SHMET 网讯：美国经济正出现令人费解的异常现象，这让肩负遏制通胀和维护劳动力市场双重使 命的政策制定者感到不安。 今年美国企业显著放缓了招聘步伐，在无法完全预判特朗普全面经济政策影响的情况下，投资者普 遍持观望态度。劳工部数据显示，6月和8月就业岗位出现减少，截至9月的三个月平均新增就业人数仅 约6.2万。 然而作为经济产出关键驱动力的工人生产率却保持高位。衡量经济中所有商品与服务产出的国内生 产总值（GDP）也维持强劲。 这种经济扩张与劳动力市场疲软并存的矛盾现象，给美联储政策制定者带来了难题，使他们难以判 断经济究竟需要降温还是需要刺激。根据上周公布的会议纪要，美联储官员在10月会议上指出："稳健 的经济增长与疲弱的就业创造之间的分化，为政策决策创造了特别复杂的环境。" 政府停摆可能对今年10月至12月的当季GDP造成拖累，但市场普遍预期美国经济将在明年初收复大 部分损失。 与此同时，自年初以来特朗普的重大政策调整持续制约着美国劳动力市场。DA戴维森财富管理研 究总监詹姆斯·雷根（James Ragan）表示："由于影响劳动力供需的贸易和移民政策发生变化，今年就业 形势始终面临挑战。" 经济学家认为， ...

Market Overview - The tech sector is leading the way in stock buybacks, contributing significantly to a projected record of $1 trillion in buybacks this year, primarily driven by free cash flow from tech companies [2] - Economic data presents a mixed picture, with surface-level indicators appearing strong while underlying conditions show weakness, indicating a narrow economic recovery [3][4] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve's financial conditions index is at near all-time easy levels, suggesting that current interest rates are not overly restrictive [4] - Markets are anticipating more interest rate cuts than the Fed may actually implement, with a potential change in Fed leadership next May possibly influencing more aggressive easing policies [5][6][7] Labor Market and AI Impact - The labor market is experiencing job losses primarily due to federal government cuts, while AI-related job cuts remain relatively small at present [8][9] - Companies are investing in AI to control costs, which may lead to indirect job losses as they seek to offset expenses [10] Economic Growth and Stock Market - There is a possibility of a "jobless expansion," where the stock market continues to perform well despite sluggish hiring, driven by tech sector growth and high-income consumer spending [13][14] - However, if the labor market weakens significantly, consumer spending could decline, negatively impacting earnings expectations and the stock market [15]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. stock futures are rising following the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut of 2025, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market as investors anticipate further cuts later this year [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to a range of 4.00%-4.25% [2]. - Updated projections from the Fed suggest two additional rate cuts are likely in October and December [2]. Group 2: Economic Conditions - Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged a weakening economic backdrop, noting rising unemployment, softened labor demand, and slowed consumer spending, which have negatively impacted GDP growth [3]. - Powell described the housing market as "weak" and indicated a simultaneous cooling in both labor supply and demand [3][5]. - Inflation remains elevated, influenced by tariffs that may be temporary but could persist, creating a challenging economic situation [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Despite economic risks, the S&P 500 closed above 6,600 for the first time and is poised to cross 6,700 if futures gains hold [6]. - The market is interpreting weaker job numbers as beneficial for corporate margins, leading to what some strategists refer to as a "jobless expansion" [6]. - Lower interest rates and the expectation of further cuts are contributing to the rise in stock prices [6].