21世纪经济报道记者 赖镇桃报道 默茨"新官"上任不久，刚有起色的德国经济，突又遭遇美国关税重锤。内外交困下，德国新政府再开 启"撒钱"模式。 当地时间8月6日，据媒体报道，德国正准备启动一项1000亿欧元（1160亿美元）的投资基金，以帮助确 保国防、能源和关键原材料等战略领域的安全。 根据德国经济部的声明，政府将为该基金初步注资至少100亿欧元，目标是撬动最多10倍规模的私人资 本。 受访专家关注到，德国新总理默茨上任不到百日，就在财政刺激上大下苦功，松绑"债务刹车"，官宣一 个又一个千亿级基金和企业投资计划。另据新华社报道，德国财政部7月30日宣布，联邦内阁已批准 2026年联邦预算草案，公共投资被列为政府财政政策重点，投资规模再创历史新高。 但是，德国已经连续两年GDP负增长，叠加今年全球贸易逆风，最新的6月工业产出创下五年来新低， 默茨猛扎投资"强心针"，能否力挽狂澜？ 向"老大难"开刀 一定程度上，年初默茨赢得德国大选后，力推"债务刹车"松绑，也为政府砸钱投资提供条件。 上海外国语大学欧洲研究所执行所长胡春春告诉21世纪经济报道记者，过去几年，德国商界、智库等各 界人士都强调要加大投资，上一任德国 ...

Group 1 - Germany's President Steinmeier signed a constitutional amendment to relax the "debt brake" restrictions, allowing the federal government to establish a special fund of €500 billion for infrastructure projects without being constrained by debt limits [1] - The reform is viewed as a fiscal cornerstone for the new German government, with expectations that large-scale fiscal spending will stimulate economic growth and create more jobs, enhancing Germany's economic competitiveness [1] - Goldman Sachs and Nomura Securities predict that this move will boost Germany's economic growth, positively impacting other European countries as well [1] Group 2 - Germany's economy has faced challenges, with GDP contracting by 0.2% in Q4 2024 and a year-on-year decline of 0.2%, marking the second consecutive year of negative growth [2] - Key sectors such as manufacturing saw a 3% decline in output, particularly in machinery and automotive industries, while service sectors experienced a modest growth of 0.8% [2] - Domestic household consumption increased slightly by 0.3%, with notable growth in health and transportation sectors, rising by 2.8% and 2.1% respectively [2] Group 3 - Forecasts indicate a gradual recovery for the German economy starting this year, with the Munich Institute for Economic Research reporting an increase in the business climate index from 85.3 to 86.7 in March [3] - The IMF predicts a 0.3% growth in Germany's GDP for 2025, while the European Commission expects domestic demand to rebound, projecting GDP growth of 0.7% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026 [3] - Germany's inflation rate has been declining, dropping from a peak of 11.6% in October 2022 to 2.4% in October 2024, contributing to positive economic outlooks [3] Group 4 - The German central bank's president, Nagel, expressed concerns about increased uncertainty for the German economy due to U.S. tariffs on EU steel and aluminum imports, suggesting a potential for recession in 2025 [4]

德国财政政策迎重大转折。 当地时间3月22日，德国总统施泰因迈尔正式签署《基本法》修正案，为德国政府通过新增债务融资的庞大财政方案扫清了最后一道障碍。这项巨额财政计划 将为国防、基础设施和气候投资提供数千亿欧元资金。分析认为，今年屡创新高的德国股市，有望延续升势；而欧洲资产也有望继续受到投资者追捧。 STOXX50指数、德国DAX指数和法国CAC40指数走势（2025年） | 14 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 10 31 | 1 | 1 | 德国财政迎来重大转折 在德国联邦议院和联邦参议院先后于3月18日和3月21日批准后，施泰因迈尔于法案通过的第二天迅速完成了签署程序。根据总统府当天发布的声明，该法案 现在只需在《联邦法律公报》上公布，即可正式生效，进入执行阶段。 这一决定标志着德国财政政策迎来重大转折。 中信建投的报告认为，本轮财政将显著拉动德国GDP。在激进情形下，假设德国基础设施投资乘数1.5，国防支出投资乘数为0.6，州财政乘数为0.69。预计 2026年财政扩张对德国GDP拉动1.81%，德国进口增长5.14%。而在保守情形下，即财政支出乘数效应 ...