Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [5] - Fuel oil & Low-sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short-term equilibrium state with poor market operability and a wait-and-see approach [5] - Asphalt: ★★★, representing a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [5] - LPG: ☆☆☆, showing a short-term equilibrium state with poor market operability and a wait-and-see approach [5] Report's Core View - The crude oil market showed a pattern of rising first and then falling last week. The market risk sentiment declined due to the lower-than-expected US non-farm payroll data in July. Although OPEC+ decided to increase production in September, it could only partially hedge certain risks, and the oil price is expected to be volatile and bullish after the recent correction. The fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil markets are facing weak fundamentals, and their cracking spreads are expected to remain weak. The asphalt supply increase space is neutral, demand needs to be repaired, and the low inventory supports the price, with its trend mainly following that of crude oil. The LPG market has a relatively loose supply, and the downside space of the spot price is limited [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Last week, the Brent 10 contract rose 2.84% and the SC09 contract rose 2.92%. The US July non-farm payroll data was lower than expected, and the data for May and June were significantly revised downward, causing the market risk sentiment to decline. OPEC+ decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September to fully exit the 2.2 million barrels per day batch production cut, which can only partially hedge some risks. The oil price is expected to be volatile and bullish after the recent correction, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the extension of Sino-US reciprocal tariffs before the August 12 deadline [2] Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - Crude oil led the decline in oil futures, and the fuel oil series trended lower. The low-sulfur fuel oil cracking continued to decline. The arrival volume in the Singapore market increased significantly in July, and the ship refueling demand lacked support after the peak season. The ship refueling volume in Fujairah has been weakening month-on-month since June. Due to the weak fundamentals of the high and low-sulfur fuel oil markets and the support of crude oil's peak-season demand and geopolitics, the cracking spreads of FU and LU are expected to remain weak [2] Asphalt - The inflow of Venezuelan crude oil into China increased by 3.8% in July. The impact of the diversion of Venezuelan oil resources flowing to North Asia after Chevron was approved to conduct oil business in Venezuela needs to be observed. The production plan in August decreased compared to July, but some Sinopec refineries' actual production exceeded the plan for two consecutive months. The demand recovery in South China was delayed, and the rigid demand in the North was also weak. The sample refinery's shipment volume increased slightly month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year increase was stable. The refinery inventory destocking slowed down, and the social inventory increased slightly. The overall commercial inventory increased slightly month-on-month but remained at a relatively low level in recent years. The supply increase space of asphalt is considered neutral for now, and the actual production release of major refineries needs to be tracked. The demand is in a weak state and needs to be repaired, and the low inventory supports the price. The BU trend mainly follows that of crude oil with limited fluctuation space [3] LPG - The Middle East CP was significantly reduced, but the spot discount shrank. Attention should be paid to the accumulation of export surplus pressure under OPEC's production increase. The chemical profit margin stabilized due to the decline in the finished product end, and the PDH operating rate is still rising, providing bottom support for domestic demand. The supply is relatively loose with the overall increase in the arrival volume in July, and the refinery gas may continue to follow the decline in import costs. The market price maintains a low ratio to oil, and the downside space of the spot price is relatively limited after the rapid decline [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆★ (Indicates a bias towards a long position, with a driving force for price increase, but limited operability on the trading floor) [5] - Fuel oil & Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (The short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [5] - Asphalt: ★★★ (Indicates a clearer long - position trend, and there is still a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [5] - LPG: ☆☆☆ (The short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall energy market is affected by multiple factors such as supply, demand, and geopolitical situations. Different energy products show different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude oil - Last week, the crude oil market rose first and then fell. Brent 10 contract still closed up 2.84%, and SC09 contract rose 2.92%. US July non - farm payrolls data was lower than expected, and data for May and June were significantly revised down. OPEC + 8 voluntary production - cut countries decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. This week, after the oil price correction, it is temporarily regarded as oscillating strongly. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the extension of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs before the August 12 deadline [2] Fuel oil & Low - sulfur fuel oil - Crude oil led the decline in oil - related futures. The fuel oil series trended lower, and the low - sulfur fuel oil crack spread continued to decline. The arrival volume in the Singapore market increased significantly in July, and the bunker fuel demand in Fujeirah has been weakening month - on - month since June. The crack spreads of FU and LU are expected to continue the weak trend [2] Asphalt - In July, the inflow of Venezuelan crude oil into China increased by 3.8% month - on - month. The August production plan decreased compared with July, but some Sinopec refineries' actual production exceeded the plan for two consecutive months. Demand recovery in South China was delayed, and northern demand was also weak. The overall commercial inventory increased slightly month - on - month but remained at a relatively low level in recent years. The BU trend mainly follows the direction of crude oil, but the fluctuation range is limited [3] LPG - The Middle East CP was significantly lowered, but the spot discount shrank. The chemical profit margin stabilized due to the decline in the finished product end. The PDH operating rate is still rising, and domestic demand has bottom - level support. The supply side is relatively loose, and refinery gas may continue to follow the decline in import costs. The downside space of the spot is relatively limited after the rapid decline [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the energy market, including crude oil, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, and liquefied petroleum gas. It assesses the supply and demand dynamics, price trends, and investment opportunities in each sector [2][3][4]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose, with the SC08 contract up 1.76%. The US EIA inventory unexpectedly increased by 712,800 barrels, and OPEC+ continued its rapid production increase strategy, strengthening the supply-demand loosening expectation, especially in the fourth quarter. However, in the third quarter, oil consumption during the peak season supports physical crude oil purchases, and the supply disruption of European diesel leads to expectations of refining profit recovery. The final outcome of the US reciprocal tariffs, postponed to August 1st, is likely to be weaker than in early April. The Middle East geopolitical risks related to the Iran nuclear dispute remain. The report maintains a view that crude oil prices will rise from the bottom and fluctuate strongly in the third quarter, and short-selling strategies should be considered after the peak season's impact weakens [2]. Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - Crude oil led the rise in oil futures, followed by LU, while FU was relatively weak. For high-sulfur fuel oil, demand from ship bunkering and deep processing was low, and the summer power generation demand in the Middle East and North Africa did not boost it. The supply risk was removed as the Middle East conflict eased, and both the single price and crack spread of FU continued to weaken. For low-sulfur fuel oil, the previous strong coking profit led to limited short-term supply pressure due to the diversion effect, and the strengthening of the Singapore diesel crack spread since late June also provided some support. However, the demand lacked a clear driver, and LU's trend mainly followed crude oil, with the short-term crack spread expected to fluctuate [2]. Asphalt - In June, the actual refinery output exceeded the production plan by 100,000 tons (+4.3%), and the commercial inventory shifted from destocking to stocking in late June, with a stocking increase of 24,000 tons. The unplanned increase was the key variable that broke the asphalt destocking pattern. In July, the shipment volume of 54 sample refineries decreased slightly month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year increase in shipment volume since the beginning of the year dropped from 8% to 7%. The continuous high temperature and increased rainfall in many places are expected to delay the overall demand recovery. The sales volume of road rollers increased significantly year-on-year from January to May, and the third quarter is a crucial observation window for asphalt demand recovery. Currently, the single price trend of asphalt mainly follows crude oil, but the weakening fundamentals limit the upside space of BU [3]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The international market supply is generally loose, and although crude oil has strengthened recently, the LPG price has remained stable. Last week, new maintenance led to a decline in chemical demand, but the decline in import costs continued to repair the PDH gross profit. Attention should be paid to the subsequent rebound rhythm of PDH operating rates. The supply pressure persists in summer, and the decline in import costs limits the upward momentum of the futures price, maintaining a weak and fluctuating trend [4].