2025 年 09 月 01 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) [Table_Title] 煤价下降&风电并表装机增长， 公司业绩稳健增长 ——中国电力（02380）动态点评报告 最近一年走势 | 相对恒生指数表现 | | | 2025/08/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 中国电力 | -0.9% | 2.7% | -5.9% | | 恒生指数 | -1.8% | 6.4% | 41.0% | | 市场数据 | 2025/08/29 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（港元） | 3.13 | | 周价格区间（港元） 52 | 2.73-4.00 | | 总市值（百万港元） | 38,718.57 | | 流通市值（百万港元） | 38,718.57 | | 总股本（万股） | 1,237,015.10 | | 流通股本（万股） | 1,237,015.10 | | 日均成交额（百万港元） | 62.69 | | 近一月换手（%） | 0.23 | 研究所： 证券分析师： 钟琪 S0350523080002 zhong ...

证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 08 26 年 月 日 皖能电力（000543.SZ） 新机组投产贡献增量，Q2 业绩同比增长 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。报告期内，公司实现营业收入 131.85 亿元，同比减少 5.83%；归母净利润 10.82 亿元，同比增长 1.05%；基本 每股收益 0.48 元，同比增长 2.13%。单二季度，实现营业收入 67.66 亿 元，同比减少 3.57%；归母净利润 6.38 亿元，同比增长 3.26%。营收下 降主要系安徽省火电发电量与电价双跌，公司成本改善&新机组投产拉动 业绩增长。 省内量价承压，钱营孜二期投产对冲量价下滑。2025 上半年安徽省地区 生产总值 25723 亿元，按不变价格计算同比增长 5.6%，高于全国 5.3% 的增速；安徽省上半年用电量增速 2.6%，低于全社会平均 3.7%增速，主 要系 2024 上半年高增速（13.3%）导致基数较高。2025 上半年安徽省火 电发电量 1384 亿千瓦时，同比下降 7.9%，火电平均利用小时数 2190 小 时，同比降低 10.4%。电价方面，安徽省 2025 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The recent rebound in market coal prices, with Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal prices rising from 609 CNY/ton in early June to 698 CNY/ton by August 15, indicates that coal power profitability is expected to continue growing in the second half of the year. Long-term, there is significant potential for improved stability in coal power profitability with the anticipated increase in capacity electricity prices in 2026 and beyond [2]. - The company reported a revenue of 11.113 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.28%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 899 million CNY, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 157.96% [5]. - The company plans to raise up to 2 billion CNY through a private placement to fund the construction of the Xibaipo Power Plant Phase IV project, which will add significant coal power capacity [5]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 23.40% and a net margin of 11.82%, both showing significant year-on-year improvements [5]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) was 8.18%, up by 4.89 percentage points year-on-year, and cash flow from operations increased by 130.57% to 1.728 billion CNY [5]. - The company’s total installed coal power capacity is currently 11.77 million kW, with plans for significant increases in capacity by 2026 [5]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.403 billion CNY, 1.545 billion CNY, and 1.672 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 9.6, 8.7, and 8.1 [5][6]. - Revenue is expected to decline slightly in 2025 and 2026 before rebounding in 2027, with a forecasted revenue of 22.881 billion CNY in 2025 [6][8].

Core Viewpoint - Southwest Securities issued a report on August 1, giving Huaneng International (600011.SH) a "buy" rating based on several positive factors [2]. Group 1: Rating Justifications - Low coal prices are mitigating the risk of declining electricity prices, leading to steady profit growth in coal power generation [2]. - Accelerated construction of wind and solar energy projects is resulting in a significant increase in on-grid electricity volume [2]. - Performance in Singapore and Pakistan showed a year-on-year change of -20.9% and +1.6%, respectively [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5][5]. Core Views - The company's profitability from coal power continues to improve, with a significant increase in net profit in the second quarter of 2025, driven by a decrease in coal prices [1][2]. - The company has accelerated its renewable energy construction, achieving 62.6% of its annual new installed capacity target in the first half of 2025 [3]. - The overall profit trend for 2025 is expected to remain positive, supported by rising electricity demand during peak summer periods [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 1120.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 92.62 billion yuan, an increase of 24.3% [1]. - In the second quarter of 2025, revenue was 516.97 billion yuan, down 3.3% year-on-year, with net profit of 42.89 billion yuan, up 50.1% year-on-year [1]. Coal Power Segment - The coal power segment saw a total profit per kilowatt-hour increase of 2.9 cents year-on-year, despite a slight decrease in electricity prices and a 7.1% drop in electricity generation [2]. - The profit per kilowatt-hour for coal power in the second quarter of 2025 was 4.4 cents, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.9 cents [2]. Renewable Energy Segment - The company completed 62.6% of its annual new installed capacity target in the first half of 2025, with a total of 6262.91 MW of new wind and solar capacity [3]. - The total profit from wind and solar energy in the second quarter of 2025 was 29.17 billion yuan, slightly exceeding expectations due to higher-than-expected solar capacity additions [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is maintained at 125 billion yuan, with a target price of 9.02 yuan per share for A-shares and 5.97 HKD for H-shares [4][5]. - The company is valued at a PE ratio of 20.0x and a PB ratio of 0.98x, reflecting a premium due to stronger profitability in renewable energy and robust performance in coal power auxiliary services [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company's coal-fired power generation volume decreased by 3.46% year-on-year in Q2, but the decline was significantly narrower compared to Q1. Gas-fired power generation increased by 9.16% year-on-year. The average on-grid electricity price in Q2 was 0.482 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 0.017 yuan/kWh year-on-year. The average price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal fell by 216.84 yuan/ton year-on-year, which will effectively alleviate the pressure from the decline in volume and price, leading to an expected improvement in coal-fired power performance in Q2. The rapid growth of renewable energy generation, driven by continuous capacity expansion, is also a positive factor for the company's performance outlook [2][12]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q2 2025, the company achieved an on-grid electricity volume of 99.049 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 1.44%. However, the total on-grid electricity volume for the first half of 2025 was 205.683 billion kWh, a decrease of 2.37% year-on-year. The average on-grid settlement price for the first half of 2025 was 485.27 yuan/MWh, down 2.69% year-on-year [6]. Cost and Pricing Analysis - The overall coal price has shown a downward trend in 2025, with the average price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal at 631.61 yuan/ton in Q2, down 216.84 yuan/ton year-on-year. This significant reduction in costs is expected to alleviate the pressure from declining volume and price, leading to an improvement in the company's coal-fired power performance [12][12]. Renewable Energy Growth - The company added 1.0248 million kW of wind power and 2.8028 million kW of solar power in Q2 2025. By the end of June 2025, the total installed capacity for wind and solar power is expected to reach 20.04 million kW and 24.17 million kW, representing year-on-year growth of 21.31% and 60.18%, respectively. The rapid growth in renewable energy generation is anticipated to support stable performance in the company's renewable energy business [12][12]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 0.78 yuan, 0.84 yuan, and 0.91 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 9.02, 8.40, and 7.79 [12].