| 投资者关系活动 | √特定对象调研□分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 类别 | □媒体采访□业绩说明会 | | | □新闻发布会□路演活动 | | | □现场参观 | | | □其他（请文字说明其他活动内容） | | 参与单位名称及 | 中信证券李想朱翀佚 | | 人员姓名 | | | 时间 | 2025 年 7 月 22 日 (周二) 下午 15:30~16:40 | | 地点 | 公司通过腾讯会议参加 | | 上市公司接待人 | 1、总会计师王晓华 | | 员姓名 | 2、董事会秘书姚健 | | | 公司就中信证券研究员提出的问题进行了回复： | | | 1．公司的煤炭采购来源、长协及现货的构成比例及定价原 | | | 则? | | | 答：煤炭采购以集团长协煤为主，占比一般在 85%左右，2022 | | 年 | 5 月份以来执行国家发改委中长协电煤指导价。市场煤作为补 | | | 充，随行就市，以质定价。 | | | 2．公司 2024 年，2025Q1 以及最新的入炉标煤单价以及燃 | | 投资者关系活动 | 料成本在什么水平？ | | 主要内容介绍 | 答：受煤炭市场供需关系转换 ...

中国神华（601088.SH）首次覆盖报告 煤电化运一体化布局，铸就央企高分红典范 周期/煤炭开采 中国神华以煤炭业务为核心，积极布局下游电力、铁路、港口、船舶运输和煤 化工领域。煤电路港航化的纵向一体化经营模式、优质丰富的煤炭资源、领先 的产业技术以及强大的财务管理能力是公司的核心竞争力。我们持续看好公司 未来的盈利能力，首次覆盖给予 "强烈推荐"投资评级。 强烈推荐（维持） 当前股价：37.4 元 基础数据 证券研究报告 | 公司深度报告 2025 年 07 月 21 日 | 总股本（百万股） | 19869 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 16491 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 743.1 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 616.8 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 21.8 | | ROE（TTM） | 12.6 | | 资产负债率 | 23.7% | | 主要股东 | 国家能源投资集团有限责任 | | 主要股东持股比例 | 69.52公司% | 股价表现 | % | 1m | 6m | 12m | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | ...

证券研究报告 公用事业 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 20 日 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 戴映炘 SAC：S1350524080002 daiyingxin@huayuanstock.com 邓思平 SAC：S1350524070003 dengsiping@huayuanstock.com 邱达治 SAC：S1350525050001 qiudazhi@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 重视港股电力设备核心资产 6 月能源数据分析 风电设备：（1）风机快速大型化导致新产品的推出周期大幅变短，而大型电力设备的新产品利润率此时 通常会走低（前期更注重份额且成本不易控制）；（2）整机环节集中度持续走高且无新竞争者进入足以 证明风电整机壁垒够高。当前风机大型化速度显著放缓，因此我们看好风电整机利润改善。 投资分析意见：重视港股电力设备核心资产投资机会，煤电核准强度超出预期，抽蓄建设维持高位，风 电需求稳 ...

重要消息 财政部、税务总局调整超豪华小汽车消费税。 美国众议院通过加密货币法案。 隔夜中概股大涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨1.23%。 发布会预告： 上午10时：国新办举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会，介绍"十四五"商务高 质量发展成就。 下午3时：国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍2025年上半年工业和信息化发展情况。 重要的消息有哪些 1．财政部、税务总局7月17日发布《关于调整超豪华小汽车消费税政策的公告》（下称《公告》），将超 豪华小汽车征收门槛从"每辆零售价格130万元"下调为"每辆零售价格90万元"，自2025年7月20日起执 行。在具体征收环节上，《公告》区分了不同动力类型的超豪华小汽车——纯电动、燃料电池等没有气缸 容量（排气量，下同）的仅在零售环节征收消费税；有气缸容量的超豪华小汽车继续在生产（进口）环节 和零售环节分别征收消费税。总体而言，尽管征收门槛整体降低，但纯电动、燃料电池等没有气缸容量的 超豪华小汽车需征收的消费税将低于有气缸容量的超豪华小汽车。《公告》还明确，对于纳税人销售二手 超豪华小汽车，将不征收消费税。 2．国务院新闻办公室7月17日下午举行新闻发布会，介绍上半年 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company's coal-fired power generation volume decreased by 3.46% year-on-year in Q2, but the decline was significantly narrower compared to Q1. Gas-fired power generation increased by 9.16% year-on-year. The average on-grid electricity price in Q2 was 0.482 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 0.017 yuan/kWh year-on-year. The average price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal fell by 216.84 yuan/ton year-on-year, which will effectively alleviate the pressure from the decline in volume and price, leading to an expected improvement in coal-fired power performance in Q2. The rapid growth of renewable energy generation, driven by continuous capacity expansion, is also a positive factor for the company's performance outlook [2][12]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q2 2025, the company achieved an on-grid electricity volume of 99.049 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 1.44%. However, the total on-grid electricity volume for the first half of 2025 was 205.683 billion kWh, a decrease of 2.37% year-on-year. The average on-grid settlement price for the first half of 2025 was 485.27 yuan/MWh, down 2.69% year-on-year [6]. Cost and Pricing Analysis - The overall coal price has shown a downward trend in 2025, with the average price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal at 631.61 yuan/ton in Q2, down 216.84 yuan/ton year-on-year. This significant reduction in costs is expected to alleviate the pressure from declining volume and price, leading to an improvement in the company's coal-fired power performance [12][12]. Renewable Energy Growth - The company added 1.0248 million kW of wind power and 2.8028 million kW of solar power in Q2 2025. By the end of June 2025, the total installed capacity for wind and solar power is expected to reach 20.04 million kW and 24.17 million kW, representing year-on-year growth of 21.31% and 60.18%, respectively. The rapid growth in renewable energy generation is anticipated to support stable performance in the company's renewable energy business [12][12]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 0.78 yuan, 0.84 yuan, and 0.91 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 9.02, 8.40, and 7.79 [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the power equipment industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The thermal power installed capacity has seen a significant year-on-year increase, with a delivery peak expected this year. In the first five months of this year, China added 17.55 million kilowatts of thermal power capacity, a substantial increase of approximately 45% compared to the same period last year [4] - The approval of coal power projects is expected to maintain a high level, with projections indicating that the approved capacity for coal power will exceed 80 GW for the year [4] - The growth in load demand is anticipated to outpace electricity consumption growth, driven by the increasing electricity demand from the tertiary sector and urban residents [4] - The need for traditional power sources like coal and nuclear power will persist due to the instability of renewable energy sources [4] - The demand for coal power replacement and upgrades is expected to continue expanding, with the implementation of the "New Generation Coal Power Upgrade Special Action Implementation Plan (2025-2027)" [4] - Pumped storage approvals are increasing, with the cumulative installed capacity expected to exceed 62 GW by 2025 and 120 GW by 2030 [4] - The total orders for pumped storage turbines are projected to reach approximately 150 billion yuan, with companies like Harbin Electric and Dongfang Electric expected to maintain high growth rates in their water power orders [4] Summary by Sections Section: Industry Performance - The coal power approval volume remains high, with significant increases in installed capacity expected in the coming years [4] Section: Investment Analysis - The sustained high approval volume for coal power and the increasing peak load demand indicate a long-term underestimated demand for coal power [4] - Companies such as Harbin Electric, Dongfang Electric (A+H), and Shanghai Electric are recommended for investment opportunities [4]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for Shaanxi Coal Industry [2][69] Core Views - Shaanxi Coal Industry focuses on building a "coal-electricity integration" development model, enhancing operational stability and profitability through strategic acquisitions and investments [3][11][69] - The company has shown resilience in performance despite declining coal prices, with stable revenue and profit growth [27][28][69] - The upcoming summer coal demand and regulatory changes are expected to support a rebound in coal prices, positively impacting the company's performance [12][59] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Shaanxi Coal Industry is the only large-scale listed coal enterprise in Shaanxi, primarily engaged in coal mining, washing, transportation, and sales [3][24] - The company is backed by Shaanxi Coal Group, which holds 65.25% of its shares [3][24] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 1841.45 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.77%, and a net profit of CNY 223.60 billion, up 5.28% [27][28] - In Q1 2025, despite a 0.71% decline in revenue to CNY 401.62 billion, net profit rose by 3.29% to CNY 48.05 billion [28][69] Resource and Production - The company has abundant coal resources, with a total resource volume of 17.931 billion tons and a mining life of over 70 years [4][38] - In 2024, coal production reached a historical high of 170.4846 million tons, a 4.13% increase year-on-year [43][44] Railway Infrastructure - The company has developed a self-operated railway network to support its coal business, enhancing logistics and market reach [5][52] - In 2023, railway transport volume was 167.1896 million tons, a 35.21% increase, while in 2024, it slightly decreased to 166.2825 million tons [5][52] Electricity Business - The acquisition of Shaanxi Coal Power in 2024 has enabled the company to implement a "coal-electricity integration" model, enhancing profitability [11][54] - In 2024, total electricity generation was 37.615 billion kWh, a 4.41% increase, with electricity revenue of CNY 16.176 billion [11][54] Investment and Dividends - The company plans to significantly increase capital expenditure in 2025 to CNY 135.59 billion, with a focus on electricity projects [61][69] - The company maintains a high dividend payout, with total cash dividends reaching CNY 13.070 billion in 2024, representing 58.45% of net profit [12][64]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The acquisition of assets has a clear price, and the three-year performance commitment ensures future profitability [6] - The acquisition is expected to enhance earnings per share by 17.65%, with a projected net profit increase for 2024 [8] - The company has a strong coal-electricity integration, which establishes a stable profit margin and supports dividend commitments [8] Financial Summary - The company's market capitalization is approximately 27,869.81 million RMB, with a closing price of 4.27 RMB per share [4] - The projected revenue for 2023 is 22,525 million RMB, with a slight decline expected in subsequent years [7] - The net profit for 2024 is estimated at 2,325 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.98% [7] - The company plans to distribute at least 70% of its distributable profits as dividends from 2025 to 2027, with a projected dividend per share of no less than 0.1 RMB [8] - The projected price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for 2025 is 11.99, indicating a favorable valuation [7]

Summary of Conference Call Records Company Overview - The conference call discusses China Shenhua Energy Company, which operates in multiple sectors including coal, power generation, coal chemical, and transportation [1][2]. Key Financial Metrics - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 338.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 58.6 billion yuan, down 1.7% year-on-year [1]. - In Q1 2024, revenue was 69.5 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year decline of 41% compared to over 80 billion yuan in Q1 2023 [2]. - The total profit for Q1 2025 is projected to decline by 16.6% [4]. Coal Industry Insights - The coal price has significantly decreased, with the current market price falling below the production and sales costs, impacting overall performance [2]. - The production volume reached 327 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while sales volume was 459 million tons, supported by policy measures [2]. - The average spot sales price was 617 yuan per ton, down 1.8% year-on-year [3]. Cost and Profitability - The sales cost increased by 1.45% year-on-year, with self-produced coal costs remaining stable at 179 yuan per ton [3]. - The gross profit margin decreased by 2 percentage points to 30% [3]. - The transportation segment saw a decline in gross profit margins due to rising costs, with railway transport turnover increasing by 0.9% [5]. Power Generation Performance - The power generation segment showed resilience, with profits increasing by 2% in 2024, driven by a 5.3% increase in electricity consumption [4]. - However, Q1 2024 saw a decline in total power generation and consumption due to seasonal demand fatigue [4]. Future Outlook and Risks - The company is focusing on new projects in the coal and power sectors, with significant capital expenditures planned [7]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 2.72, 2.80, and 2.77 yuan, respectively [8]. - Risks include macroeconomic uncertainties, insufficient domestic demand, and potential impacts from state-owned enterprise reforms [8]. Dividend Policy - The company declared a dividend of 2.26 yuan per share for 2024, with a payout ratio of 76.5%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.3 percentage points [7]. Market and Policy Environment - The company is actively managing its market value and has room for growth despite current challenges [9]. - The credit rating for coal-related businesses remains high, indicating low default risk, although the sector is cyclical [10]. Conclusion - The conference call highlighted the challenges faced by China Shenhua Energy in the coal and power sectors, while also emphasizing the company's strategic focus on new projects and maintaining a strong dividend policy amidst a fluctuating market environment [11].

Core Viewpoint - The successful completion of the 168-hour full-load trial operation of Unit 3 of the Jiangsu Changzhou Company, a subsidiary of the State Energy Group, marks its official commercial operation, ahead of schedule by 44 days, significantly contributing to the region's energy structure optimization and power supply stability [1] Group 1: Project Overview - The second phase of the project will enable an annual power generation capacity of 16 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for approximately 25% of Changzhou's total electricity consumption [1] - The project is part of Jiangsu's "14th Five-Year Plan" and focuses on integrating advanced technologies to achieve safety, efficiency, flexibility, cleanliness, low carbon emissions, and intelligence [1] Group 2: Technological Innovations - The project features six major technological innovations, including the first domestic application of a fully indigenous nuclear power iDCS control system, high-efficiency flexible heat recovery technology, and real-time health assessment technology for the entire lifecycle of the unit [1][2] - The iDCS control system achieves 100% domestic chip and software production, enhancing security and supporting various intelligent computing and data analysis methods [2] Group 3: Operational Efficiency - The high-efficiency flexible heat recovery technology improves temperature management under low-load conditions, reducing coal consumption by over 6.0 grams per kilowatt-hour and lowering the plant's electricity consumption rate by approximately 2 percentage points [2] - The integration of "multi-route storage and energy powder storage" technology significantly reduces the time required for switching coal types and powder production, enhancing the unit's responsiveness to grid demands [3] - The unit's ability to adaptively start and stop under all operating conditions has been improved, increasing accuracy and reliability while reducing manual intervention [3] - The use of waste heat recovery technology from cooling water enhances energy efficiency and opens new pathways for waste heat utilization [3] - The real-time health assessment technology combines digital twin and industrial internet technologies to monitor critical components, addressing performance degradation prediction challenges [4]