1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The rubber market is expected to be volatile. The fundamental trend of increasing supply and decreasing demand remains unchanged. As the seasonal rubber - tapping season arrives in domestic and foreign production areas, raw material prices are likely to fall, with insufficient cost - side support. Under the pressure of increased supply, there are no signs of improvement on the demand side, and the market lacks a strong upward driving force. After the previous sharp decline in rubber prices, the prices may fluctuate during the upward repair process due to macro - sentiment fluctuations [66]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - **Cote d'Ivoire**: In the first five months of 2025, rubber exports totaled 629,672 tons, a 7.9% increase from the same period in 2024. In May, exports increased by 23.2% year - on - year but decreased by 9.6% month - on - month [5]. - **India**: Adequate monsoon rains in Kerala may boost natural rubber production by 5% - 10% this fiscal year. However, the decline in international block rubber prices may affect domestic prices [5]. - **Thailand**: The Rubber Authority of Thailand (RAOT) is accelerating the registration of 20 million rai of rubber plantations to comply with the EUDR regulations. Thailand has been classified as a low - risk country, which will enhance the competitiveness of its rubber exports to the EU [6][7]. 3.2 Price - This week, both domestic and foreign rubber markets rebounded slightly, with the domestic market having a larger increase. On June 6, 2025, the closing prices of RU2509, NR2509, Singapore TSR20:2509, and Tokyo RSS3:2509 were 13,650 yuan/ton, 11,790 yuan/ton, 159.90 cents/kg, and 304.10 yen/kg respectively, with weekly increases of 1.83%, 2.12%, 0.19%, and 1.37% [10][11]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - **Basis**: On June 6, 2025, the basis of whole - milk rubber - RU was 0 yuan/ton, with a 100% increase compared to the previous period and a 100% increase year - on - year [15]. - **Spread**: The 09 - 01 spread was - 890 yuan/ton, with a - 11.95% change compared to the previous period and a 26.14% increase year - on - year [15]. 3.4 Other Spreads - **Cross - variety/cross - market spreads**: On June 6, 2025, the spreads of RU09 - NR09, RU09 - BR09, NR09 - TSR20 09, and RU09 - Tokyo RSS3 09 were 1,860 yuan/ton, 2,575 yuan/ton, 301.98 yuan/ton, and - 1,447.06 yuan/ton respectively. The spreads of RU - BR, RU - JPX RSS3, and NR - SGX TSR20 increased [16][17]. - **Non - standard basis**: The import rubber market's offer center of gravity moved down this week. The spot price of domestic natural rubber followed the futures market and weakened. The downstream demand did not improve significantly [18]. - **Light - dark color spread**: The difference between whole - milk rubber and Thai mixed rubber increased, while the difference between 3L rubber and Thai mixed rubber decreased [20]. 3.5 Substitute Prices - On June 6, 2025, the prices of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber in the Chinese mainstream market were 11,600 yuan/ton and 11,850 yuan/ton respectively. The difference between synthetic rubber and RU decreased as synthetic rubber fluctuated slightly and RU increased more [30]. 3.6 Fund Trends - On June 6, 2025, the virtual - to - physical ratio of the RU main contract was 8.89, at a low level, and the settled funds were at a low level year - on - year. The virtual - to - physical ratio of the NR main contract was 17.69, showing a decline from a high level, and the settled funds also declined from a high level [31][32]. 3.7 Fundamental Data 3.7.1 Supply - **Weather**: In Thailand, the temperature in the northeast was slightly lower this week, and rainfall was higher compared to the same period. Yunnan and Hainan in China are gradually entering the rainy season [35][36]. - **Raw material prices**: On June 6, 2025, the prices of cup lumps, latex, smoked sheets, and raw sheets in Thailand were 44.90 baht/kg, 56.00 baht/kg, 65.90 baht/kg, and 62.26 baht/kg respectively. The prices of Hainan and Yunnan latex were 12,400 yuan/ton and 12,900 yuan/ton respectively. Due to more rain disturbances in production areas and the decline of the spot - futures market, raw material prices continued to fall [37]. - **Raw material spreads**: The Thailand cup - latex spread fluctuated greatly, and the spread between Hainan latex entering the concentrated latex factory and the whole - milk rubber factory increased [41]. - **Upstream processing profits**: On June 6, 2025, the production profits of Thai standard rubber, concentrated latex, smoked sheets, and Hainan concentrated latex were 177 yuan/ton, 1,820 yuan/ton, - 181.72 yuan/ton, and 684.42 yuan/ton respectively. Processing profits increased significantly due to the sharp decline in raw materials [44][46]. - **Rubber imports**: In April 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including mixed and composite rubber) decreased by 12% month - on - month and increased by 42% year - on - year. The imports of Thai standard rubber and Cote d'Ivoire standard rubber were at a high level [47][48]. 3.7.2 Demand - **Tire capacity utilization and inventory**: On June 6, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires were 55.65% and 64.05% respectively, showing a decline. The inventory days of all - steel and semi - steel tires were 41.87 days and 45.84 days respectively. The tire inventory decreased marginally [49][50]. - **Tire exports and heavy - truck sales**: In April 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires decreased seasonally month - on - month but performed well year - on - year. Heavy - truck sales decreased month - on - month and increased slightly year - on - year. Passenger car sales decreased month - on - month and were at a high level year - on - year [52][53]. 3.7.3 Inventory - **Spot inventory**: On May 30, 2025, the inventories of dark - colored rubber, light - colored rubber, and the total social inventory of natural rubber in China were 76.35 tons, 51.70 tons, and 128.05 tons respectively, showing a downward trend [54][56]. - **Futures inventory**: On June 6, 2025, the futures inventories of natural rubber in the SHFE and INE were 19.35 tons and 2.19 tons respectively, with a decrease of 2.61% and an increase of 23.99% compared to the previous week [57]. 3.8 Operation Suggestions - The rubber market is expected to be volatile. The fundamental situation of increasing supply and weakening demand remains unchanged. The cost - side support is insufficient, and the demand shows no signs of improvement. After the previous sharp decline, the rubber price may fluctuate during the upward repair process [66].

02 现货行情 2025/5/29 10:11 【国富期货早间看点】印尼下调6 CPO 856.38 / 市场预期阿根廷⼤⾖产量降⾄4870 20250529 【国富期货早间看点】印尼下调6月CPO参考价至856.38美元/吨 市 场预期阿根廷大豆产量降至4870万吨 20250529 2025年05月29日 07:34 上海 | | 收盘价 | 上日 漆跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油08(BMD) | 3882. 00 | 0. 80 | -0. 44 | | 布伦特08(ICE) | 64. 33 | 0.93 | 0. 14 | | 美原油07(NYMEX) | 61.86 | 1.29 | 0. 31 | | 美豆07 (CBOT) | 1048. 50 | -1.25 | -0.52 | | 美豆箱07(CBOT) | 293.80 | -0. 74 | -0. 27 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 48.88 | -1.61 | -0.02 | 01 隔夜行情 | | 最新价 | 流跌幅(%) | 十日涨跌幅 | | --- ...