公開臺北 2025 年 12 月 29 日 波段人分出品 相关研究 证券分析师 新院院 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 电力：国家能源局披露 11 月全社会用电量数据。 11 月单月全社会用电量 8356 亿千瓦时，同比增长 6.2%。其中第一、二、三产业和城乡居民生活用电量分别同比增长 7.9%、4.4%、10.3%、9.8%。二产 以最大的基数贡献了 49%的增幅贡献度，三产其次，居民的用电增幅贡献度较 10 月份有所放缓。根据 国家能源局数据，第三产业用电量在三个产业中增速最快。其中，与大数据分析、人工智能服务有关的 互联网数据服务业用电量增长较快。第二产业用电量占全社会用电量的比重超过了 60%，是用电量的最 大头。11 月，我国高技术及装备制造业用电量同比增长 6.7%，超出当月制造业平均增长水平 2.5 个百 分点，其中，汽车制造业用电量同比增速达到 10%。在汽车制造业用电量规模相对较大的省份中，浙 江、江苏、广东、安徽汽车制造业用电量增速均超过 10%。 天然气：圣诞假期欧美气价震荡，全国 LNG 出厂价延续跌势。截至 12 月 26 日，美国 Henry Hub 现货 0 价格为 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - TTF/JKM/HH: Bearish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the US natural gas market will shift from balance to surplus as supply growth outpaces demand growth [2][21][22] - European natural gas demand lacks incremental drivers, with overall stable consumption due to the absence of extremely cold winters and high gas prices [3][60] - The Chinese natural gas market will remain in a supply - surplus pattern in 2026, though demand may grow slightly more than in 2025 [4][98] - In 2026, the global natural gas market is in a capacity expansion cycle, and major economies face insufficient endogenous consumption growth. Key benchmark prices will face downward pressure [5][116] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 2025 Natural Gas Market Review - The gas price trend in 2025 was generally in line with the previous forecast. Nymex had the highest volatility, and its price was pushed to a high of 5.4 USD/MMBtu in December [15] - Demand in major consumption areas was weak. Chinese demand shifted from high - speed to low - speed growth, European consumption was stagnant, and US total demand growth was dragged down by negative growth in gas - fired power generation [18] - Supply was in the commissioning cycle. North American LNG liquefaction capacity was released in 2025, and there was a structural adjustment in supply between Asia and Europe [19] 3.2 2026 US Natural Gas Market: From Balance to Surplus 3.2.1 US LNG Exports in 2026 - LNG exports will still lead US demand growth, mainly due to partial commissioning of Golden Pass and the ramp - up of Corpus Christi stage 3 [22] - In 2025, US LNG exports increased by 22 million tons, with a significant increase to Europe and a decline to Asia. The US has become highly dependent on the European market [28] - In 2026, US liquefaction capacity will further grow with the commissioning of Golden Pass's first two liquefaction lines, and PNG exports to Mexico will also increase [37][38] 3.2.2 Gas - Fired Power in the Future - In 2025, US gas - fired power generation decreased in the first three quarters, mainly due to the reverse substitution of coal - fired power caused by high gas prices and the repair of coal - fired power ignition spread [39] - Renewable power, especially photovoltaics, will increasingly squeeze gas - fired power. The future new gas - fired power installations will have limited impact on demand [40][41] 3.2.3 US Dry Gas Production in 2026 - US dry gas production is expected to continue growing in 2026, though the growth rate may be lower than in 2025. The growth is related to capital expenditure inertia and price expectations [50] 3.3 Global LNG Expansion and Russia - EU Energy Decoupling - European natural gas demand remains stable overall, with limited growth in the residential, commercial and industrial sectors. However, gas - fired power demand has increased, especially in Germany and Poland [60][61][62] - European natural gas supply has undergone significant structural adjustments. Further energy decoupling between Russia and Europe is feasible due to sufficient supply from North America and the Middle East. But Russian LNG may put pressure on the spot market [63] 3.4 More Russian Supplies to Asia Affecting the Spot Market - Chinese natural gas demand entered a low - growth stage in 2025, with industrial demand declining and gas - fired power demand increasing. Supply from domestic production and pipeline imports has squeezed LNG imports [96][97] - In 2026, Chinese natural gas demand may grow slightly, but the market will still be in surplus. More Russian LNG flowing to Asia may depress the spot market price [98] - Japanese and South Korean gas demand has a limited impact on Northeast Asia, and overall Asian demand was weak in 2025 [99] 3.5 Investment Recommendations - In 2026, the main benchmark prices TTF, JKM, and HH will face downward pressure. TTF/JKM volatility will be significantly lower than Nymex, making Nymex more valuable for trading. The Nymex price may fall below 3 USD/MMBtu in 1H26 [5][116]