1. Report Industry Investment Rating - TTF/JKM/HH: Bearish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the US natural gas market will shift from balance to surplus as supply growth outpaces demand growth [2][21][22] - European natural gas demand lacks incremental drivers, with overall stable consumption due to the absence of extremely cold winters and high gas prices [3][60] - The Chinese natural gas market will remain in a supply - surplus pattern in 2026, though demand may grow slightly more than in 2025 [4][98] - In 2026, the global natural gas market is in a capacity expansion cycle, and major economies face insufficient endogenous consumption growth. Key benchmark prices will face downward pressure [5][116] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 2025 Natural Gas Market Review - The gas price trend in 2025 was generally in line with the previous forecast. Nymex had the highest volatility, and its price was pushed to a high of 5.4 USD/MMBtu in December [15] - Demand in major consumption areas was weak. Chinese demand shifted from high - speed to low - speed growth, European consumption was stagnant, and US total demand growth was dragged down by negative growth in gas - fired power generation [18] - Supply was in the commissioning cycle. North American LNG liquefaction capacity was released in 2025, and there was a structural adjustment in supply between Asia and Europe [19] 3.2 2026 US Natural Gas Market: From Balance to Surplus 3.2.1 US LNG Exports in 2026 - LNG exports will still lead US demand growth, mainly due to partial commissioning of Golden Pass and the ramp - up of Corpus Christi stage 3 [22] - In 2025, US LNG exports increased by 22 million tons, with a significant increase to Europe and a decline to Asia. The US has become highly dependent on the European market [28] - In 2026, US liquefaction capacity will further grow with the commissioning of Golden Pass's first two liquefaction lines, and PNG exports to Mexico will also increase [37][38] 3.2.2 Gas - Fired Power in the Future - In 2025, US gas - fired power generation decreased in the first three quarters, mainly due to the reverse substitution of coal - fired power caused by high gas prices and the repair of coal - fired power ignition spread [39] - Renewable power, especially photovoltaics, will increasingly squeeze gas - fired power. The future new gas - fired power installations will have limited impact on demand [40][41] 3.2.3 US Dry Gas Production in 2026 - US dry gas production is expected to continue growing in 2026, though the growth rate may be lower than in 2025. The growth is related to capital expenditure inertia and price expectations [50] 3.3 Global LNG Expansion and Russia - EU Energy Decoupling - European natural gas demand remains stable overall, with limited growth in the residential, commercial and industrial sectors. However, gas - fired power demand has increased, especially in Germany and Poland [60][61][62] - European natural gas supply has undergone significant structural adjustments. Further energy decoupling between Russia and Europe is feasible due to sufficient supply from North America and the Middle East. But Russian LNG may put pressure on the spot market [63] 3.4 More Russian Supplies to Asia Affecting the Spot Market - Chinese natural gas demand entered a low - growth stage in 2025, with industrial demand declining and gas - fired power demand increasing. Supply from domestic production and pipeline imports has squeezed LNG imports [96][97] - In 2026, Chinese natural gas demand may grow slightly, but the market will still be in surplus. More Russian LNG flowing to Asia may depress the spot market price [98] - Japanese and South Korean gas demand has a limited impact on Northeast Asia, and overall Asian demand was weak in 2025 [99] 3.5 Investment Recommendations - In 2026, the main benchmark prices TTF, JKM, and HH will face downward pressure. TTF/JKM volatility will be significantly lower than Nymex, making Nymex more valuable for trading. The Nymex price may fall below 3 USD/MMBtu in 1H26 [5][116]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, with a net profit increase of 51.48% year-on-year, despite a slight decline in revenue [1][6] - The resilience of coal power generation and significant growth in hydro and wind power generation contributed to the strong performance, even as the average on-grid electricity price continued to decline [6] - The company has improved its profitability levels, with a gross margin of 19.41% and a net margin of 10.54% for the first three quarters [6] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 122.404 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5% [2] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated to reach 6.569 billion yuan, reflecting a 46% increase compared to the previous year [2] - The current PE ratio is 10.8, with projections for 2026 and 2027 at 10.2 and 9.5 respectively [2][10] Performance Metrics - The company achieved an on-grid electricity volume of 822.48 billion kWh in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [6] - The average on-grid electricity price for the first three quarters was 430.19 yuan per MWh, down 4.32% year-on-year [6] - The company's financial expenses decreased by 17.7% year-on-year, further enhancing profitability [6] Shareholder Information - The major shareholder is China Datang Corporation, holding a 35.34% stake in the company [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" for both A-shares and H-shares, with target prices of RMB 9.47 and HKD 7.33 respectively [6]. Core Views - The report highlights strong profitability in coal power generation and emphasizes the company's high dividend value, projecting a dividend payout ratio of 58.8% for 2024 and a potential dividend yield of 5.37% for A-shares and 7.55% for H-shares in 2025 [1][4]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 60.943 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 7.09% but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 17.88%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 5.579 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 88.54% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 30.07% [1]. - For the first nine months of 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 172.975 billion, down 6.19% year-over-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 14.841 billion, up 42.52% year-over-year [1]. Coal Power Performance - The total profit per kilowatt-hour for coal power increased by 2.8 fen to 5.1 fen year-over-year in the first nine months of 2025, with Q3 2025 showing a total profit of 6.0 fen per kilowatt-hour, up 3.6 fen year-over-year and 1.5 fen quarter-over-quarter [2]. - The decrease in the benchmark coal price significantly contributed to the profit increase, with a 148% year-over-year rise in profit mainly due to a reduction in coal prices [2]. New Energy Sector Insights - In Q3 2025, the company added 569.14 MW of new wind and solar capacity, a significant decrease from the 6262.91 MW added in the first half of 2025. The profit from wind energy decreased by 38.5% year-over-year, while solar energy profits increased by 25.2% due to higher installation rates [3]. - The report notes that the decline in electricity prices has negatively impacted the profit per kilowatt-hour for wind energy, which fell by 5.9 fen year-over-year [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the company's asset impairment loss expectations for 2025-2027 down by approximately 44.8% to 44.9%, leading to an upward revision of net profit forecasts for the same period by 11.7% to 10.5% [4]. - The estimated net profit for 2025 is projected at RMB 14 billion, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.0x for new energy and a price-to-book ratio of 1.05x, resulting in a target market value of RMB 148.7 billion [4][17].

Group 1: Technical Analysis of Bond Market - The bond market has completed a "five-wave" cycle and is now transitioning into an adjustment phase, characterized by an "M-top" formation [5][6] - The first wave (March to August 2023) saw a strong bond market due to the end of redemption pressures and weak economic expectations, while the second wave (August to October 2023) experienced a pullback due to profit-taking and local debt supply pressures [5] - Historical comparisons indicate that the decline following the "M-top" formation typically ranges from 30% to 35% of the previous gains [6] Group 2: Global Power Supply and Coal Industry - The global electricity demand is expected to grow at a rate of 4.4% in 2024, significantly outpacing the global GDP growth of 2.9%, driven by industrial electrification, AI-driven data center expansion, and extreme weather impacts [11][12] - Structural bottlenecks in the power supply have not been effectively addressed, leading to a disconnect between electricity generation and availability despite advancements in renewable energy [12] - Coal power remains a critical component of the global energy system, with the U.S. expected to see a 15% increase in coal-fired power generation in 2025, marking a shift in energy development strategies in developed countries [13] Group 3: Solid-State Battery Investment Opportunities - Solid-state batteries are anticipated to become a key focus in high-performance battery development due to their safety and energy density advantages, with significant market potential in consumer batteries and electric vehicles [18] - The Chinese government is investing approximately 6 billion yuan to support solid-state battery research, indicating strong policy backing for this technology [18] - The transition from semi-solid to solid-state battery technology is expected to accelerate, with major automotive and battery companies planning to demonstrate solid-state battery applications by 2027 [20]

Group 1 - Harbin Electric's stock has increased nearly 7%, with a year-to-date gain exceeding 325% [1] - The company reported total revenue of approximately 22.696 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.49%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of about 1.051 billion yuan, up 101.06% [1] - UBS forecasts an average annual growth rate of 25% for nuclear equipment gross profit from 2025 to 2028, estimating that each new small modular reactor (SMR) could bring an additional revenue potential of approximately 620 million yuan to Harbin Electric [1] Group 2 - Guoyuan International's report indicates that Harbin Electric has a robust order backlog in its coal power business, with improved order quality compared to the previous cycle, which will continue to enhance the company's profits [2] - In hydropower, orders from pumped storage projects are entering the execution phase, and new capacity is beginning to be released, with large hydropower projects expected to benefit from demand growth driven by the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project [2] - The market's approval of nuclear power projects has increased from about 5 units per year from 2019 to 2021 to around 10 units per year from 2022 to 2025, with related orders for the company gradually entering the execution phase [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][8] Core Insights - The company's performance is expected to grow steadily due to the decline in coal prices and the increase in wind power installations [2][6] - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 23.86 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.59 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [6] - The decline in revenue is attributed to a significant drop in fire power revenue and water power revenue due to operational changes and adverse weather conditions [6] - The net profit from fire power, water power, wind power, and solar power for H1 2025 was 1.43 billion, 0.55 billion, 2.12 billion, and 0.72 billion respectively, showing varied performance across segments [6] - The company added 4.5 GW of new renewable energy capacity in H1 2025 [6] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 54.7 billion, 57.6 billion, and 60.5 billion respectively, with net profits of 3.77 billion, 3.81 billion, and 3.89 billion [6][7] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to remain stable at 9 times for the next three years [6][8] - The company’s coal power profit per kilowatt-hour increased by 1.9 cents to 5.8 cents per kilowatt-hour in H1 2025 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 13.185 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.83%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1.05% to 1.082 billion yuan [1]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to a drop in both power generation and electricity prices in Anhui province, but cost improvements and the commissioning of new units have driven profit growth [1][3]. - The company’s gross profit margin for its power generation business improved to 18.63%, a 35.89% increase year-on-year, due to falling coal prices and optimized costs [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 6.766 billion yuan, down 3.57% year-on-year, while net profit rose by 3.26% to 638 million yuan [1]. - The average electricity price in Anhui province for 2025 is approximately 413 yuan/MWh, a decrease of 5.4% from 2024 [2]. - The company’s net profit from its coal power operations in Anhui for the first half of 2025 was 555 million yuan, a slight decline of 0.61% year-on-year [2]. Cost and Profitability - The average coal price in the Bohai Rim region was 663 yuan/ton as of June 25, 2025, down 5.7% since the beginning of the year [3]. - The company’s sales, management, and financial expenses for the first half of 2025 were 95.7 million, 820.3 million, and 406.07 million yuan, reflecting changes of -7.43%, +0.7%, and -5.36% respectively [3]. Strategic Developments - The commissioning of the Qianyingzi Phase II unit in March 2025 has helped offset the decline in volume and price in the province [2]. - The company has deepened its strategic layout in Xinjiang, with the new Yinggema power plant contributing to performance growth [3]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 29.062 billion, 29.625 billion, and 29.575 billion yuan respectively, with expected year-on-year growth rates of -3.4%, 1.9%, and -0.2% [4][5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 2.120 billion, 2.346 billion, and 2.409 billion yuan for the same years, with corresponding EPS of 0.94, 1.04, and 1.06 yuan per share [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The recent rebound in market coal prices, with Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal prices rising from 609 CNY/ton in early June to 698 CNY/ton by August 15, indicates that coal power profitability is expected to continue growing in the second half of the year. Long-term, there is significant potential for improved stability in coal power profitability with the anticipated increase in capacity electricity prices in 2026 and beyond [2]. - The company reported a revenue of 11.113 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.28%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 899 million CNY, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 157.96% [5]. - The company plans to raise up to 2 billion CNY through a private placement to fund the construction of the Xibaipo Power Plant Phase IV project, which will add significant coal power capacity [5]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 23.40% and a net margin of 11.82%, both showing significant year-on-year improvements [5]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) was 8.18%, up by 4.89 percentage points year-on-year, and cash flow from operations increased by 130.57% to 1.728 billion CNY [5]. - The company’s total installed coal power capacity is currently 11.77 million kW, with plans for significant increases in capacity by 2026 [5]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.403 billion CNY, 1.545 billion CNY, and 1.672 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 9.6, 8.7, and 8.1 [5][6]. - Revenue is expected to decline slightly in 2025 and 2026 before rebounding in 2027, with a forecasted revenue of 22.881 billion CNY in 2025 [6][8].

Core Viewpoint - Southwest Securities issued a report on August 1, giving Huaneng International (600011.SH) a "buy" rating based on several positive factors [2]. Group 1: Rating Justifications - Low coal prices are mitigating the risk of declining electricity prices, leading to steady profit growth in coal power generation [2]. - Accelerated construction of wind and solar energy projects is resulting in a significant increase in on-grid electricity volume [2]. - Performance in Singapore and Pakistan showed a year-on-year change of -20.9% and +1.6%, respectively [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5][5]. Core Views - The company's profitability from coal power continues to improve, with a significant increase in net profit in the second quarter of 2025, driven by a decrease in coal prices [1][2]. - The company has accelerated its renewable energy construction, achieving 62.6% of its annual new installed capacity target in the first half of 2025 [3]. - The overall profit trend for 2025 is expected to remain positive, supported by rising electricity demand during peak summer periods [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 1120.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 92.62 billion yuan, an increase of 24.3% [1]. - In the second quarter of 2025, revenue was 516.97 billion yuan, down 3.3% year-on-year, with net profit of 42.89 billion yuan, up 50.1% year-on-year [1]. Coal Power Segment - The coal power segment saw a total profit per kilowatt-hour increase of 2.9 cents year-on-year, despite a slight decrease in electricity prices and a 7.1% drop in electricity generation [2]. - The profit per kilowatt-hour for coal power in the second quarter of 2025 was 4.4 cents, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.9 cents [2]. Renewable Energy Segment - The company completed 62.6% of its annual new installed capacity target in the first half of 2025, with a total of 6262.91 MW of new wind and solar capacity [3]. - The total profit from wind and solar energy in the second quarter of 2025 was 29.17 billion yuan, slightly exceeding expectations due to higher-than-expected solar capacity additions [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is maintained at 125 billion yuan, with a target price of 9.02 yuan per share for A-shares and 5.97 HKD for H-shares [4][5]. - The company is valued at a PE ratio of 20.0x and a PB ratio of 0.98x, reflecting a premium due to stronger profitability in renewable energy and robust performance in coal power auxiliary services [4].