1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall negative factors in the rubber market have been fully released as of October 9, 2025. Subsequently, tracking macro - dynamics and weather conditions will be crucial price drivers [12]. - The rubber price is currently low, offering a good risk - reward ratio for long positions. If there are positive events, the rubber price is likely to rebound [12]. - The US tariff negative news on October 13, 2025, was beyond expectations and requires further observation [12]. - Currently, the driving factors for rubber price increases are diminishing, and the price may fluctuate and consolidate [12]. - The postponement of EUDR implementation is a short - term negative for demand, but the new proposal in October 2025 is a marginal positive with limited upside potential [13]. - The 62,000 - ton rubber release in September 2025 is considered a short - term negative and a medium - term positive [14]. - The market's long - side logic is mainly based on the expected supply disruptions in Thailand due to the rainy season, with more upward movements than downward movements in the second half of the year. The short - side's main reasons are the weak actual demand and the expected decline in demand due to tariff policies [18]. - The new production capacity of butadiene is expected to increase supply and reduce processing profits. However, the maintenance season in the fourth quarter creates upward price elasticity [23]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price Drivers and Outlook**: The overall negative factors in the rubber market have been fully released. The rubber price is low, and if there are positive events, it may rebound. Currently, the driving factors for price increases are diminishing, and the price may fluctuate [12]. - **Policy Impact**: The US tariff news on October 13, 2025, was unexpected. The EUDR implementation was postponed again, which is a short - term negative for demand. The 62,000 - ton rubber release in September 2025 is a short - term negative and a medium - term positive [12][13][14]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The demand for all - steel tires is normal, while the demand for semi - steel tires for export to Europe has weakened. Thailand is still in the rainy season, and supply is easily affected. There are differences in medium - term supply expectations, with some expecting a small increase and others expecting an increase of 20 - 30 tons [16][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: The rubber price is bullish in the medium term. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions on dips. Pay attention to the strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2511 (shorts can shift to RU2609) for potential band - trading opportunities [18]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Seasonal Patterns**: Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year. The ratio of Shanghai rubber to Japanese rubber, and the ratio of rubber to crude oil have shown certain trends. The overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable [31][37][40]. 3.3 Profit and Price Ratios - **Ratio Analysis**: The ratios of rubber to copper, Brent crude oil, black commodities, and stock indices are generally normal, with no significant special values or points of concern [48][51][55]. 3.4 Cost Side - **Cost Estimates**: The cost of cup rubber in Thailand is generally considered to be between 30 - 35 Thai baht. The cost of Hainan full - latex in China is around 13,500 yuan, and the cost of Yunnan full - latex is between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. Rubber maintenance costs are dynamic, related to the rubber price [61]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Tire Factory Operation**: The operating rates of tire factories show no significant special values. The demand for trucks and commercial vehicles is gradually improving, which will affect the demand for supporting tires. The export of truck tires is booming but is expected to decline slightly in the future [67][71][75]. 3.6 Supply Side - **Supply Status**: The supply of rubber in major producing countries is generally normal, with no significant special values or points of concern. The production and export data of Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Vietnam, and China are presented in detail, along with year - on - year and month - on - month comparisons [81][85][97]. - **New Production Capacity**: In 2025, new production capacity for butadiene is expected to increase by 113 tons, with a 16% increase in total capacity compared to 2024. This is expected to increase supply and reduce processing profits [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, rubber prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the RU2601 contract oscillating between 15,000 - 16,500 yuan/ton, the NR main contract between 11,800 - 13,200 yuan/ton, and the synthetic rubber BR main contract between 11,000 - 12,300 yuan/ton. In the long term, there is a higher probability of an upward breakthrough [1][31] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In the third quarter of this year, rubber prices generally showed a pattern of rising and then falling. In July, stimulated by the "anti - involution" policy in China, rubber prices rose. Tensions between Cambodia and Thailand also boosted market sentiment, but prices dropped after the conflict ended. In August, prices fluctuated within a narrow range due to a decline in tire enterprise operating rates. In September, prices declined again due to weak demand, high semi - steel tire inventory, and the approaching peak production season [3] 2. Industrial Structure Analysis 2.1 Upstream - Since September, raw material production in the Xishuangbanna area has gradually increased, but recent rainfall has made raw material release unstable. Typhoon "Hikaa" affected Hainan in late September, limiting rubber production, but the impact was limited. Some areas in Thailand's main production regions are still affected by rainfall, with slow and unstable raw material release. As the market declined, raw material purchase prices weakened, but the low inventory of rubber factories supported the bottom of the cup - rubber purchase price. Upstream processing plants have high production costs and lack processing profits [5] - The global rubber production capacity is still in an increasing cycle. Although the growth rate of newly opened - up areas has slowed down since 2020, the production capacity remains large. In 2020, production decreased due to the pandemic and weather factors, and the marginal output has been declining since 2021. ANRPC predicts that in July 2025, global natural rubber production will slightly decrease by 0.1% to 1.328 million tons, and consumption will drop by 4.1% to 1.246 million tons. For the first 7 months, cumulative production is expected to increase by 0.1% to 7.477 million tons, and cumulative consumption will decrease by 0.6% to 8.888 million tons. In 2025, global natural rubber production is expected to increase by 0.5% to 14.892 million tons, and consumption will increase by 1.3% to 15.565 million tons [7][8] - According to QinRex data, in the first 8 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 1.05 million tons, a 14.4% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In August alone, exports increased by 14.8% year - on - year but decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [9] 2.2 Midstream - In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 7.8% increase compared to the same period in 2024. From January to August, the total import volume was 5.373 million tons, a 19% increase [11] - As of the week of September 25, the total inventory of natural rubber futures warehouse receipts was 153,570 tons, remaining stable compared to the previous week. The total inventory of 20 - number rubber futures warehouse receipts was 44,756 tons, a slight increase of 100 tons [11] - As of the week of September 19, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 4.537 million tons, a 0.94% decrease. The inventory in the bonded area was 71,100 tons, a 6.32% decrease, while the general trade inventory was 382,600 tons, a 0.13% increase [11] 2.3 Downstream - As of the week of September 25, the operating rate of Shandong tire enterprises' all - steel tires was 65.04%, the same as the previous week and 8.7% higher than the same period last year. The operating rate of domestic tire enterprises' semi - steel tires was 74.52%, the same as the previous week but 4.27% lower than the same period last year. Tire enterprises are facing pressure on inventory due to slow export order delivery and weak domestic demand [15] - In August 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tube production was 102.954 million pieces, a 1.5% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the cumulative production was 795.467 million pieces, a 1.6% increase. From January to August, China's rubber tire exports reached 6.5 million tons, a 5.1% increase, and the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a 4.6% increase [17] - From January to August this year, China's automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, a 12.7% and 12.6% year - on - year increase. Among them, new energy vehicle production and sales were 9.625 million and 9.62 million vehicles respectively, a 37.3% and 36.7% year - on - year increase. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 45.5% of total vehicle sales. From January to August, China's automobile exports were 4.292 million vehicles, a 13.7% year - on - year increase, and new energy vehicle exports were 1.532 million vehicles, an 87.3% year - on - year increase [20] - In August 2025, heavy - truck wholesale sales reached about 87,000 vehicles, a 40% year - on - year increase and a 2% month - on - month increase. From January to August, heavy - truck sales reached about 711,000 vehicles, a 14% year - on - year increase, and annual sales are expected to exceed 1 million vehicles [25] - At the end of August 2025, the total inventory of all - steel tires in China was 10.19 million pieces (from 25 monitored sample enterprises), a slight decrease from the end of July. The total inventory of semi - steel tires was 18.53 million pieces, also a slight decrease from the end of July [26] 3. Future Outlook - Supply side: Currently, heavy rainfall in domestic and foreign production areas affects rubber tapping, leading to tight raw material output. The natural rubber inventory in Qingdao, the main domestic distribution hub, continues to decline. In the long term, the aging of rubber trees in Indonesia and Malaysia will lead to a decline in future production [31] - Demand side: The improvement in the downstream tire market is limited. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream factories has weakened, and the spot trading pace has slowed, reducing the support for natural rubber prices. The inventory of semi - steel tire products remains high, and the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises has been declining this year [31] - Technical side: In the short term, rubber prices will fluctuate within a range. In the long term, there is a higher probability of an upward breakthrough [31]

Core Viewpoint - The rubber sector experienced a collective decline in prices, primarily influenced by macroeconomic sentiments and expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate adjustments [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Southeast Asia has entered its production peak season, leading to increased supply expectations for the fourth quarter [2]. - Despite the rainy season affecting tapping operations, production is steadily recovering in major domestic and international regions [1][2]. - Domestic natural rubber social inventory was reported at 1.235 million tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons or 1.8% from the previous period [2]. - Demand remains subdued despite entering the traditional consumption peak season, with downstream enterprises purchasing based on need [2][3]. Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The prices of various rubber futures contracts have shown significant declines, with the Shanghai rubber futures contract down 2.08% to 15,570 yuan/ton [1]. - Analysts indicate that the market is currently under dual pressure from high production levels and insufficient inventory reduction [3]. - The overall sentiment in the rubber market is bearish, with expectations of continued price adjustments in the short term [3]. Future Outlook - In the medium to long term, after the production peak season, rubber prices may gradually increase [3]. - The market is advised to monitor the recovery pace of overseas demand and the progress of relevant pilot projects between Thailand and China [3]. - Analysts predict that natural rubber prices will likely remain weak until October, with attention needed on cost support and policy signals [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for RU and NR is neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [6] 2. Core View of the Report - For natural rubber, in the next one to two weeks, domestic rainfall is expected to decrease, but the main rubber - producing areas overseas, especially Thailand, will still be affected by rainfall. The cost - side support for rubber remains strong. Although the domestic rubber arrival volume has slightly recovered, the downstream has been actively purchasing, leading to a significant reduction in Qingdao port inventory in the past week. After the end of maintenance, the downstream tire production rate has rebounded, and the overall downstream demand is in a seasonal peak with a month - on - month improvement. With both supply and demand booming and expected continuous downstream purchases, there may still be a slight reduction in inventory in the short term, and rubber prices are expected to remain firm. However, after the downstream restocking is completed, there will be pressure for the domestic port inventory to rise again. - For BR, there are concerns about cost - side drag recently. The weakening of crude oil prices may lead to an adjustment in butadiene prices, and the butadiene inventory has gradually increased. After the downstream restocking is completed, there may be pressure. However, the fundamentals of BR itself are still good. There are maintenance plans for several BR production facilities, which are expected to lead to a phased decline in supply. The downstream tire demand is in a peak season, tire manufacturers have increased their purchases, and the production rate has rebounded after the end of maintenance. The large price difference with natural rubber also supports the price of BR [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - **Futures**: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,995 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,710 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,705 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton [1] - **Spot**: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,150 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton; the price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 15,150 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,870 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,790 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of Zhejiang Transfar's BR9000 was 11,550 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information - **Import Volume**: In August 2025, China imported a total of 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 7.8% increase from 616,000 tons in the same period in 2024. From January to August, the total import volume was 5.373 million tons, a 19% increase from 4.514 million tons in the same period in 2024 [2] - **Export Volume of Cote d'Ivoire**: In the first eight months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber export volume totaled 1.05 million tons, a 14.4% increase from 920,000 tons in the same period in 2024. In August alone, the export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [2] - **Truck Sales**: In August 2025, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China was about 84,000 (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy vehicles), a 1% month - on - month decrease and a 35% increase from 62,500 in the same period last year. From January to August, the cumulative sales volume of heavy - duty trucks was about 708,000, a 13% year - on - year increase [2] - **Automobile Production and Sales**: From January to August, China's automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million respectively, a 12.7% and 12.6% year - on - year increase. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 9.625 million and 9.62 million respectively, a 37.3% and 36.7% year - on - year increase, and the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.5% of the total sales of new vehicles. In terms of exports, from January to August, 4.292 million automobiles were exported, a 13.7% year - on - year increase, and 1.532 million new energy vehicles were exported, an 87.3% year - on - year increase [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spread**: On September 15, 2025, the RU basis was - 845 yuan/ton (- 25), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 845 yuan/ton (+ 5), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,205 yuan/ton (+ 214.90), the NR basis was 577.00 yuan/ton (- 78.00); the price of whole latex was 15,150 yuan/ton (+ 150), the price of mixed rubber was 15,150 yuan/ton (+ 170), the price of 3L spot was 15,300 yuan/ton (+ 50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,870 US dollars/ton (+ 10), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 150 yuan/ton (+ 100); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,850 yuan/ton (+ 170) [4] - **Raw Materials**: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 60.06 Thai baht/kg (- 0.11), the price of Thai latex was 56.20 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 51.00 Thai baht/kg (- 0.70), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 5.20 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.70) [4] - **开工率**: The production rate of all - steel tires was 66.31% (+ 5.57%), and the production rate of semi - steel tires was 72.61% (+ 5.69%) [5] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,257,715 tons (- 7,183), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 586,639 tons (- 5,636), the RU futures inventory was 151,740 tons (- 10,490), and the NR futures inventory was 45,964 tons (- 605) [5] BR - **Spot and Spread**: On September 15, 2025, the BR basis was - 155 yuan/ton (- 40), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,250 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of Zhejiang Transfar's BR9000 was 11,550 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of Shandong private - owned BR was 11,500 yuan/ton (+ 50), and the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 1,698 yuan/ton (- 39) [5] - **开工率**: The production rate of high - cis BR was 73.48% (- 2.68%) [5] - **Inventory**: The inventory of BR traders was 8,210 tons (+ 950), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 26,300 tons (+ 1,650) [5] Strategy - The strategy for RU and NR is neutral. Considering the supply - demand situation and cost - side factors, the short - term price is expected to be firm, but there is inventory increase pressure in the future. - The strategy for BR is neutral. Although there are cost - side concerns, the fundamentals are good, and the price is supported by factors such as production facility maintenance and downstream demand [6]

Report Title - Natural and Synthetic Rubber Daily Review 20250812: Natural Rubber Fluctuates Strongly, Synthetic Rubber Fluctuates Strongly [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Natural rubber prices may fluctuate strongly due to increased precipitation in producing areas affecting the tapping process, while synthetic rubber prices may also fluctuate strongly as the prices of upstream raw materials rise. Attention should be paid to the support and resistance levels of natural rubber and butadiene rubber [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data Natural Rubber - On August 11, 2025, the closing price was 15,755, up 205 from the previous day; the trading volume was 415,983 lots, an increase of 141,976 lots; the open interest of the active futures contract was 188,179 lots, an increase of 5,213 lots; the registered warrant volume was 175,440, down 840; the basis was -1,055, down 30; and there were various changes in regional price differences and monthly spreads [1] Synthetic Rubber - On August 8, 2025, the closing price was 11,785, up 270 from the previous day; the trading volume was 138,315 lots, an increase of 96,945 lots; the open interest of the active futures contract was 28,088 lots, an increase of 2,463 lots; the registered warrant volume was 10,470, up 160; the basis was -218.33, down 70; and there were also changes in regional price differences and monthly spreads [1] Supply Side - In the future, there will be precipitation in major natural rubber producing areas such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia, with Thailand issuing a heavy rain warning. In domestic producing areas, there will be precipitation in Guangdong, Hainan, Yunnan, Guangxi, etc. As of August 7, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 64.71%, down 4.62% from the previous week, and that of styrene-butadiene rubber was 79.32%, up 0.58%. As of August 11, the daily after-tax profit margins of different synthetic rubber production processes showed different trends, and the start-up rates of synthetic rubber-related product devices were relatively stable [1] Inventory - As of August 8, 2026, the weekly total warrant inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 210,330 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons from the previous week; the weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 413,500 tons, a decrease of 6,100 tons; and the bonded area inventory was 87,700 tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons. As of August 7, 2025, the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 12,666 tons, a decrease of 272 tons [1] Cost Side - The global natural rubber supply has entered an increasing period, and major domestic and foreign producing areas are fully tapping. As of August 11, 2025, the glue purchase price in Songkhla, Thailand remained unchanged from the previous day, while the daily purchase price of natural rubber glue in Hainan increased by 250 yuan/ton. For synthetic rubber, due to the maintenance of butadiene plants in Shandong and South China and the delay of new capacity in the Northeast, the butadiene price rose slightly. As of August 11, the daily average price of butadiene (99.5%) in China was 9,447.5 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton. As of August 6, the weekly port inventory of butadiene in China was 14,700 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons [1] Demand Side - As of August 7, 2025, the weekly operating load rate of all-steel tires in Shandong was 60.98%, down 0.18% from the previous week, and that of semi-steel tires in China was 74.53%, down 0.1%. According to the Passenger Car Association, from July 1 - 31, the retail sales of the national automobile market were 2.598 million vehicles, a decrease of 11,500 vehicles from the previous month; the sales of passenger cars were 2.287 million vehicles, a decrease of 248,600 vehicles; and the sales of trucks were 264,000 vehicles, a decrease of 52,200 vehicles. The auto market has entered the traditional off-season. From January - July 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles in China were 18.235 million and 18.269 million vehicles, with year-on-year increases of 12.7% and 12% respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - Rubber futures are experiencing a pullback after a continuous rise, with high inventory levels and improving demand creating a complex interplay of bullish and bearish factors affecting rubber prices [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The rubber market is currently facing a high inventory situation, which is exerting downward pressure on prices [1] - Despite the high inventory, demand for rubber is showing positive trends, indicating potential support for prices [1] Group 2: Price Outlook - The future direction of rubber prices remains uncertain due to the conflicting influences of high inventory and improving demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japanese rubber futures have experienced six consecutive declines due to increased supply and market concerns, with institutions predicting a continued weak price trend in the short term [1] Industry Summary - The rubber market is facing dual pressures from rising supply levels and market apprehensions, leading to a bearish outlook for prices [1] - Institutions are forecasting that the downward trend in rubber prices is likely to persist in the near future [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rubber futures market is experiencing a significant decline, influenced by the zero-tariff negotiations between China and Thailand, as well as changes in the trading regulations for standard warehouse receipts by the Shanghai Futures Exchange [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Rubber futures are leading the decline in the futures market today [1] - The price of rubber may continue to decrease due to the recent developments in trade negotiations and regulatory changes [1] Group 2: Regulatory Changes - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has modified the trading rules for standard warehouse receipts, which could impact rubber pricing dynamics [1] - The zero-tariff negotiations between China and Thailand are expected to affect the supply and demand balance in the rubber market [1]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for rubber shows a downward trend, with the main contract for 20 rubber futures opening at 12,870.00 CNY/ton and experiencing a decline of 3.66% [1] - As of May 27, the NR warehouse receipts were at 30,744 tons, indicating a low quantity and a high virtual-to-real ratio, suggesting a stronger performance for NR [1] - The demand side remains weak due to external trade environment impacts and seasonal off-peak periods, leading to cautious purchasing behavior from downstream [1] Group 2 - The Chinese and Thai governments are discussing the implementation of zero tariffs on rubber, with a consensus to establish a joint working group to promote tariff reductions and trade barrier resolutions [2] - Although the zero tariff negotiations have not reached a final outcome, market expectations have been adjusted, leading to a decline in raw material prices [2] - The current market lacks clear directional guidance, with stable downstream tire demand but overall weak rubber price trends [2]