新华财经北京2月26日电欧洲央行行长拉加德26日在欧盟议会发表讲话时表示，预计欧元区通胀将在中 期内稳定在2%的目标水平。对于近期欧元波动引发的通胀担忧，拉加德表示，欧洲央行正在监控汇 率，而非设定汇率目标。 拉加德再次强调，欧洲央行已成功控制住了消费价格，但她同时提醒称，政策制定者必须密切关注人们 所感知到的高通胀。她表示，"官员们将在中期实现2%的通胀目标。然而，尽管通胀已经下降，但调查 结果显示，许多民众仍感觉物价上涨的速度比官方数据所显示的要快。"根据最新的消费者预期调查， 欧元区民众所感知到的通胀率高于实际数据。这可能会对私人消费产生负面影响，并导致更高的工资要 求，从而使央行维持物价稳定和促进经济增长的任务变得更加艰巨。 欧洲央行官员近期表态显示，下一次利率调整将具有"完全的灵活性"，暂未有短期内调整政策的意向。 拉加德重申，应维持政策调整取决于数据的做法。 拉加德还预计，在劳动力市场保持韧性、劳动收入不断增长以及基础设施投资的推动下，欧元区经济活 动将得到支撑。 另外，近期市场猜测拉加德可能会在今年辞职，拉加德对此表示，基本预期是任期届满再离任（其任期 将于明年10月结束）。 （文章来源：新华财 ...

Monex Europe分析师在一份报告中表示，欧元的基本面环境看起来相对有利，但其走势仍然受外部因素 驱动。他们表示，欧洲央行似乎乐见利率维持不变，欧元区通胀正在放缓，周五的采购经理人指数数据 也表明制造业正在企稳。"尽管如此，欧元仍然受外部因素牵制，尤其是在短期内欧元区内部经济日程 清淡的情况下，"这些分析师表示。他们表示，欧元兑美元暂时应会继续在当前水平附近交投。欧元持 平，报1.1784美元。 Monex Europe分析师在一份报告中表示，欧元的基本面环境看起来相对有利，但其走势仍然受外部因素 驱动。他们表示，欧洲央行似乎乐见利率维持不变，欧元区通胀正在放缓，周五的采购经理人指数数据 也表明制造业正在企稳。"尽管如此，欧元仍然受外部因素牵制，尤其是在短期内欧元区内部经济日程 清淡的情况下，"这些分析师表示。他们表示，欧元兑美元暂时应会继续在当前水平附近交投。欧元持 平，报1.1784美元。 责任编辑：何云 责任编辑：何云 ...

据知情人士称，拉加德希望为即将卸任的法国总统埃马纽埃尔・马克龙（Emmanuel Macron）与德国总 理弗里德里希・默茨（Friedrich Merz）留出空间，为欧盟这一最重要机构之一寻找新行长。拉加德具 体何时离职尚不清楚。欧洲央行拒绝置评。 英国《金融时报》去年12月调查的欧洲经济学家认为，西班牙前央行行长巴勃罗・埃尔南德斯・德科斯 （Pablo Hernández deCos）与荷兰央行行长克拉斯・诺特（Klaas Knot）是下任欧洲央行行长的最热 门人选。欧洲央行执委会成员伊莎贝尔・施纳贝尔（Isabel Schnabel）已表示对该职位感兴趣，而了解 德国央行行长约阿希姆・纳格尔（Joachim Nagel）想法的人士称，他也有意角逐这一职位。 了解巴黎会谈的人士向《金融时报》透露，无法寻求第三次连任的法国总统马克龙，数月来一直希望在 选择拉加德继任者一事上拥有话语权。 尽管勒庞去年因挪用欧洲议会资金被判有罪，可能失去作为"国民联盟"候选人参选的资格，但她表示， 其门徒乔丹・巴德拉（Jordan Bardella）将在这种情况下代为参选。 据《金融报告》报道，了解拉加德想法的消息人士透露，她 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to maintain the deposit rate at 2.15% for the fifth consecutive time, indicating a stable economic outlook despite recent euro appreciation [1][5]. Group 1: ECB's Monetary Policy - ECB officials, including Yannis Stournaras, emphasize that the current euro exchange rate is stable and does not warrant a change in policy direction [1][5]. - Christine Lagarde reiterated that the economy is in a good state and downplayed the impact of the recent euro appreciation [5]. - The consensus among ECB policymakers is that the current interest rates will remain unchanged following eight previous rate cuts [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The eurozone's GDP expanded by 0.3% in the fourth quarter, outperforming market expectations, supported by increased government spending [6]. - The latest inflation rate in the eurozone dropped to 1.7%, which may strengthen the voices advocating for a more accommodative policy within the ECB [6]. - ECB forecasts suggest inflation will return to the 2% target by 2028, although current inflation trends may lead to ongoing debates about policy direction [6]. Group 3: Risks and Outlook - Potential risks include unpredictable U.S. trade policies and factors such as weak economic expansion and wage growth, which could lead to inflation falling below expectations [6]. - Analysts expect a slight increase in growth rates for 2026 due to better-than-expected economic performance at the end of last year [9]. - Stournaras described the current economic situation as a "stable equilibrium," indicating a successful soft landing for the eurozone economy [9].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to maintain key interest rates unchanged, signaling a cautious approach to monetary policy despite recent inflation data indicating a decline below target levels [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - On February 5, the ECB kept the eurozone's three key interest rates steady at 2.00% for the deposit facility rate, 2.15% for the main refinancing rate, and 2.40% for the marginal lending rate, marking the fifth consecutive month of maintaining this stance since July of the previous year [1]. - ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized the importance of a data-driven approach to policy decisions, indicating that the ECB aims to retain flexibility in future monetary policy [1][4]. Group 2: Inflation Data - The eurozone's inflation rate fell to 1.7% in January, down from 2.0% in December and 2.1% in November, marking the lowest level since September 2024 and breaching the 2% policy threshold [2]. - Core inflation, excluding volatile items like energy and food, decreased to 2.2%, the lowest since October 2021, while service sector inflation slowed to 3.2% [2]. - Lagarde downplayed concerns over excessive deflation, attributing the decline in inflation primarily to base effects and reaffirming that the overall inflation data does not alter the ECB's medium-term inflation expectations [2]. Group 3: Currency and Economic Outlook - Lagarde praised Bulgaria's progress towards joining the eurozone, highlighting it as a testament to the enduring benefits of the single currency and European integration [3]. - The ECB acknowledged ongoing uncertainties related to global trade policies and geopolitical tensions but maintained that medium-term inflation is expected to stabilize around the 2% target [2]. - The ECB is closely monitoring the recent depreciation of the US dollar, which has implications for the eurozone economy, but Lagarde noted that there have not been significant fluctuations in exchange rates recently [4].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to maintain its three key interest rates unchanged, indicating a stable economic outlook despite ongoing global trade and geopolitical risks. The ECB anticipates that inflation in the Eurozone will stabilize around the 2% target level in the medium term [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rates - The ECB has kept the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40% [1]. Group 2: Economic Conditions - The ECB's assessment highlights low unemployment rates, robust private sector balance sheets, and increasing public spending in defense and infrastructure as key factors supporting Eurozone economic growth [2]. - The ECB expects inflation rates to return to target levels in the medium term, with the overall trend of inflation cooling aligning with expectations [2]. Group 3: Inflation Data - Eurozone inflation has continued to decline, with the annual inflation rate dropping to 1.7% in January, marking the lowest level since September 2024 and falling below the ECB's 2% medium-term inflation target for the first time [2]. - Month-on-month consumer prices decreased by 0.5% in January, representing the largest single-month decline since November 2023 [2]. - Core inflation, excluding volatile items like energy and food, fell slightly from 2.3% to 2.2%, reaching the lowest level since October 2021, indicating reduced inflationary stickiness [2]. - Price trends across categories show a moderation in service price increases to an annual rate of 3.2%, while food, alcohol, and tobacco prices rose slightly to 2.7%. Energy prices significantly contributed to the decline in overall inflation, dropping by 4.1% in January [2].

Group 1 - The Democratic Party is seeking to delay the nomination process for the Federal Reserve Chair nominee, Kevin Warsh, until the criminal investigation into current Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed governors is concluded, although the committee chair Tim Scott believes Warsh's confirmation is highly likely [1] - The Federal Reserve announced that it will not adjust the capital levels of large banks during the 2026 stress test cycle and is considering multiple reforms to enhance transparency in the annual test [1] - The U.S. Treasury Department plans to maintain the current issuance scale of medium- and long-term bonds, with a total of $125 billion in bonds to be issued this quarter, including $58 billion in 3-year, $42 billion in 10-year, and $25 billion in 30-year Treasury bonds [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the January non-farm employment report on February 11, with the ADP reporting only 22,000 new jobs in January, significantly below the expected 48,000 [2] - The ISM Services PMI index for January slightly decreased to 53.8, but still exceeded market expectations, indicating a slowdown in new orders and a contraction in export orders [2] - The Eurozone's January CPI rose only 1.7% year-on-year, the lowest level since September 2024, with core CPI dropping to 2.2%, the lowest since October 2021 [2] Group 3 - The UK National Institute of Economic and Social Research has raised its 2026 economic growth forecast for the UK from 1.2% to 1.4%, indicating the economy is nearing a normal state [3] - South Korea's foreign exchange reserves decreased for the second consecutive month in January, totaling $425.91 billion, down by $2.15 billion from the previous month due to government efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market [3] Group 4 - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up 0.53% at 49,501.3 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 0.51% and 1.51%, respectively [4] Group 5 - U.S. oil futures rose by 1.99% to $64.47 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by 2.09% to $68.74 per barrel [5] - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.04% at $4,986.40 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 5.36% at $87.77 per ounce [5] - U.S. Treasury yields were mixed, with the 10-year yield rising by 0.8 basis points to 4.274% and the 30-year yield increasing by 2.38 basis points to 4.918% [5] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.25% to 97.63, while most non-U.S. currencies declined against the dollar [5]

Group 1 - Eurozone inflation has further declined, with the consumer price index (CPI) rising only 1.7% year-on-year in January, down from 1.9% the previous month, marking the lowest level since September 2024 [1][4] - The core inflation rate, excluding volatile food and energy prices, unexpectedly dropped to 2.2%, the lowest since October 2021, while the service sector inflation rate slowed to 3.2% [1][4] - Economists widely expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain borrowing costs at 2% for the fifth consecutive time during the upcoming monetary policy meeting [1][4] Group 2 - In the Eurozone, inflation rates vary among member countries, with Germany's inflation at approximately 2.1%, slightly above expectations, while France recorded an unexpected low of 0.4%, the lowest in five years [5] - The decline in inflation in France is attributed to a significant drop in manufactured goods prices, particularly in clothing and footwear, driven by seasonal discounts and increased domestic sales due to export challenges [8] - Economists predict that the ECB will likely keep interest rates unchanged throughout 2026, with a small probability of rate cuts unless inflation remains persistently below target and service/wage growth slows significantly [9]

Core Viewpoint - Eurozone inflation has dropped to 1.7%, below the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2%, leading to expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged at 2% for the fifth consecutive time [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation Data - The Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by only 1.7% year-on-year in January, down from 1.9% in the previous month, marking the lowest level since September 2024 [1]. - The core inflation rate, excluding volatile food and energy prices, unexpectedly fell to 2.2%, the lowest since October 2021 [1]. - Service sector inflation has also slowed to 3.2%, indicating a broader decline in price pressures across the Eurozone [1]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Market expectations suggest that both this year's and next year's CPI will remain below the ECB's target, positioning policymakers favorably, although concerns about prolonged low inflation persist [2]. - The Eurozone's economic growth in Q4 2025 was slightly above expectations at 0.3%, but ongoing uncertainties, such as potential tariffs from the U.S., pose risks to growth [3]. - In the Eurozone's 21 member states, inflation rates vary significantly, with Germany at approximately 2.1% and France unexpectedly at a five-year low of 0.4% [2]. Group 3: ECB Policy Expectations - The prevailing expectation among economists is that the ECB will maintain interest rates at 2% throughout 2026, with a small probability of rate cuts unless inflation remains persistently below target [4]. - Recent surveys indicate that nearly 75% of Eurozone economists believe rates will stay unchanged until the end of 2026 [4].

Core Insights - Eurozone inflation rate fell to its lowest level since September 2024, dropping to 1.7% in January, below the ECB's target of 2% [1] - The core CPI decreased from 2.3% to 2.2%, and service sector CPI slowed to 3.2%, indicating easing price pressures across multiple sectors [1] - The inflation trends vary significantly among EU member states, with Germany at 2.1% and France unexpectedly dropping to 0.4%, a five-year low [1] Group 1 - The ECB is expected to maintain the key interest rate at 2% for the fifth consecutive time, reaffirming its assessment that monetary policy is "in a good place" [1] - Despite forecasts of inflation remaining below 2% this year and next, some policymakers express concerns about the risk of prolonged low inflation [2] - The strong euro may exacerbate concerns regarding inflation, while persistent service sector inflation remains a focal point for some officials [2] Group 2 - Most economists believe that the ECB has limited room for policy adjustments in the short term, with the next action likely leaning towards an interest rate hike rather than a cut [3] - The anticipated timing for the next policy adjustment could be in Q3 2027, driven by increased domestic price pressures from defense and infrastructure spending [3] - Short-term interest rates may have a mild downward potential, but mid-term risks lean towards an upward adjustment due to geopolitical tensions and unexpected inflation data [3]