Core Viewpoint - The current interest rate level maintained by the European Central Bank (ECB) is deemed valuable, indicating a shift away from the era of easily adjusting rates [1] Economic Context - The euro is currently near its historical average, but close monitoring is necessary [1] - There remains untapped economic potential within the region [1] - The extensive easing policies previously implemented by the ECB continue to have an impact on the economy [1] Policy Stance - The ECB's current robust policy approach is considered appropriate for the economic conditions [1] - The era of straightforward interest rate hikes or cuts has concluded, suggesting a more complex decision-making environment ahead [1]

Core Viewpoint - The era of directly deciding on interest rate hikes or cuts has ended, indicating a shift in the European Central Bank's (ECB) approach to monetary policy [1] Group 1 - The ECB's many easing policies are still having an impact on the economy, suggesting that previous measures continue to influence economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD pair is experiencing a persistent bearish bias, facing resistance around 1.1680, while the dollar remains resilient amid active trade prospects and mixed signals from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regarding interest rate cuts [2][3][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Euro/USD pair showed instability around the 1.1700 region, retreating to a two-week low between 1.1690 and 1.1680 before regaining momentum later in the day [3]. - Geopolitical and trade uncertainties are keeping investors cautious, with recent U.S. tariffs on Japanese and South Korean goods reigniting broader trade conflict concerns, which in turn strengthens the dollar [4]. - Investors remain cautious about a potential U.S.-EU trade agreement, despite both sides emphasizing the necessity of reaching an accord without significant progress [5]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% in June, raising inflation and employment forecasts, with a potential rate cut of about 50 basis points by year-end [6]. - The FOMC meeting minutes revealed a split among officials regarding a July rate cut, with most expressing concerns over inflation risks from tariffs, yet agreeing on the need for a rate cut later in the year [6]. Group 3: Speculative Positions and Data Outlook - Speculative long positions in the Euro have slightly weakened to approximately 107.5K contracts, while commercial participants have reduced their net short positions to 160.6K contracts [7]. - Key Eurozone data is anticipated, including the final June inflation rate on July 10, followed by the EMU current account data and German wholesale prices on July 11 [8]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Initial resistance for the Euro/USD is at the 2025 high of 1.1830, followed by peaks from September 2018 and June 2018 [9]. - Initial support is at the 55-day simple moving average of 1.1441, with further support levels at 1.1210 and 1.1064, and a psychological level at 1.1000 [9]. - Momentum indicators remain positive, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 62 indicating bullish conditions, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) is around 32, suggesting a strengthening trend [9]. Group 5: Mid-term Outlook - The Euro/USD pair appears poised to resume its upward trend unless new geopolitical or macroeconomic shocks occur, supported by easing risk aversion and the prospect of Fed rate cuts [11]. - Ongoing trade tensions and unpredictable tariff policies from President Trump may limit upside potential in the coming months [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The U.S. economic data shows resilience recently, with the May non - farm payrolls exceeding expectations, the April inflation data below expectations, and the Fed maintaining policy independence. Gold prices are in a state of oscillatory adjustment. The strong employment data and existing inflation risks provide policy space for the Fed to postpone interest rate cuts. The Fed's May FOMC meeting maintained a hawkish stance. The market expects the Fed to cut rates in September but has lowered the expected rate - cut amplitude. Considering the repeated expectations of U.S. tariff policies and market concerns about the U.S. fiscal situation and geopolitical prospects, prices are expected to continue oscillating and adjusting, with a mid - term bullish outlook [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Due to the U.S. May non - farm payrolls exceeding expectations and the market lowering the expected rate - cut amplitude, the price of U.S. gold slightly corrected. As of last Friday, U.S. gold closed at $3331 per ounce, up 0.5% for the week. The upper resistance level is $3390, and the lower support level is $3280 [6]. - The price of U.S. silver rose to catch up. As of last Friday, it had a weekly increase of 9.2%, closing at $36.13 per ounce. The lower support level is $34.5, and the upper resistance level is $37 [9]. 3.2 Weekly View - The U.S. May non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, the Fed maintained policy independence, the April inflation data was below expectations, and recent U.S. economic data showed resilience, leading to an oscillatory adjustment of gold prices. The strong employment data and inflation risks provide policy space for the Fed to postpone interest rate cuts. The Fed's May FOMC meeting maintained a hawkish stance, and Powell said that tariffs might have a lasting impact on inflation and that the Fed needs to wait for the situation to become clear before considering rate cuts. The ECB cut rates by 25 basis points as expected in April. The market expects the Fed to cut rates in September and has lowered the expected rate - cut amplitude. Due to the repeated expectations of U.S. tariff policies and market concerns about the U.S. fiscal situation and geopolitical prospects, prices are expected to continue oscillating and adjusting, with a mid - term bullish outlook. It is recommended to pay attention to the U.S. May year - on - year inflation data to be released on Wednesday [10]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators There is no specific text - based summary information provided in the content, only some data charts are presented. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week | Economic Indicator | Announced Value | Expected Value | Previous Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | U.S. May non - farm payrolls change, seasonally adjusted (in millions) | 13.9 | 13 | 14.7 | | U.S. May unemployment rate (%) | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | | U.S. May ADP employment change (in millions) | 3.7 | 11 | 6.2 | | U.S. April durable goods orders monthly rate revision (%) | - 6.3 | - | - 6.3 | [20] 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - The U.S. May non - farm payrolls increased by 1.39 million, higher than the expected 1.3 million, and the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%. However, the average hourly wage increased by 0.4% month - on - month, higher than expected and the previous value, indicating an upward risk of inflation. The strong employment data and inflation risks provide policy space for the Fed to postpone interest rate cuts. After the release of the non - farm data, the market lowered the expected rate - cut amplitude, expecting the annual rate - cut to be less than 50 basis points [21]. - The ECB cut rates by 25 basis points as expected but hinted that its one - year easing cycle would pause after the inflation rate finally reached the central bank's 2% target. Since last June, the ECB has cut rates eight times. Currently, the inflation rate in the eurozone is slightly below 2%, and ECB President Lagarde said the bank is in a "good position," leading investors to believe that even if the easing policy is not ended, rate cuts will pause [21]. - Representatives of the U.S. and the EU said that the bilateral trade negotiations are progressing rapidly. The new U.S. metal tariffs have disrupted the global economy again, increasing the urgency of the negotiations. U.S. President Trump's measure to double the import tariffs on steel and aluminum took effect on Wednesday. On the same day, the U.S. asked its trading partners to submit "best offers" to avoid other punitive tariffs from taking effect in July [21]. 3.6 Inventory - For gold, this week, Comex inventory decreased by 20,897.20 kg to 1,185,582.5 kg, and SHFE inventory increased by 600 kg to 17,847 kg. - For silver, this week, Comex inventory decreased by 40,062.53 kg to 15,387,521.69 kg, and SHFE inventory increased by 51,055 kg to 1,117,940 kg [12][26]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of June 3, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 191,433 contracts, an increase of 14,371 contracts from last week. - As of June 3, the net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 59,230 contracts, an increase of 8,616 contracts from last week [12][31]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Wednesday (June 11) at 20:30, the U.S. May year - on - year inflation data will be released. - On Thursday (June 12) at 20:30, the U.S. May PPI year - on - year data and the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending June 7 will be announced. - On Friday (June 13) at 22:00, the preliminary value of the U.S. June University of Michigan consumer confidence index will be released [33].