| HONGYUAN FUTURES | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 变量名称 2025-08-11 | | 2025-08-08 | 2025-08-01 | 较昨日变动 | | 近期走势 | | 收盘价 15755 | | 15550 | 14310 | 205.00 | | | | 成交量(手) 天然橡胶 | 415983 | 274007 | 329655 | | 141, 976.00 ~~ | | | 188179 期货活跃合约 持仓量(手) | | 182966 | 190262 | | 5.213.00 ~~~ | | | 注册仓单量 175440 | | 176280 | 177630 | -840.00 | | | | 天然橡胶基差 -1055 | | -1025 | 65 | -30.00 - | | | | 天津-上海标准胶SCRWF日度价差 -150 天然橡胶基差 | | -125 | -75 | -25.00 | | | | 山东-上海标准胶SCRWF日度价差 (现货与期货) -175 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Japanese rubber futures have experienced six consecutive declines due to increased supply and market concerns, with institutions predicting a continued weak price trend in the short term [1] Industry Summary - The rubber market is facing dual pressures from rising supply levels and market apprehensions, leading to a bearish outlook for prices [1] - Institutions are forecasting that the downward trend in rubber prices is likely to persist in the near future [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rubber futures market is experiencing a significant decline, influenced by the zero-tariff negotiations between China and Thailand, as well as changes in the trading regulations for standard warehouse receipts by the Shanghai Futures Exchange [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Rubber futures are leading the decline in the futures market today [1] - The price of rubber may continue to decrease due to the recent developments in trade negotiations and regulatory changes [1] Group 2: Regulatory Changes - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has modified the trading rules for standard warehouse receipts, which could impact rubber pricing dynamics [1] - The zero-tariff negotiations between China and Thailand are expected to affect the supply and demand balance in the rubber market [1]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for rubber shows a downward trend, with the main contract for 20 rubber futures opening at 12,870.00 CNY/ton and experiencing a decline of 3.66% [1] - As of May 27, the NR warehouse receipts were at 30,744 tons, indicating a low quantity and a high virtual-to-real ratio, suggesting a stronger performance for NR [1] - The demand side remains weak due to external trade environment impacts and seasonal off-peak periods, leading to cautious purchasing behavior from downstream [1] Group 2 - The Chinese and Thai governments are discussing the implementation of zero tariffs on rubber, with a consensus to establish a joint working group to promote tariff reductions and trade barrier resolutions [2] - Although the zero tariff negotiations have not reached a final outcome, market expectations have been adjusted, leading to a decline in raw material prices [2] - The current market lacks clear directional guidance, with stable downstream tire demand but overall weak rubber price trends [2]