比亚迪11月新能源汽车销量48.02万辆领跑，鸿蒙智行以超8万辆领跑创新高，极氪、零跑分别交付超6万和7万辆。小米再破4万辆并推出现车选 购。蔚来多品牌战略交付3.6万辆，同比增76.3%。理想交付3.3万辆，新款i6和i8订单破10万。智己汽车交付实现连续三月破万。 临近年终，中国新能源车企开始冲刺，不过格局有所分化：超过半数企业实现月交付量破万，且头部企业销量领先优势进一步拉大。 12月1日，最新公布的初步数据显示，新能源汽车市场在年末冲刺阶段呈现明显分化格局。比亚迪11月新能源汽车销量48.02万辆领跑，鸿蒙智行 交付量超8万辆，极氪科技和零跑汽车分别以超6万辆和7万辆位居前列。"蔚小理"较上一月的交付量均出现不同程度的下滑；而在纯电转型关键期 遭遇交付波动的理想汽车，则再次垫底排行榜。 12月2日盘初，港股汽车股表现分化，"蔚小理"集体下跌， 跌超5%， 跌超3%； 再涨超7%， 涨近3%。 | 圖表 | 成分股 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序號 | 代碼 | 名稱 | 最新價 | 漲跌幅 ◆ | 成交額 | 總市 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The weak expectation logic may return, and lithium prices will fluctuate downward. Fundamentally, upstream production will remain high due to the lack of supply elasticity. As the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" end, the restocking demand before the terminal peak season may weaken, and the fundamental expectation is marginally bearish. From a market perspective, as Jiangxi lithium mining companies submit review materials, the risk of mica mine shutdown decreases, and the increase in positions and decline in the secondary main contract reflect the market's bet on the cooling expectation of resource disturbances. It is expected that lithium prices will operate weakly with fluctuations [3][33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Market Performance**: In September, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated within a narrow range. At the beginning of the month, driven by the rumor of the resumption of production at Ningde Times' Zhenxiawo lithium mine, the lithium price broke through the support level with a gap down. As the rumor was falsified, the price corrected upward. The market was uncertain about the continuous production of Jiangxi lithium mines after September 30th, resulting in a significant cooling of the long - short game and stable price trends. Fundamentally, the lithium carbonate market remained weak. The supply elasticity was absent, and weekly production reached new highs. Although spot inventory decreased significantly, the destocking was mainly due to cross - market transfers rather than industrial demand [8]. - **Price Spread**: In September, the electric - industrial price spread rebounded, rising from - 0.08 million yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 0.11 million yuan/ton at the end. The lithium carbonate - lithium hydroxide price spread was stable, dropping from - 0.38 million yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to - 0.65 million yuan/ton at the end, with no obvious arbitrage opportunities during the reporting period [10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Resource Disturbance and Cost**: In September, lithium ore prices dropped significantly. The price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate (5.5% - 6%) fell from $881/ton at the beginning of the month to $812/ton at the end, a monthly decline of about 7.83%. The price of technical - grade lithium mica (2.5%) dropped from 1935 yuan/ton to 1760 yuan/ton, a monthly decline of about 9.04%. As Jiangxi lithium mining companies submitted approval materials and some obtained approvals, the market's expectation of mine shutdown decreased, and mica ore prices further declined after the holiday. It is expected that resource disturbance risks will decrease, and the cost center will move down [13]. - **Supply and Production**: In September, the production capacity of lithium carbonate increased. Many domestic and overseas projects were put into production. The total lithium salt production in September was about 95,442 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 3.31%. The operating rate was 50.28%, a slight increase of about 1.97 percentage points from August. There were structural differences in production, with a slight decrease in mica - extracted lithium production and an increase in spodumene and salt - lake - extracted lithium production [15][16]. - **Import and Export**: Affected by the rapid increase in domestic lithium salt supply, the filling effect of imported lithium salt weakened. Chile's lithium salt exports decreased significantly in August, which may lead to a significant decline in imported resources around October. With the gradual production increase of Argentine salt - lake projects, imported resources may show diversification characteristics. In Chile, Codelco may dominate the Atacama salt - lake mining business, and the salt - lake may face more policy controls [19]. - **Downstream Products**: - **Phosphoric Acid Ferrous Lithium**: In September, the production of phosphoric acid ferrous lithium was about 351,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.77%. The operating rate was 71.18%, a significant increase of about 4.58 percentage points from August. Inventory increased. The prices of power - type and energy - storage - type phosphoric acid ferrous lithium decreased. The supply increase was more significant, and the cost center decline dragged down the price [21]. - **Ternary Materials**: In September, the production of ternary materials was about 79,030 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.95%. The operating rate was about 47.59%, an increase of about 0.45 percentage points from August. Inventory decreased slightly. The prices of 6 - series and 8 - series ternary materials increased slightly. The fundamentals were stable, and the cost pressure was stronger than that of ferrous lithium [22]. - **Batteries**: In August, the production of power batteries was about 139.5 GWh, a month - on - month increase of about 4.41%. Sales were about 98.9 GWh, a decrease of 3 GWh from the previous period. The production - sales ratio was about 70.89%, indicating a large imbalance between production and sales. The loading rate of ferrous lithium batteries was better than that of ternary batteries, and the supply - demand structure of ferrous lithium batteries improved marginally [24][25]. - **Power Terminal**: In August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased year - on - year, but the growth rate of monthly production and sales declined rapidly, dragging down the cumulative growth rate. The new energy commercial vehicle market remained hot, with high production and sales growth rates and a production - sales ratio close to 100%. The new energy vehicle market showed significant structural differentiation between passenger cars and commercial vehicles. Overseas, the sales of new energy vehicles in Europe and the United States maintained a growth trend [27][28][29]. - **Inventory Transfer**: As of October 3rd, the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased slightly. Although the market inventory decreased significantly, the factory inventory increased. The decrease in spot inventory was similar to the increase in exchange warehouse receipts, indicating that most of the spot resources flowed to the exchange rather than being consumed by production and sales [30][32]. 3.3 Market Outlook - **Supply**: Due to the lack of supply elasticity, lithium salt production may remain high (neutral to slightly bearish). - **Consumption**: As the "Golden September and Silver October" period ends, the demand intensity shifts from raw material stocking in the middle reaches to the terminal consumption peak season. However, the peak season of the power terminal may be limited in intensity under the control of subsidy funds, which may drag down the resilience of raw material stocking in the middle reaches (neutral to slightly bearish). - **Resources**: Low - cost salt - lake production capacities are being put into operation one after another. Lithium mining companies involved have submitted license renewal materials, and there are no signs of mine shutdown in the market, so the resource disturbance risk decreases (neutral to slightly bearish). Overall, lithium prices are expected to fluctuate downward [33].