核心PCE通胀

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今年首次行动!美联储如期降息25基点,强调就业下行风险
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-09-17 22:19
美东时间9月17日周三,美联储在货币政策委员会FOMC会后公布,联邦基金利率的目标区间从4.25%至4.5%降至4.00%至4.25%,降幅25个基点。这是美联 储今年开年以来九个月内首次决定降息。联储自去年9月到12月连续三次会议降息,本周再度行动后,本轮宽松周期的合计降息降幅达125个基点。 本次会议的降息决定完全在投资者意料之中。到本周二收盘,芝商所(CME)的工具显示,期货市场预计联储本周降息25个基点的概率约为96%,10月下次 会议继续降息的概率约为80%,12月进一步降息的概率接近74%。美国财长贝森特周二称,市场正在消化从现在到年底合计降息75个基点的预期。 在会后公布的会议声明中,美联储主要调整了就业方面的表述,特别提到就业下行的风险增加。更新的利率预期体现出,多数联储决策者预计的今年降息次 数由6月公布的两次提高到三次,即在本周降息后,还会由两次25个基点的降息。 本次降息决议只有一名FOMC投票委员——特朗普"钦点"的理事米兰反对,至少目前看来,联储内部的降息分歧还没有出现两票反对的上次会议时大。 有"新美联储通讯社"之称的资深联储报道记者Nick Timiraos在联储会后发文称,对就 ...
美联储发布最新经济预测:GDP增长预期1.6% 利率中位数维持3.6%
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-17 18:31
Economic Growth Expectations - The FOMC members project a median GDP growth of 1.6% for 2025, 1.4% for 2026, and 1.8% for both 2027 and 2028, with a long-term median growth rate of 1.8% [2] - The central tendency for 2025 GDP growth is between 1.4% and 1.7%, with a range of 1.3% to 2.0% [2] Unemployment Rate Projections - The median unemployment rate is forecasted to be 4.5% for both 2025 and 2026, 4.3% for 2027, and 4.2% for 2028, with a long-term median of 4.0% [3] - The central tendency for 2025 unemployment rate is between 4.4% and 4.5%, with a range of 4.2% to 4.6% [3] Inflation Trends - The median forecast for the PCE price index year-on-year growth is 3.0% for 2025, 2.6% for 2026, 2.1% for 2027, and 2.0% for 2028, with a long-term median of 2.0% [4] - The core PCE inflation forecast (excluding food and energy) is 3.1% for 2025, 2.6% for 2026, 2.1% for 2027, and 2.0% for 2028 [4] Interest Rate Path - The median forecast for the federal funds rate is 3.6% at the end of 2025, 3.4% for 2026, and 3.1% for both 2027 and 2028, with a long-term median of 3.0% [5] - The central tendency for the 2025 interest rate is between 3.6% and 4.1%, with a range of 2.9% to 4.4% [5] Comparison with Previous Forecasts - Compared to the June 2025 forecast, the median predictions for GDP growth, unemployment rate, PCE inflation, core PCE inflation, and federal funds rate remain unchanged, indicating stable assessments by FOMC members [6] Uncertainty and Risk Assessment - FOMC members assess that the uncertainty regarding GDP growth and inflation for 2025 is "similar to or higher than" the past 20 years [7] - Some members view the risks for GDP growth and unemployment as "roughly balanced," while inflation risks are seen as "roughly balanced" or "tilted upward" [7]
“美联储传声筒”Nick Timiraos:(6月)核心PCE通胀看起来开始恶化
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-31 13:06
Group 1 - The core PCE inflation appears to be worsening, not better than when the Federal Reserve started cutting rates last year, and in some indicators, it is even worse [1] - The annualized rate of the core PCE price index for June is 2.6%, compared to 2.3% in the same month last year [1] - The six-month annualized rate stands at 3.2%, slightly down from 3.3% in the same period last year [1]
“美联储传声筒”Nick Timiraos:(6月)核心PCE通胀看起来开始恶化,并不比美联储去年开始降息时更好,从某些指标来看甚至更糟。6月份核心PCE物价指数3个月年化率为2.6%(去年同期为2.3%)。按6个月年化计算,这一数字为3.2%(去年同期为3.3%)。
news flash· 2025-07-31 12:58
Core Insights - The core PCE inflation appears to be worsening, not better than when the Federal Reserve began lowering interest rates last year [1] - The three-month annualized rate of the core PCE price index in June was 2.6%, compared to 2.3% in the same month last year [1] - The six-month annualized rate for the core PCE was 3.2%, slightly down from 3.3% in the same period last year [1]
为何关税对美国价格没影响?高盛给出三个原因,且维持“虽迟但到”
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-10 03:57
Core Insights - The impact of tariffs on U.S. consumer prices has been unexpectedly muted, with significant effects yet to materialize [1][2] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the core PCE inflation will rise to 3.3% by the end of 2025, with tariffs contributing approximately 1% to this increase [1][7] Delayed Transmission of Tariff Costs - The effective tariff rate is expected to increase by about 9 percentage points due to announced tariffs, with a total expected increase of around 14 percentage points [2] - As of May, the effective tariff rate had only risen by 7.2 percentage points, indicating a lag in the expected impact [2] - Three main factors contribute to this delay: the timing of tariff implementation, the ability for importers to defer tariff payments, and companies stockpiling goods ahead of tariff increases [2][5] Foreign Exporters Bearing Costs - Foreign exporters are absorbing approximately 20% of the tariff costs by lowering export prices, a significant increase from nearly zero during the 2018-2019 trade conflict [3][4] Consumer Price Transmission - The transmission of tariff costs to consumers is slow, with only 0.3% of the expected price increase realized in the first month after tariff implementation [5] - The transmission rate increases over time, reaching 40% by the third month, compared to a faster transmission during the previous trade conflict [5][6] Inflation Forecasts - Despite the delayed transmission of tariff costs, Goldman Sachs maintains its inflation forecast, estimating that announced tariffs have raised core PCE prices by about 6 basis points since January [7] - The firm anticipates that all tariff impacts will push core PCE up by approximately 1 percentage point by December, leading to an annual inflation rate of 3.3% [7]
美联储主席鲍威尔:净出口的异常波动使GDP衡量变得更加复杂。
news flash· 2025-06-18 18:35
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that unusual fluctuations in net exports complicate GDP measurements [1] Group 2 - Unemployment rate projections for the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 4.5%, 4.5%, and 4.4% respectively, with slight increases from previous estimates [4] - Core PCE inflation expectations for the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.1%, 2.4%, and 2.1% respectively, indicating upward revisions [4] - Federal funds rate projections for the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.9%, 3.6%, and 3.4% respectively, with increases noted for 2026 and 2027 [4]
美联储经济预期中的图表显示,FOMC与会者中多数认为PCE通胀、核心PCE通胀面临的不确定性更高,风险倾向上行。
news flash· 2025-06-18 18:07
Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's economic outlook indicates that most FOMC participants perceive higher uncertainty regarding PCE inflation and core PCE inflation, with an upward risk bias [1]
美国5月PMI意外回暖,细节之处暴露滞胀隐忧!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-05-22 14:29
Core Insights - The temporary trade agreement between the US and China has led to a rebound in US business activity in May, but the comprehensive tariffs imposed by President Trump have increased prices for businesses and consumers [1] - Despite the improvement in business sentiment, concerns about the negative impacts of Trump's policies persist, keeping sentiment slightly below the average level for 2024 [3] Economic Indicators - The S&P Global composite PMI output index rose from 50.6 in April to 52.1 in May, indicating private sector expansion [1] - The manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rebounded from 50.2 to 52.3, surpassing expectations of 50.1, while the services PMI increased from 50.8 to 52.3, contrary to predictions of stability [1] - New orders received by businesses increased from 51.7 in April to 52.4, primarily driven by manufacturing [3] Inflation and Costs - The prices paid by businesses for inputs surged from 58.5 in April to 63.4, the highest level since November 2022, indicating that companies are passing higher costs onto consumers [3] - The prices charged for goods and services rose from 54.0 to 59.3, marking the highest level since August 2022, suggesting a sharp increase in consumer price inflation [3] - Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation is expected to rise to approximately 3.5%, while GDP growth is projected to slow to below 1% this year [2] Employment and Labor Market - The employment index fell from 50.2 to 49.5, reflecting concerns about future demand, rising costs, and labor shortages [3] - Inventory investments have surged to an 18-year high due to fears of supply shortages and price increases related to tariffs [2]