Group 1 - Japan's long-term bond market is experiencing volatility, with the 10-year bond yield dropping to 1.56% after reaching a high of 1.59%, the highest since October 2008 [1][3] - The public debt-to-GDP ratio in Japan is currently at 263%, significantly higher than Greece's 142% during the 2010 debt crisis, indicating a severe debt situation [2][7] - Concerns are rising about the potential for increased fiscal spending following the upcoming Senate elections, which could exacerbate Japan's debt crisis [3][4] Group 2 - The recent increase in bond yields across various maturities suggests a market reaction to the Bank of Japan's adjustments in its quantitative easing policy, leading to reduced liquidity [3][6] - Major Japanese life insurance companies are reducing their holdings in long-term bonds due to significant losses, with a reported $600 million in unrealized losses last fiscal year [5][6] - The upcoming Senate elections are critical, as the ruling coalition faces challenges that may force a shift towards more expansive fiscal policies [4][9] Group 3 - Analysts predict that Japan's long-term bond yields will remain elevated due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances and potential fiscal expansion post-elections [6][8] - The Japanese government is likely to prioritize economic stability over strict fiscal discipline, potentially leading to increased debt levels [8][9] - There are concerns about Japan facing a recession, with recent economic indicators showing a deterioration in economic conditions [7][8]

美国的股，日本的债，没想到先"倒下"的还是日本。天天喊着风险高要暴跌的美股还在喘息，而全球市 场最大的灰犀牛还是让日本当上了。 全世界都从石破茂的口中得知，"日本本来的债务危机，甚至比希腊还严重"，这还不够惨，印度智库宣 称GDP已超日本成全球第四，同样是跟着美国"跑"，日本居然被印度反超？ 即便是王婆卖瓜，印度也的确具有时间机会，IMF在4月份发布了最新的《世界经济展望》报告，其中 提到印度2025财年GDP预计为3.9万亿美元，而日本预计为4.02万亿美元，这意味着2026年有可能"险 胜"。 停了三十年的日本，还有"牌"可打吗？这一轮金融博弈，是会重回广岛旧梦，还是会引爆大雷？对中国 又会有什么影响？ @吴晓波频道："有人戏言：美国的股（债）市、日本的债市、中国的楼市，成了当前世界最需要'搭 救'的三大市场。"最先迎来崩溃时刻的，是日本。为什么日本债券最近会爆雷呢？ 首先需要担责的是日本政府。"安倍经济学"的主要特点就是通过政策负利率和超低的市场利率，日本央 行通过无限额度买入日本政府发行的国债以推动长期利率的下降。在几乎零利率的情况下，日本政、府 可以借大量的钱而无需偿还高额利息。 事实上，日本长期以 ...