【美国通胀拐点已至！高盛：关税成本转嫁接近尾声，核心PCE通胀年底将回到目标水平！】高盛认 为，关税对商品价格的传导效应已基本释放完毕，预计2026年底，关税对核心PCE通胀增量贡献将仅剩 0.1个百分点。配合住房通胀放缓及劳动力市场降温，核心PCE有望在2026年底降至2.2%，并于2027年 回归美联储2%的目标，为政策转向打开空间。 ...

与此同时，最高法院上周裁定推翻了依据《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）征收的关税——该部分约 占2025年实际关税税率10个百分点涨幅中的7个百分点。对此，特朗普随后宣布依据第122条款推出"全 球关税"方案，但高盛认为该举措对实际关税税率的影响相对有限。上述政策调整进一步支撑了高盛对 通胀前景的温和预判，也令金融市场对2026年通胀的隐含预期小幅下调。 高盛最新报告指出，美国核心商品通胀正迎来潜在拐点，随着关税成本向消费端的传导效应日趋消退， 通胀整体下行趋势有望在2026年内延续至目标水平附近。 据追风交易台消息，据高盛2月25日发布的月度通胀监测报告，该行估计关税成本对消费者价格的传导 比例在实施十个月后已达62%，并预计核心商品通胀将从2025年12月的同比1.97%大幅放缓至2026年12 月的0.08%。这一趋势表明，关税对通胀的一次性抬升效应正接近尾声。 在此基础上，高盛预测核心PCE通胀将于2026年12月降至2.2%，并在2027年12月进一步回落至2.0%，基 本与美联储目标水平接轨。 当前通胀走势：高位趋缓，但仍偏离目标 从最新数据来看，通胀压力有所缓和，但距美联储2%目标仍存距离。 ...

周五公布的另一份报告显示，经通胀调整后的第四季度GDP年化增长率为1.4%，低于上一季度的 4.4%。美国经济分析局(BEA)的数据显示，去年整体经济增长率为2.2%。疲软的季度GDP正值美国政府 在三个月期间近一半时间处于停摆状态。美国经济分析局表示，政府停摆期间联邦服务的减少使GDP下 降了约1个百分点，但其全部影响尚无法估算。 智通财经APP获悉，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格成分后，美国12月核心PCE物价指数年率录得3%， 为2025年2月以来新高，市场预期为2.9%，前值为2.8%。美国12月核心PCE物价指数月率录得0.4%，为 2025年2月以来新高，市场预期为0.3%。而美国12月整体PCE物价指数年率 2.9%，预期2.80%，前值 2.80%。 美国12月核心PCE通胀涨幅超出预期，且种种迹象表明1月通胀将进一步加速，这将强化市场对美联储6 月前不会降息的预期。核心PCE是美联储最青睐的重要指标之一。 尽管美国劳工统计局上周发布的消费者价格指数报告显示，1月份价格温和上涨，但服务业通胀仍呈现 一定的滞后性。经济学家还注意到，1月份法律服务价格出现激增。 巴克莱银行经济学家普贾·斯里拉姆表示 ...

2026 年 01 月 23 日 锌：具备向上弹性 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 24400 | 0.21% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 3175 | 0.00% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 131273 | -14813 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 10031 | -1448 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 118558 | -3135 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 228807 | -649 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | 55 | 0 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -40.12 | 3.45 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the gold market is influenced by dovish monetary policy expectations from the Federal Reserve, with recent economic data supporting the likelihood of an interest rate cut [1][2] - The latest U.S. economic data shows that core PCE inflation remains stable, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease from 2.9% to 2.8%, reinforcing market expectations for a rate cut [2] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for December rose to 53.3, exceeding expectations, which may impact consumer behavior and spending [2] Group 2 - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the slow progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks, continue to support safe-haven assets like gold, as uncertainty remains high [3] - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, reaching a high of 4259 before closing at 4198, with expectations for potential rebounds if support levels hold [4] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at 4245-4260, while support levels are noted at 4165-4175, indicating potential trading strategies for investors [4]

格隆汇12月5日｜美联储青睐的通胀指标在9月份保持在3%以下，并且显示物价月度涨幅温和，这可能 不会阻碍美联储在下周会议上考虑降息。美国商务部周五表示，9月PCE物价指数月率录得0.3%，这使 得年率从8月份的2.7%小幅上升至2.8%。剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后的核心PCE年率从8月份的 2.9%降至2.8%。物价月度涨幅与华尔街的预测基本一致。在正常情况下，美联储在召开今年最后一次 会议之前，会全面了解10月份的通胀和11月份的就业情况。但政府停摆延迟了这些数据的发布，使美联 储只能根据一套过时的官方经济指标来权衡下一步行动。在下周的会议上，美联储官员将讨论如何在通 胀高企与劳动力市场降温之间取得平衡，这一充满挑战的动态对美联储的两大目标均构成威胁。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Group 1 - The core PCE inflation based on market indicators is close to 2% according to Federal Reserve Governor Milan [1]

Summary of FOMC October Meeting Recap Industry Overview - The document discusses the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and its monetary policy decisions, particularly focusing on interest rates and economic indicators. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Interest Rate Adjustment**: The FOMC lowered the target range for the funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75-4% during the October meeting [2][3][4] 2. **Balance Sheet Management**: The FOMC announced that balance sheet runoff would conclude at the start of December, with principal payments of mortgage-backed securities being reinvested solely into Treasury bills [3][4] 3. **Inflation Insights**: Chair Powell indicated that inflation, excluding tariff effects, is nearing the 2% target, with tariff impacts estimated to have raised prices by 0.5-0.6% [4][12] 4. **Labor Market Trends**: Alternative data suggests a gradual cooling in the labor market, which aligns with the analysis presented [4][10] 5. **Hawkish Tone**: Powell's press conference was more hawkish than anticipated, avoiding references to the September dot plot that suggested a third cut in December [5][8] 6. **Diverse Opinions within FOMC**: Powell acknowledged differing views among FOMC members regarding the December cut, with some advocating for a wait-and-see approach [6][7] 7. **Data Collection Challenges**: The government shutdown has hindered the release of official economic data, complicating the FOMC's decision-making process [11] 8. **Future Policy Stance**: Powell views the current monetary policy as modestly restrictive, which may necessitate another cut unless the labor market stabilizes by December [12] Additional Important Insights - **Market Reactions**: The bond market perceived Powell's statements as a hawkish surprise, indicating potential volatility in response to future policy changes [5][8] - **Labor Market Weakness**: There is a belief that genuine labor market weakness exists, which could lead to negative payroll reports and further complicate the economic outlook [10][11] - **Risk Management Cuts**: There is substantial opposition within the FOMC regarding risk management cuts, suggesting a complex internal dynamic influencing policy decisions [8][9] This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the FOMC's October meeting, highlighting the implications for monetary policy and economic conditions.

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated its first interest rate cut of the year, reducing the target range from 4.25%-4.5% to 4.00%-4.25%, marking a total reduction of 125 basis points in the current easing cycle [1][9] Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates was widely anticipated, with a 96% probability of a 25 basis point cut reflected in futures markets prior to the announcement [1] - The Fed's updated projections indicate an increase in the expected number of rate cuts for the year from two to three, suggesting two additional 25 basis point cuts after the current one [1][12] Employment and Economic Outlook - Concerns regarding a slowdown in the job market have overshadowed inflation worries, prompting the Fed to adjust its focus on employment risks [2][3] - The Fed's statement highlighted that job growth has slowed and the unemployment rate has slightly increased, indicating heightened risks to employment [3] Voting Dynamics - In the recent FOMC meeting, 11 out of 12 voting members supported the 25 basis point cut, with only one member, newly appointed Stephen Miran, opposing it in favor of a 50 basis point cut [5][6] - The voting outcome did not reflect a significant division within the committee compared to previous meetings [7] Asset Reduction Strategy - The Fed reiterated its commitment to reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, maintaining a slower pace of balance sheet reduction since April [4] Economic Projections - The Fed has revised its GDP growth forecasts upward for the next three years while adjusting unemployment and inflation expectations [14][15] - The updated median projections indicate a GDP growth rate of 1.6% for 2025, with inflation expected to return to the Fed's long-term target of 2% by 2028 [15]

Economic Growth Expectations - The FOMC members project a median GDP growth of 1.6% for 2025, 1.4% for 2026, and 1.8% for both 2027 and 2028, with a long-term median growth rate of 1.8% [2] - The central tendency for 2025 GDP growth is between 1.4% and 1.7%, with a range of 1.3% to 2.0% [2] Unemployment Rate Projections - The median unemployment rate is forecasted to be 4.5% for both 2025 and 2026, 4.3% for 2027, and 4.2% for 2028, with a long-term median of 4.0% [3] - The central tendency for 2025 unemployment rate is between 4.4% and 4.5%, with a range of 4.2% to 4.6% [3] Inflation Trends - The median forecast for the PCE price index year-on-year growth is 3.0% for 2025, 2.6% for 2026, 2.1% for 2027, and 2.0% for 2028, with a long-term median of 2.0% [4] - The core PCE inflation forecast (excluding food and energy) is 3.1% for 2025, 2.6% for 2026, 2.1% for 2027, and 2.0% for 2028 [4] Interest Rate Path - The median forecast for the federal funds rate is 3.6% at the end of 2025, 3.4% for 2026, and 3.1% for both 2027 and 2028, with a long-term median of 3.0% [5] - The central tendency for the 2025 interest rate is between 3.6% and 4.1%, with a range of 2.9% to 4.4% [5] Comparison with Previous Forecasts - Compared to the June 2025 forecast, the median predictions for GDP growth, unemployment rate, PCE inflation, core PCE inflation, and federal funds rate remain unchanged, indicating stable assessments by FOMC members [6] Uncertainty and Risk Assessment - FOMC members assess that the uncertainty regarding GDP growth and inflation for 2025 is "similar to or higher than" the past 20 years [7] - Some members view the risks for GDP growth and unemployment as "roughly balanced," while inflation risks are seen as "roughly balanced" or "tilted upward" [7]