新华社武汉8月2日电（记者张阳、邱婧熠）屹立在青藏高原的大小冰川，是"中华水塔"的重要组成部 分。全球气候变暖的背景下，这些冰川是否"健康"，如何为它们"体检"？记者近日跟随长江科学院组建 的江源科考队，来到位于唐古拉山脉的一处冰川，一起去探寻答案。 清晨6点半，天还未亮。科考队员驾车出发，行驶许久，远山的一点白变成眼前巨大的冰舌，科考队员已 抵达冬克玛底冰川脚下不远处。 冬克玛底冰川位于唐古拉山脉，是由一条朝南向的主冰川和一条朝向西南的支冰川汇流而成的复式山谷 冰川，主冰川末端海拔超5000米。该冰川已有超过35年的连续性观测记录，持续追踪其变化对分析长江 源地区的冰川演变规律有重要参考意义。 8月1日的冬克玛底冰川（无人机照片）。新华社发（李博远摄） 8月1日，科考队员们正在攀爬冬克玛底冰川。新华社记者 邱婧熠 摄 但是，对于冰川厚度，目前尚缺乏成熟的远程观测手段。因此，范越和张政等队员必须登上冰川，使用 探地雷达扫描冰川厚度。 登上冰川一处阶地后，他俩用安全绳拉着探地雷达，沿着冰川从下往上，扫描了约40米的距离。"这个过 程类似于为冰川做CT。"范越说，探测到了比较清晰的冰岩分界面，推测本次测量范围内冰 ...

Core Viewpoint - The white birch juice market is rapidly expanding, driven by increasing consumer interest and marketing efforts, but faces challenges related to standardization and sustainability [4][20][22]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Sales of white birch juice are booming, with both online and offline channels experiencing significant growth, aided by influencer marketing [5][9]. - The product is marketed as a premium beverage, often referred to as "liquid gold," with prices significantly higher than alternatives like coconut water, with a 50% price premium noted [2][17]. - Major beverage companies, including Nongfu Spring and Huiyuan, are entering the white birch juice market, indicating strong commercial interest [4][20]. Group 2: Product Characteristics and Consumer Perception - White birch juice is promoted for various health benefits, including detoxification and fatigue relief, although scientific validation of these claims is lacking [12][16]. - The taste and quality of white birch juice vary significantly due to differences in processing methods, which can affect consumer satisfaction [18][21]. - Consumers are drawn to the product due to its unique flavor and perceived health benefits, with some becoming loyal customers after initial trials [13][14]. Group 3: Industry Standards and Regulations - There is currently no unified national standard for white birch juice, leading to inconsistencies in product quality and labeling [20][21]. - A new group standard for natural white birch juice has been proposed, emphasizing the prohibition of additives and the preservation of natural components, but compliance is voluntary [20]. - The lack of stringent regulations allows for potential dilution and mislabeling of products, raising concerns among consumers and industry experts [19][21]. Group 4: Environmental Concerns - The increasing demand for white birch juice raises concerns about the sustainability of white birch resources, particularly in the context of climate change [22][25]. - Current studies indicate that climate change may threaten the long-term sustainability of white birch forests, with rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns affecting growth rates [25][28]. - Regulatory measures are being implemented to ensure sustainable harvesting practices, including restrictions on private collection of birch sap [28][29].

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 7月1日欧洲中期天气预报中心发布报告，表示欧洲大部分地区正经历大范围的高温天气，今年6月或成为 欧洲有记录以来最热6月之一，气候变化让热浪发生得更频繁、更强烈，影响范围也更广。 点评： 欧洲空调普及率远低于中美日 根据欧睿数据，24年西欧/东欧/中国/美国/日本家庭空调普及率分别为33%/36%/97%/92%/96%，其中分体 式空调普及率英国/法国/德国仅为0.7%/7%/0.7%。因为高安装费（空调售价1-2倍）、高电价（24年欧洲/ 西欧/德国居民电价分别为中国的2/4/4倍）、建筑和环境保护、租房比例高（欧盟1/3人口租房）等原因， 欧洲空调普及率大幅低于其他地区主要经济体。 持续极端高温强化空调刚需属性 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haier Smart Home (600690.SH) with a current price of 26.05 CNY and a target price of 35.54 CNY [1]. Core Views - Haier Smart Home is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for air conditioning in Europe due to climate change, with the company holding significant market shares in Eastern and Western Europe [5][6]. - The report highlights that the air conditioning penetration rate in Europe is significantly lower than in other major economies, indicating substantial growth potential [5]. - The extreme heat conditions in Europe are expected to further drive the demand for air conditioning, with projections showing a doubling of air conditioning units in the EU by 2050 [5][6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report notes that Haier's air conditioning business is experiencing significant growth, particularly in Eastern Europe where it holds a 34% market share, and 9% in Western Europe, ranking first and second respectively [6]. - The penetration rates for air conditioning in Western and Eastern Europe have increased by 8 and 11 percentage points compared to 2019 [5]. Financial Forecasts - The report projects Haier Smart Home's net profit for 2025 to be 21.5 billion CNY, with a corresponding PE ratio of 11 [7]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 261.43 billion CNY in 2023 to 307.31 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 7.46% [8]. Competitive Positioning - Haier's competitive advantage in Europe is attributed to its "three-in-one" strategy of localized R&D, manufacturing, and marketing, which has allowed it to adapt products to local needs effectively [6]. - The company has established a strong service network in Russia, with 196 service centers across more than 120 cities [6]. Industry Trends - The report emphasizes that the air conditioning market in Europe is underpenetrated compared to China (97%), the US (92%), and Japan (96%), suggesting a significant opportunity for growth [5][10]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that the number of air conditioning units in the EU will increase to 275 million by 2050, more than double the number in 2019 [5].

Core Points - The global climate is experiencing unprecedented heat waves, with June 2023 recorded as the third hottest since 1940, and Arctic sea ice extent down 6% from average, marking the second lowest for June in 47 years of satellite records [1][2] - The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reports that high temperatures are occurring earlier in the year, with Europe experiencing record-breaking heat, including temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius in multiple countries [2][3] - The extreme heat is attributed to climate change, leading to more frequent and intense heat waves, which pose significant challenges to public health and infrastructure [4][5] Group 1 - The heat wave affecting Europe originated from Africa, creating a "heat dome" effect that compresses air near the surface, resulting in increased temperatures [4] - Countries are implementing emergency measures to cope with the heat, including school closures, remote work policies, and the establishment of cooling centers for vulnerable populations [5][6] - Vulnerable groups, such as outdoor workers, the elderly, and children, face serious health risks during extreme heat events, necessitating public health strategies and early warning systems [6][7] Group 2 - The WMO emphasizes the need for accelerated climate action, focusing on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing resilience to extreme weather [7][8] - The upcoming COP30 conference in Brazil is expected to address national climate action plans and support for developing countries in combating climate change [8]

Core Insights - The prolonged high temperatures and drought in Germany have led to significant decreases in water levels across major rivers, particularly the Elbe River, which has reached its lowest levels since 2018 [1][7] - The average temperature in Germany has risen by 3.5 degrees Celsius compared to the same period from 1961 to 1990, contributing to the ongoing drought conditions [1] - Agricultural losses due to water shortages are estimated to be in the billions of euros, with crop yields declining and increased frequency of forest fires impacting timber production [1][9] Industry Impact - The low water levels in the Elbe River have severely affected shipping operations, with only two out of eleven ferries currently operational, leading to a shift from river transport to rail and road transport for goods [5][7] - The Rhine River is also experiencing low water levels, restricting vessels to carry only 30% to 50% of their intended cargo to avoid grounding, which increases transportation costs [9] - The German Meteorological Service predicts that climate change will lead to more frequent droughts, making low water levels a long-term challenge for the shipping and agricultural sectors [9]

Core Insights - Europe is experiencing widespread high temperatures, with June 2023 potentially being one of the hottest on record [1] - The heatwave is affecting various sectors, including education and tourism, leading to school closures and restricted access to popular attractions [3][5] - Climate change is contributing to the increased frequency and intensity of heatwaves across Europe [1] Weather Impact - France is facing peak temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius, resulting in the closure of approximately 1,350 schools [3] - The Eiffel Tower's top area was closed to visitors due to safety concerns related to the extreme heat [3] - In Spain, Seville is forecasted to reach 43 degrees Celsius, impacting both residents and tourists [7] Health and Safety Alerts - Multiple countries, including Italy, Greece, and Switzerland, have issued heat warnings urging the public to take precautions [11] - Germany is also experiencing significant heat, with temperatures in some areas reaching 38 degrees Celsius, and warnings of further increases [15][20] Ocean Temperature Concerns - The Mediterranean Sea has recorded unprecedented surface temperatures, averaging 3 to 6 degrees Celsius higher than the same period in previous years [12] - Experts warn that continued warming could lead to severe consequences for marine life and human activities in the region [14] Long-term Climate Trends - Germany's average temperature for June 2023 was reported at 18.5 degrees Celsius, 3.1 degrees higher than the historical reference value [22] - The ongoing heat and drought conditions have raised fire risk levels in German forests and disrupted shipping on the Rhine River [22]

Group 1 - Southern Europe is experiencing its first heatwave of the summer, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius in some areas, setting records for this time of year [1][3] - In Italy, 17 cities have issued red alerts for high temperatures, with the highest reaching 39 degrees Celsius [1][3] - Spain's meteorological agency predicts temperatures in many regions will surpass 40 degrees Celsius, with the province of Huelva recording 46 degrees Celsius, potentially breaking historical records [3][5] Group 2 - Portugal's meteorological department forecasts extreme heat and high wildfire risk for two-thirds of the country, with Lisbon expected to reach 42 degrees Celsius [5] - France has expanded its heat warning, with Marseille nearing 40 degrees Celsius, prompting local governments to open public pools and air-conditioned facilities for residents [5] - Researchers attribute the increasing frequency and severity of summer heatwaves in Europe to climate change, noting that Europe has warmed at approximately twice the global average rate since the 1980s [5][6]

Core Points - The EU scientists reported that May 2024 was the second hottest May on record globally, with Greenland experiencing unprecedented heat waves [1] - The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) indicated that the global surface temperature in May was 1.4 degrees Celsius higher than the pre-industrial period of 1850-1900, marking a significant increase due to fossil fuel combustion [1] - The report highlighted a temporary interruption in the trend of high temperatures, noting that 21 out of the last 22 months had global average temperatures exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, although this interruption is not expected to last [1] - C3S Director Carlo Buontempo warned that despite the temporary relief, average temperature changes are likely to exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold again in the near future due to ongoing climate system warming [1]

Core Viewpoint - The necessity of carbon reduction is emphasized as a self-driven initiative for China, rather than a response to external pressures [1] Group 1: Understanding Carbon and Its Implications - "Carbon" in the context of carbon reduction refers to greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide, which is closely linked to human activities [2] - The direct reason for carbon reduction is the threat of climate warming to human survival and civilization, with the UN warning of the direct link between increased greenhouse gas emissions and severe climate disasters [3] Group 2: International and Domestic Reasons for Carbon Reduction - Internationally, carbon reduction is essential for China to take on major country responsibilities and contribute to global environmental governance, enhancing its influence in the global environmental governance system [5] - Domestically, carbon reduction supports the green and low-carbon transformation of the economy, meeting the public's demand for a better ecological environment, and promoting sustainable development [6] Group 3: Economic and Environmental Benefits - The reduction of carbon emissions is linked to significant improvements in air quality, with PM2.5 concentrations in cities decreasing by over 30% from 2015 to 2023 [6] - China's renewable energy generation capacity is the largest globally, with a significant decrease in coal's share of energy consumption by 12.6 percentage points over the past decade [6] Group 4: Development and High-Quality Growth - The pursuit of carbon reduction aligns with the goal of achieving high-quality development, reflecting a transformation in development methods [8] - The commitment to carbon reduction remains steadfast despite some countries retreating from their commitments, indicating a focus on sustainable and high-quality growth [8]