新华财经法兰克福12月31日电（记者尹亮）临近岁末，"繁荣不再"入选德国语言协会公布的2025年度十 大热词。连续两年经济萎缩，且长期面临增长乏力、美国关税压制、贸易挑战加剧等结构性困境，让这 个热词如同"时代精神"一般，精准捕捉了当下的德国经济状况与民众观感。 与此同时，随着德国新一届联邦政府就职，在财政扩张政策等多重因素刺激下，这个经济总量世界第 三、欧洲第一的"欧洲经济火车头"，正努力在繁荣难以为继的时代开启"艰难复苏"。 低增长、低投资、低信心成为德国经济"新常态" 2023年、2024年德国国内生产总值连续负增长，是德国近20年来绝无仅有的糟糕局面。破解经济持续不 振，成为2025年德国经济的主基调。 今年一季度，得益于美国加征关税之前的"出口前置"及通胀回落后消费信心增长等因素，德国国内生产 总值环比增长0.4%，成为2022年第三季度以来德国经济表现最强的季度。第二季度，德国经济没能延 续一季度的增长态势，受美国关税重创出口的影响，国内生产总值环比下降0.3%。 今夏欧洲央行停止降息后，经济不确定性有所减缓，公众对德国经济增长预期一度较为乐观。然而第三 季度，虽然固定资本投资有所增长，但外贸出口 ...

中金研究 今年一季度德国超万亿欧元的财政转型引起市场关注。年初至今，5000亿欧元特别基金的投资计划，2025年及2026年的联邦财政预算相继公布，本文 旨在追踪德国财政的最新进展情况。 2025年联邦预算的细节： 2025年联邦预算 已于9月通过（之前按临时预算运行），总体来看，2025年预算内支出将大幅增长，并带动预算内赤字较去年跳 升（从2024年的0.6%上升至1.8%）。同时新专项基金推动预算外支出增长，总联邦支出将达到5640亿欧元（同比+17%），总国防支出将达到940亿欧元 （同比+27%），总投资支出达到近1160亿欧元（同比+55%）。 然而截至10月，投资和国防支出进展不及预期： 2025年1-10月，预算内层面看，联邦政府预算内赤字达到全年目标的81%，但预算外支出的进展偏慢。其 中，市场关注的投资和国防层面进度慢于政府消费端支出。预算内投资支出的进度为70%，预算外的专项基金（SV IK）从10月起正式完成法律程序，10 月完成借款进度34%。国防支出方面，总国防支出目前也只到全年目标的61%。但边际变化上，德国财政部最新报告显示10月份预算内支出有所加快，赤 字完成度上升20个百分 ...

Group 1 - Germany is preparing to launch a €100 billion (approximately $116 billion) investment fund aimed at ensuring security in defense, energy, and critical raw materials sectors [1] - The German government plans to initially inject at least €10 billion into the fund, with a goal of leveraging up to ten times that amount in private capital [1][5] - The new government under Chancellor Merz is focusing on fiscal stimulus and has relaxed the "debt brake" to facilitate significant investment initiatives [4] Group 2 - Germany's international competitiveness has significantly declined due to inadequate infrastructure, education, and digital infrastructure, with estimated investment shortfalls ranging from €400 billion to €600 billion (10% to 15% of GDP) [2] - The government’s investment fund will prioritize improving energy infrastructure, revitalizing the defense industry, and supporting small and medium-sized enterprises [2][3] - The recent industrial output data shows a decline, with June's industrial production hitting a five-year low, indicating ongoing economic challenges [1][8] Group 3 - The investment initiative is part of a broader strategy outlined in a coalition agreement and is seen as essential for enhancing Germany's competitiveness [3] - The government aims to attract private investment into sectors that typically see less interest from investors, such as infrastructure and small businesses [5] - The success of the investment fund heavily relies on corporate participation, as companies have been cautious in their investment decisions amid economic uncertainty [6][7] Group 4 - Recent economic data indicates a mixed outlook, with a slight GDP growth in Q1 2023 followed by a decline in industrial output, raising concerns about a potential return to negative growth [8][9] - The U.S. tariff policies are creating significant uncertainty in global trade, impacting Germany's economic outlook and potentially leading to a GDP reduction of 0.5% this year [9] - The German government is optimistic about its economic measures, but the reliance on exports and the impact of U.S. tariffs pose substantial risks [8][9]

Group 1 - Germany's President Steinmeier signed a constitutional amendment to relax the "debt brake" restrictions, allowing the federal government to establish a special fund of €500 billion for infrastructure projects without being constrained by debt limits [1] - The reform is viewed as a fiscal cornerstone for the new German government, with expectations that large-scale fiscal spending will stimulate economic growth and create more jobs, enhancing Germany's economic competitiveness [1] - Goldman Sachs and Nomura Securities predict that this move will boost Germany's economic growth, positively impacting other European countries as well [1] Group 2 - Germany's economy has faced challenges, with GDP contracting by 0.2% in Q4 2024 and a year-on-year decline of 0.2%, marking the second consecutive year of negative growth [2] - Key sectors such as manufacturing saw a 3% decline in output, particularly in machinery and automotive industries, while service sectors experienced a modest growth of 0.8% [2] - Domestic household consumption increased slightly by 0.3%, with notable growth in health and transportation sectors, rising by 2.8% and 2.1% respectively [2] Group 3 - Forecasts indicate a gradual recovery for the German economy starting this year, with the Munich Institute for Economic Research reporting an increase in the business climate index from 85.3 to 86.7 in March [3] - The IMF predicts a 0.3% growth in Germany's GDP for 2025, while the European Commission expects domestic demand to rebound, projecting GDP growth of 0.7% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026 [3] - Germany's inflation rate has been declining, dropping from a peak of 11.6% in October 2022 to 2.4% in October 2024, contributing to positive economic outlooks [3] Group 4 - The German central bank's president, Nagel, expressed concerns about increased uncertainty for the German economy due to U.S. tariffs on EU steel and aluminum imports, suggesting a potential for recession in 2025 [4]

德国财政政策迎重大转折。 当地时间3月22日，德国总统施泰因迈尔正式签署《基本法》修正案，为德国政府通过新增债务融资的庞大财政方案扫清了最后一道障碍。这项巨额财政计划 将为国防、基础设施和气候投资提供数千亿欧元资金。分析认为，今年屡创新高的德国股市，有望延续升势；而欧洲资产也有望继续受到投资者追捧。 STOXX50指数、德国DAX指数和法国CAC40指数走势（2025年） | 14 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 10 31 | 1 | 1 | 德国财政迎来重大转折 在德国联邦议院和联邦参议院先后于3月18日和3月21日批准后，施泰因迈尔于法案通过的第二天迅速完成了签署程序。根据总统府当天发布的声明，该法案 现在只需在《联邦法律公报》上公布，即可正式生效，进入执行阶段。 这一决定标志着德国财政政策迎来重大转折。 中信建投的报告认为，本轮财政将显著拉动德国GDP。在激进情形下，假设德国基础设施投资乘数1.5，国防支出投资乘数为0.6，州财政乘数为0.69。预计 2026年财政扩张对德国GDP拉动1.81%，德国进口增长5.14%。而在保守情形下，即财政支出乘数效应 ...