高盛不再预期欧洲央行年内降息 金十数据7月25日讯，高盛：不再预计欧洲央行会在2025年下调存款利率，此前预测9月将下调25个基 点；预计2025年终端存款利率将保持在2%，此前预测为1.75%。 ...

欧元区货币市场降低了对欧洲央行9月降息的预期，目前预计降息幅度约为5个基点，稍早时为8个基 点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has postponed its expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates, now predicting a rate cut in September instead of July [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - Citigroup expects the ECB to maintain interest rates this month and to cut rates in September, adjusting its previous forecast which anticipated a cut in the upcoming meeting [1] - The bank continues to predict two rate cuts by the ECB this year, now scheduled for September and December, rather than the previously expected July and September [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - According to LSEG data, the eurozone money market currently shows low probability for a rate cut before December [1]

Core Viewpoint - The currency market has reduced expectations for a rate cut by the European Central Bank, now anticipating a decrease of approximately 25 basis points by the end of the year, down from a previous expectation of 30 basis points [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Interest Rate Expectations** - The market now predicts a 25 basis point rate cut by the European Central Bank by year-end, a revision from the earlier forecast of 30 basis points [1]

Core Points - Eurozone inflation in May was weaker than expected, leading to a slight increase in expectations for an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank in July [1] - The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point cut on Thursday, with a 31% probability for further cuts in July, up from 28% previously [1] - The overall inflation rate in the Eurozone dropped from 2.2% in April to 1.9% in May, exceeding expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - Traders have increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB), now anticipating three additional cuts in 2025 [1] Group 1 - The market sentiment has shifted towards a more dovish outlook regarding the ECB's monetary policy [1] - The expectation of rate cuts reflects concerns about economic growth and inflation dynamics in the Eurozone [1] - Analysts are closely monitoring economic indicators that could influence the ECB's decision-making process in the coming years [1]

Group 1 - The eurozone benchmark German government bond yield has risen to a one-month high, indicating a significant decrease in market expectations for an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) [2] - ECB Governing Council member Schnabel stated that the central bank should stop cutting rates due to rising price pressures from global economic turmoil, with inflation potentially exceeding the 2% target in the medium term [2] - The market anticipates the ECB's deposit rate in December to be 1.75%, higher than previous expectations of 1.55% to 1.67% [2] Group 2 - The euro to USD exchange rate is facing strong resistance at 1.1570 and is currently testing key trend support, with downside risks accumulating near the 50-day moving average at 1.1070 [3] - The currency pair has formed a series of lower highs and lows over the past month, indicating a weakening upward momentum, confirmed by the daily MACD indicator [3] - If the support at the 50-day moving average around 1.1070 is breached, further declines may occur, targeting the range of the March high of 1.1025 to 1.0950 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that expectations for a rate cut by the European Central Bank have decreased, with the year-end deposit rate now projected to be 1.75%, up from 1.67% last Friday [1]