural Chemicals down 1.1%, Chemical Products down 0.3%, and Rubber down 0.1% [4][12]. - Among the 404 listed companies in the Shenwan Basic Chemical Index, 118 saw their stock prices rise, with Longgao Co., Daoming Optics, and Yongguan New Materials leading with increases of 29.4%, 23.8%, and 17.4%, respectively. Conversely, 282 companies experienced declines, with Changhua Chemical, Huasoft Technology, and Chenguang New Materials falling by 16.0%, 15.0%, and 14.4%, respectively [4][13]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shenwan Basic Chemical Index has shown mixed performance, with a slight decline recently but strong year-to-date growth [4][11]. Chemical Product Price Trends - Recent price changes include increases in Synthetic Ammonia (+2.80%), TDI (+2.49%), and BOPET (+1.66%), while Urea (-0.53%) and PTA (-1.07%) saw declines [19][20]. Key Industry News - The National Energy Administration projects that China's crude oil production will reach 215 million tons in 2025, a historical high, with natural gas production expected to reach 260 billion cubic meters, a 35% increase from the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [4][23]. - A meeting organized by the China Phosphate and Compound Fertilizer Industry Association discussed stabilizing phosphate fertilizer prices and ensuring supply during the spring farming season, suggesting a "combination punch" approach to stabilize market expectations [4][26][24]. Weekly Industry Perspective - The report emphasizes the need for measures to stabilize phosphate fertilizer prices and supply, alongside a positive outlook for refrigerant companies benefiting from rising prices [4][26]. Recommended Stocks - The report suggests focusing on Sanmei Co. (603379) and Juhua Co. (600160) due to their strong positions in the refrigerant market and overall industry growth potential [4][28].

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [1] Core Views - Focus on the BOPET industry's anti-involution trend, with companies reducing their willingness to offer discounts and increasing prices. As of December 4, the mainstream price for BOPET in East China was 7100-7300 RMB/ton, with an average weekly price increase of 58.75 RMB/ton, a rise of 0.82% [5][21] - Global MDI prices are rising due to multiple domestic and international facilities undergoing maintenance or planned repairs. Notable price increases include 300 Euros/ton by Hungary's BorsodChem and 350 Euros/ton by Huntsman in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East [6][27][31] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The chemical industry index underperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.15% this week, with 206 out of 545 stocks in the sector rising [17] - The CCPI (China Chemical Product Price Index) rose to 3882 points, an increase of 0.44% from the previous week [19] BOPET Industry Insights - BOPET companies are less willing to lower prices, leading to a tentative upward price trend. The average gross profit for BOPET films is estimated at -476.73 RMB/ton, indicating significant pressure on profit margins [22][21] - BOPET's operating rate was reported at 65.18%, with inventory levels at historical highs [23][28] MDI Market Developments - Multiple facilities are undergoing maintenance, contributing to a global price increase for MDI products. Companies like Wanhua Chemical have announced price hikes for their MDI products in Southeast Asia and South Asia [31][33] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include Wanhua Chemical, Hengli Petrochemical, and others in the chemical sector. Beneficiary stocks include companies like Dongyue Group and Xinjiang Tianye [8][47]

Core Viewpoint - Enjie Co., Ltd. is planning to acquire 100% equity of Qingdao Zhongke Hualian New Materials Co., Ltd. and raise supporting funds, indicating a strategic move to extend its upstream supply chain in the lithium battery separator industry [2][5]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition target, Zhongke Hualian, was established in November 2011 and is located in Qingdao, Shandong Province, with a registered capital of approximately 206 million yuan [5]. - Zhongke Hualian specializes in the research, production, and sales of various new materials, including wet-process PE separators, BOPET, PI separators, proton exchange membranes, and high-strength fibers, and has the capability to provide complete automated production line solutions [5]. - Enjie Co., as a leading company in lithium battery separators, aims to leverage this acquisition for potential industrial synergies [5]. Group 2: Market Position and Financial Performance - Enjie Co. serves major domestic and international clients in the lithium battery, food and beverage, plastic packaging, and printing industries, including prominent companies like CATL, BYD, and Panasonic [6][9]. - The separator industry is experiencing intensified competition, leading to overall profit pressure; however, Enjie is actively adjusting its market strategy to strengthen its domestic market share while expanding into overseas markets [6][9]. - In Q3 of the current year, Enjie reported a revenue of 3.78 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24.59%, and a net profit of 6.79 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [6][9]. - The gross margin for the quarter was 16.46%, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.37 percentage points [6][9]. Group 3: Stock Information - As of November 28, the stock price of Enjie Co. was 55.35 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 54.4 billion yuan [10].

Core Viewpoint - The export profits of polypropylene (PP) are being compressed due to rising near-sea freight rates and a strengthening RMB, leading to limited growth in export volumes expected for November and December [1][9]. Group 1: Export Volume and Pricing - Domestic suppliers are continuously lowering offshore quotes to stimulate foreign demand, but rising near-sea freight rates and a stronger RMB are limiting the completion of export orders, with expected export volume for November and December remaining between 250,000 to 280,000 tons [1][9]. - Southeast Asia is the main destination for China's PP exports, with Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines accounting for 32.33% of the total export volume. However, the export volume has been declining due to reduced overseas maintenance and insufficient demand during the peak season, with a total of 777,100 tons exported in Q3, a 6.56% decrease quarter-on-quarter [2][9]. Group 2: Freight Rates and Market Conditions - In Q3, the shipping market was weak due to uncertainties surrounding US-China tariffs and a lack of demand, leading to delayed shipping times. However, entering Q4, the near-sea freight rates, particularly in Asia, have increased significantly due to pre-Spring Festival shipping demand, with rates rising to a nearly 10-month high of $540/TEU, a 31.39% increase from mid-October [4][9]. - The increase in near-sea freight rates is putting pressure on export profits, becoming a key variable affecting export orders [4][9]. Group 3: Currency Impact - The RMB has strengthened against the USD, with the exchange rate surpassing 7.10, reaching 7.0796 on November 26, the highest level since November 2024. This appreciation is partly driven by market expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6][7]. - A stronger RMB negatively impacts export companies as it reduces the profit margins when converting USD payments into RMB, thereby limiting the negotiation of some export orders [6][7].