1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber market supply side still has strong support as overseas is in the low - production period with rising raw material procurement prices, and although Yunnan in China is gradually starting to harvest, the new rubber output is small [4] - The production of most all - steel tire enterprises remains stable, with some increasing daily production to fill previous order gaps. The implementation of price increases by enterprises varies, adjusted flexibly according to profit levels and order situations [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The daily closing price of the rubber main contract was 16,870 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan from the previous day; the night - closing price was 16,780 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan. The trading volume was 278,101 lots, a decrease of 62,803 lots. The open interest of the 05 contract was 134,869 lots, a decrease of 5,436 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity was 120,800 tons, a decrease of 40 tons. The net short position of the top 20 members was 23,929 lots, a decrease of 3,220 lots [2] - **Spread Data**: The basis of spot - futures main contract was - 170 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the basis of mixed - futures main contract was - 1,220 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The monthly spread of RU05 - RU09 was 85 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] - **Spot Market**: The RSS3 outer - market quote was 2,530 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the STR20 was 2,050 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the SMR20 was 2,040 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the SIR20 was 1,955 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber was 16,000 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the Qilu cis - butadiene rubber was 15,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard rubber in Qingdao market decreased by 30 US dollars/ton, and the African 10 decreased by 30 - 35 US dollars/ton [2] 3.2 Industry News - As of March 15, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 67.76 million tons, a decrease of 0.28 million tons or 0.42% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory increased by 1.43% to 12.13 million tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.81% to 55.63 million tons. The inbound and outbound rates of bonded warehouses and general trade warehouses in Qingdao increased [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contradiction in the current market is anchored to the US - Iran situation. Although the negotiation progress is slow, there are differences in the market's view on the evolution of the conflict, so oil prices are fluctuating repeatedly, waiting for further guidance from market news [1]. - For fuel oil, the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil has marginally improved, and the high - sulfur supply has decreased. The short - term market still focuses on the impact of the latest developments in the US - Iran situation on the crude oil and fuel oil markets [2]. - For asphalt, the supply in the northern region remains relatively low, and refineries are mainly accumulating inventory. The short - term market still focuses on the impact of the latest developments in the US - Iran situation on the raw material market [2]. - For polyester, PX and PTA are expected to be strongly volatile under cost support, while ethylene glycol is expected to be weakly volatile under high - inventory pressure after the festival, but its supply - demand pattern may improve in March [4]. - For rubber, due to the firm raw material price in the low - production season and the increasing concern about production, the rubber price is expected to be strongly volatile [6]. - For methanol, affected by the gas restriction in Iran, the import volume is expected to gradually decline. The MTO device load in the Yangtze River Delta region is not high currently but is expected to recover after the Spring Festival. The subsequent port will enter the de - stocking stage, but the continued tension in the US - Iran situation will cause the methanol price to fluctuate significantly [6]. - For polyolefins, the post - festival demand recovery is slow, and due to the pre - festival downstream restocking, the short - term market trading activity is not high, and there is a certain pressure for further upward movement [6]. - For polyvinyl chloride, the post - festival supply maintains a slow - increasing trend, and the downstream demand support is limited. It is expected that the PVC price will maintain a bottom - level fluctuation [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views | Variety | Closing Price and Change on Thursday | Key Information | View | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Crude Oil | WTI April contract closed down $0.21 to $65.21/barrel, a decrease of 0.32%; Brent April contract closed down $0.1 to $70.75/barrel, a decrease of 0.14%; SC2604 closed at 489.8 yuan/barrel, up 3.6 yuan/barrel, an increase of 0.74% | US - Iran nuclear negotiations are ongoing, and the cost of chartering super - large oil tankers from the Middle East to China has exceeded $200,000 per day for the first time since 2020 | Volatility [1] | | Fuel Oil | FU2605 closed down 0.34% at 2943 yuan/ton; LU2605 closed down 1.18% at 3436 yuan/ton | Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory increased by 0.5%, and Fujeirah's fuel oil inventory decreased by 6.22%. The supply of low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil has changed | Volatility [2] | | Asphalt | BU2604 closed down 0.5% at 3358 yuan/ton | The supply in the north is low, and refineries are accumulating inventory. The production of main refineries in the south is intermittent | Volatility [2] | | Polyester | TA605 closed down 0.98% at 5260 yuan/ton; EG2605 closed down 1.25% at 3700 yuan/ton; PX605 closed down 0.67% at 7382 yuan/ton | An ethylene glycol device is expected to restart, and the downstream recovery time is around the Lantern Festival | Volatility [4] | | Rubber | RU2605 fell 115 yuan/ton to 17125 yuan/ton; NR fell 125 yuan/ton to 13855 yuan/ton; BR fell 345 yuan/ton to 12700 yuan/ton | Vietnam's natural rubber exports in January increased by 5% year - on - year, but exports to China decreased by 42% year - on - year. The operating load of domestic tire enterprises has increased | Volatility [4][6] | | Methanol | The spot price in Taicang is 2197 yuan/ton, and the price in Inner Mongolia is 1830 yuan/ton | Affected by the gas restriction in Iran, the import volume is expected to decline, and the MTO device load in the Yangtze River Delta region is expected to recover after the Spring Festival | Volatility [6] | | Polyolefins | The mainstream price of East China wire drawing is 6600 - 6700 yuan/ton | The post - festival demand recovery is slow, and the downstream restocked in advance | Volatility [6] | | Polyvinyl Chloride | The price in the East China market is stable, and the price in the South China market has increased | The post - festival supply is slowly increasing, and the downstream demand has been overdrawn | Volatility [7] | 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy - chemical varieties on February 26, 2026, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - The US and Iran ended the third round of nuclear negotiations in Geneva, and the mediation party Oman said that the talks had made progress. Iran refused to transfer its enriched uranium abroad and demanded that the US lift sanctions [10]. - The EU sanctions envoy said that the EU needs to coordinate its plan to impose a comprehensive maritime service ban on Russia's seaborne crude oil exports with other G7 countries [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [12][14][16][18][22] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [27][28][30][32] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [33][35][39][41][43][45] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spread and ratio charts of different varieties, such as the spread between domestic and foreign crude oil, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt, etc. [48][50][51][55] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of LLDPE, PP, etc. [59] 3.5 Research Team Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than ten years of experience in futures derivatives market research, has won many awards [62]. - **Du Bingqin**: Director of Energy and Chemical Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain, has won many awards [63]. - **Di Yilin**: Rubber and polyester analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won many awards and is mainly engaged in the research of related futures varieties [64]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst of methanol, propylene, pure benzene, polyolefins, and PVC at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall risk preference in the crude oil market has improved, and oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. The prices of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - factors on oil prices [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices rebounded. WTI December contract rose $0.33 to $60.48 per barrel (0.55% increase), Brent December contract rose $0.52 to $64.92 per barrel (0.81% increase), and SC2512 closed at 465.1 yuan per barrel, up 5.9 yuan (1.28% increase). EIA inventory data showed a comprehensive decline in inventories. Mexican national oil company's production decreased year - on - year. The Fed cut interest rates, and the subsequent rate - cut path is uncertain. The market is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell. The Asian low - sulfur market structure weakened due to weak downstream demand and sufficient supply, while the high - sulfur market is expected to remain stable. FU and LU absolute prices will fluctuate with the cost side [3] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell. In November, the refinery's asphalt production plan decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The inventory levels all decreased. The supply pressure will ease, and there is still a rush - work expectation in some markets. The BU absolute price will fluctuate with the cost side [3] - **Polyester**: TA601 and EG2601 rose on Wednesday. The production and sales of polyester improved, and the fundamentals of TA improved. However, there is still a pressure of inventory accumulation for EG in the fourth quarter, and its price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil prices [4] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - number rubber rose, while the butadiene rubber contract fell. The social inventory of natural rubber decreased. Due to the upcoming Sino - US leaders' meeting and good demand, rubber prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [4] - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot price of methanol was reported. The domestic overhauled devices are gradually resuming production, and the overseas Iranian devices will be restricted by winter gas curtailment. The short - term port supply is still abundant, and methanol prices are expected to fluctuate [6] - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the prices of polyolefins were reported. The short - term production will remain high, and the marginal increase in demand will gradually decline. The rebound of crude oil supports the valuation, but the fundamental driving force is weakening, and prices are expected to enter a fluctuating stage [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China were reported. The supply remains high, domestic demand slows down, and exports are expected to be weak. The price has a demand for phased repair, but the rebound height is limited under high - inventory pressure [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The document provides the basis price, basis rate, and their changes of various energy - chemical varieties on October 29 and 28, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. It also shows the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9] 3.3 Market News - US EIA data shows that the decline in US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate fuel inventories last week exceeded analysts' expectations, forcing the market to re - evaluate the expectation of a large surplus in the oil market [11] - Trump predicted that his talks with Chinese leaders would yield good results. The talks are scheduled for Thursday at a summit in South Korea. The positive news about the Sino - US talks and the US - South Korea trade agreement eased investors' concerns about the economic recession caused by Trump's tariffs and trade wars [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: It provides the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It provides the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [25] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, such as the spread between 01 - 05 and 05 - 09 contracts of fuel oil, and the spread between the main and sub - main contracts of asphalt [39] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It provides the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as the spread between domestic and foreign crude oil, the B - W spread of crude oil, the high - low sulfur spread of fuel oil, etc. [55] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It provides the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP from 2018 to 2025 [63] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant to the director of the research institute and director of energy - chemical research. With more than ten years of experience in futures derivatives market research, she has won many awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises [67] - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping. She has won many industry awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry chain [68] - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester. She has won several awards and is good at data analysis and research on related varieties [69] - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, propylene, pure benzene, polyolefins, and PVC. He has a background in energy - chemical spot - futures trading and relevant professional qualifications [70]

Group 1 - Japanese rubber futures ended a four-day rise, while Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures continued to increase, indicating mixed market signals [1] - Demand for rubber is slowing down, raising concerns about future market performance [1] - A rainstorm warning in Thailand's rubber-producing regions could impact supply, adding uncertainty to the market outlook [1]