Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the power equipment and new energy sector [7] Core Insights - In 2025, global gas turbine demand is expected to reach 100GW, with a year-on-year growth of 75%, significantly exceeding initial expectations [1] - The U.S. market leads global gas turbine demand growth with a 159% year-on-year increase, accounting for 44% of total orders [1] - The report highlights a diversification trend in power supply solutions, with light gas turbines and internal combustion engines emerging as new options for data centers [3] Summary by Sections Global Gas Turbine Orders - In Q4 2025, global gas turbine new orders reached 34GW, marking a 134% increase year-on-year and a 42% increase quarter-on-quarter, the highest quarterly figure in a decade [1] - The three major manufacturers, GEV, Siemens Energy, and MHI, are expected to see significant order growth, with GEV and Siemens Energy increasing their orders by 48% and 197% respectively [1] Data Center Demand - Data center orders are driving up average sales prices, with Siemens Energy reporting that data centers contributed over 25% of their gas turbine agreements by the end of 2025 [2] - GEV and Siemens Energy achieved year-on-year improvements in operating profit margins, reaching 16.9% and 16.6% respectively [2] 2026 Outlook - The report anticipates continued double-digit year-on-year growth in global gas turbine new orders for 2026, with Siemens Energy projecting a 38% increase to 36GW [4] - The maturation of light gas and internal combustion engine solutions is expected to further boost order volumes [4] Key Investment Themes - The report identifies three main investment themes: overseas gas turbine demand growth, domestic supply chain expansion, and the externalization of gas turbine supply [9] - Companies such as GEV, Siemens Energy, and domestic manufacturers like Dongfang Electric are highlighted as key players benefiting from these trends [9]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for various sectors within the energy industry, particularly recommending companies involved in coal power, hydropower, nuclear power, green energy, and gas [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that in November 2025, the total electricity consumption reached 835.6 billion kWh, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. The growth contributions from the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries, as well as residential consumption, were 2%, 49%, 29%, and 19% respectively [4][6]. - The secondary industry remains the largest contributor to electricity consumption, accounting for over 60% of the total, with significant growth in high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors [5][6]. - Natural gas prices have shown fluctuations, with the U.S. Henry Hub spot price at $3.31/mmBtu, reflecting a weekly decline of 7.30%. The report notes that the domestic LNG ex-factory price is 3915 yuan/ton, down 2.85% week-on-week [1][16]. Summary by Sections Electricity Sector - In November 2025, the electricity consumption by the first, second, and third industries grew by 7.9%, 4.4%, and 10.3% respectively, while residential consumption increased by 9.8% [4][6]. - The high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors saw a 6.7% increase in electricity consumption, with automotive manufacturing leading at a 10% growth rate [5][6]. Natural Gas Sector - The report indicates that global gas prices are experiencing slight fluctuations, with the U.S. market showing a significant drop in spot prices. The report anticipates that the demand for natural gas will increase as winter approaches, potentially stabilizing prices [1][16]. - Recommendations include focusing on integrated gas companies and those benefiting from cost reductions and improved profitability due to lower oil prices [39][40]. Investment Recommendations - For coal power, companies like Guodian Power and Inner Mongolia Huadian are recommended due to their diversified revenue sources [1]. - Hydropower companies such as Yangtze Power and State Power Investment Corporation are favored due to expected improvements in profit margins from reduced capital expenditures [1]. - Nuclear power firms like China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are highlighted for their stable cost structures and growth potential [1]. - In the green energy sector, companies like Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power are recommended for their stable returns and increasing operational value [1]. - The report also suggests investment in gas companies like Shenzhen Energy and Kunlun Energy, which are expected to benefit from cost reductions and improved market conditions [1][39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - TTF/JKM/HH: Bearish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the US natural gas market will shift from balance to surplus as supply growth outpaces demand growth [2][21][22] - European natural gas demand lacks incremental drivers, with overall stable consumption due to the absence of extremely cold winters and high gas prices [3][60] - The Chinese natural gas market will remain in a supply - surplus pattern in 2026, though demand may grow slightly more than in 2025 [4][98] - In 2026, the global natural gas market is in a capacity expansion cycle, and major economies face insufficient endogenous consumption growth. Key benchmark prices will face downward pressure [5][116] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 2025 Natural Gas Market Review - The gas price trend in 2025 was generally in line with the previous forecast. Nymex had the highest volatility, and its price was pushed to a high of 5.4 USD/MMBtu in December [15] - Demand in major consumption areas was weak. Chinese demand shifted from high - speed to low - speed growth, European consumption was stagnant, and US total demand growth was dragged down by negative growth in gas - fired power generation [18] - Supply was in the commissioning cycle. North American LNG liquefaction capacity was released in 2025, and there was a structural adjustment in supply between Asia and Europe [19] 3.2 2026 US Natural Gas Market: From Balance to Surplus 3.2.1 US LNG Exports in 2026 - LNG exports will still lead US demand growth, mainly due to partial commissioning of Golden Pass and the ramp - up of Corpus Christi stage 3 [22] - In 2025, US LNG exports increased by 22 million tons, with a significant increase to Europe and a decline to Asia. The US has become highly dependent on the European market [28] - In 2026, US liquefaction capacity will further grow with the commissioning of Golden Pass's first two liquefaction lines, and PNG exports to Mexico will also increase [37][38] 3.2.2 Gas - Fired Power in the Future - In 2025, US gas - fired power generation decreased in the first three quarters, mainly due to the reverse substitution of coal - fired power caused by high gas prices and the repair of coal - fired power ignition spread [39] - Renewable power, especially photovoltaics, will increasingly squeeze gas - fired power. The future new gas - fired power installations will have limited impact on demand [40][41] 3.2.3 US Dry Gas Production in 2026 - US dry gas production is expected to continue growing in 2026, though the growth rate may be lower than in 2025. The growth is related to capital expenditure inertia and price expectations [50] 3.3 Global LNG Expansion and Russia - EU Energy Decoupling - European natural gas demand remains stable overall, with limited growth in the residential, commercial and industrial sectors. However, gas - fired power demand has increased, especially in Germany and Poland [60][61][62] - European natural gas supply has undergone significant structural adjustments. Further energy decoupling between Russia and Europe is feasible due to sufficient supply from North America and the Middle East. But Russian LNG may put pressure on the spot market [63] 3.4 More Russian Supplies to Asia Affecting the Spot Market - Chinese natural gas demand entered a low - growth stage in 2025, with industrial demand declining and gas - fired power demand increasing. Supply from domestic production and pipeline imports has squeezed LNG imports [96][97] - In 2026, Chinese natural gas demand may grow slightly, but the market will still be in surplus. More Russian LNG flowing to Asia may depress the spot market price [98] - Japanese and South Korean gas demand has a limited impact on Northeast Asia, and overall Asian demand was weak in 2025 [99] 3.5 Investment Recommendations - In 2026, the main benchmark prices TTF, JKM, and HH will face downward pressure. TTF/JKM volatility will be significantly lower than Nymex, making Nymex more valuable for trading. The Nymex price may fall below 3 USD/MMBtu in 1H26 [5][116]