➢ 投资建议：公司短期内降速抒压，消化渠道库存，报表加速调整；中长期来 看，公司调整经营节奏，强化大本营市场运作，梳理海天梦主导产品价格体系， 同时持续扩展省外市场，静待需求修复重拾增长。我们预计公司 25-27 年归母净 利润分别为 37.9、44.3、54.4 亿元，EPS 分别为 2.51、2.94、3.61 元，当前股 价对应 P/E 分别为 28、24、20X，维持"推荐"评级。 ➢ 风险提示：省内市场竞争加剧、省外扩张不及预期、次高端修复不达预期。 延续深度调整，静待改善拐点 2025 年 11 月 02 日 ➢ 事件：公司于 2025 年 10 月 31 日发布 2025 年三季报，25Q1-3 实现营收 180.9 亿元，同比-34.3%；实现归母净利润 39.8 亿元，同比-53.7%；实现扣非 归母净利润 37.6 亿元，同比-55.3%。单季度看，25Q3 实现营收 33.0 亿元，同 比-29.0%；实现归母净利润-3.7 亿元，扣非归母净利润-4.8 亿元，同比由盈转 亏。 ➢ 禁酒令影响下持续调整，盈利能力承压。利润方面：2025Q1-3 公司毛利率 同比-2.7pcts 至 71 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Gujing Gongjiu (000596) with a target price of 300 RMB [1][5][24]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue of 16.42 billion RMB, down 13.9% year-on-year, and net profit of 3.96 billion RMB, down 16.6% [1][5]. - The third quarter saw a dramatic drop in revenue by 51.6% and net profit by 74.6%, attributed to proactive inventory reduction in response to market conditions [1][5]. - Despite the challenges, the company is expected to benefit from the upcoming Spring Festival sales, with a focus on channel stability and product innovation [1][5]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2024A: 23.578 billion RMB - 2025E: 19.250 billion RMB - 2026E: 20.018 billion RMB - 2027E: 21.582 billion RMB - Revenue growth rates: -18.4% in 2025E, 4.0% in 2026E, and 7.8% in 2027E [1][5][16]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2024A: 5.518 billion RMB - 2025E: 4.314 billion RMB - 2026E: 4.829 billion RMB - 2027E: 5.283 billion RMB - Net profit growth rates: -21.8% in 2025E, 11.9% in 2026E, and 9.4% in 2027E [1][5][16]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024A: 10.44 RMB - 2025E: 8.16 RMB - 2026E: 9.14 RMB - 2027E: 9.99 RMB [1][5][16]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio: 15 for 2024A, 19 for 2025E, 17 for 2026E, and 15 for 2027E - Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio: 3.2 for 2024A, 2.9 for 2025E, 2.6 for 2026E, and 2.3 for 2027E [1][5][16]. Market Performance - The company has shown resilience in its core markets, with expectations of gradual recovery in sales performance, particularly in key regions such as Anhui and Jiangsu [1][5]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on channel management and product innovation to navigate current market challenges and position itself for future growth [1][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Buy-A, with a target price of 41.79 CNY for the next six months [4][5]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with a revenue of 2.531 billion CNY, down 20.07% year-on-year, and a net profit of 715 million CNY, down 24.63% year-on-year [1][2]. - The high-end liquor segment is under pressure, while the low-end liquor segment showed slight growth, helping to offset the decline in high-end sales [2][3]. - The company is focusing on market, structural, and brand upgrades, while also enhancing digital marketing and e-commerce efforts to strengthen its core market and cultivate external growth [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 721 million CNY, a decrease of 48.48% year-on-year, and a net profit of 105 million CNY, down 70.91% year-on-year [1][3]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 65.18%, a decrease of 9.86 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to reduced revenue from high-end liquor and an increase in low-margin products [3]. - The company’s net profit margin for Q2 2025 was 14.51%, down 11.18 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected revenue growth rates for 2025 to 2027 are -21.0%, +4.3%, and +7.0%, respectively, while net profit growth rates are expected to be -28.6%, +7.2%, and +7.3% [4][10]. - The average valuation for comparable companies suggests a PE ratio of 21.22x for 2025 [4][9].