新华财经北京11月21日电（王姝睿）欧元区11月商业活动稳步增长，显示出经济韧性。分析称，企业信 心的改善表明欧元区经济动能有望继续保持，叠加通胀前景趋于平衡，欧洲央行2026年可能进入利率稳 定期。 欧元区11月综合PMI处于扩张区间 今年以来，尽管全球不确定性居高不下，欧元区依然展现出韧性，数据显示，欧元区11月综合PMI初值 从10月逾两年高点的52.5小幅降至11月的52.4，略低于52.5的预期，但仍高于50荣枯线，显示经济持续 扩张。 欧元区服务业扩张速度创下一年半来最快水平，新订单稳健增长构成支撑。欧元区11月服务业PMI初值 升至53.1，高于10月的53及预期的52.8。就业持续增长但幅度有限，显示企业招聘更趋谨慎。投入成本 加速上升，产出价格通胀放缓至2021年4月以来最低水平。商业信心微幅下滑，表明企业保持乐观但对 前景预期略有降温。 不过，需求疲软使制造业重新陷入萎缩。欧元区11月制造业PMI初值降至49.7，低于10月的50及预期的 50.2。汉堡商业银行经济学家指出，制造业自今年3月以来始终缺乏明确方向，整体状况未见改善。新 订单与就业双双下降，制造业就业已连续两年半环比下滑。产出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintains a balanced view on inflation risks in the Eurozone, indicating that current interest rates are appropriate [1]. Group 1: Interest Rates and Economic Forecasts - The ECB has kept interest rates unchanged since June, with expectations that rates will remain stable even during the upcoming December meeting [1]. - New economic forecasts are anticipated to be released in December, likely indicating that inflation will fall below the ECB's 2% target next year [1]. Group 2: Inflation Trends - Throughout most of this year, Eurozone inflation has hovered around the 2% target, but it is expected to dip below this target by 2026 due to statistical base effects [1]. - Some decision-makers express concerns that low inflation could become entrenched if businesses adjust wages and pricing behaviors accordingly [1]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - The majority of decision-makers downplay the risks associated with inflation falling below the target, leading the market to believe that the ECB has concluded its rate-cutting cycle after halving deposit rates to 2% over the past year [1].

Core Viewpoint - The President of the Slovak National Bank, Peter Kazimir, indicates that inflation risks in the Eurozone are currently moderate, suggesting that the European Central Bank (ECB) should avoid frequent adjustments to monetary policy to prevent increased volatility in financial markets [1] Group 1: Inflation Outlook - Kazimir notes that while the market expects the Eurozone inflation rate to fall below 2% next year due to base effects from energy prices, there are still risks associated with core inflation and wage growth exceeding expectations [1] - Investors currently see a very low probability of an ECB rate cut in December, but maintain a 40% probability for a rate cut before mid-2026 [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Guidance - Kazimir emphasizes that a data-driven approach implies that future policy adjustments could go in either direction, highlighting the need for careful consideration in monetary policy decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Nagel denies claims that inflation in the Eurozone has fallen slightly below the 2% target, asserting that medium-term inflation remains close to the target [1] Group 1: Inflation Predictions - The ECB currently forecasts consumer prices to rise by 1.7% in the next year and by 1.9% in 2027 [1] - There are expectations that the 2028 forecast may indicate inflation not reaching the 2% target [1] Group 2: Policy Flexibility - Nagel emphasizes that the upcoming December meeting will clarify the situation regarding monetary policy, indicating that while further rate cuts are not widely anticipated, the outcomes remain uncertain [1] - He also mentions maintaining flexibility in all policy options [1]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain key interest rates unchanged, indicating a potential mild growth in the Eurozone economy despite facing multiple challenges [1][2] - The ECB forecasts a 1.2% economic growth rate for the Eurozone in 2025, an increase from the previous prediction of 0.9% [1] - Political instability in major Eurozone economies, such as France, raises concerns about debt levels and market confidence, impacting economic stability [2][3] Group 2 - The Eurozone's inflation rate is projected to be 2.1% in 2025, close to the ECB's target of 2%, but faces dual risks from a strong euro and trade tensions [2] - The ECB's future challenges may stem more from political and fiscal risks rather than economic issues, as structural reforms are lagging [3] - The ongoing trade negotiations with the US highlight Europe's struggle to assert itself against American pressure, reflecting a broader issue of geopolitical vulnerability [3]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain its three key interest rates unchanged during its monetary policy meeting, which was the first after the recent US-EU trade agreement, amid concerns about economic growth and inflation stability in the Eurozone [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The ECB's deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and marginal lending rate remain at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40% respectively [2]. - Since starting the rate cut process in June 2024, the ECB has lowered rates eight times, with the last decision in July 2024 to keep rates unchanged [2]. Group 2: Economic Forecasts - The ECB maintains a medium-term inflation target of 2% for the Eurozone, with projected overall inflation rates of 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027 [2]. - The latest economic growth forecast for the Eurozone is 1.2% for 2025, an increase from the previous prediction of 0.9% made in June [2]. - The Eurozone economy grew by 0.7% in the first half of the year, supported by resilient demand [2]. Group 3: Risks and Uncertainties - Higher tariffs, a stronger euro, and increased global competition are expected to suppress growth in the Eurozone [3][4]. - Geopolitical tensions and potential deterioration in international trade relations pose significant uncertainties that could further inhibit exports, investment, and consumption [4]. - The recent political turmoil in France, including the resignation of former Prime Minister Béru, raises concerns about debt levels and political stability in the Eurozone's second-largest economy [4]. Group 4: Future Challenges - The ECB's primary challenge may shift from inflation to political and fiscal risks within Europe [5]. - Analysts suggest that while the threshold for further rate cuts is high, the ECB may be forced to reconsider its stance in the coming months if inflation remains below target or economic growth stagnates [4].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Data Daily [4] - Report Date: September 3, 2025 [5] - Research Institution: ITG Guomao Futures [3] - Research Center: Macroeconomic and Financial Research Center [5] - Analyst: Bai Suna [5] Group 2: Price Tracking Spot and Futures Prices - On September 2, 2025, London Gold Spot was at $3,486.02/ounce, London Silver Spot at $40.70/ounce, COMEX Gold at $3,556.10/ounce, and COMEX Silver at $41.70/ounce. The prices of AU2510, AG2510, AU (T+D), and AG (T+D) were 804.32 yuan/gram, 9,824 yuan/kilogram, 799.94 yuan/gram, and 9,797 yuan/kilogram respectively [5]. - Compared to September 1, 2025, the price increases were 0.2% for London Gold Spot, 0.5% for London Silver Spot, 0.3% for COMEX Gold, 0.8% for COMEX Silver, 0.5% for AU2510, 0.5% for AG2510, 0.4% for AU (T+D), and 0.5% for AG (T+D) [5]. Price Spreads and Ratios - On September 2, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was -4.38 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was -27 yuan/kilogram, the gold internal - external (TD - London) price spread was 3.19 yuan/gram, and the silver internal - external (TD - London) price spread was -633 yuan/kilogram. The SHFE gold - silver ratio was 81.87, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 85.29. The spreads between AU2512 - 2510 and AG2512 - 2510 were 1.86 yuan/gram and 21 yuan/kilogram respectively [5]. - Compared to September 1, 2025, the price spread changes were 12.0% for gold TD - SHFE active price spread, -3.6% for silver TD - SHFE active price spread, 86.6% for gold internal - external (TD - London) price spread, 0.1% for silver internal - external (TD - London) price spread, 0.0% for SHFE gold - silver ratio, -0.5% for COMEX gold - silver ratio, 13.4% for AU2512 - 2510 spread, and -8.7% for AG2512 - 2510 spread [5]. Group 3: Position Data Non - commercial Positions in COMEX - As of August 26, 2025 (weekly data), COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 275,767 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 61,456 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 214,311 contracts. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 68,227 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 21,761 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 46,466 contracts [5]. ETF Positions - On August 29, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR held 977.68 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV held 15,309.99769 tons. Compared to August 28, 2025, the changes were 1.01% for gold ETF - SPDR and -0.15% for silver ETF - SLV [5]. Group 4: Inventory Data SHFE and COMEX Inventories - On September 2, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 40,191 kilograms, and SHFE silver inventory was 1,215,228 kilograms. On August 29, 2025, COMEX gold inventory was 38,925,853 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory was 518,232,360 troy ounces. Compared to the previous period, the increases were 1.12% for SHFE gold inventory, 0.66% for SHFE silver inventory, 0.42% for COMEX gold inventory, and 0.20% for COMEX silver inventory [5]. Group 5: Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market Data Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - On September 2, 2025, the USD/CNY central parity rate was 7.11. On August 29, 2025, the US Dollar Index was 97.85, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.59%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.23%, the VIX was 15.36, the S&P 500 was 6,460.26, and NYMEX crude oil was $64.01/barrel [5]. - Compared to the previous period, the changes were 0.02% for the USD/CNY central parity rate, -0.02% for the US Dollar Index, -0.83% for the 2 - year US Treasury yield, 0.24% for the 10 - year US Treasury yield, 6.44% for the VIX, -0.64% for the S&P 500, and -0.48% for NYMEX crude oil [5]. Group 6: Key News - On August 29, 2025, the US Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff policies implemented by former President Trump were illegal, and these additional tariffs could be maintained until October 14 to allow the US government to appeal to the Supreme Court. Chinese Vice Minister of Commerce Li Chenggang visited the US and held talks with relevant US government officials and business representatives [5]. - The preliminary Eurozone CPI annual rate in August 2025 was 0.2% (previous value 0.00%), the preliminary Eurozone PPI annual rate was 2.1% (expected 2%, previous value 2.00%), and the preliminary Eurozone core PPI annual rate was 2.3% (expected 2.3%, previous value 2.4%) [5]. - Due to market expectations of Germany's investment plan and potential increase in defense spending in Eurozone countries, Eurozone ultra - long - term government bonds faced selling pressure. The yield of Germany's 30 - year government bonds reached a 14 - year high, and the yields of 30 - year government bonds in the UK and France reached their highest levels in many years [5]. - Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himino Ryozo stated that it is appropriate to continue raising interest rates based on the improvement of the economy and prices [5]. Group 7: Market Analysis Short - term Logic - On September 2, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 1.21% to 804.32 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 2.33% to 9,824 yuan/kilogram [5]. - The short - term logic is that the overall US PCE in July 2025 met expectations, indicating that the Fed's inflation control target is controllable. The decline in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August further strengthened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut. The Fed's independent stance boosted the rebound of precious metal prices. Additionally, due to fiscal concerns and rising debt levels, Eurozone ultra - long - term government bonds faced selling pressure, and local geopolitical tensions increased market risk aversion, supporting precious metal prices. However, the rise in the US Dollar Index due to government bond risks may slow down the rise of precious metal prices. It is expected that the gold price will remain high in the short term, and long positions are recommended to be held. Silver is approaching the 10,000 - yuan mark, and the potential suppression of its commodity attributes by the fermentation of European debt risks should be watched out for [5]. Medium - and Long - term Logic - In the medium - and long - term, with the expectation of Fed rate cuts, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensifying major - power competition, and the wave of de - dollarization, central banks around the world will continue to buy gold, and the medium - and long - term center of the gold price is likely to continue to rise [5].

Core Viewpoint - The inflation rate in the Eurozone has slightly increased to just above the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2%, indicating a generally stable inflation environment despite future risks [1] Group 1: Inflation and Economic Outlook - The current inflation data supports the notion of overall stability in the inflation environment [1] - Economic growth remains weak, and future economic conditions are uncertain, which may influence ECB policy decisions [1] - There is a general market expectation that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates again, which could impact ECB's approach [1] Group 2: ECB Policy Decisions - The decision to pause interest rate cuts is considered logical given that rates are at neutral levels [1] - Some ECB policymakers may still advocate for another rate cut, although this likelihood is deemed low due to sufficient reasons to maintain current rates [1]

Group 1 - Eurozone's August CPI rose by 2.1% year-on-year, up from 2.0% in July, aligning with economists' expectations [1] - Core inflation, excluding volatile items like energy and food, remained stable at 2.3% [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates at 2% during the upcoming meeting on September 11, as indicated by the latest inflation data [1] Group 2 - ECB decision-makers generally support keeping interest rates stable, with the German central bank president describing the current economic state as "some kind of equilibrium" [2] - Some officials, however, suggest that the possibility of future rate cuts remains, citing uncertainties in the economic outlook [3] - The inflation data reveals a mixed performance across Eurozone countries, with France, Italy, and Spain showing lower-than-expected inflation, while Germany's inflation was slightly above expectations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro is experiencing an upward trend against the US dollar, currently trading around 1.17, with a slight increase of 0.23% from the previous close [1] Economic Indicators - Eurozone inflation remains unchanged at an annual rate of 2.0% for July, with core inflation also stable [1] - Food inflation is accelerating, and the base effect of oil prices may lead to a rebound in Eurozone inflation in the remaining months of the year [1] Central Bank Actions - The European Central Bank (ECB) may consider another rate cut in September, potentially lowering the rate to 1.75% [1] - A decrease in core inflation in August would further support the ECB's decision to cut rates [1] Market Dynamics - The Euro to USD exchange rate shows some momentum but is still within a consolidation range [1] - Key resistance levels for the Euro include the August high of 1.1742, with further targets at 1.1788 and 1.1830 [1] - A strong upward movement could challenge the September 2021 high of 1.1909, just below the significant psychological level of 1.2000 [1]