Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain key interest rates unchanged, marking the first pause in rate cuts since June of the previous year, amid moderate economic growth and inflation reaching the 2% target [1][2] - The ECB's deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and marginal lending rate remain at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40% respectively, with inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2027 set at 2.0% and 2026 at 1.6% [1] - The uncertainty surrounding US-EU trade negotiations, particularly the potential for tariffs up to 30% on EU goods, is a significant external factor impacting the ECB's policy space [1][2] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the ongoing trade negotiations are affecting corporate decision-making and may lead to a shift in production capacity towards the eurozone, potentially lowering product prices and increasing price instability [2] - The ECB's assessment indicates a 0.6% quarter-on-quarter growth in actual GDP for the eurozone in Q1, driven by preemptive shipping by businesses and stronger consumption and investment [2][3] - The July Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the eurozone rose to 51 from 50.6 in June, indicating a notable expansion in the services sector, although manufacturing remains in contraction [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to maintain its key interest rates unchanged, emphasizing that current inflation has stabilized at the mid-term target of 2% and future policies will adopt a "data-dependent, gradual assessment" approach without pre-setting interest rate paths [1][5]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The ECB's governing council unanimously decided to keep the three key interest rates unchanged during the July meeting [1]. - Future monetary policy will follow a "data-dependent" and "gradual meeting assessment" principle, considering inflation outlook, economic data, potential inflation dynamics, and the transmission effects of monetary policy [1][5]. - ECB President Lagarde stated that decisions will be based on the complete information available at each meeting, without pre-setting specific interest rate paths [1][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Eurozone's economic growth in Q1 exceeded expectations, driven by preemptive export expansions, recovering private consumption, and increased investment activities [1]. - The unemployment rate in May was 6.3%, close to the lowest level since the euro's introduction, supporting consumer resilience alongside actual income growth and healthy private sector balance sheets [2]. - The June annual inflation rate for the Eurozone was 2.0%, with energy prices rising month-on-month but remaining low year-on-year, and food inflation slightly decreasing to 3.1% [3]. Group 3: Challenges and Risks - High actual and expected tariffs, a strong euro, and geopolitical uncertainties have led to a decline in corporate investment willingness, posing a significant obstacle to current economic growth [2]. - Global trade tensions, deteriorating financial market sentiment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts may suppress exports and drag down investment and consumption [3]. - The fragmentation of global supply chains is pushing up import prices, while extreme weather and climate crises could lead to unexpected increases in food prices [4]. Group 4: Financial Market Conditions - Since the last meeting, market interest rates, particularly long-term rates, have risen, but the cumulative effects of previous rate cuts continue to show [5]. - The new loan rate for enterprises in May decreased to 3.7%, while bond issuance costs fell to 3.6%, indicating an increase in direct financing [5]. - The ECB is prepared to adjust all tools within its mandate to ensure inflation remains sustainably stable at the target level and to maintain the smooth operation of monetary policy transmission mechanisms [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Belgian Central Bank, Pierre Wunsch, highlighted the risk of inflation in the Eurozone remaining persistently below the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2% due to a bleak economic growth outlook and multiple factors exerting pressure on inflation [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy - Since June of last year, the ECB has cut interest rates by a total of 200 basis points to the current "neutral" rate of 2%, but Wunsch believes this level may be insufficient to address current challenges [1]. - He emphasized the necessity of providing additional policy support if economic recovery continues to be delayed and output remains below potential levels [1]. Group 2: Currency and Inflation Risks - The recent rise of the euro against the dollar to 1.18, the highest level since the end of 2021, has suppressed inflation and posed pressure on economic growth [1]. - Wunsch identified several risk factors contributing to downward pressure on inflation, including cheap imports, low energy prices, lack of tariff retaliation, a strong euro, and slowing wage growth [1]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The ECB forecasts that inflation will remain below the target for 18 months starting from the third quarter of 2025, with expectations that it will only return to the 2% target level by early 2027 [1]. - Financial markets anticipate that the deposit rate may drop to 1.75% within this year [1]. - Despite these challenges, Wunsch expressed confidence in the resilience of the Eurozone economy and suggested that concerns about excessive rate cuts should not be overstated [1]. Group 4: Fiscal Policy - Wunsch specifically mentioned Germany's large-scale fiscal expansion plan, describing it as having "significant disruptive implications," and believes that countries capable of implementing fiscal stimulus will provide important boosts to the economy [2]. - Recent Eurozone Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data also showed some optimistic signs, further supporting his cautiously optimistic outlook on future economic developments [2].

Group 1 - The U.S. Senate passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill with a vote of 51 to 50, which includes extending tax cuts from Trump's first term, exempting tips and overtime pay from taxes, and providing funding for defense and immigration enforcement [1] - The U.S. government announced the closure of the U.S. International Development Agency, which has been operational for nearly 64 years [2] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for June rose to 49, indicating continued contraction for four consecutive months, with new orders decreasing for five months [2] Group 2 - The Eurozone's inflation rate for June reached 2.0%, up from 1.9% in May, aligning with the European Central Bank's medium-term target [3] - The European Central Bank's President Lagarde stated that while the inflation target has been met, the task is not complete, and future policy will depend on data [3] - South Korea's exports in June increased by 4.3%, with semiconductor exports rising by 11.6% to a record $14.97 billion [4] Group 3 - The dollar index fell by 0.05%, closing at 96.822, with the euro and pound gaining against the dollar [6] - The onshore Chinese yuan appreciated against the dollar, closing at 7.1618, while the offshore yuan decreased slightly [6]

Core Viewpoint - The inflation rate in the Eurozone, which reached the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2% in June, is expected to decline in the coming months due to falling oil prices [1] Group 1: Inflation Trends - The recent rise in inflation was primarily driven by a surge in oil prices, which spiked over 10% due to the escalation of conflict in the Middle East [1] - As oil prices are projected to decrease at the end of the month, the inflation rate is likely to follow suit [1] Group 2: Central Bank Actions - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies is expected to lead the ECB to pause its actions later this month [1] - Tariff measures are anticipated to suppress European exports and exert downward pressure on commodity prices, which may prompt the ECB to implement interest rate cuts in the fall [1]

Core Viewpoint - The inflation rate in the Eurozone has slightly increased to 2.0% in June from 1.9% in May, but overall price pressures are diminishing due to slowing wage growth and a persistently weak economy [1] Group 1: Inflation Trends - The inflation rate in the Eurozone rose to 2.0% in June, up from 1.9% in May [1] - Service sector inflation showed little rebound after an unusually low performance in May [1] - Weak demand for goods continues to hinder immediate consumer price pressures [1] Group 2: Economic Context - The current state of inflation returning to a stable level is surprising given the significant uncertainties in the global economy [1] - There are ongoing risks of inflation surges, particularly due to oil price fluctuations and potential retaliatory tariffs from trade negotiations breaking down [1]

Core Viewpoint - The impact of tariffs on inflation in the Eurozone is considered limited by ECB Governing Council member Villeroy de Galhau [1] Group 1 - Villeroy de Galhau emphasized that the current inflationary pressures in the Eurozone are not significantly influenced by tariffs [1] - The ECB's focus remains on other factors contributing to inflation, rather than tariffs [1] - The statement reflects a broader understanding within the ECB regarding the complexities of inflation dynamics in the Eurozone [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) does not anticipate any surprises regarding wage developments in the eurozone [1] - The impact of tariffs on inflation within the eurozone is expected to be limited [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - The ECB, represented by Governor Villeroy, expresses confidence in the stability of wage growth, indicating no unexpected changes are foreseen [1] Inflation Dynamics - The influence of tariffs on inflation rates in the eurozone is assessed to be minimal, suggesting that external trade policies may not significantly affect the region's inflation outlook [1]

经济学家预计，欧元区5月通胀率可能接近或低于欧洲央行2%的目标，这将巩固欧洲央行下周降息的预 期。西班牙通胀放缓主要得益于休闲活动价格下降和电力价格走软，核心通胀率也略有下降。通胀持续 下降使市场预期欧洲央行下周将降息0.25个百分点至2.0%，这将是自2024年6月以来的第八次降息。欧 洲央行经济学家预计下周将下调通胀预测，此前3月的预测未考虑美国关税影响。美国关税上升可能削 弱欧元区通胀，因欧洲商品需求减少，且中国廉价商品可能转向欧洲。欧元升值以及能源价格因全球经 济增长放缓而走低，也对抑制通胀起到一定作用。欧元区内，第一季度薪资增长放缓，缓解了劳动密集 型服务行业的提价压力。欧洲央行有望成为首个将通胀恢复至目标水平的主要央行，而美联储则担心关 税可能引发更高通胀。欧元区经济增长部分得益于美国公司为应对关税而囤积欧盟商品，但整体通胀压 力有所缓解。 周三（6月4日）亚盘早盘，欧元兑美元上涨，目前交投于1.13附近，截止北京时间11:26分，欧元兑美元 报价1.1379，涨幅0.06%，上一交易日欧元兑美元收盘为1.1372。西班牙和法国5月物价涨幅放缓，为欧 洲央行降息铺平道路。西班牙5月通胀率从4月的2 ...

Group 1 - The core inflation rate in the Eurozone fell to 2.3% in May, the lowest level since January 2022, driven by a decrease in service inflation and energy prices [2][3][5] - The Eurozone's inflation rate for May dropped to 1.9%, significantly lower than the 2.2% recorded in April, primarily due to a decline in service inflation from 4.0% to 3.2% [2][4] - Major Eurozone economies such as Germany, France, Italy, and Spain reported inflation rates of 2.1%, 0.6%, 1.9%, and 1.9% respectively in May [4] Group 2 - The market fully expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit rate down to 2% [6][8] - There is speculation that this may be the last rate cut in the current cycle, with future decisions potentially influenced by trade uncertainties and fiscal stimulus measures [6][8] - Analysts suggest that the ECB may pause further rate cuts after June, as they assess the urgency for additional monetary easing [7][8]