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有色金属行业新周期
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国诚投顾:势如破竹确立新周期,行业景气将继续上行
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-02 05:46
Core Viewpoint - The industry is expected to stabilize in 2024, with a recovery in macro expectations following the potential Geneva Agreement between China and the U.S. in 2025, leading to an upward cycle in non-ferrous metal prices and industry performance [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - The price and performance of non-ferrous metals are anticipated to rise due to supply chain disruptions and liquidity easing, establishing a new upward cycle [1] - Copper supply constraints continue, with limited new projects and effective production disruptions, while demand from traditional sectors eases and new sectors like renewable energy and data centers emerge [1] - The price of copper is expected to rise as liquidity improves with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] Precious Metals - A bullish trend for gold is likely to continue, driven by the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansion, which will increase global gold ETF purchases [1] - The growing U.S. debt and concerns over credit issues are expected to lead to increased gold purchases by central banks and private investors, supporting mid-term price increases [1] Energy Metals - The price of cobalt is expected to rise due to supply constraints from Congo's export quota management and limited new supply from Indonesia, alongside increasing demand from electric vehicles and consumer electronics [1] - The supply-demand gap for cobalt is projected to widen from 2025 to 2026, indicating a clear upward trend in prices [1] Rare Metals - The strategic value of rare earth metals is increasing, with a favorable supply-demand balance due to stable traditional demand and emerging new demands [2] - Domestic supply controls are strengthening, enhancing industry concentration and monopolistic positions, which is likely to push prices upward and improve profitability for magnetic material companies [2] Investment Strategy - Focus on three areas: 1) Continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will drive global gold ETF purchases, benefiting gold prices [3] 2) Ongoing copper supply shortages and new demand from AI data centers will support copper price increases [3] 3) Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to supply restrictions from Congo and depleting domestic inventories [3]
银河证券有色行业2026年度策略:势如破竹确立新周期 行业景气将继续上行
Core Viewpoint - The report from Galaxy Securities indicates that the non-ferrous metal industry is expected to stabilize after hitting a bottom in 2024, with a new upward cycle anticipated due to various macroeconomic factors and policy changes [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The non-ferrous metal prices and industry performance are projected to improve continuously, establishing a new upward cycle in the industry [1] - The anticipated recovery in macro expectations following the Geneva Agreement between China and the U.S. in 2025 is expected to further support this upward trend [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Continued interest in gold is expected as the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, leading to increased allocations in gold by global central banks and investors, which will support mid-term gold price increases [1] - A shortage of copper mines is expected to persist, with improved macro expectations and liquidity from the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, alongside new demand from large-scale AI data center constructions, likely driving copper prices higher [1] - The implementation of export quota policies in the Democratic Republic of Congo is anticipated to restrict global cobalt supply, leading to a significant increase in cobalt prices as domestic inventories are depleted [1] - Tightened domestic policies affecting supply and exports are expected to change the industry landscape, with steady demand growth leading to a stabilization and recovery in rare earth prices, significantly improving corporate profitability in the rare earth permanent magnet sector [1]