新华财经北京9月18日电美联储于周三（9月17日）如期宣布降息25个基点，美国国债收益率盘中跳水， 在美联储主席鲍威尔表态不支持大幅快速降息后，美债收益率直立反弹，普遍上涨4-6BP。 点阵图显示，美联储年内预计还将降息2次；9人支持年内再降息50个基点至3.5%-3.75%。2025年底利率 水平的中位数预测为3.6%。 据CME"美联储观察"，目前美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为12.3%，降息25个基点的概率为87.7%。 美联储12月维持利率不变的概率为1.1%，累计降息25个基点的概率为19.0%，累计降息50个基点的概率 为79.9%。 不过，鲍威尔表示，此次降息是一项"风险管理举措"（risk management decision），没有必要快速调整 利率。尽管近期通胀数据偏高，特别是商品价格受关税影响上行，但鲍威尔认为这更可能是一次性的价 格调整，而非引发持久通胀过程的信号。 道明证券美国利率策略主管Gennadiy Goldberg表示，鲍威尔不愿过度表达鸽派立场，这影响了利率走 势，尤其是在鲍威尔提及此次降息是作为一项"保险性"降息措施时，情况更是如此。 瑞士宝盛固定收益部门负责人Dar ...

Group 1 - The current market is pricing in multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, indicating a slightly lower threshold for hawkish surprises compared to dovish ones [1] - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a cautious communication approach and will not disclose too much information [1] - Economic forecasts and press conferences may emphasize that any rate cuts are precautionary, with a gradual approach to policy easing [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that implementing a precautionary interest rate cut is not a mistake [1] Group 1 - Waller's comments suggest a potential shift in monetary policy to address economic uncertainties [1] - The notion of a precautionary rate cut indicates a proactive approach to support economic growth [1] - This perspective may influence market expectations regarding future interest rate decisions [1]