有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 Grasberg 铜矿宣布复产计划，中期铜冶炼 费或存上行预期 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 铜矿重启进度不及预期风险、中游铜冶炼扩产进度超预期风险、宏观经济波动导致下游 铜需求不及预期风险、产能统计遗漏影响测算结果风险 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 24 日 看好（维持） | 刘洋 | 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | | | liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄雨韵 | 执业证书编号：S0860125070019 | | --- | --- | | | huangyuyun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 当降息预期回摆，关注中期财政发力受益 | 2025-11-17 | | --- | --- | | 品种：——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年 | | | 第 46 周） | | | 西芒杜项目顺利投产，铁矿供给格 ...

Company Overview - Zhongfu Industrial (SH 600595) announced on November 19 that its 11th Board of Directors' 9th meeting was held via telecommunication, where the proposal for the election of independent directors was reviewed [1] - As of the report date, Zhongfu Industrial has a market capitalization of 26.5 billion yuan [1] Revenue Composition - For the first half of 2025, Zhongfu Industrial's revenue composition is as follows: Non-ferrous industry accounts for 94.76%, electricity for 9.96%, coal for 2.71%, and other businesses for 0.47%, with a negative offset of 7.9% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the mixed performance of various commodity prices in October, highlighting the resilience of the non-ferrous metals sector amid macroeconomic factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and supply disruptions from Indonesia [1][4]. Group 1: Commodity Price Trends - The BPI index recorded 870 points as of October 30, reflecting a 0.6% increase from the end of September, with energy prices down 0.6% and non-ferrous metal prices up 2.2% month-on-month [1][4]. - In the domestic market, prices of thermal coal and coking coal futures saw significant increases of 9.2% and 19.1% respectively, while chemical products, cement, and glass prices showed notable declines of -1.9%, -3.1%, and -10.6% respectively [8][10]. - The South China comprehensive index remained flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year average decrease of 0.3% compared to a previous increase of 6.0% [8]. Group 2: Real Estate Market - The second-hand housing price index in major cities continued to adjust, with declines of -1.2%, -0.7%, -1.7%, and -0.9% in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen respectively as of October 20 [10]. Group 3: Emerging Industries - Prices in emerging sectors such as storage chips and lithium carbonate remained strong, while the photovoltaic industry saw a price decline, with the photovoltaic industry composite index (SPI) down 0.5% month-on-month [2][11]. - The DXI index, representing the semiconductor (DRAM) industry, surged by 93.5% month-on-month, indicating a robust outlook for the memory sector [2][11]. Group 4: Shipping and Logistics - In the export shipping sector, the China Container Freight Index (CCFI) fell by 6.1% month-on-month, while the WCID container freight indices for routes to Los Angeles and New York increased by 5.5% and 8.9% respectively [13]. - The average value of the road logistics price index showed a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, indicating a gradual decline from the peak observed in June [15]. Group 5: Food Prices - Food prices exhibited mixed trends, with the average wholesale price of pork declining by 7.8% and key vegetable prices rising by 13.6% month-on-month [3][15].

Core Viewpoint - The consensus reached during the China-US Kuala Lumpur economic and trade consultations is expected to stabilize trade relations, improve China's external circulation, and reduce market risk premiums [1][3]. Macro - The reduction and continued suspension of tariffs will help improve China-US trade and support Chinese exports. The US will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and suspend the 24% equivalent tariff for one year, leading to a decrease in the overall effective tariff rate from 27% to 17% by 2025 [4][5]. - The expected increase in Chinese exports to the US could be around 10% due to the lowered tariff rate [4]. Export Controls - The US will suspend the implementation of the "50% penetration rule" for export controls for one year, which will benefit trade in key areas between China and the US. China will also relax certain export controls for rare earths and lithium battery materials for one year [6]. International Trade Costs - The suspension of port fees and related measures by both countries is expected to lower international trade costs and enhance shipping demand, particularly for agricultural products [7][19]. Agriculture - The consensus to expand agricultural trade is expected to accelerate trade in agricultural products, with projections indicating a slight decrease in China's soybean import share from the US in 2025 [7][20]. Technology - The outcomes of the consultations are favorable for the Chinese technology sector, particularly in terms of tariff reductions on electronic products and the suspension of certain export control measures, although restrictions on advanced technology access remain [25]. Commodities - The cancellation and delay of tariff barriers are expected to boost short-term demand for various commodities, including copper and aluminum, while also supporting the prices of precious metals like gold and silver [27][28]. Internet - The reduction in tariffs is expected to benefit cross-border e-commerce platforms, allowing them to maintain competitive pricing in the US market [31]. Textiles and Apparel - The easing of trade tensions may help stabilize the utilization rate of textile and apparel production capacity in China, benefiting companies that have not fully relocated their production [33]. Home Appliances - The reduction in tariff pressure is expected to provide direct benefits to the home appliance sector, improving the profitability of companies heavily reliant on exports to the US [36][37].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Zhongfu Industrial (SH 600595) held its 11th eighth board meeting on October 27, 2025, via telecommunication to discuss the proposal for the second extraordinary general meeting of shareholders in 2025 [1] - For the first half of 2025, Zhongfu Industrial's revenue composition is as follows: non-ferrous industry accounts for 94.76%, electricity for 9.96%, coal for 2.71%, other businesses for 0.47%, and consolidated offsets for -7.9% [1] - As of the time of reporting, Zhongfu Industrial has a market capitalization of 25.9 billion yuan [1]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.81%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.36% [1] - Technology stocks continued their rebound, with Alibaba rising over 2% as it launched pre-sales for its first self-developed AI glasses [1] - The non-ferrous metal industry showed signs of recovery, with Luoyang Molybdenum Co. increasing by over 4% [1] Group 2 - Wisco Real Estate resumed trading and surged over 90%, planning to privatize and delist for HKD 12.76 billion [1]

Core Viewpoint - The investment philosophy of Yin Hua Fund emphasizes long-term absolute returns, focusing on stable holding experiences for investors rather than maximizing short-term net value gains [1][2]. Investment Style and Strategy - The team led by He Wei integrates absolute return concepts into their relative return-focused public funds, aiming for balanced investment styles that provide excess returns while controlling maximum drawdowns [2][3]. - He Wei's investment framework prioritizes stocks with strong fundamental trends and safety margins, emphasizing price at entry, win rates, potential returns, valuation, and trading crowding [3][4]. Performance Metrics - The Yin Hua Hu Shen Stock Connect Fund, managed by He Wei, achieved a three-year unit net value growth rate of 24.08%, ranking in the top 3% of its category, with an annual excess return of 3-12 percentage points from 2022 to 2024 [3][10]. Market Outlook - The Chinese capital market is viewed as undervalued, with strong fundamentals in manufacturing, technology, and pharmaceuticals, and is expected to benefit from foreign capital inflows in the future [7]. - The A-share market is anticipated to experience volatility due to structural changes, but the long-term outlook remains positive [7][8]. Sector Preferences - The long-term investment value in the non-ferrous metals sector is highlighted, with commodities like gold, copper, and aluminum expected to maintain favorable supply-demand dynamics [8]. - The financial sector, particularly bank stocks and brokerages, is seen as having reasonable valuations and potential for recovery as market conditions improve [8]. New Fund Launch - The upcoming Yin Hua Xin He Mixed Securities Investment Fund will adopt a floating management fee structure, aiming to build a long-term relationship with investors through steady returns [6]. - This new fund will include investments in the Hong Kong stock market, which is perceived to offer attractive opportunities compared to A-shares [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent price increases in products and rising downstream demand have led to significant stock price movements among companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, prompting many to issue announcements regarding abnormal trading fluctuations [1] Group 1: Performance Forecasts - As of October 12, 2025, five companies in the non-ferrous metals sector have disclosed their performance forecasts for the first three quarters of 2025, with four companies expecting a net profit increase of over 100% year-on-year [1] - Northern Rare Earth anticipates a net profit of 1.51 billion to 1.57 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 272.54% to 287.34% [1] - Yuyuan New Materials expects a net profit of 230 million to 260 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 101% to 127% [2] Group 2: Stock Trading Anomalies - Yunnan Copper reported a cumulative stock price increase of 20% over three consecutive trading days, indicating abnormal trading activity [3] - Tongling Nonferrous Metals also noted a similar cumulative price deviation of 20% over three trading days, confirming that there were no undisclosed significant matters affecting stock prices [4] - Baiyin Nonferrous Metals disclosed a cumulative price increase of over 20% over three trading days, with no major changes in its internal operating environment [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - CITIC Securities expressed optimism regarding investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting the recent surge in gold and silver prices driven by expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing global central bank gold purchases [4] - The report also noted a significant increase in copper prices due to supply shortages and the logic of a computing revolution [4] Group 4: Price Trends and Company Strategies - China Tungsten High New Materials indicated that tungsten prices are influenced by supply and demand dynamics, with domestic supply shrinking and demand rising, suggesting that tungsten prices will remain high [5] - Northern Rare Earth mentioned that it has actively adjusted its strategies to improve operational performance in response to rising prices of major rare earth products [5]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Zhongfu Industrial has completed a share reduction plan, with a total of 39,999,924 shares reduced, representing 1% of the company's total share capital [1] - As of October 10, 2025, after the completion of the reduction plan, Yicheng Venture Capital holds 160,471,611 shares, which is 4.0039% of Zhongfu Industrial's total share capital [1] - For the first half of 2025, Zhongfu Industrial's revenue composition is as follows: non-ferrous industry accounts for 94.76%, electricity for 9.96%, coal for 2.71%, and other businesses for 0.47%, with a negative offset of 7.9% [1] Group 2 - The market capitalization of Zhongfu Industrial is reported to be 21.5 billion yuan [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights that international gold prices have surpassed the $4000 per ounce mark, impacting various sectors positively, particularly the metals sector [2][4][6] - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed results with the Hang Seng Index declining by 0.29%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.66%, indicating volatility in the market [2][3] - The report notes significant inflows from northbound funds, with a net inflow of HKD 30.43 billion into Hong Kong stocks, suggesting strong investor interest [2][3] Group 2 - The report provides insights into the software and internet industry, indicating a robust domestic tourism performance during the National Day holiday, with total tourism revenue reaching CNY 809 billion and a year-on-year increase of 15% in revenue per capita [7][8] - The report anticipates a stable growth rate of 10% for the overall tourism market in 2025, with expectations of a rebound in average spending per person in the second half of the year [7][10] - Online travel agencies (OTAs) like Ctrip and Qunar have shown strong performance, with significant increases in outbound travel orders and hotel bookings, reflecting a positive trend in consumer behavior [9][10]