本文来自微信公众号： 秦朔朋友圈 （ID：qspyq2015） ，作者：何菲，题图来自：AI生成 明显感觉到，我生活的时代，我生活的城市和这座城市的人，到处都在转型。 大约在千禧初年到2017、2018年左右，我们友人之间小酌多数是喝红酒，不管真懂还是假懂，总得 在饮上一口后，用风雅感性的词汇评价一番。为此我还浮光掠影地研究过几年红酒，写过不少相关文 章。 后来，红酒热潮渐渐退去，进入平台期，身边友人们小酌的风格偏好渐渐往白酒方向转化。 前几年某次友人小聚，我坐在中医药大学少壮派教授身边，他执意鼓励我喝点白酒，说是补气、抗病 毒。从此我小酌时的主流佐餐酒换成了白酒。记得那天还有友人往白酒壶里加了半壶蒜瓣，说是能杀 灭病毒。坊间也有"加了蒜片的光瓶玻汾，能喝出青花汾的味道来"的传说。 杯里乾坤大，壶中日月长。 世界六大蒸馏酒的诞生地都分布在北纬25～40度之间，中国的两大名酒带——川贵名酒带和江淮名 酒带，都处于这个地理位置。 有很多年，白酒一直延续高端化的宏大叙事，有"向天再借五百年"的气势，代言人都是影视剧里常常 出现的帝王将相，再低调也是千里江山、雄厚激荡的调性，白酒似乎是传统文化的集大成者。 那些年，飞 ...

出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 段明珠 头图 | 视觉中国 在2023年底全球经销商大会上，古井贡酒吹响"冲向300亿、奋进新征程"的号角，但那成了绝唱，后续再也不听不到300亿这个目标数字；2024年古井贡近些 年首次没有实现"精准"增长计划，且在年报中对2025年也仅给出一个模糊的"营业总收入较上年度实现稳健增长"的营收计划。 论业绩，古井贡酒算是当前白酒赛道除茅台外"最靓的仔"，2024年营收和净利分别同比增长16.41%、20.22%；25年Q1营收和净利增速仍保持双位数增长， 分别为10.38%和12.84%，占了行业第二和第一的位置。 而且，过去古井贡酒凭借国资背景其实在省内找不到真正的对手（老对手口子窖和迎驾贡酒都是民营企业），但新"禁酒令"实际上对地方"政商酒"会造成深 远影响。 但有业内人士认为，古井贡酒的高增还是通过给渠道压货完成，增长不够健康。这看起来有些道理，复盘古井贡过往的增长，其以"年份原浆"打开次高端市 场，坚持深度分销在徽酒里断层第一，虽然未能成功全国化，但在行业下行周期已表现很亮眼。 所以未来古井贡酒是增长还是下滑的核心在3点，首先是产品能不能打（品牌力）；如果相对较弱，是否 ...

研究报告 Research Report 20 Jun 2025 古井贡酒 Anhui Gujing Distillery Company (000596 CH) 古井贡酒跟踪报告：砥砺前行，价值显现 Building on strengths, value becomes apparent [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info 上调至优于大市 ] Upgrade to OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 Rmb135.90 目标价 Rmb191.00 HTI ESG 4.0-4.0-4.5 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 义利评级 BB+ 来源 : 盟浪 . Reproduced by permission; no further distribution 市值 Rmb67.09bn / US$9.33bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$54.11mn 发行股票数目 408.60mn 自由流通股 (%) - 1 年股价最高最低值 ...

"禁酒令"发布后至今不到一月，对酒类、尤其白酒行业的震撼，不仅没有减弱，反而进一步加深。 从结构上看，"禁酒令"对不同价格带的白酒企业，影响各有不同。 300 元以下的中低端酒，主要是居民自饮和宴饮，受影响相对偏小。受影响比较大的，主要是中高 端白酒。 导 语： "禁酒令"之后，本省政务口的影响力资源趋近于无。长期来看，古井贡品牌力和产品结 构向上的升级进度，将受很大波及。 "禁酒令"升级 禁令发布前一日 5 月 17 日到 6 月 13 日， 飞天茅台跌破 2000 元心理关口，从 2080 元 / 瓶下滑至 1960 元 / 瓶。 受"禁酒令"较大牵连的白酒，业内人士认为，主要是带有一定"政商"色彩的白酒，比如古井贡酒（ 000596.SZ ）和今世缘（ 603369.SH ）等。 从"禁酒令"发布后的股价涨跌幅看，也反映了这一认识。 | 公司名称 | 潔跌幅 | | --- | --- | | | (5月17日至6月12日) | | 山西汾酒 | -15.20% | | 今世缘 | -13.11% | | 古井贡酒 | -12. 40% | | 迎驾贡酒 | -11.00% | | 泸州老窖 | -10 ...

2025年6月12日 证券研究报告 | 白酒板块6月投资策略 淡季价格体现压力，估值或进入底部布局期 行业研究·行业专题 食品饮料·白 酒 投资评级：优于大市 证券分析师：张向伟 联系人：张未艾 zhangxiangwei@guosen.com.cn zhangweiai@guosen.com.cn S0980523090001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 ◼第二季度进入白酒行业传统淡季，叠加环境不确定因素增加，板块股价走弱。需求看，Q2以来关税政策扰动宏观经济，5月出台《党政机 关厉行节约反对浪费条例》，政商务消费场景受到一定影响；五一&端午小旺季宴席场次有所回补，单场均开瓶表现一般，整体需求延续 平淡。供给看，酒厂多以维护渠道健康度为先，纾压渠道、慢速发货；另一方面伴随即时零售强势入局，"618"线上酒类销量延续高速 增长，美团闪购大力度补贴，对传统渠道名酒价格产生冲击，高端白酒批价环比下跌。市场担忧需求压制、价格松动对短期基本面的影响， 估值持续回调。 ◼行业降速共识进一步强化，个股alpha边际降低，酒企股东大会传递理性增长态度。2025Q2伴随行业beta进一步走弱，个股 ...

研究报告 ResearchReport 6 May 2025 中国必需消费 China (A-share) Staples 中国消费品 4 月需求报告：多数行业增速小幅改善 The Growth Rates of Most Industries Slightly Improved [Table_yemei1] Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 股票名称 | 评级 | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform 古井贡酒 | Neutral | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform 今世缘 | Outperform | | 五粮液 | Outperform 燕京啤酒 | Outperform | | 五粮液 | Outperform 迎驾贡酒 | Outperform | | 山西汾酒 | Outperform 安琪酵母 | Outperform | | 海天味业 | Outperform 重庆啤酒 | Outperform | | 海天味业 | Outperform 重庆啤酒 | Outperform | ...

五一白酒动销跟踪 20250505 摘要 • 茅台通过调整产品结构和加强渠道管理来平衡收入与市场价格，飞天茅台 保持稳定，公鸡茅台增加配额外供应，并放宽经销商报备限制，开发新场 景和客户，同时适当增加经销商库存，加快商务节奏。 • 2025 年茅台经销渠道进度加快，1-4 月已完成飞天总量约 50%，合同计 划达 48%，公司通过调整发货节奏有效应对市场需求和压力，保持价格稳 定，并积极转型，发展新客户群体，应对行业整体偏弱的态势。 • 白酒行业整体趋势下降，但茅台表现亮眼，飞天系列库存保持合理水平， 通过性价比引导需求释放，调整营销渠道和策略，实现相对稳定发展，高 端白酒品牌也展现一定韧性，但总体面临压力。 • 五粮液一批价稳定在 915-920 元，但市场需求不足导致动销缓慢，库存压 力较大，公司承诺不让经销商赔钱，但实际情况不乐观，市场信任度降低， 烟酒店对涨价持悲观态度，影响动销。 • 国窖 1,573 高度酒一批价 860 元，低度酒 610 元，山东市场以低度酒为 主，动销较好，通过与烟酒店签订包量协议，加强管控，但经销商仍面临 赔钱风险，库存压力较高。 Q&A 茅台在 2025 年的价格走势如何 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for 2024 and Q1 2025, with revenue and net profit growth, alongside a significant dividend proposal for shareholders [1][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 23.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%, and a net profit of 5.5 billion yuan, up 20.2% year-on-year [1]. - For Q4 2024, revenue was 4.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 4.8% year-on-year growth, while net profit was 770 million yuan, down 0.7% year-on-year [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 9.1 billion yuan, a 10.4% increase year-on-year, with net profit at 2.33 billion yuan, up 12.8% year-on-year [1]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 50 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), with a total proposed dividend of 3.17 billion yuan for 2024, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 57.5%, an increase of 5.7 percentage points year-on-year [1][4]. Product Performance - The revenue from aged raw liquor reached 18.1 billion yuan, a 17% increase year-on-year, with volume and price growth of 12% and 5% respectively [2]. - Revenue from Gujing Gongjiu was 2.2 billion yuan, up 11% year-on-year, with volume and price changes of 9% and 2% respectively [2]. - The company expects continued strong growth for its premium products, Gu8 and Gu16, driven by banquet demand and consumption upgrades in the province [2]. Cost Management and Profitability - The company maintained a gross margin of 79.9% in 2024 and 79.7% in Q1 2025, with slight year-on-year changes of +0.8 and -0.7 percentage points respectively [3]. - The expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs were reduced in 2024, contributing to improved net profit margins of 23.4% and 25.5% for 2024 and Q1 2025 respectively [3]. Market Outlook - The company has a solid domestic market foundation and is optimistic about expanding its presence in external markets, with a focus on national growth [4]. - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 to 6.2 billion and 6.8 billion yuan respectively, with a projected net profit of 7.5 billion yuan for 2027 [4].

Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 23.578 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.517 billion yuan, up 20.22% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.146 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.38%, and a net profit of 2.330 billion yuan, up 12.78% year-on-year, slightly exceeding market expectations due to resilient income [1] Revenue Growth - The company's business in Anhui province continues to be a major contributor to revenue growth, with the annual raw liquor series showing ongoing structural upgrades [1] - In Q1 2025, revenue grew by 10.4% year-on-year, driven by strong performance from brands such as Gu 8 and Gu 16, while Gu 5 also performed well [1] - The revenue from the annual raw liquor series in the second half of 2024 increased by 9.7% year-on-year, with a slight slowdown in volume growth but a continuation of structural upgrades [1] Cost Management - The company demonstrated strong cost control capabilities, with a net profit growth of 12.8% in Q1 2025, driven by a reduction in expense ratios [2] - The sales expense ratio decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 26.6%, and the management expense ratio fell by 0.5 percentage points to 4.4% [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the expansion of the 100-300 yuan price range in Anhui province, along with improved banquet demand due to the dual spring year effect [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to overall weak consumption, the company has lowered its 2025 profit forecast by 3% to 6.14 billion yuan and introduced a 2026 profit forecast of 6.77 billion yuan [3] - The target price remains at 226 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5x for 2025 and 17.6x for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 35.2% from the current stock price [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 23.58 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.52 billion yuan, up 20.2% year-on-year, with a dividend payout ratio of 57.5%, an increase of 5.7 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 770 million yuan, a decrease of 0.7% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenues and net profits of 9.15 billion yuan and 2.33 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 10.4% and 12.8% [1] - The contract liabilities at the end of Q1 2025 were 3.67 billion yuan, an increase of 159 million yuan compared to the end of Q4 2024 [1] Group 2: Revenue Growth Analysis - The company focused on inventory control in Q4, leading to a stable but reduced growth rate. The revenue growth for the year was driven by the Year Original Series, Gujing Gongjiu, and Huanghelou, with increases of 17.3%, 11.2%, and 15.1% respectively [2] - The second half of 2024 saw a significant slowdown in growth rates for the Year Original Series, while Gujing Gongjiu benefited from the volume increase of products priced below 100 yuan [2] - Regional performance showed varied results, with North China, Central China, South China, and international markets growing by 7.4%, 17.8%, 11.2%, and 2.9% respectively for the year [2] Group 3: Profitability and Cash Flow - In Q1 2025, the gross profit margin decreased by 0.7 percentage points due to a shift in product mix, while the net profit margin increased by 0.5 percentage points [3] - The contract liabilities at the end of Q4 2024 increased by 81.6% to 3.52 billion yuan, indicating strong accumulation of resources for future growth [3] - The cash flow from operations showed a slight decline of 1.6% year-on-year in Q1 2025, but the contract liabilities increased by 4.5% compared to Q4 2024, aligning with revenue growth [3] Group 4: Strategic Focus - The company aims for stable growth in 2025 without setting specific growth targets, focusing on healthy operations and maintaining double-digit growth in Q1 2025 [4] - The product strategy includes enhancing the Gujing Gongjiu series and expanding the old porcelain and old glass products to drive additional revenue [4] - The company’s dividend payout ratio of 57.5% reflects its commitment to shareholder returns, enhancing its appeal to long-term investors [4] Group 5: Investment Outlook - The company is positioned for stable growth with a strong start in Q1 2025, and the valuation appears attractive with a projected EPS of 11.62 yuan for 2025, corresponding to a valuation of only 14 times [5] - The EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 11.62 and 12.98 yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 14.53 yuan, maintaining a target price of 300 yuan [5]