陈文博 中金公司食品饮料分析师: 位投资人，大家上午好。那也祝大家新年好，以及开工大吉。那今天上午，是中金组织的 大众食品的春节的情况跟踪电话会。我是中金的食品饮料组陈文博。那今天上午，我们请 到了两位综合的食品的专家与大家分享春节的情况。那第一位专家，主要负责华东、华中 以及华西地区的包括饮料，还有零食等大大的一些品类的运营。专家您好，能听到我说话 吗？ 华东华中华西食品综合专家: 你好，可以，没问题。 陈文博 中金公司食品饮料分析师: 对，那我们就开始。那第一个，首先我想问问，就是您代理的这个品类也比较多，那想问 一下春节期间，比如说这个几个大的品类，像乳制品、饮料、零食、速冻。包括调味品， 这几个品类分别的增速情况，和景气度。然后就综合来看的话，有没有什么地方比咱们之 前预期的要好，或者是要差的？ 华东华中华西食品综合专家: 我们先按照您刚才说的那个品类来说，我们今年的这个总体的品类分成像修石，修石我们 今年的整体性，春节的一二月份，这二月份我们是截止到 2 月 10 号左右。节前的这个数 据，那我们整体的出货比去年同期我们是增长了 10%左右，这所有的修饰，这里面主要是 以礼盒为主，这个品相。那从整个 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1][12] Core Insights - Overall industry sales performance slightly exceeded expectations; liquor met expectations while the restaurant chain outperformed [4] - The food and beverage sector showed strong sales during the Spring Festival, with a positive outlook for post-holiday inventory replenishment [7] Summary by Category - **Liquor**: Overall performance met expectations, with a projected decline in single to double digits. Notable performances from Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, while real estate liquor brands like Yingjia Gongjiu and Jinhui Jiu performed better [4] - **Snacks**: Maintained good sales during the Spring Festival, with double-digit growth expected. High-end gift boxes performed well, although high-priced gift boxes showed weaker sales. Positive feedback from bulk snack channels [4] - **Restaurant Chain**: B-end performance of condiments exceeded pre-holiday expectations, with overall sales expected to grow by double digits. Leading frozen food company Anjijia performed exceptionally well [4] - **Dairy Products**: Sales during the Spring Festival showed recovery, with liquid milk returning to positive growth and significant improvements in freshness, while price competition has eased [5] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the restaurant chain, followed by snacks and certain liquor brands. Recommended liquor stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Yingjia Gongjiu, and Jinhui Jiu. For consumer goods, recommended stocks include Anjijia, Angel Yeast, Yihai International, Weidong, and Wancheng Group [7]

华东食品综合大商要点20260222 春节整体动销： ■1-2月食品大类各品类均实现正向增长（出货销售额口径，下同），主因：1）春节错期，今年动销期更长；2） 返乡消费拉动性强。 ■结构性特征：刚需品增长更好，下沉市场动销积极，礼赠需求有所修复，价格促销同比收敛。 ■节后补库预期：良性动销下， 分品类： ■休闲食品：同比增长约10 华东食品综合大商要点20260222 春节整体动销： 分品类： ■休闲食品：同比增长约10%。 盐津、劲仔双位数增长，品类内表现最优；卫龙、洽洽增长较稳。 礼盒装分化明显，高价位礼盒复购乏力。 ■冻品：同比增长约7%。 安井增长约18%，全品类均表现积极（丸子、预制菜、肉类冻品等），思念、三全等增长约5~10%。 ■饮料：同比增长约5%，大规格（1L装）增速高。 东鹏特饮增长12%+，电解质水20%；农夫水品类同比个位数增长，无糖茶双位数增长。 ■1-2月食品大类各品类均实现正向增长（出货销售额口径，下同），主因：1）春节错期，今年动销期更长；2） 返乡消费拉动性强。 ■结构性特征：刚需品增长更好，下沉市场动销积极，礼赠需求有所修复，价格促销同比收敛。 ■节后补库预期：良性动销下， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Gujing Gongjiu (000596) with a target price of 300 RMB [1][5][24]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue of 16.42 billion RMB, down 13.9% year-on-year, and net profit of 3.96 billion RMB, down 16.6% [1][5]. - The third quarter saw a dramatic drop in revenue by 51.6% and net profit by 74.6%, attributed to proactive inventory reduction in response to market conditions [1][5]. - Despite the challenges, the company is expected to benefit from the upcoming Spring Festival sales, with a focus on channel stability and product innovation [1][5]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2024A: 23.578 billion RMB - 2025E: 19.250 billion RMB - 2026E: 20.018 billion RMB - 2027E: 21.582 billion RMB - Revenue growth rates: -18.4% in 2025E, 4.0% in 2026E, and 7.8% in 2027E [1][5][16]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2024A: 5.518 billion RMB - 2025E: 4.314 billion RMB - 2026E: 4.829 billion RMB - 2027E: 5.283 billion RMB - Net profit growth rates: -21.8% in 2025E, 11.9% in 2026E, and 9.4% in 2027E [1][5][16]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024A: 10.44 RMB - 2025E: 8.16 RMB - 2026E: 9.14 RMB - 2027E: 9.99 RMB [1][5][16]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio: 15 for 2024A, 19 for 2025E, 17 for 2026E, and 15 for 2027E - Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio: 3.2 for 2024A, 2.9 for 2025E, 2.6 for 2026E, and 2.3 for 2027E [1][5][16]. Market Performance - The company has shown resilience in its core markets, with expectations of gradual recovery in sales performance, particularly in key regions such as Anhui and Jiangsu [1][5]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on channel management and product innovation to navigate current market challenges and position itself for future growth [1][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Gujing Gongjiu with a target price of 300 CNY [1][6]. Core Views - The company shows resilience in market sales, with a focus on accelerating inventory reduction ahead of the Spring Festival [1][6]. - The management is pragmatic and flexible in adjusting operations to ensure long-term healthy development, particularly in stabilizing market share in the domestic market while exploring growth potential in external markets [6][8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 23,578 million CNY, 21,774 million CNY, 22,033 million CNY, and 23,249 million CNY respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.4% in 2024A, followed by a decline of 7.6% in 2025E [2][13]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted at 5,518 million CNY for 2024A, decreasing to 5,069 million CNY in 2025E, with a growth rate of 20.2% in 2024A and a decline of 8.1% in 2025E [2][13]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 10.44 CNY in 2024A, 9.59 CNY in 2025E, 10.02 CNY in 2026E, and 10.74 CNY in 2027E [2][13]. Market Performance - The company has shown a strong performance compared to the CSI 300 index, with a notable increase in market share in the domestic market despite external pressures [6][8]. - The marketing team has effectively executed strategies to enhance brand presence and sales, particularly in key regions such as Jiangsu and Anhui [6][8]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on product upgrades and new product launches to enhance market competitiveness, with a particular emphasis on maintaining price competitiveness while expanding market share [6][8]. - Marketing efforts are being intensified in preparation for the Spring Festival, aiming to boost sales and inventory reduction [6][8].

证券 研究报告 | 行业 定期报告 2024 年 11 月 24 日 签约客户可长按扫码阅读报告 临近年底酒企明年目标定调是关键，近期茅台、五粮液等也在拟定中，考虑各方 对明年需求预期谨慎，有望在理性下调增长目标上达成共识，以维护市场良性。后续渠 道释放包袱、报表触底过程中，投资者更关注实际动销，股价先于报表出现拐点。 食品个股提前完成库存调整，叠加春节备货提前，四季度增长有望超预期。中期 来看，乳制品、饮料、榨菜等板块或龙头也进入向上周期，未来 1-2 年有望盈利上修。 最新观点 核心公司跟踪：金徽酒控股股东增持，中炬高新股东权益变动。 金徽酒： 控股股东亚特集团增持公司股份，增持资金总额不低于人民币 5,000 万元，不超过人民币 10,000 万元。 伊力特： 刘新宇先生因达到法定退休年龄，特向公司董事会提出辞去董事、副总经理以及董事会下设战略委员会、薪酬与考核委员会委员职务。 洽洽食品： 拟回购部分股份，用于股权激励计划或员工持股计划，回购的资金总额不低于人民币 4,000 万元（含），且不超过人民币 8,000 万元（含），回购股份约占公司总 股本为 0.17% — 0.33% 。 中炬高新： 持股 ...