Group 1 - Germany's June inflation rate unexpectedly fell to 2%, reaching the European Central Bank's target level for the first time in nearly a year, which is better than market expectations [1][3] - The harmonized CPI for June showed a year-on-year initial value of 2%, compared to expectations of 2.2% and a previous value of 2.1% [1][3] - The month-on-month initial value of the CPI for June was 0%, down from 0.2% in May and 0.1% in April [1][3] Group 2 - The ECB is expected to pause interest rate cuts in its July meeting, having lowered the deposit rate eight times since June 2024, currently standing at 2% [1] - ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos expressed concerns about the region's economic weakness potentially dragging down inflation, with growth expected to remain flat in the second and third quarters [2] - The overall inflation outlook for the Eurozone is generally favorable, with indications that inflation will stabilize around the ECB's medium-term target of 2% [2]

Economic Overview - The U.S. job market remains stable, with May non-farm payrolls increasing by 139,000, exceeding market expectations of 126,000[6] - The unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.24%, the highest since October 2021, while the labor participation rate fell to 62.4%[6] - In Europe, the Eurozone's HICP inflation rate dropped to 1.9% in May, below the expected 2%[17] Market Performance - Major stock markets saw gains last week (June 2-6, 2025): Hang Seng Index up 2.2%, S&P 500 up 1.5%, and emerging markets index up 1.9%[3] - Commodity prices rose significantly, with Brent oil futures increasing by 4.3% and the S&P-GSCI up 4.1%[3] Monetary Policy - The European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates by 25 basis points, marking the eighth reduction since June 2024, with current rates at 2.00% for deposit facilities[27] - The Federal Reserve remains cautious about rate cuts, with officials highlighting uncertainties related to tariffs and inflation risks[26] Inflation Expectations - U.S. inflation expectations have decreased, with 5-year expectations at 2.35% and 10-year expectations at 2.31%, both down 4 basis points from the previous week[14] - The ECB has revised down its CPI and GDP forecasts for 2025-2026, indicating a downward risk to economic growth[27]

德国财政政策迎重大转折。 当地时间3月22日，德国总统施泰因迈尔正式签署《基本法》修正案，为德国政府通过新增债务融资的庞大财政方案扫清了最后一道障碍。这项巨额财政计划 将为国防、基础设施和气候投资提供数千亿欧元资金。分析认为，今年屡创新高的德国股市，有望延续升势；而欧洲资产也有望继续受到投资者追捧。 STOXX50指数、德国DAX指数和法国CAC40指数走势（2025年） | 14 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 10 31 | 1 | 1 | 德国财政迎来重大转折 在德国联邦议院和联邦参议院先后于3月18日和3月21日批准后，施泰因迈尔于法案通过的第二天迅速完成了签署程序。根据总统府当天发布的声明，该法案 现在只需在《联邦法律公报》上公布，即可正式生效，进入执行阶段。 这一决定标志着德国财政政策迎来重大转折。 中信建投的报告认为，本轮财政将显著拉动德国GDP。在激进情形下，假设德国基础设施投资乘数1.5，国防支出投资乘数为0.6，州财政乘数为0.69。预计 2026年财政扩张对德国GDP拉动1.81%，德国进口增长5.14%。而在保守情形下，即财政支出乘数效应 ...