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A股策略周报20250921:风格再均衡,寻找新主线-20251026
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-10-26 09:15
Group 1 - The report indicates that the risks in the market have been alleviated, particularly regarding the U.S. service sector and regional bank concerns, which have contributed to a more stable investment environment [2][10][25] - The U.S. October PMI data showed service PMI at 55.2% and manufacturing PMI at 52.2%, both exceeding market expectations, which alleviated recession fears [10][25] - The TMT sector has seen a shift in trading logic, expanding beyond AI infrastructure to include domestic computing power and consumer electronics, indicating a rebalancing of investment styles [3][13][14] Group 2 - The report highlights the potential for global manufacturing recovery, which is expected to drive physical consumption expansion and create investment opportunities in key resources like copper and lithium [25][27] - China's position as a "seller of shovels" in the global manufacturing landscape is emphasized, particularly in the power sector, where it has advantages in renewable energy equipment exports [25][27] - The report suggests that the combination of effective markets and proactive government policies will be crucial for navigating deflationary pressures and stabilizing domestic prices [44][45] Group 3 - The report outlines a shift in investment focus towards physical assets, particularly in the context of a potential interest rate cut cycle, which could enhance manufacturing activity and resource demand [4][56] - The recommended investment sequence includes upstream resources and capital goods, reflecting China's role in the global supply chain and the expected recovery in domestic consumption [4][56] - The report notes that the market is currently in a phase of seeking new opportunities as risks have subsided, with a focus on sectors that show signs of recovery and growth potential [53][54]
统筹“两只手”持续发挥合力
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-10-18 01:01
面向"十五五",需要在实践中不断推动有效市场与有为政府更好结合。政府要通过进一步全面深化 改革,破除市场壁垒,维护公平竞争,为市场有效运行创造制度环境;市场要通过效率提升、创新激 励,为政府宏观调控提供微观基础。 此外,改进治理工具、提升治理效能也至关重要。政府要适应数字经济时代要求,创新监管方式, 提高治理精准性;市场建设要同步完善法治保障、信用体系等基础制度,切实降低交易成本。 作为"十五五"时期的战略任务,新质生产力的发展尤其依赖于二者高效协同。例如,部分前沿领域 创新周期长、风险高、投入大,单纯依靠市场机制可能导致短期逐利而忽视长远战略布局。这就需要政 府发挥"有为"作用,通过产业政策、研发资助和创新生态构建,为企业创新提供支撑。同时,也要避免 政府过度干预扭曲市场信号,伤害企业创新热情。如何精准平衡"看得见的手"与"看不见的手",是考验 经济治理艺术、推动经济高质量发展必须解决的重大课题。 当今世界进入动荡变革期,"黑天鹅""灰犀牛"事件频发,有效市场与有为政府相结合被赋予了新的 使命。特别是在粮食、能源、金融等重点领域,市场机制通过分散决策、价格信号和竞争压力,能够有 效提高资源配置效率,增强经济 ...
经济日报金观平:统筹“两只手”持续发挥合力
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-10-17 21:43
中央政治局近日召开会议讨论"十五五"规划建议稿,强调"十五五"时期经济社会发展"坚持有效市场和 有为政府相结合,充分发挥市场在资源配置中的决定性作用,更好发挥政府作用"。 为何在"十五五"时期仍需坚持这一原则?理解其中深意,须将其置于改革开放40余年的宏大背景中考 量。 回顾过去40多年的成绩,从计划经济到"使市场对资源配置起基础性作用",再到确立"使市场在资源配 置中起决定性作用,更好发挥政府作用",我国经济发展奇迹很大程度上得益于对政府与市场关系的持 续探索与调适。这种认识的飞跃不是来自书本教条,而是源于对不同经济发展阶段的精准把握和对实践 经验的系统总结。 当前,我国发展面临的内外部环境发生了深刻变化,外部压力加大,内部困难增多。面对复杂形势,置 身变革之中,单方面强调政府主导或市场放任都难以应对这些挑战。唯有坚持有效市场与有为政府相结 合,实现双轮驱动,方能推动我国经济行稳致远。 当今世界进入动荡变革期,"黑天鹅""灰犀牛"事件频发,有效市场与有为政府相结合被赋予了新的使 命。特别是在粮食、能源、金融等重点领域,市场机制通过分散决策、价格信号和竞争压力,能够有效 提高资源配置效率,增强经济韧性;而政府 ...