格隆汇1月7日｜荷兰国际集团的Bert Colijn在报告中表示，欧洲央行在决定下一步行动之前，可以等待 更多关于经济的数据。欧元区12月通胀率从11月的2.1%回落至2.0%的目标水平。他指出，展望未来几 个月，欧元走强、能源价格处于低位以及工资增长放缓均预示着物价涨幅将进一步趋缓。然而，由于近 期企业对商品的销售价格预期有所上升，预计通胀不会大幅跌破2%。Colijn认为，到2026年晚些时候， 随着财政支出预计将对经济增长产生温和的推动作用，通胀可能会重新面临上行压力。他补充称，欧洲 央行"在决定下一步举措之前，完全有能力等待更多有关经济和通胀走向的信号"。 ...

分析指出，此次数据印证了欧央行当前的主流判断，即通胀已基本得到控制。市场预计，欧央行将维持 审慎立场，不会急于开启降息周期。（驻波黑使馆经商处） 波黑《新闻报》12月3日报道。欧盟统计局周二公布的数据显示，11月欧元区通胀率意外回升至2.2%， 而全年多数时间保持在接近欧央行2%的目标水平。尽管能源价格回落缓解了部分压力，但国内价格， 尤其是服务业成本依然坚挺，这一数据可能强化了市场预期，即欧央行短期内不会进一步降息。核心通 胀率维持在2.4%不变，反映出服务价格上涨较快，而耐用消费品价格则表现疲软。 ...

Core Insights - The Eurozone's annual inflation rate for November is projected at 2.2%, an increase from 2.1% in October, marking the second consecutive month of rise [1] Inflation Breakdown - Service prices are expected to rise the most, with a projected increase of 3.5% in November, up from 3.4% in October [1] - Food, alcohol, and tobacco prices are anticipated to increase by 2.5%, remaining stable compared to the previous month [1] - Non-energy industrial goods prices are expected to rise by 0.6% [1] - Energy prices continue to be in negative territory but with a reduced decline, projected to decrease by 0.5%, an improvement from a 0.9% drop in October [1] Country-Specific Inflation Rates - Germany's inflation rate for November is expected to be 2.6%, showing an upward trend from the previous month [1] - Spain and Luxembourg are projected at 3.1% and 3.6% respectively [1] - France's inflation rate is expected to remain low at 0.8% [1] - Italy's inflation is projected at 1.1% [1] - Some countries still exhibit high inflation rates, such as Croatia at 4.3% and Austria at 4.1% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Eurozone's business activity shows steady growth in November, indicating economic resilience, with improved business confidence suggesting continued momentum and a balanced inflation outlook, potentially leading the European Central Bank (ECB) to stabilize interest rates by 2026 [1][6]. Economic Indicators - The Eurozone's November composite PMI slightly decreased from October's two-year high of 52.5 to 52.4, remaining above the 50 mark, indicating ongoing economic expansion [2]. - The services sector's PMI rose to 53.1 in November, the fastest growth in 18 months, supported by robust new orders, while employment growth was cautious [2]. - Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7, indicating a return to contraction, with new orders and employment both declining, suggesting a lack of clear direction in the sector [2]. Country-Specific Insights - Germany's November composite PMI dropped to 52.1, with manufacturing PMI falling to 48.4, reflecting a significant decline in new orders, particularly in exports [3]. - France's November composite PMI improved to 49.9, nearing stability after over a year of decline, with services PMI rising to 50.8, indicating a slight recovery in business activity [4]. ECB Outlook - The ECB is expected to maintain interest rates through December and into next year, supported by resilient economic growth and improved business confidence [6][7]. - ECB officials have indicated that current interest rates are appropriate, with a focus on balancing inflation risks and economic performance [8].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintains a balanced view on inflation risks in the Eurozone, indicating that current interest rates are appropriate [1]. Group 1: Interest Rates and Economic Forecasts - The ECB has kept interest rates unchanged since June, with expectations that rates will remain stable even during the upcoming December meeting [1]. - New economic forecasts are anticipated to be released in December, likely indicating that inflation will fall below the ECB's 2% target next year [1]. Group 2: Inflation Trends - Throughout most of this year, Eurozone inflation has hovered around the 2% target, but it is expected to dip below this target by 2026 due to statistical base effects [1]. - Some decision-makers express concerns that low inflation could become entrenched if businesses adjust wages and pricing behaviors accordingly [1]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - The majority of decision-makers downplay the risks associated with inflation falling below the target, leading the market to believe that the ECB has concluded its rate-cutting cycle after halving deposit rates to 2% over the past year [1].

Core Viewpoint - The President of the Slovak National Bank, Peter Kazimir, indicates that inflation risks in the Eurozone are currently moderate, suggesting that the European Central Bank (ECB) should avoid frequent adjustments to monetary policy to prevent increased volatility in financial markets [1] Group 1: Inflation Outlook - Kazimir notes that while the market expects the Eurozone inflation rate to fall below 2% next year due to base effects from energy prices, there are still risks associated with core inflation and wage growth exceeding expectations [1] - Investors currently see a very low probability of an ECB rate cut in December, but maintain a 40% probability for a rate cut before mid-2026 [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Guidance - Kazimir emphasizes that a data-driven approach implies that future policy adjustments could go in either direction, highlighting the need for careful consideration in monetary policy decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Nagel denies claims that inflation in the Eurozone has fallen slightly below the 2% target, asserting that medium-term inflation remains close to the target [1] Group 1: Inflation Predictions - The ECB currently forecasts consumer prices to rise by 1.7% in the next year and by 1.9% in 2027 [1] - There are expectations that the 2028 forecast may indicate inflation not reaching the 2% target [1] Group 2: Policy Flexibility - Nagel emphasizes that the upcoming December meeting will clarify the situation regarding monetary policy, indicating that while further rate cuts are not widely anticipated, the outcomes remain uncertain [1] - He also mentions maintaining flexibility in all policy options [1]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain key interest rates unchanged, indicating a potential mild growth in the Eurozone economy despite facing multiple challenges [1][2] - The ECB forecasts a 1.2% economic growth rate for the Eurozone in 2025, an increase from the previous prediction of 0.9% [1] - Political instability in major Eurozone economies, such as France, raises concerns about debt levels and market confidence, impacting economic stability [2][3] Group 2 - The Eurozone's inflation rate is projected to be 2.1% in 2025, close to the ECB's target of 2%, but faces dual risks from a strong euro and trade tensions [2] - The ECB's future challenges may stem more from political and fiscal risks rather than economic issues, as structural reforms are lagging [3] - The ongoing trade negotiations with the US highlight Europe's struggle to assert itself against American pressure, reflecting a broader issue of geopolitical vulnerability [3]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain its three key interest rates unchanged during its monetary policy meeting, which was the first after the recent US-EU trade agreement, amid concerns about economic growth and inflation stability in the Eurozone [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The ECB's deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and marginal lending rate remain at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40% respectively [2]. - Since starting the rate cut process in June 2024, the ECB has lowered rates eight times, with the last decision in July 2024 to keep rates unchanged [2]. Group 2: Economic Forecasts - The ECB maintains a medium-term inflation target of 2% for the Eurozone, with projected overall inflation rates of 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027 [2]. - The latest economic growth forecast for the Eurozone is 1.2% for 2025, an increase from the previous prediction of 0.9% made in June [2]. - The Eurozone economy grew by 0.7% in the first half of the year, supported by resilient demand [2]. Group 3: Risks and Uncertainties - Higher tariffs, a stronger euro, and increased global competition are expected to suppress growth in the Eurozone [3][4]. - Geopolitical tensions and potential deterioration in international trade relations pose significant uncertainties that could further inhibit exports, investment, and consumption [4]. - The recent political turmoil in France, including the resignation of former Prime Minister Béru, raises concerns about debt levels and political stability in the Eurozone's second-largest economy [4]. Group 4: Future Challenges - The ECB's primary challenge may shift from inflation to political and fiscal risks within Europe [5]. - Analysts suggest that while the threshold for further rate cuts is high, the ECB may be forced to reconsider its stance in the coming months if inflation remains below target or economic growth stagnates [4].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Data Daily [4] - Report Date: September 3, 2025 [5] - Research Institution: ITG Guomao Futures [3] - Research Center: Macroeconomic and Financial Research Center [5] - Analyst: Bai Suna [5] Group 2: Price Tracking Spot and Futures Prices - On September 2, 2025, London Gold Spot was at $3,486.02/ounce, London Silver Spot at $40.70/ounce, COMEX Gold at $3,556.10/ounce, and COMEX Silver at $41.70/ounce. The prices of AU2510, AG2510, AU (T+D), and AG (T+D) were 804.32 yuan/gram, 9,824 yuan/kilogram, 799.94 yuan/gram, and 9,797 yuan/kilogram respectively [5]. - Compared to September 1, 2025, the price increases were 0.2% for London Gold Spot, 0.5% for London Silver Spot, 0.3% for COMEX Gold, 0.8% for COMEX Silver, 0.5% for AU2510, 0.5% for AG2510, 0.4% for AU (T+D), and 0.5% for AG (T+D) [5]. Price Spreads and Ratios - On September 2, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was -4.38 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was -27 yuan/kilogram, the gold internal - external (TD - London) price spread was 3.19 yuan/gram, and the silver internal - external (TD - London) price spread was -633 yuan/kilogram. The SHFE gold - silver ratio was 81.87, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 85.29. The spreads between AU2512 - 2510 and AG2512 - 2510 were 1.86 yuan/gram and 21 yuan/kilogram respectively [5]. - Compared to September 1, 2025, the price spread changes were 12.0% for gold TD - SHFE active price spread, -3.6% for silver TD - SHFE active price spread, 86.6% for gold internal - external (TD - London) price spread, 0.1% for silver internal - external (TD - London) price spread, 0.0% for SHFE gold - silver ratio, -0.5% for COMEX gold - silver ratio, 13.4% for AU2512 - 2510 spread, and -8.7% for AG2512 - 2510 spread [5]. Group 3: Position Data Non - commercial Positions in COMEX - As of August 26, 2025 (weekly data), COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 275,767 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 61,456 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 214,311 contracts. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 68,227 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 21,761 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 46,466 contracts [5]. ETF Positions - On August 29, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR held 977.68 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV held 15,309.99769 tons. Compared to August 28, 2025, the changes were 1.01% for gold ETF - SPDR and -0.15% for silver ETF - SLV [5]. Group 4: Inventory Data SHFE and COMEX Inventories - On September 2, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 40,191 kilograms, and SHFE silver inventory was 1,215,228 kilograms. On August 29, 2025, COMEX gold inventory was 38,925,853 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory was 518,232,360 troy ounces. Compared to the previous period, the increases were 1.12% for SHFE gold inventory, 0.66% for SHFE silver inventory, 0.42% for COMEX gold inventory, and 0.20% for COMEX silver inventory [5]. Group 5: Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market Data Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - On September 2, 2025, the USD/CNY central parity rate was 7.11. On August 29, 2025, the US Dollar Index was 97.85, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.59%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.23%, the VIX was 15.36, the S&P 500 was 6,460.26, and NYMEX crude oil was $64.01/barrel [5]. - Compared to the previous period, the changes were 0.02% for the USD/CNY central parity rate, -0.02% for the US Dollar Index, -0.83% for the 2 - year US Treasury yield, 0.24% for the 10 - year US Treasury yield, 6.44% for the VIX, -0.64% for the S&P 500, and -0.48% for NYMEX crude oil [5]. Group 6: Key News - On August 29, 2025, the US Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff policies implemented by former President Trump were illegal, and these additional tariffs could be maintained until October 14 to allow the US government to appeal to the Supreme Court. Chinese Vice Minister of Commerce Li Chenggang visited the US and held talks with relevant US government officials and business representatives [5]. - The preliminary Eurozone CPI annual rate in August 2025 was 0.2% (previous value 0.00%), the preliminary Eurozone PPI annual rate was 2.1% (expected 2%, previous value 2.00%), and the preliminary Eurozone core PPI annual rate was 2.3% (expected 2.3%, previous value 2.4%) [5]. - Due to market expectations of Germany's investment plan and potential increase in defense spending in Eurozone countries, Eurozone ultra - long - term government bonds faced selling pressure. The yield of Germany's 30 - year government bonds reached a 14 - year high, and the yields of 30 - year government bonds in the UK and France reached their highest levels in many years [5]. - Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himino Ryozo stated that it is appropriate to continue raising interest rates based on the improvement of the economy and prices [5]. Group 7: Market Analysis Short - term Logic - On September 2, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 1.21% to 804.32 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 2.33% to 9,824 yuan/kilogram [5]. - The short - term logic is that the overall US PCE in July 2025 met expectations, indicating that the Fed's inflation control target is controllable. The decline in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August further strengthened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut. The Fed's independent stance boosted the rebound of precious metal prices. Additionally, due to fiscal concerns and rising debt levels, Eurozone ultra - long - term government bonds faced selling pressure, and local geopolitical tensions increased market risk aversion, supporting precious metal prices. However, the rise in the US Dollar Index due to government bond risks may slow down the rise of precious metal prices. It is expected that the gold price will remain high in the short term, and long positions are recommended to be held. Silver is approaching the 10,000 - yuan mark, and the potential suppression of its commodity attributes by the fermentation of European debt risks should be watched out for [5]. Medium - and Long - term Logic - In the medium - and long - term, with the expectation of Fed rate cuts, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensifying major - power competition, and the wave of de - dollarization, central banks around the world will continue to buy gold, and the medium - and long - term center of the gold price is likely to continue to rise [5].