与此同时，最高法院上周裁定推翻了依据《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）征收的关税——该部分约 占2025年实际关税税率10个百分点涨幅中的7个百分点。对此，特朗普随后宣布依据第122条款推出"全 球关税"方案，但高盛认为该举措对实际关税税率的影响相对有限。上述政策调整进一步支撑了高盛对 通胀前景的温和预判，也令金融市场对2026年通胀的隐含预期小幅下调。 高盛最新报告指出，美国核心商品通胀正迎来潜在拐点，随着关税成本向消费端的传导效应日趋消退， 通胀整体下行趋势有望在2026年内延续至目标水平附近。 据追风交易台消息，据高盛2月25日发布的月度通胀监测报告，该行估计关税成本对消费者价格的传导 比例在实施十个月后已达62%，并预计核心商品通胀将从2025年12月的同比1.97%大幅放缓至2026年12 月的0.08%。这一趋势表明，关税对通胀的一次性抬升效应正接近尾声。 在此基础上，高盛预测核心PCE通胀将于2026年12月降至2.2%，并在2027年12月进一步回落至2.0%，基 本与美联储目标水平接轨。 当前通胀走势：高位趋缓，但仍偏离目标 从最新数据来看，通胀压力有所缓和，但距美联储2%目标仍存距离。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan indicates that rising food prices may lead to a second-round effect on core CPI inflation by altering household sentiment and inflation expectations [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is concerned about the impact of food price increases on consumer behavior and overall inflation [1] - There is a potential for food price inflation to influence broader economic indicators, particularly core CPI [1] - The central bank is monitoring these developments closely as they could affect monetary policy decisions in the future [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the inflation trends in May, highlighting a slight decrease in CPI and a more significant drop in PPI, with implications for future economic conditions and policy responses [1][10]. Group 1: CPI Inflation - May CPI inflation was reported at -0.1% year-on-year, matching the previous value and exceeding market expectations of -0.2% [1][2]. - Energy prices have significantly dragged down CPI inflation, while core CPI showed slight upward support [2][6]. - Food prices experienced a mild decline, with a 0.2% drop month-on-month, which is less than the average decline of 1.4% over the past five years [5]. - Core CPI inflation rose slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 0.6% year-on-year, although month-on-month momentum has weakened [6][7]. - Service prices remained resilient, with travel prices increasing by 0.8% month-on-month, surpassing the five-year average of 0.2% [6]. Group 2: PPI Inflation - May PPI inflation was reported at -3.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and -0.4% month-on-month, which is weaker than the historical average since 2017 [10][12]. - The decline in PPI is attributed to weak oil prices affecting the entire industrial chain and a slowdown in the construction sector due to adverse weather conditions [10][12]. - Despite the overall decline, there are signs of recovery in prices related to exports and new growth sectors, with textile prices narrowing their decline and some electronic prices turning positive [12][15]. Group 3: Forward Outlook - Looking ahead, energy prices are expected to remain weak, with Brent crude oil projected to fluctuate between $60 and $70 [9]. - The overall pace of CPI recovery is anticipated to be slow, influenced by policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption [16]. - For the second quarter, CPI inflation is expected to stabilize around 0%, while PPI inflation may drop to approximately -3.0% [16].