美联储理事米兰：基于市场的核心PCE通胀相当接近2%。 ...

Summary of FOMC October Meeting Recap Industry Overview - The document discusses the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and its monetary policy decisions, particularly focusing on interest rates and economic indicators. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Interest Rate Adjustment**: The FOMC lowered the target range for the funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75-4% during the October meeting [2][3][4] 2. **Balance Sheet Management**: The FOMC announced that balance sheet runoff would conclude at the start of December, with principal payments of mortgage-backed securities being reinvested solely into Treasury bills [3][4] 3. **Inflation Insights**: Chair Powell indicated that inflation, excluding tariff effects, is nearing the 2% target, with tariff impacts estimated to have raised prices by 0.5-0.6% [4][12] 4. **Labor Market Trends**: Alternative data suggests a gradual cooling in the labor market, which aligns with the analysis presented [4][10] 5. **Hawkish Tone**: Powell's press conference was more hawkish than anticipated, avoiding references to the September dot plot that suggested a third cut in December [5][8] 6. **Diverse Opinions within FOMC**: Powell acknowledged differing views among FOMC members regarding the December cut, with some advocating for a wait-and-see approach [6][7] 7. **Data Collection Challenges**: The government shutdown has hindered the release of official economic data, complicating the FOMC's decision-making process [11] 8. **Future Policy Stance**: Powell views the current monetary policy as modestly restrictive, which may necessitate another cut unless the labor market stabilizes by December [12] Additional Important Insights - **Market Reactions**: The bond market perceived Powell's statements as a hawkish surprise, indicating potential volatility in response to future policy changes [5][8] - **Labor Market Weakness**: There is a belief that genuine labor market weakness exists, which could lead to negative payroll reports and further complicate the economic outlook [10][11] - **Risk Management Cuts**: There is substantial opposition within the FOMC regarding risk management cuts, suggesting a complex internal dynamic influencing policy decisions [8][9] This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the FOMC's October meeting, highlighting the implications for monetary policy and economic conditions.

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated its first interest rate cut of the year, reducing the target range from 4.25%-4.5% to 4.00%-4.25%, marking a total reduction of 125 basis points in the current easing cycle [1][9] Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates was widely anticipated, with a 96% probability of a 25 basis point cut reflected in futures markets prior to the announcement [1] - The Fed's updated projections indicate an increase in the expected number of rate cuts for the year from two to three, suggesting two additional 25 basis point cuts after the current one [1][12] Employment and Economic Outlook - Concerns regarding a slowdown in the job market have overshadowed inflation worries, prompting the Fed to adjust its focus on employment risks [2][3] - The Fed's statement highlighted that job growth has slowed and the unemployment rate has slightly increased, indicating heightened risks to employment [3] Voting Dynamics - In the recent FOMC meeting, 11 out of 12 voting members supported the 25 basis point cut, with only one member, newly appointed Stephen Miran, opposing it in favor of a 50 basis point cut [5][6] - The voting outcome did not reflect a significant division within the committee compared to previous meetings [7] Asset Reduction Strategy - The Fed reiterated its commitment to reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, maintaining a slower pace of balance sheet reduction since April [4] Economic Projections - The Fed has revised its GDP growth forecasts upward for the next three years while adjusting unemployment and inflation expectations [14][15] - The updated median projections indicate a GDP growth rate of 1.6% for 2025, with inflation expected to return to the Fed's long-term target of 2% by 2028 [15]

Economic Growth Expectations - The FOMC members project a median GDP growth of 1.6% for 2025, 1.4% for 2026, and 1.8% for both 2027 and 2028, with a long-term median growth rate of 1.8% [2] - The central tendency for 2025 GDP growth is between 1.4% and 1.7%, with a range of 1.3% to 2.0% [2] Unemployment Rate Projections - The median unemployment rate is forecasted to be 4.5% for both 2025 and 2026, 4.3% for 2027, and 4.2% for 2028, with a long-term median of 4.0% [3] - The central tendency for 2025 unemployment rate is between 4.4% and 4.5%, with a range of 4.2% to 4.6% [3] Inflation Trends - The median forecast for the PCE price index year-on-year growth is 3.0% for 2025, 2.6% for 2026, 2.1% for 2027, and 2.0% for 2028, with a long-term median of 2.0% [4] - The core PCE inflation forecast (excluding food and energy) is 3.1% for 2025, 2.6% for 2026, 2.1% for 2027, and 2.0% for 2028 [4] Interest Rate Path - The median forecast for the federal funds rate is 3.6% at the end of 2025, 3.4% for 2026, and 3.1% for both 2027 and 2028, with a long-term median of 3.0% [5] - The central tendency for the 2025 interest rate is between 3.6% and 4.1%, with a range of 2.9% to 4.4% [5] Comparison with Previous Forecasts - Compared to the June 2025 forecast, the median predictions for GDP growth, unemployment rate, PCE inflation, core PCE inflation, and federal funds rate remain unchanged, indicating stable assessments by FOMC members [6] Uncertainty and Risk Assessment - FOMC members assess that the uncertainty regarding GDP growth and inflation for 2025 is "similar to or higher than" the past 20 years [7] - Some members view the risks for GDP growth and unemployment as "roughly balanced," while inflation risks are seen as "roughly balanced" or "tilted upward" [7]

Group 1 - The core PCE inflation appears to be worsening, not better than when the Federal Reserve started cutting rates last year, and in some indicators, it is even worse [1] - The annualized rate of the core PCE price index for June is 2.6%, compared to 2.3% in the same month last year [1] - The six-month annualized rate stands at 3.2%, slightly down from 3.3% in the same period last year [1]

Core Insights - The core PCE inflation appears to be worsening, not better than when the Federal Reserve began lowering interest rates last year [1] - The three-month annualized rate of the core PCE price index in June was 2.6%, compared to 2.3% in the same month last year [1] - The six-month annualized rate for the core PCE was 3.2%, slightly down from 3.3% in the same period last year [1]

Core Insights - The impact of tariffs on U.S. consumer prices has been unexpectedly muted, with significant effects yet to materialize [1][2] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the core PCE inflation will rise to 3.3% by the end of 2025, with tariffs contributing approximately 1% to this increase [1][7] Delayed Transmission of Tariff Costs - The effective tariff rate is expected to increase by about 9 percentage points due to announced tariffs, with a total expected increase of around 14 percentage points [2] - As of May, the effective tariff rate had only risen by 7.2 percentage points, indicating a lag in the expected impact [2] - Three main factors contribute to this delay: the timing of tariff implementation, the ability for importers to defer tariff payments, and companies stockpiling goods ahead of tariff increases [2][5] Foreign Exporters Bearing Costs - Foreign exporters are absorbing approximately 20% of the tariff costs by lowering export prices, a significant increase from nearly zero during the 2018-2019 trade conflict [3][4] Consumer Price Transmission - The transmission of tariff costs to consumers is slow, with only 0.3% of the expected price increase realized in the first month after tariff implementation [5] - The transmission rate increases over time, reaching 40% by the third month, compared to a faster transmission during the previous trade conflict [5][6] Inflation Forecasts - Despite the delayed transmission of tariff costs, Goldman Sachs maintains its inflation forecast, estimating that announced tariffs have raised core PCE prices by about 6 basis points since January [7] - The firm anticipates that all tariff impacts will push core PCE up by approximately 1 percentage point by December, leading to an annual inflation rate of 3.3% [7]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that unusual fluctuations in net exports complicate GDP measurements [1] Group 2 - Unemployment rate projections for the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 4.5%, 4.5%, and 4.4% respectively, with slight increases from previous estimates [4] - Core PCE inflation expectations for the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.1%, 2.4%, and 2.1% respectively, indicating upward revisions [4] - Federal funds rate projections for the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.9%, 3.6%, and 3.4% respectively, with increases noted for 2026 and 2027 [4]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's economic outlook indicates that most FOMC participants perceive higher uncertainty regarding PCE inflation and core PCE inflation, with an upward risk bias [1]

Core Insights - The temporary trade agreement between the US and China has led to a rebound in US business activity in May, but the comprehensive tariffs imposed by President Trump have increased prices for businesses and consumers [1] - Despite the improvement in business sentiment, concerns about the negative impacts of Trump's policies persist, keeping sentiment slightly below the average level for 2024 [3] Economic Indicators - The S&P Global composite PMI output index rose from 50.6 in April to 52.1 in May, indicating private sector expansion [1] - The manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rebounded from 50.2 to 52.3, surpassing expectations of 50.1, while the services PMI increased from 50.8 to 52.3, contrary to predictions of stability [1] - New orders received by businesses increased from 51.7 in April to 52.4, primarily driven by manufacturing [3] Inflation and Costs - The prices paid by businesses for inputs surged from 58.5 in April to 63.4, the highest level since November 2022, indicating that companies are passing higher costs onto consumers [3] - The prices charged for goods and services rose from 54.0 to 59.3, marking the highest level since August 2022, suggesting a sharp increase in consumer price inflation [3] - Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation is expected to rise to approximately 3.5%, while GDP growth is projected to slow to below 1% this year [2] Employment and Labor Market - The employment index fell from 50.2 to 49.5, reflecting concerns about future demand, rising costs, and labor shortages [3] - Inventory investments have surged to an 18-year high due to fears of supply shortages and price increases related to tariffs [2]