Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut interest rates by 50 basis points, initiating a new easing cycle, with a total of three consecutive cuts. However, in 2025, the Fed maintained its stance for five consecutive meetings due to inflation concerns, before restarting rate cuts on September 17, 2025, which boosted market risk appetite and led to record highs in stock markets across China, the US, Japan, and South Korea [1]. Group 1: Impact of Federal Reserve Actions - The recent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to influence other Asian central banks, with predictions of rate reductions between 25 to 75 basis points for most Asian central banks next year, excluding the Bank of Japan [2]. - In a low interest rate and dollar environment, Asian stock markets typically perform well, with Goldman Sachs maintaining an optimistic outlook on markets in China, South Korea, and Japan [3]. Group 2: Focus on Chinese Market - Goldman Sachs has a positive view on the Chinese stock market, emphasizing themes such as leading private enterprises and the ongoing industry consolidation under the "anti-involution" theme, which could benefit these companies [3]. - Strong Chinese companies expanding into emerging markets and focusing on artificial intelligence, particularly robotics, are also highlighted as attractive investment opportunities. Additionally, there is a trend of higher shareholder returns, with companies increasing dividends and cash returns to shareholders [3]. Group 3: ASEAN Market Analysis - The ASEAN markets are lagging behind in the current easing cycle, with low valuations in markets like Indonesia and the Philippines, where expected P/E ratios are around 10 to 11, significantly below their long-term averages [4]. - Despite low liquidity challenges, particularly in the Philippines, the market is considered one of the cheapest in Asia, with a P/E ratio of 10, and potential for double-digit earnings growth. The domestic-driven sectors such as banking, real estate, and consumption are less sensitive to global risks, making the Philippines market attractive for investors willing to take on liquidity risks [4]. - Overall, Goldman Sachs holds an overweight view on the Philippines market, suggesting it offers good value and opportunities for investors who can manage liquidity risks [4].

21世纪经济报道 实习生 张长荣 记者 崔文静 北京报道 "中国经济增长仍具韧性，今年下半年还需政策发力支持稳定经济增长。"高盛中国经济学家王立升在6 月25日举行的媒体见面会上表示。 他提到，当前外需仍具较强支撑，上半年中国GDP增速有望达5.2%，这一表现短期内降低了政策宽松 的紧迫性。目前政策宽松不仅仅是稳增长，也支持劳动力市场和稳信心。 高盛中国股票策略分析师付思指出，当前中国股市仍具备估值优势，维持对中国市场的超配建议。她认 为，7-8月关税政策与宏观调控的协同效果，将成为影响市场后续走势的关键变量。 此外，付思强调，私营企业的机会正逐步回归，高盛近期推出的对标美股"七巨头"的"民企10杰"组合具 备显著配置优势。 中国经济表现超预期 王立升表示，关税会影响美国经济下行，推动通胀上行。他预计，美联储首次降息可能始于今年12月， 后续在明年3月和6月或再分别降息，累计降息75个基点。 关于中国经济，他指出当前有两点表现超预期。 一是出口仍具韧性。他提到，高盛测算前5个月出口价格同比下降约5%，但出口数量同比增长约10%， 呈现"走量不走价"特征，与去年趋势相似，显示外需仍具支撑。 二是财政扩张力度显著 ...