Group 1 - The core focus of the article is on the performance of copper and aluminum in January, highlighting their active trading patterns amidst geopolitical uncertainties and macroeconomic changes [1][2] - Geopolitical instability has heightened market risk aversion, with silver prices surging due to overseas supply tightness, which has significantly impacted the price movements of copper and aluminum [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in January and the clarity regarding key uncertainties, such as tariffs on critical minerals and the nomination of the Fed chair, are expected to stabilize the market and reduce the influence of silver on copper and aluminum pricing [1][2] Group 2 - The copper market is experiencing a supply tightness not seen in years, with the processing fee for copper concentrate set at zero dollars per ton for 2026, indicating extreme supply constraints [2] - Domestic and international scrap copper supplies are under pressure due to seasonal factors and stricter regulatory policies, further tightening raw material availability [2] - Although demand is currently subdued due to the seasonal impact of the Spring Festival, underlying structural resilience remains, particularly in the cable and air conditioning sectors, with expectations of a rapid recovery in inventory once peak demand returns [2] Group 3 - The aluminum market is currently in a relatively loose supply situation, with stable production and attractive profit margins for electrolytic aluminum, leading to a lack of strong supply-side drivers similar to copper [2] - However, aluminum prices are supported by high energy costs and ongoing demand growth in sectors such as lightweighting for electric vehicles and photovoltaic frames, indicating a structural growth trajectory [2] - The narratives for copper and aluminum are expected to continue evolving, with copper's story centered on resource scarcity and energy transition, while aluminum's narrative focuses on cost support and demand upgrades [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-11 静待消费跟上，基本金属震荡整固 有⾊观点：静待消费跟上，基本⾦属震荡整固 交易逻辑：11月欧美制造业PMI普遍回落且美国11月ADP就业数据偏弱，投 资者对美联储降息预期较为乐观，整体上看，宏观面预期偏正面。原料端 延续偏紧局面，并逐步往冶炼端传导，供应端收缩风险仍然存在。终端略 偏弱，11月初汽车销售增速同比转降，12月空调排产降幅扩大，2026年1- 2月排产预计改善，基本金属现实供需改善放缓，但预期偏紧。整体来 看，中短期，宏观面预期正面+供应扰动担忧继续支撑价格，但高价对消 费抑制将限制进一步走高，基本金属转为震荡整固，可谨慎关注铜铝锡低 吸做多机会；长期，国内潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰 动问题仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期，看好铜铝锡价格走势。 铜观点：供应存收缩预期，铜价⾼位震荡。 氧化铝观点：过剩状态未有明显改善，氧化铝价继续承压。 铝观点：宏观预期反复，铝价⾼位震荡。 铝合⾦观点：仓单延续回升，盘⾯⾼位震荡。 锌观点：社会库存下降，锌价⾼位震荡。 铅观点：社会库存仍处低位，铅价⽌跌企稳。 ...