Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Canola Oil**: This week, canola oil futures fluctuated at a high level. The closing price of the 05 contract was 9,877 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from last week. AAFC kept the forecast of Canada's rapeseed ending stocks for the 2025/26 season unchanged at 2.76 million tons and lowered the forecast for the 2026/27 season by 200,000 tons to 1.46 million tons. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East remain uncertain, and international oil prices are oscillating at a high level, driving up the expected demand for vegetable oil in biodiesel. High-frequency data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports increased significantly in the first 25 days of March, and the end-of-month inventory is expected to decline further. The market anticipates that Indonesia may tighten palm oil exports, which continues to support palm oil prices. In the domestic market, the spot trading of edible oils is sluggish, and high prices are suppressing demand. The future imports of Canadian rapeseed are expected to increase significantly, adding pressure on supply in the far - term. Recently, the market has been trading on the drive of biodiesel demand. The canola oil futures price has generally maintained a wide - range high - level oscillation, with increased short - term volatility [8]. - **Canola Meal**: This week, canola meal futures declined. The closing price of the 05 contract was 2,315 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan/ton from last week. As the South American soybean harvest progresses, the supply pressure is gradually increasing, and Brazilian soybeans have a competitive edge, dampening the market's expectations for US soybean exports. Tensions between the US and Iran have eased slightly, but the uncertainty of the geopolitical conflict still exists, and the macro - risk premium still supports the US soybean market. In terms of canola meal itself, China has lifted the anti - discriminatory tariff on Canadian canola meal, and the tariff on Canadian rapeseed has also dropped significantly. Canadian rapeseed and canola meal will flow back to the domestic market, and the long - term supply pressure will continue to restrict the market. Currently, canola meal is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The market's concerns about the near - term soybean supply have been alleviated. The canola meal price has oscillated and declined from a high level recently, with large short - term fluctuations, and short - term trading is recommended [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Canola Oil**: The 05 contract closed at 9,877 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from last week. AAFC adjusted the inventory forecast, and geopolitical and market factors affect prices. The market is trading on biodiesel demand, and the price is in a high - level wide - range oscillation [8]. - **Canola Meal**: The 05 contract closed at 2,315 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan/ton from last week. Supply and geopolitical factors impact the market, and it is in a weak supply - demand situation. The price has oscillated and declined from a high level, with large short - term fluctuations [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: Canola oil futures oscillated and closed higher, with a total open interest of 213,002 contracts, down 24,431 contracts from last week. Canola meal futures declined significantly, with a total open interest of 527,901 contracts, down 50,477 contracts from last week [15]. - **Top 20 Net Positions**: The net position of the top 20 in canola oil futures was - 17,025, and the net short position decreased compared to last week. The net position of the top 20 in canola meal futures was - 167,454, and the net short position increased compared to last week [21]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of canola oil were 765, and those of canola meal were 0 [27]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of canola oil in Jiangsu was 10,380 yuan/ton, slightly down from last week. The basis between the active canola oil contract and the Jiangsu spot price was + 503 yuan/ton. The canola meal price in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,570 yuan/ton, slightly down from last week. The basis between the Jiangsu spot price and the active canola meal contract was + 255 yuan/ton [33][39]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 5 - 9 spread of canola oil was + 97 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. The 5 - 9 spread of canola meal was - 88 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years [45]. - **Futures - Spot Ratio**: The ratio of the 05 contract of canola oil to canola meal was 4.267, and the average spot price ratio was 3.98 [48]. - **Price Spreads between Oils and Meals**: The 05 contract spread between canola oil and soybean oil was 1,189 yuan/ton, and the spread slightly narrowed this week. The 05 contract spread between canola oil and palm oil was 109 yuan/ton, and the spread slightly narrowed this week. The 05 contract spread between soybean meal and canola meal was 622 yuan/ton, and the spot spread between soybean meal and canola meal was 710 yuan/ton as of Thursday [57][63]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Rapeseed**: As of the end of the 12th week of 2026, the domestic imported rapeseed inventory was 176,000 tons, down 5,000 tons from last week. The estimated arrivals of rapeseed in April, May, and June 2026 are 225,000 tons, 200,000 tons, and 520,000 tons respectively. As of March 26, the spot crushing profit of imported rapeseed was + 55 yuan/ton. As of the 12th week of 2026, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 46,000 tons, up 15,500 tons from last week, and the operating rate was 11.76%. In February 2026, the total import volume of rapeseed was 69,617.89 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 79.10% and a month - on - month decrease of 51,231.78 tons [67][71][75][79]. - **Canola Oil**: As of the end of the 12th week of 2026, the domestic imported and crushed canola oil inventory was 295,800 tons, down 8,200 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.69%. In February 2026, the total import volume of canola oil was 200,000 tons, the lowest this year, a year - on - year decrease of 16.67% and a month - on - month decrease of 50,000 tons. As of December 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 5.254 million tons, and the monthly catering revenue was 573.8 billion yuan. As of the end of the 12th week of 2026, the contract volume of domestic imported and crushed canola oil was 156,800 tons, up 46,900 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 42.72% [83][87][91]. - **Canola Meal**: As of the end of the 12th week of 2026, the domestic imported and crushed canola meal inventory was 24,000 tons, up 4,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 20.0%. In February 2026, the total import volume of canola meal was 182,509.72 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.61% and a month - on - month decrease of 82,530.18 tons. As of December 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 3.0086 million tons [95][99][103]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis As of March 27, this week, the canola meal futures price declined from a high level. The implied volatility of the corresponding options was 23.93%, down 1.23% from last week's 25.16%, and it was at a medium level of the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [107].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, the cancellation of anti - discrimination tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal and the significant reduction of Canadian rapeseed tariffs will increase the supply pressure in the far - month. However, the market has already reacted in advance, and the overall impact is limited. Recently, rapeseed meal has fluctuated and declined from high levels, with large short - term fluctuations, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the sharp rise in international oil prices have promoted the expected demand for vegetable oil biodiesel. The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased significantly in the first 20 days of March, and the production has decreased slightly month - on - month, with the end - of - month inventory expected to decline. The domestic rapeseed oil futures price has generally maintained a high - level shock recently, with short - term fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9950 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2399 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan. The closing price of ICE rapeseed (active) is 726.1 Canadian dollars/ton, down 2.1 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed (active contract) is 5898 yuan/ton, up 79 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (5 - 9) is 119 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (5 - 9) is - 56 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 239709 lots, up 2276 lots; the main contract position of rapeseed meal is 570722 lots, down 7656 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil is - 22168 lots, down 4498 lots; the net long position of rapeseed meal is - 138882 lots, down 11735 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil is 805 sheets, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed meal is 0 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10420 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2640 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10401.25 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the import cost price of imported rapeseed is 5344.36 yuan/ton, down 29.43 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 470 yuan/ton, down 84 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is 241 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2]. - Substitute spot prices: The spot price of grade - 4 soybean oil in Nanjing is 8980 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the spot price of palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong is 9920 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3320 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - Price differences: The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1440 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 500 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 680 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production: The predicted annual production of rapeseed is 95.02 million tons, down 0.15 million tons; the annual predicted production of rapeseed is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import quantities: The total import quantity of rapeseed in the current month is 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons; the import quantity of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 20 million tons, down 5 million tons; the import quantity of rapeseed meal in the current month is 18.25 million tons, down 8.25 million tons [2]. - Pressing profit: The import rapeseed disk pressing profit is 26 yuan/ton, down 73 yuan [2]. - Inventory and开机率: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 17.5 million tons, down 2.5 million tons; the weekly开机率 of imported rapeseed is 6.13%, down 1.87% [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.5 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 2.4 million tons, up 0.4 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 27.65 million tons, up 2.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 5.75 million tons, down 2.3 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 0.5 million tons, up 0.5 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 30.2 million tons, up 1.9 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 0.52 million tons, up 0.7 million tons; the weekly提货量 of rapeseed meal is 1.04 million tons, up 0.5 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 3008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly social consumer goods retail total of catering revenue is 5738 billion yuan, down 319 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 24.11%, down 1.84%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 24.1%, down 1.85%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 19.82%, up 0.67%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 19.82%, up 0.67% [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 28.94%, up 0.25%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 21.1%, up 0.03%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 19.09%, down 0.6%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 19.3%, down 0.28% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On March 20 (Friday), the ICE rapeseed futures fluctuated and closed lower, but were still close to the key support level near the top of the long - term uptrend. The most actively traded May rapeseed futures contract closed down 1.80 Canadian dollars, with a settlement price of 726.50 Canadian dollars per ton, and the contract fell 1.8% this week [2]. - The continuous conflict in the Middle East has led to a continued strengthening of international oil prices, boosting the price of the US soybean market. However, as the South American soybean harvest progresses, the supply - side pressure is gradually increasing, and the competitive advantage of Brazilian soybeans is good, which has frustrated the market's export expectations for US soybeans, continuing to restrain the price of the US soybean market [2].