1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall risk preference in the crude oil market has improved, and oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. The prices of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - factors on oil prices [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices rebounded. WTI December contract rose $0.33 to $60.48 per barrel (0.55% increase), Brent December contract rose $0.52 to $64.92 per barrel (0.81% increase), and SC2512 closed at 465.1 yuan per barrel, up 5.9 yuan (1.28% increase). EIA inventory data showed a comprehensive decline in inventories. Mexican national oil company's production decreased year - on - year. The Fed cut interest rates, and the subsequent rate - cut path is uncertain. The market is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell. The Asian low - sulfur market structure weakened due to weak downstream demand and sufficient supply, while the high - sulfur market is expected to remain stable. FU and LU absolute prices will fluctuate with the cost side [3] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell. In November, the refinery's asphalt production plan decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The inventory levels all decreased. The supply pressure will ease, and there is still a rush - work expectation in some markets. The BU absolute price will fluctuate with the cost side [3] - **Polyester**: TA601 and EG2601 rose on Wednesday. The production and sales of polyester improved, and the fundamentals of TA improved. However, there is still a pressure of inventory accumulation for EG in the fourth quarter, and its price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil prices [4] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - number rubber rose, while the butadiene rubber contract fell. The social inventory of natural rubber decreased. Due to the upcoming Sino - US leaders' meeting and good demand, rubber prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [4] - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot price of methanol was reported. The domestic overhauled devices are gradually resuming production, and the overseas Iranian devices will be restricted by winter gas curtailment. The short - term port supply is still abundant, and methanol prices are expected to fluctuate [6] - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the prices of polyolefins were reported. The short - term production will remain high, and the marginal increase in demand will gradually decline. The rebound of crude oil supports the valuation, but the fundamental driving force is weakening, and prices are expected to enter a fluctuating stage [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China were reported. The supply remains high, domestic demand slows down, and exports are expected to be weak. The price has a demand for phased repair, but the rebound height is limited under high - inventory pressure [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The document provides the basis price, basis rate, and their changes of various energy - chemical varieties on October 29 and 28, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. It also shows the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9] 3.3 Market News - US EIA data shows that the decline in US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate fuel inventories last week exceeded analysts' expectations, forcing the market to re - evaluate the expectation of a large surplus in the oil market [11] - Trump predicted that his talks with Chinese leaders would yield good results. The talks are scheduled for Thursday at a summit in South Korea. The positive news about the Sino - US talks and the US - South Korea trade agreement eased investors' concerns about the economic recession caused by Trump's tariffs and trade wars [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: It provides the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It provides the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [25] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, such as the spread between 01 - 05 and 05 - 09 contracts of fuel oil, and the spread between the main and sub - main contracts of asphalt [39] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It provides the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as the spread between domestic and foreign crude oil, the B - W spread of crude oil, the high - low sulfur spread of fuel oil, etc. [55] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It provides the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP from 2018 to 2025 [63] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant to the director of the research institute and director of energy - chemical research. With more than ten years of experience in futures derivatives market research, she has won many awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises [67] - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping. She has won many industry awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry chain [68] - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester. She has won several awards and is good at data analysis and research on related varieties [69] - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, propylene, pure benzene, polyolefins, and PVC. He has a background in energy - chemical spot - futures trading and relevant professional qualifications [70]

CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年10月13日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：周五，本周主港主流在01贴水65附近成交，个别略低，零星宁波货在01-60附近商谈，价格商谈区间在4460~4530附 近。10月下在01贴水60~65有成交。今日主流现货基差在01-65。中性 2、基差：现货4450，01合约基差-49，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存4.22天，环比增加0.47天 偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，收盘价收于20日均线之下 偏空 5、主力持仓：净空 空增 偏空 6、预期：节后PTA现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差小幅走弱，部分PTA装置检修降幅叠加新装置投产推迟，PT ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pricing logic of PX, PTA, and PR is still cost - driven. With the weakening cost support due to the decline in crude oil prices, and the downstream peak season not yet showing signs of starting, the market is expected to repair the previous decline. PX, PTA, and PR are all expected to operate in a volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price Information - **Crude Oil**: On September 4, 2025, the futures settlement price (continuous) of WTI crude oil was $63.48 per barrel, down 0.77% from the previous value; that of Brent crude oil was $66.99 per barrel, down 0.90% [1]. - **Naphtha and Xylene**: The spot price (mid - price) of naphtha CFR Japan was $592.50 per ton, down 2.07%; the spot price (mid - price) of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB Korea was $687.00 per ton, down 0.07% [1]. - **PX**: The spot price of PX CFR China Main Port was $828.00 per ton on September 4, 2025, down 1.70%. The CZCE PX main - contract closing price was 6680 yuan per ton, down 1.91% [1]. - **PTA**: The CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4656 yuan per ton on September 4, 2025, down 1.61%. The spot price of domestic PTA was 4623 yuan per ton, down 2.06% [1]. - **PR**: The CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 5820 yuan per ton on September 4, 2025, down 1.22%. The market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5790 yuan per ton, down 1.19% [1]. Spread Information - **PXN Spread**: On September 4, 2025, it was $235.50 per ton, down 0.77% [1]. - **PX - MX Spread**: It was $141.00 per ton on September 4, 2025, down 8.93% [1]. - **Near - Far Month Spread and Basis**: For PTA, the near - far month spread was - 82 yuan per ton on September 4, 2025, a decrease of 20 yuan; the basis was - 41 yuan per ton, a decrease of 9 yuan. For PX, the basis was 57 yuan per ton, an increase of 130 yuan. For PR, the basis in the East China market was - 30 yuan per ton, an increase of 2 yuan; the basis in the South China market was 40 yuan per ton, a decrease of 8 yuan [1]. Operating Conditions - **PX**: The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain remained at 82.59% on September 4, 2025 [1]. - **PTA**: The PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories was 74.26%, that of polyester factories was 88.16% (up 0.17% from the previous value), that of bottle - chip factories was 73.27%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 64.56% (up 2.53% from the previous value) [1]. Production and Sales Information - **Polyester Filament**: The production - sales rate of polyester filament was 42.67% on September 4, 2025, down 8.16% from the previous value [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The production - sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 39.84% on September 4, 2025, down 1.35% from the previous value [1]. - **Polyester Chip**: The production - sales rate of polyester chips was 48.49% on September 4, 2025, up 3.01% from the previous value [1]. Device Information - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device of Jiaxing Petrochemical restarted on August 22. Two 5 - million - ton PTA devices of Hengli Huizhou unexpectedly shut down from August 21 to August 23, and the restart time is to be determined [2]. - Two 800,000 - ton PX devices in South China are postponed to restart next week, and the shutdown and maintenance plan of a 700,000 - ton PX device in the Northeast has not been implemented [2]. Important News - OPEC+ may consider further increasing oil production in the Sunday meeting to regain market share, leading to weakened supply expectations and a sharp drop in oil prices. The PX price decline has widened due to the significant drop in raw material prices and weak market sentiment [2]. - The decline in the crude oil market has weakened the cost support for PTA. With sufficient PTA supply and weak downstream production - sales, the PTA market has declined, and the basis has weakened [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market has a relatively stable supply, and downstream terminal demand is for replenishing stocks on a just - in - time basis, with acceptable trading sentiment [2].