Group 1: Technical Analysis of Bond Market - The bond market has completed a "five-wave" cycle and is now transitioning into an adjustment phase, characterized by an "M-top" formation [5][6] - The first wave (March to August 2023) saw a strong bond market due to the end of redemption pressures and weak economic expectations, while the second wave (August to October 2023) experienced a pullback due to profit-taking and local debt supply pressures [5] - Historical comparisons indicate that the decline following the "M-top" formation typically ranges from 30% to 35% of the previous gains [6] Group 2: Global Power Supply and Coal Industry - The global electricity demand is expected to grow at a rate of 4.4% in 2024, significantly outpacing the global GDP growth of 2.9%, driven by industrial electrification, AI-driven data center expansion, and extreme weather impacts [11][12] - Structural bottlenecks in the power supply have not been effectively addressed, leading to a disconnect between electricity generation and availability despite advancements in renewable energy [12] - Coal power remains a critical component of the global energy system, with the U.S. expected to see a 15% increase in coal-fired power generation in 2025, marking a shift in energy development strategies in developed countries [13] Group 3: Solid-State Battery Investment Opportunities - Solid-state batteries are anticipated to become a key focus in high-performance battery development due to their safety and energy density advantages, with significant market potential in consumer batteries and electric vehicles [18] - The Chinese government is investing approximately 6 billion yuan to support solid-state battery research, indicating strong policy backing for this technology [18] - The transition from semi-solid to solid-state battery technology is expected to accelerate, with major automotive and battery companies planning to demonstrate solid-state battery applications by 2027 [20]

Group 1 - Harbin Electric's stock has increased nearly 7%, with a year-to-date gain exceeding 325% [1] - The company reported total revenue of approximately 22.696 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.49%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of about 1.051 billion yuan, up 101.06% [1] - UBS forecasts an average annual growth rate of 25% for nuclear equipment gross profit from 2025 to 2028, estimating that each new small modular reactor (SMR) could bring an additional revenue potential of approximately 620 million yuan to Harbin Electric [1] Group 2 - Guoyuan International's report indicates that Harbin Electric has a robust order backlog in its coal power business, with improved order quality compared to the previous cycle, which will continue to enhance the company's profits [2] - In hydropower, orders from pumped storage projects are entering the execution phase, and new capacity is beginning to be released, with large hydropower projects expected to benefit from demand growth driven by the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project [2] - The market's approval of nuclear power projects has increased from about 5 units per year from 2019 to 2021 to around 10 units per year from 2022 to 2025, with related orders for the company gradually entering the execution phase [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][8] Core Insights - The company's performance is expected to grow steadily due to the decline in coal prices and the increase in wind power installations [2][6] - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 23.86 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.59 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [6] - The decline in revenue is attributed to a significant drop in fire power revenue and water power revenue due to operational changes and adverse weather conditions [6] - The net profit from fire power, water power, wind power, and solar power for H1 2025 was 1.43 billion, 0.55 billion, 2.12 billion, and 0.72 billion respectively, showing varied performance across segments [6] - The company added 4.5 GW of new renewable energy capacity in H1 2025 [6] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 54.7 billion, 57.6 billion, and 60.5 billion respectively, with net profits of 3.77 billion, 3.81 billion, and 3.89 billion [6][7] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to remain stable at 9 times for the next three years [6][8] - The company’s coal power profit per kilowatt-hour increased by 1.9 cents to 5.8 cents per kilowatt-hour in H1 2025 [6]

证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 08 26 年 月 日 皖能电力（000543.SZ） 新机组投产贡献增量，Q2 业绩同比增长 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。报告期内，公司实现营业收入 131.85 亿元，同比减少 5.83%；归母净利润 10.82 亿元，同比增长 1.05%；基本 每股收益 0.48 元，同比增长 2.13%。单二季度，实现营业收入 67.66 亿 元，同比减少 3.57%；归母净利润 6.38 亿元，同比增长 3.26%。营收下 降主要系安徽省火电发电量与电价双跌，公司成本改善&新机组投产拉动 业绩增长。 省内量价承压，钱营孜二期投产对冲量价下滑。2025 上半年安徽省地区 生产总值 25723 亿元，按不变价格计算同比增长 5.6%，高于全国 5.3% 的增速；安徽省上半年用电量增速 2.6%，低于全社会平均 3.7%增速，主 要系 2024 上半年高增速（13.3%）导致基数较高。2025 上半年安徽省火 电发电量 1384 亿千瓦时，同比下降 7.9%，火电平均利用小时数 2190 小 时，同比降低 10.4%。电价方面，安徽省 2025 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The recent rebound in market coal prices, with Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal prices rising from 609 CNY/ton in early June to 698 CNY/ton by August 15, indicates that coal power profitability is expected to continue growing in the second half of the year. Long-term, there is significant potential for improved stability in coal power profitability with the anticipated increase in capacity electricity prices in 2026 and beyond [2]. - The company reported a revenue of 11.113 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.28%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 899 million CNY, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 157.96% [5]. - The company plans to raise up to 2 billion CNY through a private placement to fund the construction of the Xibaipo Power Plant Phase IV project, which will add significant coal power capacity [5]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 23.40% and a net margin of 11.82%, both showing significant year-on-year improvements [5]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) was 8.18%, up by 4.89 percentage points year-on-year, and cash flow from operations increased by 130.57% to 1.728 billion CNY [5]. - The company’s total installed coal power capacity is currently 11.77 million kW, with plans for significant increases in capacity by 2026 [5]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.403 billion CNY, 1.545 billion CNY, and 1.672 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 9.6, 8.7, and 8.1 [5][6]. - Revenue is expected to decline slightly in 2025 and 2026 before rebounding in 2027, with a forecasted revenue of 22.881 billion CNY in 2025 [6][8].

Core Viewpoint - Southwest Securities issued a report on August 1, giving Huaneng International (600011.SH) a "buy" rating based on several positive factors [2]. Group 1: Rating Justifications - Low coal prices are mitigating the risk of declining electricity prices, leading to steady profit growth in coal power generation [2]. - Accelerated construction of wind and solar energy projects is resulting in a significant increase in on-grid electricity volume [2]. - Performance in Singapore and Pakistan showed a year-on-year change of -20.9% and +1.6%, respectively [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5][5]. Core Views - The company's profitability from coal power continues to improve, with a significant increase in net profit in the second quarter of 2025, driven by a decrease in coal prices [1][2]. - The company has accelerated its renewable energy construction, achieving 62.6% of its annual new installed capacity target in the first half of 2025 [3]. - The overall profit trend for 2025 is expected to remain positive, supported by rising electricity demand during peak summer periods [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 1120.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 92.62 billion yuan, an increase of 24.3% [1]. - In the second quarter of 2025, revenue was 516.97 billion yuan, down 3.3% year-on-year, with net profit of 42.89 billion yuan, up 50.1% year-on-year [1]. Coal Power Segment - The coal power segment saw a total profit per kilowatt-hour increase of 2.9 cents year-on-year, despite a slight decrease in electricity prices and a 7.1% drop in electricity generation [2]. - The profit per kilowatt-hour for coal power in the second quarter of 2025 was 4.4 cents, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.9 cents [2]. Renewable Energy Segment - The company completed 62.6% of its annual new installed capacity target in the first half of 2025, with a total of 6262.91 MW of new wind and solar capacity [3]. - The total profit from wind and solar energy in the second quarter of 2025 was 29.17 billion yuan, slightly exceeding expectations due to higher-than-expected solar capacity additions [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is maintained at 125 billion yuan, with a target price of 9.02 yuan per share for A-shares and 5.97 HKD for H-shares [4][5]. - The company is valued at a PE ratio of 20.0x and a PB ratio of 0.98x, reflecting a premium due to stronger profitability in renewable energy and robust performance in coal power auxiliary services [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company's coal-fired power generation volume decreased by 3.46% year-on-year in Q2, but the decline was significantly narrower compared to Q1. Gas-fired power generation increased by 9.16% year-on-year. The average on-grid electricity price in Q2 was 0.482 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 0.017 yuan/kWh year-on-year. The average price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal fell by 216.84 yuan/ton year-on-year, which will effectively alleviate the pressure from the decline in volume and price, leading to an expected improvement in coal-fired power performance in Q2. The rapid growth of renewable energy generation, driven by continuous capacity expansion, is also a positive factor for the company's performance outlook [2][12]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q2 2025, the company achieved an on-grid electricity volume of 99.049 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 1.44%. However, the total on-grid electricity volume for the first half of 2025 was 205.683 billion kWh, a decrease of 2.37% year-on-year. The average on-grid settlement price for the first half of 2025 was 485.27 yuan/MWh, down 2.69% year-on-year [6]. Cost and Pricing Analysis - The overall coal price has shown a downward trend in 2025, with the average price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal at 631.61 yuan/ton in Q2, down 216.84 yuan/ton year-on-year. This significant reduction in costs is expected to alleviate the pressure from declining volume and price, leading to an improvement in the company's coal-fired power performance [12][12]. Renewable Energy Growth - The company added 1.0248 million kW of wind power and 2.8028 million kW of solar power in Q2 2025. By the end of June 2025, the total installed capacity for wind and solar power is expected to reach 20.04 million kW and 24.17 million kW, representing year-on-year growth of 21.31% and 60.18%, respectively. The rapid growth in renewable energy generation is anticipated to support stable performance in the company's renewable energy business [12][12]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 0.78 yuan, 0.84 yuan, and 0.91 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 9.02, 8.40, and 7.79 [12].