Group 1: Report Summary - The report is about the rubber market on February 27, 2026, indicating that the rubber market is in a wide - range oscillation [1] Group 2: Fundamental Data Futures Market - The day - session closing price of the rubber main contract was 17,125 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan from the previous day; the night - session closing price was 17,080 yuan/ton, down 235 yuan. The trading volume was 269,900 lots, a decrease of 2,877 lots, and the open interest of the 05 contract was 172,951 lots, a decrease of 2,140 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity was 114,070 tons, an increase of 1,500 tons, and the net short position of the top 20 members was 24,124 lots, an increase of 1,460 lots [2] Spread Data - The basis of spot - futures main contract was - 175, an increase of 15; the basis of mixed - futures main contract was - 1,225, an increase of 15; the monthly spread of RU05 - RU09 was 135, an increase of 5 [2] Spot Market - The RSS3 outer - market quotation was 2,460 dollars/ton, an increase of 20 dollars; STR20 and SMR20 remained unchanged at 2,100 dollars/ton and 2,090 dollars/ton respectively; SIR20 was 2,015 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 dollars. The prices of substitutes like Qilu butadiene styrene and Qilu cis - butadiene decreased. In the Qingdao market, the prices of some imported rubbers such as Thai standard, African 10 increased [2] Trend Intensity - The rubber trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend [2] Group 3: Industry News - This week, the natural rubber market saw a strong rise in prices due to the resonance of positive factors at home and abroad. The weekly average price of Shanghai full - latex was 16,738 yuan/ton, an increase of 578 yuan or 3.57%; the weekly average price of 20 - grade Thai standard in the Qingdao market was 2,043 dollars/ton, an increase of 73 dollars or 3.68%; the weekly average price of 20 - grade Thai mixed in the Qingdao market was 15,768 yuan/ton, an increase of 502 yuan or 3.29% [3][4]

2026 年 02 月 13 日 橡胶：震荡运行 20260213 | | 高琳琳 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 | gaolinlin@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | | | | | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 16. 450 | 16. 575 | -125 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 16. 485 | 16. 520 | -35 | | | | 成交量(手) | 180, 678 | 270. 154 | -89.476 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量 (手) | 152, 702 | 162, 081 | -9.379 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 112, 570 | 112. 570 | 0 | | | | 前20名会员净空持仓(手) | 22, 675 | 25. 648 | - ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The rubber market is expected to move in a volatile manner [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The night - closing price of the rubber main contract was 16,520 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 270,154 lots, an increase of 92,600 lots; the open interest was 162,081 lots, an increase of 10,137 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 112,570 tons; the net short position of the top 20 members was 25,648 lots, an increase of 1,157 lots [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis (spot - futures main) was - 175 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spread between mixed rubber and the futures main was - 1,175 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the spread between RU05 and RU09 was 90 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the RSS3 outer - market quotation was 2,250 US dollars/ton; the STR20 was 2,010 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars; the SMR20 was 2,000 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars; the SIR20 was 1,930 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars [1] - **Substitutes**: The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber was 13,050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Qilu cis - butadiene rubber was 12,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [1] - **Spot Market**: In the Qingdao market for imported rubber, the price of Thai standard rubber was 1955 - 1960 US dollars/ton for near - port and 1960 - 1965 US dollars/ton for spot, up 15 US dollars; the price of Thai mixed rubber was 1955 - 1960 US dollars/ton for near - port and 1960 - 1965 US dollars/ton for spot, up 15 US dollars; the price of African 10 rubber was 1885 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars [1] Industry News - **Semi - steel Tire Sample Enterprises**: Supported by foreign trade orders, the order performance of sample enterprises was better than expected. 50% of the enterprises' export orders increased to varying degrees compared with last month, 38% remained basically stable, and 13% decreased. The EU's rush for export orders and the increase in overseas customer orders before the Spring Festival supported enterprise production scheduling. The domestic replacement market had some stocking, but the overall performance was average, limiting the overall order increase [2][3] - **All - steel Tire Sample Enterprises**: The overall order performance further weakened. 20% of the all - steel tire sample enterprises' export orders increased compared with last month, 35% remained the same, and 45% decreased. Before the Spring Festival, overseas customers had moderate stocking, but the overall increase was limited due to the seasonal off - season. Domestic customers were restricted by funds and shipping pressure, and their stocking enthusiasm was not high, further weakening the overall orders [3] Trend Intensity - The rubber trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [1]

| | | 表 1：基本面数据 2026 年 02 月 06 日 橡胶：宽幅震荡 20260206 | | 项目 | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 16. 175 | 16. 385 | -210 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 16, 200 | 16, 325 | -125 | | | | 成交量(手) | 283. 333 | 245. 413 | +37, 920 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量 (手) | 150, 013 | 159, 917 | -9. 904 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 111.570 | 111.570 | 0 | | | | 前20名会员净空持仓(手) | 28, 660 | 31, 124 | -2, 464 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 现货-期货主力 | -175 | -185 | +10 | | | | 混合-期货主力 | -995 | -1.085 | +90 | | | 月 差 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the rubber industry is "shockingly strong" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rubber market shows a shockingly strong trend, with a trend strength of 1. In January, the all-steel tire industry was in a seasonal off - peak season, facing triple pressures from cost, demand, and inventory. In February, affected by the Spring Festival, the industry will enter a phased production suspension or limitation period. The market will show a trend of being quiet first and then stabilizing, with the focus on inventory reduction. Substantial improvement is expected in March [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The daily - closing price of the rubber main contract (05) was 16,180 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan from the previous day; the night - closing price was 16,310 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan. The trading volume was 254,278 lots, a decrease of 176,248 lots; the open interest was 153,505 lots, a decrease of 2,489 lots. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 110,870 tons, and the net short position of the top 20 members increased by 1,704 lots [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of "spot - futures main" remained at - 180, the spread of "mixed - futures main" decreased by 70 to - 1,050, and the monthly spread of "RU05 - RU09" remained at 130 [1] - **Spot Market**: In the external market quotes, RSS3 increased by 10 to 2,190 US dollars/ton, STR20 increased by 15 to 1,960 US dollars/ton, SMR20 increased by 15 to 1,950 US dollars/ton, and SIR20 increased by 30 to 1,880 US dollars/ton. Among the substitutes, the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber remained at 13,200 yuan/ton, and Qilu cis - butadiene rubber increased by 50 to 12,800 yuan/ton. In the Qingdao market, the price of Thai standard rubber decreased by 25 US dollars/ton, and Thai mixed rubber also decreased by 25 US dollars/ton. The price of African 10 decreased by 15/10 US dollars/ton [1] Industry News - In January, the all - steel tire industry was in a seasonal off - peak season. The prices of natural rubber, synthetic rubber, carbon black, and additives rebounded, driving up the raw material cost index by over 5%. The cost pressure was difficult to transfer downstream, and the profit margin continued to narrow. The promotion effect was poor, and the terminal replacement demand was further weakened. In February, affected by the Spring Festival, the industry will have a phased production suspension or limitation. The market will be quiet before the festival and gradually recover after the festival, and the mainstream price will likely remain stable. The industry's focus is on inventory reduction, and the substantial improvement will wait until the peak production season in March [2][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the rubber industry is "shockingly weak" [1] Core Viewpoints - Overseas raw material prices are continuously falling, weakening the bottom support for natural rubber (NR). The seasonal inventory accumulation trend of NR remains unchanged, and the downstream production and sales pressure persists [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The daily closing price of the rubber main contract was 15,620 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan from the previous day; the night closing price was 15,645 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The trading volume was 251,199 lots, an increase of 34,844 lots; the open interest of the 05 contract was 178,976 lots, a decrease of 7,467 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity was 109,870 tons, a decrease of 20 tons; the net short position of the top 20 members was 37,207 lots, a decrease of 2,487 lots [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of spot - futures main contract was -220 yuan, an increase of 25 yuan; the basis of mixed - futures main contract was -870 yuan, an increase of 25 yuan; the monthly spread of RU05 - RU09 was 45 yuan, an increase of 5 yuan [1] - **Spot Market**: The RSS3 outer - market quotation was 2,140 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars; the STR20 was 1,900 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars; the SMR20 was 1,890 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars; the SIR20 was 1,795 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars. The prices of substitutes such as Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber and Qilu cis - butadiene rubber also declined. The prices of imported rubber in the Qingdao market, such as Thai standard rubber and Thai mixed rubber, also decreased [1] Industry News - As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of NR in bonded and general trade in the Qingdao area was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons, with a growth rate of 2.94%. The bonded area inventory was 99,500 tons, with a growth rate of 6.42%; the general trade inventory was 485,400 tons, with a growth rate of 2.26%. The inbound and outbound rates of sample bonded warehouses and general trade warehouses in Qingdao increased to varying degrees [2][3] - Some semi - steel tire enterprises with a relatively large proportion of European exports have relatively sufficient foreign trade orders recently, and their production is maintained at a relatively high level. However, the overall inventory reserve of enterprises has further increased, the domestic sales are slow, and the overall sales pressure of enterprises remains high [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The rubber market is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [1] - The trend strength of rubber is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2] Summary of Related Catalogs Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The daily closing price of the rubber main contract was 16,160 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan from the previous day; the night - closing price was 16,155 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The trading volume was 481,772 lots, an increase of 101,516 lots. The open interest of the 05 contract was 199,739 lots, an increase of 5,065 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 105,590 tons. The net short position of the top 20 members increased by 1,154 lots to 47,479 lots [2] - **Spread Data**: The basis of spot - futures main contract decreased by 35 to - 310, the basis of mixed - futures main contract decreased by 85 to - 1,010, and the monthly spread of RU05 - RU09 decreased by 10 to 20 [2] - **Spot Market**: The outer - market quotes of RSS3, STR20, SMR20, and SIR20 remained unchanged. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber and Qilu cis - butadiene rubber increased by 100 yuan/ton. The prices of Thai mixed rubber and Thai standard rubber in the Qingdao market decreased by 10 dollars/ton, and the price of African 10 decreased by 15/10 dollars/ton [2] Industry News - As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 56.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.98 million tons or 3.62%. The bonded area inventory increased by 6.14% to 9.35 million tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 3.13% to 47.47 million tons. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses decreased by 1.64 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.97 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.33 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.33 percentage points [3][4] - The spread between the main contracts of RU and NR widened by 10 yuan/ton to 3,145 yuan/ton, and the spread between mixed standard rubber and the main RU contract widened by 85 yuan/ton to - 1,010 yuan/ton [4] - There is a certain difference in the release of production capacity between enterprises. Some semi - steel tire enterprises have an increase in foreign trade orders, and their production has been further released. Some are still under production control due to sales pressure. Overall, foreign trade shipments support the overall shipments, but domestic sales pressure remains high [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The rubber market is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The daily closing price of the rubber main contract was 15,975 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan from the previous day; the night - closing price was 16,140 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The trading volume was 380,256 lots, an increase of 30,564 lots. The position of the 05 contract was 194,674 lots, a decrease of 5,832 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity was 105,590 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons. The net short position of the top 20 members was 46,325 lots, a decrease of 239 lots [2]. - **Spread Data**: The spot - futures main spread was - 275 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan; the mixed - futures main spread was - 925 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan. The RU05 - RU09 spread was 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [2]. - **Spot Market**: The RSS3 outer - market quotation was 2,170 US dollars/ton, unchanged; STR20 was 1,935 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; SMR20 was 1,925 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; SIR20 was 1,830 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber was 12,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; Qilu cis - butadiene rubber was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. In the Qingdao market, the price of Thai standard rubber was 1900 - 1910 US dollars/ton (near - port) and 1910 - 1915 US dollars/ton (spot), with an increase of 20/15 US dollars; Thai mixed rubber was 1910 - 1915 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars; African 10 was 1855 US dollars/ton, an increase of 15/5 US dollars [2]. - **Trend Intensity**: The rubber trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend [2]. 3.2 Industry News - As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 568,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,800 tons, or 3.62%. The bonded area inventory was 93,500 tons, an increase of 6.14%; the general trade inventory was 474,700 tons, an increase of 3.13%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 1.64 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.97 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.33 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.33 percentage points [3][4]. - In terms of basis, the spread between the RU and NR main contracts was 3,135 yuan/ton, a month - on - month expansion of 15 yuan/ton; the spread between mixed standard rubber and the RU main contract was - 925 yuan/ton, a month - on - month contraction of 75 yuan/ton [4]. - Recently, some semi - steel tire foreign trade orders have increased, the device capacity has been further released, and some enterprises have moderately increased production, which has boosted the overall capacity utilization rate. The domestic sales performance within the cycle was average, and the enterprise's production increase was to reserve inventory [4].