Metal Market - As of the midday close, domestic base metals showed positive performance with Shanghai aluminum up 0.48%, copper up 0.59%, zinc up 0.36%, lead up 0.24%, while nickel fell 0.17% and tin rose 0.56% [1] - In the futures market, casting aluminum main contract rose 0.47%, alumina main contract rose 0.41%, lithium carbonate main contract rose 0.29%, and industrial silicon main contract continued its previous day's upward trend with a rise of 1.64% [1] - The black metal sector experienced a general decline, with iron ore down 1.18%, rebar down 0.71%, and stainless steel down 0.39% [1] Foreign Metal Market - As of 11:39, LME metals showed mixed results with copper down 0.16%, nickel down 0.3%, and tin down 0.31%, while aluminum rose 0.13% [1] - In precious metals, COMEX gold fell 0.27% and silver fell 0.06%, while Shanghai gold main contract fell 0.26% and Shanghai silver main contract rose 0.2% [1] Futures Market - The Euro line shipping main contract fell 4.08%, closing at 1219 points [2][3] - Various futures showed specific price movements, such as industrial silicon main contract up 1.64% and copper main contract up 0.59% [3] Spot Market and Fundamentals - In the copper market, Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper spot price showed a premium of 0-60 CNY/ton against the current month contract, with an average premium of 30 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton from the previous trading day [4] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net injection of 794 billion CNY through reverse repos, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40% [4] Oil Market - As of 11:39, both WTI and Brent crude oil futures showed slight declines, with WTI down 0.11% and Brent down 0.1% [7] - The EIA reported an increase in U.S. crude oil inventories by 3.9 million barrels, contrary to analyst expectations of a decrease [7]

Core Viewpoint - Traders maintain their bets on the European Central Bank's interest rates, expecting a further reduction of 22 basis points in 2025 [1] Group 1 - The current market sentiment indicates stability in interest rate expectations from the European Central Bank [1] - The anticipated rate cut of 22 basis points in 2025 reflects ongoing economic considerations and potential adjustments in monetary policy [1]

Group 1: US Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley indicates that the upcoming non-farm payroll report may reignite concerns about US economic growth, with expectations of a 110,000 increase in employment for June, down from 139,000 in May, and an anticipated rise in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.3% [1] - UBS notes that the 20% tariffs imposed by the US on Vietnamese goods are at the lower end of expectations, and the details of the trade agreement will be crucial for assessing its economic impact on Vietnam [2] - DBS Bank suggests that while the US-Vietnam trade agreement reduces risks for Vietnam's economic growth, it may not prevent a slowdown in the coming quarters due to a lack of details in the agreement [2] Group 2: Currency and Inflation - ING predicts that the dollar may experience a temporary rebound as tariffs drive inflation, potentially delaying interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - The report anticipates that the euro to dollar exchange rate may briefly fall to the 1.13-1.15 range, and the yen to dollar rate may drop to 145-150, indicating a decline of about 4% for both currencies [3] Group 3: US Debt and Interest Rates - Capital Economics forecasts challenges for US Treasury bonds for the remainder of the year, despite recent strong performance, as the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts may hinder further gains [4] - The report highlights that Fed Chair Powell's comments suggest a reluctance to cut rates until there is clear evidence of economic stability [4] Group 4: European Economic Policy - ANZ Bank expects the European Central Bank to be close to the bottom of its interest rate cycle, predicting a 25 basis point cut in September [5] - The ECB has reduced rates by 200 basis points over the past year, and the current neutral policy rate range is estimated to be between 1.50% and 2.50% [5] Group 5: Chinese Market Insights - Guotai Junan Securities believes that the Chinese stock market has upward potential due to domestic innovation and a decrease in risk-free rates, with a shift in the RMB's depreciation expectations to stability or slight appreciation [6] - CITIC Securities reports a significant divergence in the monetary policy stance among the 12 voting members of the Federal Reserve, which may influence future policy decisions [7] Group 6: Nuclear Power and Technology - CITIC Securities anticipates a new wave of nuclear power construction globally, driven by the need for stable clean energy and the recovery of the nuclear industry [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of nuclear power in energy transition and carbon neutrality efforts, with China leading in newly approved nuclear units [8] Group 7: Investment Opportunities in Technology - CITIC Securities recommends focusing on AI-related investment opportunities, particularly in AI agents and computing power sectors, as the computer industry is expected to see steady growth [9] - The report highlights the potential for structural opportunities in various technology sectors, including cross-border payments and industrial software [9]