沿着最小阻力的方向，符合人性，但不一定通往最优结果，突破阻力是改革的应有之 义。"反内卷"不等于"涨价去产能"，是一个需要中央、地方和司法体系协同配合的改 革过程。高度重视反内卷政策，准确把握改革方向。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/赵宏鹤 一、阻力最小的方向 对市场来说，要在短时间内参与"反内卷"主题，上游行业同样是阻力最小的方向： 2016 年供改记忆 犹新——逻辑直观容易理解，市场流动性宽松——情绪容易催化，商品价格和行业估值处于历史低位 ——筹码结构容易拉升。 但阻力最小的方向不一定通往最优的结果。 一个简单的例子是，当前形势下，如果反内卷仅限于上游 涨价去产能，那么真正深陷于内卷的中下游行业特别是新兴行业，将会面临更大的竞争压力，甚至加剧 内卷。回顾过往， 21 年的"双碳"一度出现合成谬误，好在数月之后得到纠偏。 对市场来说，流动性、情绪、反通缩预期和筹码结构的铺垫固然可以降低阻力，但拉长时间仍需经历现 实的检验，这需要切实的供给收缩和需求回暖，本质上是要对齐高层改革的意图，否则将会面临证伪的 风险。 二、改革之路 要实现最优结果，就要突破很多阻力，这也是改革的应有之义。 物理学里有一个"最小阻力定律"，指 ...

Group 1: Reform and Market Dynamics - The principle of "minimum resistance" applies to both physical laws and human behavior, suggesting that reforms must overcome significant obstacles to achieve optimal outcomes[4] - The "anti-involution" reform aims to address chaotic price wars and unfair competition, particularly in industries closely related to local government actions, such as "new three samples" and e-commerce platforms[2] - The reform is expected to enhance product quality and improve profit margins and investment returns for leading companies in relevant industries[12] Group 2: Industry Focus and Implications - The report highlights that the automotive and solar energy sectors have seen significant growth, with electric vehicle sales up 40.3% and exports up 75.2% year-on-year, yet profit margins are declining due to oversupply and inefficiencies[6] - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is likely to incorporate the anti-involution reforms, indicating that more policies will be implemented in the future[12] - The focus on reform is not merely about raising prices or reducing capacity but involves a comprehensive approach to improve industry standards and governance[12] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - There is a risk that local governments and industries may misinterpret policy intentions, leading to ineffective capacity reduction efforts[3] - External factors, such as upcoming US-China trade talks, may influence domestic policy focus and implementation effectiveness[13]