Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, rubber prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the RU2601 contract oscillating between 15,000 - 16,500 yuan/ton, the NR main contract between 11,800 - 13,200 yuan/ton, and the synthetic rubber BR main contract between 11,000 - 12,300 yuan/ton. In the long term, there is a higher probability of an upward breakthrough [1][31] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In the third quarter of this year, rubber prices generally showed a pattern of rising and then falling. In July, stimulated by the "anti - involution" policy in China, rubber prices rose. Tensions between Cambodia and Thailand also boosted market sentiment, but prices dropped after the conflict ended. In August, prices fluctuated within a narrow range due to a decline in tire enterprise operating rates. In September, prices declined again due to weak demand, high semi - steel tire inventory, and the approaching peak production season [3] 2. Industrial Structure Analysis 2.1 Upstream - Since September, raw material production in the Xishuangbanna area has gradually increased, but recent rainfall has made raw material release unstable. Typhoon "Hikaa" affected Hainan in late September, limiting rubber production, but the impact was limited. Some areas in Thailand's main production regions are still affected by rainfall, with slow and unstable raw material release. As the market declined, raw material purchase prices weakened, but the low inventory of rubber factories supported the bottom of the cup - rubber purchase price. Upstream processing plants have high production costs and lack processing profits [5] - The global rubber production capacity is still in an increasing cycle. Although the growth rate of newly opened - up areas has slowed down since 2020, the production capacity remains large. In 2020, production decreased due to the pandemic and weather factors, and the marginal output has been declining since 2021. ANRPC predicts that in July 2025, global natural rubber production will slightly decrease by 0.1% to 1.328 million tons, and consumption will drop by 4.1% to 1.246 million tons. For the first 7 months, cumulative production is expected to increase by 0.1% to 7.477 million tons, and cumulative consumption will decrease by 0.6% to 8.888 million tons. In 2025, global natural rubber production is expected to increase by 0.5% to 14.892 million tons, and consumption will increase by 1.3% to 15.565 million tons [7][8] - According to QinRex data, in the first 8 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 1.05 million tons, a 14.4% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In August alone, exports increased by 14.8% year - on - year but decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [9] 2.2 Midstream - In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 7.8% increase compared to the same period in 2024. From January to August, the total import volume was 5.373 million tons, a 19% increase [11] - As of the week of September 25, the total inventory of natural rubber futures warehouse receipts was 153,570 tons, remaining stable compared to the previous week. The total inventory of 20 - number rubber futures warehouse receipts was 44,756 tons, a slight increase of 100 tons [11] - As of the week of September 19, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 4.537 million tons, a 0.94% decrease. The inventory in the bonded area was 71,100 tons, a 6.32% decrease, while the general trade inventory was 382,600 tons, a 0.13% increase [11] 2.3 Downstream - As of the week of September 25, the operating rate of Shandong tire enterprises' all - steel tires was 65.04%, the same as the previous week and 8.7% higher than the same period last year. The operating rate of domestic tire enterprises' semi - steel tires was 74.52%, the same as the previous week but 4.27% lower than the same period last year. Tire enterprises are facing pressure on inventory due to slow export order delivery and weak domestic demand [15] - In August 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tube production was 102.954 million pieces, a 1.5% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the cumulative production was 795.467 million pieces, a 1.6% increase. From January to August, China's rubber tire exports reached 6.5 million tons, a 5.1% increase, and the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a 4.6% increase [17] - From January to August this year, China's automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, a 12.7% and 12.6% year - on - year increase. Among them, new energy vehicle production and sales were 9.625 million and 9.62 million vehicles respectively, a 37.3% and 36.7% year - on - year increase. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 45.5% of total vehicle sales. From January to August, China's automobile exports were 4.292 million vehicles, a 13.7% year - on - year increase, and new energy vehicle exports were 1.532 million vehicles, an 87.3% year - on - year increase [20] - In August 2025, heavy - truck wholesale sales reached about 87,000 vehicles, a 40% year - on - year increase and a 2% month - on - month increase. From January to August, heavy - truck sales reached about 711,000 vehicles, a 14% year - on - year increase, and annual sales are expected to exceed 1 million vehicles [25] - At the end of August 2025, the total inventory of all - steel tires in China was 10.19 million pieces (from 25 monitored sample enterprises), a slight decrease from the end of July. The total inventory of semi - steel tires was 18.53 million pieces, also a slight decrease from the end of July [26] 3. Future Outlook - Supply side: Currently, heavy rainfall in domestic and foreign production areas affects rubber tapping, leading to tight raw material output. The natural rubber inventory in Qingdao, the main domestic distribution hub, continues to decline. In the long term, the aging of rubber trees in Indonesia and Malaysia will lead to a decline in future production [31] - Demand side: The improvement in the downstream tire market is limited. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream factories has weakened, and the spot trading pace has slowed, reducing the support for natural rubber prices. The inventory of semi - steel tire products remains high, and the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises has been declining this year [31] - Technical side: In the short term, rubber prices will fluctuate within a range. In the long term, there is a higher probability of an upward breakthrough [31]

昨日，橡胶板块集体下跌。截至午盘收盘，沪胶期货2601合约下跌2.08%，报15570元/吨；20号胶期货 2511合约下跌2.34%，收于12300元/吨；BR橡胶期货2511合约下跌1.76%，报11415元/吨。 高宁表示，10月之前预计天然橡胶价格偏弱运行，需关注成本支撑与政策信号。利空因素包括主产区割 胶进度恢复正常、生产旺季供应宽松等。此外，新能源汽车购置税减免政策即将退出，或刺激四季度汽 车消费提前释放。10—12月需重点关注实际供应量和宏观政策力度，若东南亚产区天气较好，供应过剩 格局或延续；若宏观预期改善，天然橡胶价格可能迎来阶段性反弹。 "虽然国内轮胎企业已度过集中检修期，开工率有望回升，但终端消费表现一般，整体需求有限。"陈栋 分析称，海外市场受美国加征关税等因素影响，配套订单难以大幅增长。尽管国内汽车产销数据较好， 对需求形成一定支撑，但难以带动橡胶价格持续上行。 高宁也表示，在全球经济增速放缓的背景下，贸易风险依然存在，轮胎、汽车等商品需求前景存在不确 定性。市场对高价原料的接受意愿较低，叠加大宗商品价格整体走弱，橡胶作为风险资产较难获得资金 青睐。 展望后市，朱美侠认为，当前橡胶市 ...

化工日报 | 2025-09-16 青岛港口库存环比继续下降 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15995元/吨，较前一日变动+175元/吨；NR主力合约12710元/吨，较前一日变动+155 元/吨；BR主力合约11705元/吨，较前一日变动+90元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15150元/吨，较前一日变动+150元/吨。青岛保税区泰混15150元/吨，较前 一日变动+170元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1870美元/吨，较前一日变动+10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶 1790美元/吨，较前一日变动+15美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11900元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙 江传化BR9000市场价11550元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 天然橡胶： 现货及价差：2025-09-15，RU基差-845元/吨（-25），RU主力与混合胶价差845元/吨（+5），烟片胶进口 利润-3205元/吨（+214.90），NR基差577.00元/吨（-78.00）；全乳胶15150元/吨（+150），混合胶15150元/ 吨（+170），3L现货15300元/吨（+ ...

| HONGYUAN FUTURES | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 变量名称 2025-08-11 | | 2025-08-08 | 2025-08-01 | 较昨日变动 | | 近期走势 | | 收盘价 15755 | | 15550 | 14310 | 205.00 | | | | 成交量(手) 天然橡胶 | 415983 | 274007 | 329655 | | 141, 976.00 ~~ | | | 188179 期货活跃合约 持仓量(手) | | 182966 | 190262 | | 5.213.00 ~~~ | | | 注册仓单量 175440 | | 176280 | 177630 | -840.00 | | | | 天然橡胶基差 -1055 | | -1025 | 65 | -30.00 - | | | | 天津-上海标准胶SCRWF日度价差 -150 天然橡胶基差 | | -125 | -75 | -25.00 | | | | 山东-上海标准胶SCRWF日度价差 (现货与期货) -175 | | ...

期货热点追踪 橡胶期货在连涨后迎来回调，高库存 VS 需求向好，多空因素交织下，橡胶价格将何去何从？ 相关链接 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japanese rubber futures have experienced six consecutive declines due to increased supply and market concerns, with institutions predicting a continued weak price trend in the short term [1] Industry Summary - The rubber market is facing dual pressures from rising supply levels and market apprehensions, leading to a bearish outlook for prices [1] - Institutions are forecasting that the downward trend in rubber prices is likely to persist in the near future [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rubber futures market is experiencing a significant decline, influenced by the zero-tariff negotiations between China and Thailand, as well as changes in the trading regulations for standard warehouse receipts by the Shanghai Futures Exchange [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Rubber futures are leading the decline in the futures market today [1] - The price of rubber may continue to decrease due to the recent developments in trade negotiations and regulatory changes [1] Group 2: Regulatory Changes - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has modified the trading rules for standard warehouse receipts, which could impact rubber pricing dynamics [1] - The zero-tariff negotiations between China and Thailand are expected to affect the supply and demand balance in the rubber market [1]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for rubber shows a downward trend, with the main contract for 20 rubber futures opening at 12,870.00 CNY/ton and experiencing a decline of 3.66% [1] - As of May 27, the NR warehouse receipts were at 30,744 tons, indicating a low quantity and a high virtual-to-real ratio, suggesting a stronger performance for NR [1] - The demand side remains weak due to external trade environment impacts and seasonal off-peak periods, leading to cautious purchasing behavior from downstream [1] Group 2 - The Chinese and Thai governments are discussing the implementation of zero tariffs on rubber, with a consensus to establish a joint working group to promote tariff reductions and trade barrier resolutions [2] - Although the zero tariff negotiations have not reached a final outcome, market expectations have been adjusted, leading to a decline in raw material prices [2] - The current market lacks clear directional guidance, with stable downstream tire demand but overall weak rubber price trends [2]