Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Report date: March 19, 2026 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoint - Crude oil prices and asphalt futures remain highly volatile, which continues to benefit the asphalt spot market atmosphere. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues, and the scope of production cuts by Middle Eastern oil-producing countries continues to expand. Oil prices are on an upward trend, which significantly supports the cost side of asphalt. It is expected to be mainly strong [6]. Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The opening price of BU2606 was 4369 yuan/ton, the closing price was 4400 yuan/ton, the highest was 4509 yuan/ton, the lowest was 4337 yuan/ton, the increase was 0.11%, and the trading volume was 1.1326 million lots. The opening price of BU2609 was 4090 yuan/ton, the closing price was 4096 yuan/ton, the highest was 4202 yuan/ton, the lowest was 4054 yuan/ton, the decrease was 0.12%, and the trading volume was 0.0218 million lots [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Not provided Group 5: Industry News - **Shandong Market**: The mainstream intended price of 70A grade asphalt was 3960 - 4200 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from the previous working day. International oil prices closed higher, and asphalt futures maintained high volatility during the session, which continued to benefit the asphalt market. Today, the high-end quotes in the market were temporarily stable, but the transactions of some low-price resources were good, and the quotes of low-price resources continued to rise, driving up the asphalt price in the Shandong market [7]. - **South China Market**: The mainstream intended price of 70A grade asphalt was 4200 - 4400 yuan/ton, remaining stable from the previous working day. The main refineries still limited their shipments, and the market continued to be in a state of tight resource supply. However, the high price did suppress the project start intention, resulting in poor rigid demand for asphalt. The shipment price of traders was temporarily stable today [7]. Group 6: Data Overview - **Graphs**: The report includes graphs of asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, South China asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts [10][14][18][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contradiction in the current market is anchored to the US - Iran situation. Although the negotiation progress is slow, there are differences in the market's view on the evolution of the conflict, so oil prices are fluctuating repeatedly, waiting for further guidance from market news [1]. - For fuel oil, the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil has marginally improved, and the high - sulfur supply has decreased. The short - term market still focuses on the impact of the latest developments in the US - Iran situation on the crude oil and fuel oil markets [2]. - For asphalt, the supply in the northern region remains relatively low, and refineries are mainly accumulating inventory. The short - term market still focuses on the impact of the latest developments in the US - Iran situation on the raw material market [2]. - For polyester, PX and PTA are expected to be strongly volatile under cost support, while ethylene glycol is expected to be weakly volatile under high - inventory pressure after the festival, but its supply - demand pattern may improve in March [4]. - For rubber, due to the firm raw material price in the low - production season and the increasing concern about production, the rubber price is expected to be strongly volatile [6]. - For methanol, affected by the gas restriction in Iran, the import volume is expected to gradually decline. The MTO device load in the Yangtze River Delta region is not high currently but is expected to recover after the Spring Festival. The subsequent port will enter the de - stocking stage, but the continued tension in the US - Iran situation will cause the methanol price to fluctuate significantly [6]. - For polyolefins, the post - festival demand recovery is slow, and due to the pre - festival downstream restocking, the short - term market trading activity is not high, and there is a certain pressure for further upward movement [6]. - For polyvinyl chloride, the post - festival supply maintains a slow - increasing trend, and the downstream demand support is limited. It is expected that the PVC price will maintain a bottom - level fluctuation [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views | Variety | Closing Price and Change on Thursday | Key Information | View | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Crude Oil | WTI April contract closed down $0.21 to $65.21/barrel, a decrease of 0.32%; Brent April contract closed down $0.1 to $70.75/barrel, a decrease of 0.14%; SC2604 closed at 489.8 yuan/barrel, up 3.6 yuan/barrel, an increase of 0.74% | US - Iran nuclear negotiations are ongoing, and the cost of chartering super - large oil tankers from the Middle East to China has exceeded $200,000 per day for the first time since 2020 | Volatility [1] | | Fuel Oil | FU2605 closed down 0.34% at 2943 yuan/ton; LU2605 closed down 1.18% at 3436 yuan/ton | Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory increased by 0.5%, and Fujeirah's fuel oil inventory decreased by 6.22%. The supply of low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil has changed | Volatility [2] | | Asphalt | BU2604 closed down 0.5% at 3358 yuan/ton | The supply in the north is low, and refineries are accumulating inventory. The production of main refineries in the south is intermittent | Volatility [2] | | Polyester | TA605 closed down 0.98% at 5260 yuan/ton; EG2605 closed down 1.25% at 3700 yuan/ton; PX605 closed down 0.67% at 7382 yuan/ton | An ethylene glycol device is expected to restart, and the downstream recovery time is around the Lantern Festival | Volatility [4] | | Rubber | RU2605 fell 115 yuan/ton to 17125 yuan/ton; NR fell 125 yuan/ton to 13855 yuan/ton; BR fell 345 yuan/ton to 12700 yuan/ton | Vietnam's natural rubber exports in January increased by 5% year - on - year, but exports to China decreased by 42% year - on - year. The operating load of domestic tire enterprises has increased | Volatility [4][6] | | Methanol | The spot price in Taicang is 2197 yuan/ton, and the price in Inner Mongolia is 1830 yuan/ton | Affected by the gas restriction in Iran, the import volume is expected to decline, and the MTO device load in the Yangtze River Delta region is expected to recover after the Spring Festival | Volatility [6] | | Polyolefins | The mainstream price of East China wire drawing is 6600 - 6700 yuan/ton | The post - festival demand recovery is slow, and the downstream restocked in advance | Volatility [6] | | Polyvinyl Chloride | The price in the East China market is stable, and the price in the South China market has increased | The post - festival supply is slowly increasing, and the downstream demand has been overdrawn | Volatility [7] | 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy - chemical varieties on February 26, 2026, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - The US and Iran ended the third round of nuclear negotiations in Geneva, and the mediation party Oman said that the talks had made progress. Iran refused to transfer its enriched uranium abroad and demanded that the US lift sanctions [10]. - The EU sanctions envoy said that the EU needs to coordinate its plan to impose a comprehensive maritime service ban on Russia's seaborne crude oil exports with other G7 countries [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [12][14][16][18][22] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [27][28][30][32] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [33][35][39][41][43][45] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spread and ratio charts of different varieties, such as the spread between domestic and foreign crude oil, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt, etc. [48][50][51][55] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of LLDPE, PP, etc. [59] 3.5 Research Team Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than ten years of experience in futures derivatives market research, has won many awards [62]. - **Du Bingqin**: Director of Energy and Chemical Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain, has won many awards [63]. - **Di Yilin**: Rubber and polyester analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won many awards and is mainly engaged in the research of related futures varieties [64]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst of methanol, propylene, pure benzene, polyolefins, and PVC at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall risk preference in the crude oil market has improved, and oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. The prices of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - factors on oil prices [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices rebounded. WTI December contract rose $0.33 to $60.48 per barrel (0.55% increase), Brent December contract rose $0.52 to $64.92 per barrel (0.81% increase), and SC2512 closed at 465.1 yuan per barrel, up 5.9 yuan (1.28% increase). EIA inventory data showed a comprehensive decline in inventories. Mexican national oil company's production decreased year - on - year. The Fed cut interest rates, and the subsequent rate - cut path is uncertain. The market is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell. The Asian low - sulfur market structure weakened due to weak downstream demand and sufficient supply, while the high - sulfur market is expected to remain stable. FU and LU absolute prices will fluctuate with the cost side [3] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell. In November, the refinery's asphalt production plan decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The inventory levels all decreased. The supply pressure will ease, and there is still a rush - work expectation in some markets. The BU absolute price will fluctuate with the cost side [3] - **Polyester**: TA601 and EG2601 rose on Wednesday. The production and sales of polyester improved, and the fundamentals of TA improved. However, there is still a pressure of inventory accumulation for EG in the fourth quarter, and its price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil prices [4] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - number rubber rose, while the butadiene rubber contract fell. The social inventory of natural rubber decreased. Due to the upcoming Sino - US leaders' meeting and good demand, rubber prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [4] - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot price of methanol was reported. The domestic overhauled devices are gradually resuming production, and the overseas Iranian devices will be restricted by winter gas curtailment. The short - term port supply is still abundant, and methanol prices are expected to fluctuate [6] - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the prices of polyolefins were reported. The short - term production will remain high, and the marginal increase in demand will gradually decline. The rebound of crude oil supports the valuation, but the fundamental driving force is weakening, and prices are expected to enter a fluctuating stage [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China were reported. The supply remains high, domestic demand slows down, and exports are expected to be weak. The price has a demand for phased repair, but the rebound height is limited under high - inventory pressure [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The document provides the basis price, basis rate, and their changes of various energy - chemical varieties on October 29 and 28, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. It also shows the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9] 3.3 Market News - US EIA data shows that the decline in US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate fuel inventories last week exceeded analysts' expectations, forcing the market to re - evaluate the expectation of a large surplus in the oil market [11] - Trump predicted that his talks with Chinese leaders would yield good results. The talks are scheduled for Thursday at a summit in South Korea. The positive news about the Sino - US talks and the US - South Korea trade agreement eased investors' concerns about the economic recession caused by Trump's tariffs and trade wars [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: It provides the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It provides the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [25] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, such as the spread between 01 - 05 and 05 - 09 contracts of fuel oil, and the spread between the main and sub - main contracts of asphalt [39] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It provides the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as the spread between domestic and foreign crude oil, the B - W spread of crude oil, the high - low sulfur spread of fuel oil, etc. [55] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It provides the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP from 2018 to 2025 [63] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant to the director of the research institute and director of energy - chemical research. With more than ten years of experience in futures derivatives market research, she has won many awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises [67] - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping. She has won many industry awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry chain [68] - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester. She has won several awards and is good at data analysis and research on related varieties [69] - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, propylene, pure benzene, polyolefins, and PVC. He has a background in energy - chemical spot - futures trading and relevant professional qualifications [70]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [5] - Fuel oil & Low-sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short-term equilibrium state with poor market operability and a wait-and-see approach [5] - Asphalt: ★★★, representing a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [5] - LPG: ☆☆☆, showing a short-term equilibrium state with poor market operability and a wait-and-see approach [5] Report's Core View - The crude oil market showed a pattern of rising first and then falling last week. The market risk sentiment declined due to the lower-than-expected US non-farm payroll data in July. Although OPEC+ decided to increase production in September, it could only partially hedge certain risks, and the oil price is expected to be volatile and bullish after the recent correction. The fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil markets are facing weak fundamentals, and their cracking spreads are expected to remain weak. The asphalt supply increase space is neutral, demand needs to be repaired, and the low inventory supports the price, with its trend mainly following that of crude oil. The LPG market has a relatively loose supply, and the downside space of the spot price is limited [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Last week, the Brent 10 contract rose 2.84% and the SC09 contract rose 2.92%. The US July non-farm payroll data was lower than expected, and the data for May and June were significantly revised downward, causing the market risk sentiment to decline. OPEC+ decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September to fully exit the 2.2 million barrels per day batch production cut, which can only partially hedge some risks. The oil price is expected to be volatile and bullish after the recent correction, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the extension of Sino-US reciprocal tariffs before the August 12 deadline [2] Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - Crude oil led the decline in oil futures, and the fuel oil series trended lower. The low-sulfur fuel oil cracking continued to decline. The arrival volume in the Singapore market increased significantly in July, and the ship refueling demand lacked support after the peak season. The ship refueling volume in Fujairah has been weakening month-on-month since June. Due to the weak fundamentals of the high and low-sulfur fuel oil markets and the support of crude oil's peak-season demand and geopolitics, the cracking spreads of FU and LU are expected to remain weak [2] Asphalt - The inflow of Venezuelan crude oil into China increased by 3.8% in July. The impact of the diversion of Venezuelan oil resources flowing to North Asia after Chevron was approved to conduct oil business in Venezuela needs to be observed. The production plan in August decreased compared to July, but some Sinopec refineries' actual production exceeded the plan for two consecutive months. The demand recovery in South China was delayed, and the rigid demand in the North was also weak. The sample refinery's shipment volume increased slightly month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year increase was stable. The refinery inventory destocking slowed down, and the social inventory increased slightly. The overall commercial inventory increased slightly month-on-month but remained at a relatively low level in recent years. The supply increase space of asphalt is considered neutral for now, and the actual production release of major refineries needs to be tracked. The demand is in a weak state and needs to be repaired, and the low inventory supports the price. The BU trend mainly follows that of crude oil with limited fluctuation space [3] LPG - The Middle East CP was significantly reduced, but the spot discount shrank. Attention should be paid to the accumulation of export surplus pressure under OPEC's production increase. The chemical profit margin stabilized due to the decline in the finished product end, and the PDH operating rate is still rising, providing bottom support for domestic demand. The supply is relatively loose with the overall increase in the arrival volume in July, and the refinery gas may continue to follow the decline in import costs. The market price maintains a low ratio to oil, and the downside space of the spot price is relatively limited after the rapid decline [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆★ (Indicates a bias towards a long position, with a driving force for price increase, but limited operability on the trading floor) [5] - Fuel oil & Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (The short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [5] - Asphalt: ★★★ (Indicates a clearer long - position trend, and there is still a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [5] - LPG: ☆☆☆ (The short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall energy market is affected by multiple factors such as supply, demand, and geopolitical situations. Different energy products show different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude oil - Last week, the crude oil market rose first and then fell. Brent 10 contract still closed up 2.84%, and SC09 contract rose 2.92%. US July non - farm payrolls data was lower than expected, and data for May and June were significantly revised down. OPEC + 8 voluntary production - cut countries decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. This week, after the oil price correction, it is temporarily regarded as oscillating strongly. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the extension of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs before the August 12 deadline [2] Fuel oil & Low - sulfur fuel oil - Crude oil led the decline in oil - related futures. The fuel oil series trended lower, and the low - sulfur fuel oil crack spread continued to decline. The arrival volume in the Singapore market increased significantly in July, and the bunker fuel demand in Fujeirah has been weakening month - on - month since June. The crack spreads of FU and LU are expected to continue the weak trend [2] Asphalt - In July, the inflow of Venezuelan crude oil into China increased by 3.8% month - on - month. The August production plan decreased compared with July, but some Sinopec refineries' actual production exceeded the plan for two consecutive months. Demand recovery in South China was delayed, and northern demand was also weak. The overall commercial inventory increased slightly month - on - month but remained at a relatively low level in recent years. The BU trend mainly follows the direction of crude oil, but the fluctuation range is limited [3] LPG - The Middle East CP was significantly lowered, but the spot discount shrank. The chemical profit margin stabilized due to the decline in the finished product end. The PDH operating rate is still rising, and domestic demand has bottom - level support. The supply side is relatively loose, and refinery gas may continue to follow the decline in import costs. The downside space of the spot is relatively limited after the rapid decline [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the energy market, including crude oil, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, and liquefied petroleum gas. It assesses the supply and demand dynamics, price trends, and investment opportunities in each sector [2][3][4]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose, with the SC08 contract up 1.76%. The US EIA inventory unexpectedly increased by 712,800 barrels, and OPEC+ continued its rapid production increase strategy, strengthening the supply-demand loosening expectation, especially in the fourth quarter. However, in the third quarter, oil consumption during the peak season supports physical crude oil purchases, and the supply disruption of European diesel leads to expectations of refining profit recovery. The final outcome of the US reciprocal tariffs, postponed to August 1st, is likely to be weaker than in early April. The Middle East geopolitical risks related to the Iran nuclear dispute remain. The report maintains a view that crude oil prices will rise from the bottom and fluctuate strongly in the third quarter, and short-selling strategies should be considered after the peak season's impact weakens [2]. Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - Crude oil led the rise in oil futures, followed by LU, while FU was relatively weak. For high-sulfur fuel oil, demand from ship bunkering and deep processing was low, and the summer power generation demand in the Middle East and North Africa did not boost it. The supply risk was removed as the Middle East conflict eased, and both the single price and crack spread of FU continued to weaken. For low-sulfur fuel oil, the previous strong coking profit led to limited short-term supply pressure due to the diversion effect, and the strengthening of the Singapore diesel crack spread since late June also provided some support. However, the demand lacked a clear driver, and LU's trend mainly followed crude oil, with the short-term crack spread expected to fluctuate [2]. Asphalt - In June, the actual refinery output exceeded the production plan by 100,000 tons (+4.3%), and the commercial inventory shifted from destocking to stocking in late June, with a stocking increase of 24,000 tons. The unplanned increase was the key variable that broke the asphalt destocking pattern. In July, the shipment volume of 54 sample refineries decreased slightly month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year increase in shipment volume since the beginning of the year dropped from 8% to 7%. The continuous high temperature and increased rainfall in many places are expected to delay the overall demand recovery. The sales volume of road rollers increased significantly year-on-year from January to May, and the third quarter is a crucial observation window for asphalt demand recovery. Currently, the single price trend of asphalt mainly follows crude oil, but the weakening fundamentals limit the upside space of BU [3]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The international market supply is generally loose, and although crude oil has strengthened recently, the LPG price has remained stable. Last week, new maintenance led to a decline in chemical demand, but the decline in import costs continued to repair the PDH gross profit. Attention should be paid to the subsequent rebound rhythm of PDH operating rates. The supply pressure persists in summer, and the decline in import costs limits the upward momentum of the futures price, maintaining a weak and fluctuating trend [4].