1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diversified trend, with different sectors and varieties having different investment outlooks and risks. For example, in the stock index futures, it is necessary to focus on the sustainability of liquidity repair; in the black sector, steel and ore are expected to be short - term volatile and medium - long - term bearish; in the energy sector, the rise of crude oil driven by geopolitics is limited [15][17][40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - China's Hainan Free Trade Port officially launched the full - island customs closure operation on December 18, 2025, expanding the "zero - tariff" commodity scope to more than 6,600 tariff items. China has re - implemented the export license management for steel products after 16 years and approved some rare earth export general license applications. A large gold mine was discovered in Laizhou, Shandong, with a cumulative proven gold resource reserve of over 3,900 tons, accounting for about 26% of the national total [9]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will take measures to expand effective investment. The State Administration for Market Regulation will promote the construction of a unified national market. Market institutions expect a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve - requirement ratio cut and a 0.1 - percentage - point interest - rate cut in 2026. The CSRC will promote the compilation and implementation of the capital market's "14th Five - Year Plan" [10]. - In 2026, the photovoltaic industry will strengthen capacity control. The next - nominee for the Fed chair may support "substantial" interest - rate cuts. Trump will sign a nearly trillion - dollar annual defense policy bill. The US November core CPI and overall CPI growth rates are lower than expected, but the reliability of the inflation report is questioned. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased, and the number of continued jobless claims increased [11]. - The European Central Bank maintained the benchmark interest rate unchanged, and the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Japan increased its holdings of US Treasury bonds in October, while China decreased its holdings. The main contracts of palladium and platinum futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange had significant movements, and trading restrictions were imposed [12]. 3.2 Macro Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to focus on the sustainability of liquidity repair. If it is realized, the index may strengthen. A - share large and small indexes are differentiated. US economic data shows mixed performance, and domestic November macro - economic data shows a decline in most indicators. The stock market and the bond market strengthened simultaneously on Wednesday, and the market was differentiated on Thursday [15]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The strategy is that medium - and short - term bonds have certain odds and may fluctuate strongly. The capital market is balanced and loose, and the central bank restarts the 14 - day reverse repurchase. The macro - policy expression in the central economic work conference is marginally relaxed, but it is not enough to drive interest - rate cut transactions in the short term. Attention should be paid to the central bank's MLF renewal and bond - buying scale at the end of the month [16]. 3.3 Black Sector 3.3.1 Steel and Ore - From a policy perspective, the implementation of important meeting spirits is in line with market expectations, with no new policies and a relatively gentle policy. From a fundamental perspective, the demand for building materials is weak, and the demand for coils is acceptable. The supply side may see a decline in iron - water production, and the inventory is still at a high level compared with last year. The cost side is expected to continue to decrease. In the short term, steel and ore will fluctuate, and in the medium - long term, a bearish view is maintained [17]. 3.3.2 Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may fluctuate and rise in the short term. In the medium term, the domestic mine start - up rate is restricted by policies, and in the short term, coal production is restricted by safety supervision and environmental protection. The potential negative feedback risk of weakening steel demand still restricts the prices of coal and coke. The 05 contract may have a phased rebound, but the space is limited [20]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, it is recommended to close out the previous long positions and pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the short term. For manganese silicon, a bearish view is maintained in the medium term. The performance of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon is weak, and the supply of ferrosilicon has decreased in the near two weeks, while the supply of manganese silicon has not significantly shrunk [21]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, it is recommended to wait and see. For glass, it is advisable to try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes. The supply of soda ash has recovered, but the upstream start - up willingness is weak. The market has expectations for the cold - repair of glass production lines, and the follow - up should focus on the implementation of production cuts and other factors [22]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the fundamentals show signs of weakening, but in the medium - long term, the demand is still positive. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of demand and the opportunity to buy on dips [24]. 3.4.2 Industrial Silicon - In the short term, it is difficult to see production cuts. At the end of the month, attention should be paid to the supply disturbance caused by environmental protection in Xinjiang and the fluctuation of coking coal prices, which may lead to a partial repair of valuation. In the future, it will gradually shift to the game of polysilicon production - cut expectations [25]. 3.4.3 Polysilicon - The adjustment of the minimum order quantity for polysilicon futures contracts may weaken the trading enthusiasm and increase price fluctuations. The policy - expected pricing is stronger than the supply - demand contradiction pricing, and the spot price is expected to be strong [26]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - In the short term, it will fluctuate and sort out. The supply is temporarily loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. The cost and policy expectations support the cotton price, but the USDA report is negative [28]. 3.5.2 Sugar - The domestic sugar supply - demand situation is still bearish. The new - sugar listing pressure weighs on the sugar price. The Zhengzhou sugar futures price is at a low level. It is advisable to wait and see, and short - sellers at low levels should be cautious [30]. 3.5.3 Eggs - Before the Spring Festival, the inventory of laying hens in production is expected to remain high, and the short - term contract is bearish. The long - term contract is supported by the expectation of a decline in inventory, and it is advisable to wait and see [32]. 3.5.4 Apples - The futures price may fluctuate. The出库 of apples is slightly reduced year - on - year, and the sales in the market are slow. The high price restricts consumption, and the substitution of citrus fruits suppresses demand [34]. 3.5.5 Corn - Attention should be paid to the change of spot prices in the production area. It is advisable to short - sell the far - month contracts on rallies or look for reverse - spread opportunities in the far - month contracts. The supply - demand mismatch is gradually alleviated, and the far - month contracts face greater supply pressure [35]. 3.5.6 Red Dates - The current view is that the price will fluctuate. The prices in the production and sales areas are stable, but the increase in the arrival volume in Cangzhou may suppress the spot price. The follow - up should focus on the performance in the consumption peak season [37]. 3.5.7 Pigs - The pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged. The spot price lacks the driving force for a rebound and is likely to continue to be weak. It is advisable to short - sell the near - month contracts on rallies and control the position [38]. 3.6 Energy and Chemical Industry 3.6.1 Crude Oil - The geopolitical situation in Venezuela drives the oil price to rebound, but the impact is limited. In the medium term, the oil price may continue to decline. Goldman Sachs predicts that the average prices of Brent and WTI crude oil in 2026 will be $56/barrel and $52/barrel respectively [40]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - The supply and demand structure of fuel oil is loose, and its price follows the oil price. The geopolitical situation affects the oil price, and the fuel oil inventory is accumulating [41]. 3.6.3 Plastics - Polyolefins have a large supply pressure and weak downstream demand. The price may have a small - scale rebound due to production losses, but there is no strong driving force for a large - scale rebound [42]. 3.6.4 Methanol - The supply - demand situation of methanol has slightly improved, and the inventory is starting to decline, but there is still a possibility of inventory accumulation at the end of the month. It is not recommended to continue to be bearish. The near - month contract may have a small - scale rebound, and the far - month contract can be considered for long - position allocation after smooth inventory reduction [43]. 3.6.5 Caustic Soda - The rise of caustic soda futures price is mainly due to the strong performance of coking coal futures. The decline in the price of the liquid chlorine industry chain supports the far - month contract. It is advisable to stop profiting from the long - position in the near - month contract and hold the long - position in the main contract dynamically [44]. 3.6.6 Asphalt - The price fluctuation of asphalt is expected to increase, and the focus in the future is the price bottom after the winter - storage game [45]. 3.6.7 Polyester Industry Chain - The short - term trend of the polyester industry chain is mainly driven by cost and market sentiment. It is advisable to try to go long on dips and pay attention to market sentiment changes. Consider the positive spread between PX and PTA 5 - 9 contracts on dips [47]. 3.6.8 Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The decrease in supply supports the price rebound, but the high - level support is insufficient, and the futures price is prone to fall [48]. 3.6.9 Pulp - The old warehouse receipts are compulsorily cancelled, and the fundamentals are gradually improving. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term. If the spot price is stable, a virtual short - call option on the 03 contract can be sold to achieve high - level risk - free hedging [49]. 3.6.10 Logs - The fundamentals are weakly bearish, and the spot price is under pressure. The follow - up is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance, and the futures price is still under pressure [49]. 3.6.11 Urea - The high price in the futures market is not sustainable. A bearish view should be maintained under the high - supply pressure [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a stage where supply expectations are somewhat repaired, demand is temporarily weak, consumption expectations are positive, and price increases are due to the release of market sentiment, so caution is needed [2]. - The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [2]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 70,840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,280 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was - 186,221 hands, a decrease of 20,241 hands; the position volume of the main contract was 300,620 hands, a decrease of 77,852 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts was - 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 380 yuan/ton; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 12,276 hands/ton, an increase of 280 hands [2]. 现货市场 - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 750 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 700 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was 2,310 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,530 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 810 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite was 6,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) was 2,367 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate was 44,100 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 17,697.62 tons, a decrease of 3,448.16 tons; the monthly export volume was 429.65 tons, an increase of 142.92 tons; the monthly enterprise operating rate was 52%, an increase of 5 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries was 129,200 MWh, an increase of 5,700 MWh; the price of lithium manganate was 30,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 5.03 million yuan/ton, an increase of 0.08 million yuan; the price of lithium cobaltate was 225,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China was 145,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,000 yuan; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China was 121,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,000 yuan [2]. Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China was 126,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,000 yuan; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 51%, a decrease of 4 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate was 3.27 million yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes was 52%, an increase of 3 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1,268,000, a decrease of 2,000; the monthly sales volume was 1,329,000, an increase of 22,000; the cumulative sales penetration rate was 44.32%, an increase of 0.33 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume was 6,937,000, an increase of 1,993,000; the monthly export volume was 205,000, a decrease of 70,000; the cumulative export volume was 1.06 million, an increase of 455,000 [2]. Option Situation - The total call position was 244,387, an increase of 35,337; the total put position was 135,778, an increase of 2,858; the total position put - call ratio was 55.56%, a decrease of 8.0243 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility was 0.54%, a decrease of 0.1804 percentage points [2]. Industry News - The National Conference of Heads of Industry and Information Technology Departments was held in Beijing on July 28, aiming to deepen reforms, promote the implementation of the "15th Five - Year Plan", consolidate the achievements of the comprehensive rectification of the "involution - type" competition in the new energy vehicle industry, and strengthen the governance of key industries such as photovoltaics [2]. - Shanghai will expand the open area of autonomous driving, aiming to achieve full - area opening of autonomous driving test roads in Pudong New Area by the end of this year and promote the opening of Fengxian and Minhang areas [2]. - A new automobile central enterprise, China Chang'an Automobile Group Co., Ltd., is about to be established, and its social media accounts have been launched [2]. Viewpoint Summary - The main lithium carbonate contract dropped significantly, with a decrease of 5.9% at the close. The position volume decreased, the spot was at a premium, and the basis strengthened [2]. - On the raw material side, recent disturbances in the lithium carbonate mining end and domestic policies on industrial structure adjustment led to an increase in the futures price and stronger price - holding intentions of miners [2]. - On the supply side, affected by policies and mining events, the supply of lithium carbonate is expected to be gradually controlled. In terms of imports and exports, Chile's exports increased slightly in June, and the average price also rose significantly, which is expected to increase the domestic import volume and price [2]. - On the demand side, due to the rapid rise in lithium prices and the off - season, downstream acceptance of high - priced lithium carbonate is low, and only rigid - demand purchases are maintained, resulting in a dull trading situation in the spot market [2]. - In terms of inventory, the industrial inventory is still at a high level, and effective demand is needed to drive inventory reduction [2].

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250729: "Anti-Involution" Sentiment Declines, Volatility Increases [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On July 28, the main nickel contract fluctuated downward. The pure nickel fundamentals are loose, but the macro - atmosphere dominates with large sentiment changes. The nickel price is expected to oscillate at a high level. Short - term high - selling and short - positions are recommended, waiting for the "anti - involution" sentiment to subside (Viewpoint Score: -1) [2] - On July 28, the main stainless - steel contract fluctuated downward. The current macro - sentiment has a large influence. Although the fundamentals are loose, it takes time for the price to return to the fundamentals. The price is expected to follow macro - fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see (Viewpoint Score: 0) [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market Price and Volume - Shanghai nickel futures: On July 28, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts decreased compared to previous days. The trading volume of the active contract was 297,904 hands (+132,194), and the open interest was 96,124 hands (-2,883) [2] - LME nickel: On July 28, the closing prices of the 3 - month nickel in the electronic and physical trading sessions decreased. The trading volume was 7,318 hands (-3,337) [2] Inventory - Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory increased, LME nickel inventory increased, social inventory decreased, and bonded - area inventory remained flat [2] Supply and Demand - Supply: Nickel ore prices were flat, nickel ore arrivals increased last week, and port inventory decreased. Nickel - iron mills' losses narrowed, domestic and Indonesian nickel - iron production decreased in June, and nickel - iron inventory decreased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production decreased in July, and export profits expanded [2] - Demand: Ternary material production increased, stainless - steel mills' production plans decreased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable [2] Stainless - Steel Market Price and Volume - On July 28, the main stainless - steel contract fluctuated downward. The trading volume was 349,991 hands (+149,518), and the open interest was 112,413 hands (-12,340). The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium expanded [2] Inventory - Shanghai Futures Exchange stainless - steel inventory decreased, and the 300 - series social inventory last week was 638,500 tons (-17,800) [2] Supply and Demand - Supply: Stainless - steel production decreased in June [2] - Demand: Terminal demand was weak [2] Cost - High - nickel pig iron prices increased, and high - carbon ferrochrome prices remained stable [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 28, all the current - month contracts of the four major stock index futures rose. IF rose 0.18%, IH rose 0.39%, IC rose 0.18%, and IM rose 0.11% [1]. - On the trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded, indicating that investors' trading enthusiasm increased. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 547 lots, IH decreased by 870 lots, IC increased by 11,258 lots, and IM increased by 26,844 lots. In terms of positions, the total position of IF increased by 3,663 lots, IH decreased by 1,993 lots, IC increased by 3,134 lots, and IM increased by 11,728 lots [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1期指期现数据跟踪 - **IF Futures**: The closing prices of IF2508, IF2509, IF2512, and IF2603 were 4131.2, 4122, 4090.8, and 4057 respectively, with increases of 0.18%, 0.16%, 0.11%, and 0.07%. The trading volumes were 23,316, 54,638, 10,792, and 4,247 respectively, and the position changes were +1,739, +1,331, +620, and +1,213 respectively [1]. - **IH Futures**: The closing prices of IH2508, IH2509, IH2512, and IH2603 were 2806, 2805.8, 2807.4, and 2809.6 respectively, with increases of 0.39%, 0.36%, 0.34%, and 0.34%. The trading volumes were 12,722, 28,883, 3,824, and 928 respectively, and the position changes were -1,590, +403, -111, and +111 respectively [1]. - **IC Futures**: The closing prices of IC2508, IC2509, IC2512, and IC2603 were 6274, 6222, 6091.4, and 5973 respectively, with increases of 0.18%, 0.09%, 0.01%, and 0.00%. The trading volumes were 23,810, 46,353, 13,923, and 4,105 respectively, and the position changes were +504, +1,256, +655, and +719 respectively [1]. - **IM Futures**: The closing prices of IM2508, IM2509, IM2512, and IM2603 were 6674.6, 6602, 6419.4, and 6256.2 respectively, with increases of 0.11%, -0.04%, -0.03%, and -0.06%. The trading volumes were 39,355, 116,079, 24,230, and 6,593 respectively, and the position changes were +2,878, +73,550, +311, and +1,017 respectively [1]. 3.2期指前20大会员持仓增减 - **IF Contracts**: For IF2508, long - order increase was 1629, short - order increase was 1637; for IF2509, long - order increase was 2353, short - order increase was 586; for IF2512, long - order decrease was 387, short - order decrease was 632 [5]. - **IH Contracts**: For IH2508, long - order decrease was 1014, short - order decrease was 1318; for IH2509, long - order increase was 232, short - order decrease was 20; for IH2512, long - order decrease was 79, short - order increase was 335 [5]. - **IC Contracts**: For IC2508, long - order increase was 459, short - order increase was 8; for IC2509, long - order increase was 2181, short - order increase was 1272; for IC2512, long - order increase was 147, short - order increase was 413 [5]. - **IM Contracts**: For IM2508, long - order increase was 3017, short - order increase was 2265; for IM2509, long - order increase was 6181, short - order increase was 7275; for IM2512, long - order increase was 683, short - order increase was 623 [5]. 3.3 趋势强度 - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and the trend intensity of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6]. 3.4 重要驱动 - On July 28, the China - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm, Sweden [7]. - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the child - rearing subsidy system and fertility support measures on July 30 [7]. - The National Conference of Heads of Industry and Information Technology Departments emphasized measures to consolidate the industrial economy, including implementing a new round of stable - growth actions in ten key industries, promoting the development and application of technologies such as AI terminals, and continuing to maintain the stable development of the tobacco industry [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report focuses on the current situation of the lithium carbonate market, presenting detailed data on the fundamentals of lithium carbonate, including contract prices, trading volumes, open interest, and prices of various lithium-related products. It also mentions relevant macro and industry news and the trend strength of lithium carbonate [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Contract Data**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price is 73,120 yuan, with a decrease of 7,400 yuan compared to T - 1; the trading volume is 1,005,395 lots, a decrease of 198,029 lots; the open interest is 378,472 lots, a decrease of 112,616 lots. For the 2511 contract, the closing price is 71,420 yuan, a decrease of 7,740 yuan; the trading volume is 327,845 lots, an increase of 58,097 lots; the open interest is 168,736 lots, an increase of 728 lots [1]. - **Other Data**: The warehouse receipt volume is 12,276 lots, an increase of 280 lots. The basis of spot - 2509 is 780 yuan, and spot - 2511 is 2,480 yuan. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 805 US dollars, a decrease of 5 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,805 yuan, an increase of 15 yuan. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,900 yuan, an increase of 1,000 yuan [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 73,737 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 991 yuan/ton; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,000 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,000 yuan/ton [2]. - The National Conference of Heads of Industry and Information Technology Departments was held in Beijing on July 28, aiming to deepen reforms, improve industry governance, and strengthen the construction of mandatory national standards in the industrial and information technology fields [3]. 3.3 Trend Strength The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].

Group 1 - The solar energy sector experienced significant stock price increases, with companies like Xurisheng Technology rising by 23.11%, Sunrun by 17.52%, and Tiger Technology ADR by 16.34% [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held its 15th manufacturing enterprise symposium, focusing on the photovoltaic industry [1] - Li Lecheng, the Minister of Industry and Information Technology, emphasized the need to address key challenges, regulate low-price competition, and guide companies to improve product quality [1] Group 2 - The meeting included discussions from 14 photovoltaic companies and industry association leaders [1] - The ministry aims to promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity to achieve healthy and sustainable development in the photovoltaic sector [1]