Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a stage where supply expectations are somewhat repaired, demand is temporarily weak, consumption expectations are positive, and price increases are due to the release of market sentiment, so caution is needed [2]. - The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [2]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 70,840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,280 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was - 186,221 hands, a decrease of 20,241 hands; the position volume of the main contract was 300,620 hands, a decrease of 77,852 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts was - 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 380 yuan/ton; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 12,276 hands/ton, an increase of 280 hands [2]. 现货市场 - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 750 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 700 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was 2,310 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,530 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 810 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite was 6,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) was 2,367 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate was 44,100 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 17,697.62 tons, a decrease of 3,448.16 tons; the monthly export volume was 429.65 tons, an increase of 142.92 tons; the monthly enterprise operating rate was 52%, an increase of 5 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries was 129,200 MWh, an increase of 5,700 MWh; the price of lithium manganate was 30,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 5.03 million yuan/ton, an increase of 0.08 million yuan; the price of lithium cobaltate was 225,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China was 145,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,000 yuan; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China was 121,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,000 yuan [2]. Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China was 126,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,000 yuan; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 51%, a decrease of 4 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate was 3.27 million yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes was 52%, an increase of 3 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1,268,000, a decrease of 2,000; the monthly sales volume was 1,329,000, an increase of 22,000; the cumulative sales penetration rate was 44.32%, an increase of 0.33 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume was 6,937,000, an increase of 1,993,000; the monthly export volume was 205,000, a decrease of 70,000; the cumulative export volume was 1.06 million, an increase of 455,000 [2]. Option Situation - The total call position was 244,387, an increase of 35,337; the total put position was 135,778, an increase of 2,858; the total position put - call ratio was 55.56%, a decrease of 8.0243 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility was 0.54%, a decrease of 0.1804 percentage points [2]. Industry News - The National Conference of Heads of Industry and Information Technology Departments was held in Beijing on July 28, aiming to deepen reforms, promote the implementation of the "15th Five - Year Plan", consolidate the achievements of the comprehensive rectification of the "involution - type" competition in the new energy vehicle industry, and strengthen the governance of key industries such as photovoltaics [2]. - Shanghai will expand the open area of autonomous driving, aiming to achieve full - area opening of autonomous driving test roads in Pudong New Area by the end of this year and promote the opening of Fengxian and Minhang areas [2]. - A new automobile central enterprise, China Chang'an Automobile Group Co., Ltd., is about to be established, and its social media accounts have been launched [2]. Viewpoint Summary - The main lithium carbonate contract dropped significantly, with a decrease of 5.9% at the close. The position volume decreased, the spot was at a premium, and the basis strengthened [2]. - On the raw material side, recent disturbances in the lithium carbonate mining end and domestic policies on industrial structure adjustment led to an increase in the futures price and stronger price - holding intentions of miners [2]. - On the supply side, affected by policies and mining events, the supply of lithium carbonate is expected to be gradually controlled. In terms of imports and exports, Chile's exports increased slightly in June, and the average price also rose significantly, which is expected to increase the domestic import volume and price [2]. - On the demand side, due to the rapid rise in lithium prices and the off - season, downstream acceptance of high - priced lithium carbonate is low, and only rigid - demand purchases are maintained, resulting in a dull trading situation in the spot market [2]. - In terms of inventory, the industrial inventory is still at a high level, and effective demand is needed to drive inventory reduction [2].

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250729: "Anti-Involution" Sentiment Declines, Volatility Increases [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On July 28, the main nickel contract fluctuated downward. The pure nickel fundamentals are loose, but the macro - atmosphere dominates with large sentiment changes. The nickel price is expected to oscillate at a high level. Short - term high - selling and short - positions are recommended, waiting for the "anti - involution" sentiment to subside (Viewpoint Score: -1) [2] - On July 28, the main stainless - steel contract fluctuated downward. The current macro - sentiment has a large influence. Although the fundamentals are loose, it takes time for the price to return to the fundamentals. The price is expected to follow macro - fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see (Viewpoint Score: 0) [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market Price and Volume - Shanghai nickel futures: On July 28, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts decreased compared to previous days. The trading volume of the active contract was 297,904 hands (+132,194), and the open interest was 96,124 hands (-2,883) [2] - LME nickel: On July 28, the closing prices of the 3 - month nickel in the electronic and physical trading sessions decreased. The trading volume was 7,318 hands (-3,337) [2] Inventory - Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory increased, LME nickel inventory increased, social inventory decreased, and bonded - area inventory remained flat [2] Supply and Demand - Supply: Nickel ore prices were flat, nickel ore arrivals increased last week, and port inventory decreased. Nickel - iron mills' losses narrowed, domestic and Indonesian nickel - iron production decreased in June, and nickel - iron inventory decreased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production decreased in July, and export profits expanded [2] - Demand: Ternary material production increased, stainless - steel mills' production plans decreased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable [2] Stainless - Steel Market Price and Volume - On July 28, the main stainless - steel contract fluctuated downward. The trading volume was 349,991 hands (+149,518), and the open interest was 112,413 hands (-12,340). The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium expanded [2] Inventory - Shanghai Futures Exchange stainless - steel inventory decreased, and the 300 - series social inventory last week was 638,500 tons (-17,800) [2] Supply and Demand - Supply: Stainless - steel production decreased in June [2] - Demand: Terminal demand was weak [2] Cost - High - nickel pig iron prices increased, and high - carbon ferrochrome prices remained stable [2]